After the fall of USSR, 25 million ethnic Russians would be outside our borders, so it gives us many opportunities to expand to protect the Russian minority, besides we need to secure our hold on the post-Soviet sphere as quickly as possible to prevent Western and Chinese interference\
Seconded, though i have to Ask if we're going to be doing any... ahem... Border Readjustments in the future.
In any case, priority number one is actually transitioning our economy into a better system, WITHOUT causing the economy of Russia to be ruled by the oligarchs.
A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation
- Thread starter panpiotr
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I'm wondering how much the situation in both the USA and China would differ from OTL if Yeltsin does not get elected. Imagine how many butterflies it would provoke
Also it would be interesting what our geopolitical strategy would be, as we will be locked between two superpowers of USA and China. Both sides will really really want to have strong Russia on their side
What's with you all wanting some "better future" or "good ending" when we have the option to go insane?
Central Asia and Belarus should be done deal with New Union treaty, Ukraine is tricky but honestly I prefer to try peaceful integration into new Union down the line, with possibly some referendum for Crimea.
Baltics are interesting, on one side they don't have quite big Russian population so some sort of resettlement with reparations can be arranged, on other hand them joining Nato is unacceptable, or if it happens it would significantly damage relations with the West.
Azerbaijan? Honestly I'm willing to throw Armenia under bus, they chose independence outright while Azerbaijan changed its tune after the coup. If 1992 Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict still happens i say we back Azerbaijan in exchange for them joining the union as full-fledged member. Puls they have oil and gas, so it's easy choice.
I'm leaning towards benevolent neutrality for China. Otl China had shown to be a lot more accommodating to Russian interests and generally doesn't seek much besides, well benevolent neutrality and economic cooperation.
USA on second hand is quite likely to expand in ex Warsaw pact countries as both Russia and China are weak atm and they will be in their unipolar moments. Not to mention the fact that they are a lot more confrontational than China. But yea some sort of neutrality should do.
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We should focus on integration of Ukraine later down the road, once the New Union is solidified and the Russian economy really gets 'going'. I'd argue the year 2000 is a very solid goal. I'd also argue we should make a Defensive Pact in a similar vein to NATO, "Eurasian Defense Pact" or something.
As per Armenia, absolutely agree with there. They're diplomatically isolated, and supporting the party with far more potential is quite a good idea.
The Baltic states I don't think they'd have good relations with us (given how we did annex and rule over them for some 50 years), I'd argue a good olive branch to make would be to outright return territories they lost to us. We'll have to rebuild relations one step at a time, and mend the fence. We should also give recognition to Soviet crimes against them, such as ethnic cleansings.
Honestly we only need them to be neutral, on their own they are pretty insignificant so letting them go is fine. Generally even as part of Nato, it's not weather Baltic States will join Nato, it's about weather Nato will receive Baltic States, that ball is in USAs court , as is our future relationship and even then it's US tax payers that will foot the bill for Baltic defense so making concessions to the Baltics makes no sense as Poland that's next door to us as well will probably join NATO so geopolitical situation even with friendly Baltics will be the same and if they join EU? Well EU has interests to keep relations friendly.
Regarding giving up territories, outright no. I'm against any territorial concessions (part of those belong to Belarus and lets not forget that they already have some territories with Russian minority which they can keep). Same as any form of concession really, basically anything unpopular at home, eventually it's in their interests to normalize ties but if they don't we have luxury to just ignore them.
I'm of opinion that we aren't in such position where we need to make concessions as we only need "normal " relationship. Like and dislike have no place in geopolitics and if we acknowledge something against them we must do so against others. To sum it up I'm in favor of ground zero relationship, Soviet Union is gone and so it payed for its crimes. Russia itself was member of USSR and had suffered just as much at the hands of Soviet government (including territorial loss) while people of Russia had no influence on decision of Soviet government.
Regarding defense Pact? New Union is planned to have unified army so it should have the same function as military pact. Of course I'm in favor of strategic autonomy for Russia where it has its own army and in exchange every other member states gets its own army. But having its own army doesn't mean that we won't defend other member states, or vice versa, instead of creating separate defense treaty I'm more in favor of adding territorial integrity clause to New Union and defense clause , basically New Union is confederation and territories of its members are its territories. That means attacking one member is attacking all members, or better said attacking New Union itself.
Just think of it as more centralized EU (which New Union was planned to be) that handles its own defense. Basically think of New Union as highly decentralized state that will defend itself if attacked.
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I doubt they will let us into NATO, EU maybe, but I feel we will be in Turkey's situation
I would say it's reverse, joining NATO is far more likely than joining EU as Russia would come to dominate the EU quite quickly if its led good. But its more likely that we aren't allowed in both.
And honestly it's better to lead in New Union opposed to having to compromise in EU.
Joining EU and NATO is almosr impossible as out entry would be blocked by Poland and Baltic States, besides its better to be a leader of our own military alliance. As for the EU - it would be a total Russo - German domination, so also France and UK would be completely against it
Honestly the best timeline for Russia would be to somehow get European countries into killing NATO, and even the EU. I don't think either of these is ever going to happen but if they do it would allow extreme amounts of Russian influence to seep into West Europe, and reaffirm Russian control over the East despite the fall of the Union. The best countries to target for this kind of gain would be classical majors (France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and maybe Spain.) For Germany specifically, assisting in getting East Germany up to the standards of West Germany could probably buy us a lot of good will (even today East Germany lags behind the West in key factors, most notably economic.)
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