Which country if Russian Revolution fails would become communist ?
- Thread starter Olmeka
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And the USA are the biggest power behind the decolonisation process. Plus, how would they come to communism, since there is no ideolog of communist state? When communism is a radical and largely obsolete ideology of Euopean Left its! allure would be much less.
The emergence of a communist state was not a historical imperative, much as Marxists believe otherwise. Its' victory in Russia was a matter of chance and abnormal conditions. It came at time when Workers' Movement still lived and it promised a solution to woes of industrial capitalism. BY the 1950's the social problem has moved elsewhere in Europe and America and TTL communism was never adapted for non-industrial societies. It still claims that industrial capitalism is a necessary phase of evolution of state. It lacks Leninists doctrines.
Before 1917, Kun was a social democrat. However, a failed Russian revolution could have radicalised him just as much as a successful one.
I'd say a central European country- Germany, Austria, Hungary- after defeat in WW1. But such a regime wouldn't last very long, as the Allies would promptly invade.
Hungary - did OTL with minimal Russian influence - got squashed.
Germany- why would it succed iTTL when it did not succed iOTL with loads of Russian money?
Austria- similar.
How does non-existence of Soviet Russia change the dynamic in other states in favour of communist parties (which there were none at the time of Great October Socialist Revolution)?
flaja
Banned
By Marxian standards Russia was not a successful example of communism either. According to the Communist Manifesto the end result of communism is a trans-ethnic society without either nation state or government. The U.S.S.R. never made it to the no-government phase or the trans-national phase (Russians call World War II the Great Patriotic War; they fought the Germans because they were Germans, not because the Germans weren’t communists).
flaja
Banned
The movements to expel colonial powers were political movements. The major factor that leads to communism must be economic. Communism is a struggle between the ultra-rich and ultra-poor. In an anti-colonial struggle the ultra-rich and the ultra-poor would more likely be united against the colonial occupiers, not fighting each other.
flaja
Banned
How is colonialism opposed to capitalism? Something like mercantilism may be anti-free trade, but it is not anti-capitalistic.
Colonialism is all about capitalism. I think he meant the independance seekers in colonies were anti-capitalist.
Anyway, to the question..No one really. Though communist parties may well do better in elections.
Ireland.
Lenin beleived that a Communist Revolution would take place in Ireland before one took place in Russia. The British were shitting themselves about this sort of thing in the 1870-95 period, and Communism was a byword for Irish Nationalism (that term wasn't in use till around 1900). All of the leaders of rebellions such as the Fenians and the White Boys were Socialists, and the huge class divide and Land Ownership Problems are breeding ground for ideas such as wealth redistribution and public ownership. The only factor preventing the type of Communism seen in Russia is probably the great Religious influence there, however, I'm sure Religion can be worked into Communism, and of course, you could argue Russia was highly religious before the revolution. The counter argument of course being, the Religion was state endorsed in Russia whilst the Religion was kept alive by the public through great difficulty in Ireland.
Lenin beleived that a Communist Revolution would take place in Ireland before one took place in Russia. The British were shitting themselves about this sort of thing in the 1870-95 period, and Communism was a byword for Irish Nationalism (that term wasn't in use till around 1900). All of the leaders of rebellions such as the Fenians and the White Boys were Socialists, and the huge class divide and Land Ownership Problems are breeding ground for ideas such as wealth redistribution and public ownership. The only factor preventing the type of Communism seen in Russia is probably the great Religious influence there, however, I'm sure Religion can be worked into Communism, and of course, you could argue Russia was highly religious before the revolution. The counter argument of course being, the Religion was state endorsed in Russia whilst the Religion was kept alive by the public through great difficulty in Ireland.
My guess would be Italy: seems to me they came within shouting distance of succeeding at least once. If they did manage to win, one suspects it wouldn't be a very doctrinaire regime; rather, it would be (by communist standards, anyhow) a fairly easygoing regime. My sense is: think about a really laid-back Tito and you may just about have it right. Spain might be a reasonable second choice, had the Loyalists succeeded. Had that happen, Spain's foreign policy of the early 1930s--to stay isolated safely behind the Pyrenees--would have been in effect a lot longer.
Sorry to disappoint, but you can forget about communist Middle East. A central tenant of communism is atheism. At the very least secularism. I don't think the Mullahs are going to take "religion is the opiate of the people" too well.
My vote goes to France, Spain, Italy, Greece. Mediterranean cultures are quite fond of socialism in general.
My vote goes to France, Spain, Italy, Greece. Mediterranean cultures are quite fond of socialism in general.
Superdude
Banned
Doubtful - though the Communists managed to acquire a great deal of influence during the Civil War, it was due to Soviet influence, not a homegrown movement. If the loyalists win, Spain would be rather more federalist with different regions varying widely from one another in their economic policies.
bard32
Banned
Countries immediately bordering Russia. Finland, Norway, Sweden, Poland,
and Romania, six countries in Europe. In Asia, China, Outer Mongolia, which used to be part of China, until 1922, India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Any more?
Why? How? When?
People are too stuck on some country going communist. This is not a challange. Take effects of failed Great October Socialist Revolution and see what effects it have, and follow them to see if there are any communist countries anywhere. Any sensible answer is a good one, but saying "France/Italy/Spain/China/Cuba will be, because it was close OTL" really stretches it.
It kind of depends the form this failure takes.
Are we saying that, say, Lenin and co. attempt to seize power as OTL, but are handily defeated by supporters of the Kerensky government?
Or that the October (actually November) Revolution succeeds in the short term, but is ultimately defeated in the Civil War?
If the second option, how much is due to foreign intervention, and how much to the efforts of the White forces?
All these things have different effects. Without a more specific initial scenario, it's very difficult to say what might have happened. Having said that, in almost any scenario I can see the Russian revolutionaries being regarded as heroic martyrs to the cause - much as those revolutionaries themselves thought of the Paris Commune.
Are we saying that, say, Lenin and co. attempt to seize power as OTL, but are handily defeated by supporters of the Kerensky government?
Or that the October (actually November) Revolution succeeds in the short term, but is ultimately defeated in the Civil War?
If the second option, how much is due to foreign intervention, and how much to the efforts of the White forces?
All these things have different effects. Without a more specific initial scenario, it's very difficult to say what might have happened. Having said that, in almost any scenario I can see the Russian revolutionaries being regarded as heroic martyrs to the cause - much as those revolutionaries themselves thought of the Paris Commune.
bard32
Banned
Finland was almost taken over by the Soviet Union. That's a fact. The Whites
won the Finnish Civil War.
Germany possibly. Some 3rd world countries, especially in Africa, where philosophies of communal ownership can be integrated with local tradition are possiblities also.
The Russian Revolution basically killed the socialist movement in the US. While it's too stable to ever fall to communism, the socialists could maybe have become a major political force during the Great Depression.
The Russian Revolution basically killed the socialist movement in the US. While it's too stable to ever fall to communism, the socialists could maybe have become a major political force during the Great Depression.
Seconding Hungary.
If there is no Russian Revolution, the answer might be Italy, as I understand the Fascists emerged as a counter-revolutionary movement--without the Soviets to scare them into action, you might get Mussolini the Leftist in charge.
Argentina under Peron was at least socialist, although it would never be a truly hardcore communist state. This is late 40s though.
If the Socialist Party was so big in the USA in the 1860's, why didn't it run its first Presidential candidate until 1904? I think you are mixing history with fantasy here. Lincoln did write to Marx...in a Harry Turtledove book. Marx wrote to Lincoln a latter of congratulations on his second election, but I don't think its enough to call them pen pals. There may have been a few socialists in the US in 1860, but not millions.
Torqumada
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No victorious Bolsheviks ITTL. The Finland did not became communist OTL, that is a fact. How is it going to become communist with defeat of communism in Russia?
Quite interesting.