WI Napoléon II: Bourbon Hostage?

The problem, for the Bourbons, is that no matter how much they try to indoctrinate l'Aiglon into royalism, what is the most they can offer him? To be a minister? Advisor to the King? The Bonapartistes will offer him his father's throne. The Bourbons can't compete with that ... and consequently can never truly trust him in the end.
The Bourbons are not trying to turn him into a minister or advisor, though—they are raising him as French prince who will be reared among the Bourbon princes of the new generation. They need not promise him anything but simply raise him among their own as their own. In 1814 the King of Rome is a little boy of three whose world has been completely shattered—formally heir to an empire that dominated both Italy and Germany, he is now a virtual orphan: his father languishes in exile and will likely never see him again, while his mother is an easily influenced dilettante who cares more for her passions than her own child. As a young child, he can be melded by the Bourbons as they please. If he sees the Bourbons as his family and the princes of his age as cousins or brothers, then their work has succeeded. He is a potent symbol that represents a possible reconciliation between the monarchy / ancien régime and the revolution / modern France.

The Bonapartistes were not very influential in the period of the Restoration. The French were tired of war and they desired peace. That doesn't necessarily mean they wanted Louis XVIII back, but he was considered the best option. While Napoleon was able to reestablish himself briefly in the Hundred Days IOTL, mainly because of Louis XVIII's growing unpopularity and blunders that had been made during the First Restoration. After his final fall Bonapartisme was firmly on the outlier of the political spectrum. Elections for Napoleon's Chamber of Representatives in 1815 led to an overwhelmingly liberal chamber and only about 80 or so members were considered out and out Bonapartistes. They were fully on the fringe throughout the Second Restoration along with the Republicans, with the major parties being the Ultra-Royalistes / Ultras, Doctrinaires, and the Libérals / Indépendants.

Because the political opposition was essentially repressed during the Restoration, those upon the fringes such as the Bonapartistes and the Republicans were driven underground and into secret societies. The Bonapartistes and those opposed to the Restoration were intermingled within the Charbonnerie who are well known in Italy, but also spread into France starting in 1818. At their height, they had 20,000 members in Paris alone, and were spread across twenty-five different departments. The movement was compartmentalized into different groups, with the higher groups (Haute Sales) directly the lower groups (Private Sales) who generally had twenty members. Those in the lower groups did not know those who were within the higher groups, and none of the lower groups worked with or communicated each other. It was most active from 1820-1823, primarily attempting to carry out plots that were quashed without too much trouble by the government. By 1822, it's main leaders were dispersed and it faded into obscurity shortly thereafter.

I expect even in ATL that the Bonapartistes will likely have a rough time in the 1820s regardless. Once the King of Rome is an adult, that is where things would get interesting. IOTL, the movement sort of disintegrated in the 1830s because the July Monarchy had sort of co-opted the movement. Many of the important political and military personnel of the First Empire who had been sidelined by the Restoration returned to political prominence. Napoleon II's death was just another nail in the coffin. By the mid-1830s, none of the Bonapartist princes had any political aims aside from Louis-Napoleon, who of course accomplished nothing until Louis-Philippe's monarchy collapsed.

Anyways: the Bonapartistes will of course desire to see the King of Rome as Napoleon II, seated upon his father's throne. I'd say the main issue is that is nothing more than an empty promise, as they sit on the outliers of the political spectrum with little influence and no ability to make said promise come true. The promise of a throne is nice, but it's just that, a promise. The Bourbons, on the other hand, will be in a position to offer the King of Rome something tangible—and depending on how he grows up and how his relationships are with the various members of the royal family, that may be the offer that he truly desires.
 
So to this question ( Napy's period on Elba ) I can tell you some curiosities about it : first of all there are his residences, Villa dei Mulini ( the town one, located in the historic center of Portoferraio ) and Villa San Martino ( the larger, surrounded by greenery, a few kilometers from the island's capital towards Procchio - Marina di Campo ) then we have the splendid Teatro dei Vigilanti

at the beginning his relationship with the population was very tense, in fact before his arrival he asked to control the circulation of weapons owned by local veterans of the Grand Army, he also tried to make friends of the locals, with the presentation of the new flag ( designed by himself ) white with a red band, inspired by the grand ducal merchant flag, to which three golden bees were added ( the French cockade will also be replaced with another with the new colors ) all with the aim of decreasing resentment towards the French ( which was on the rise ) demonstrating that he would arrive as one of them rather than as a foreign ruler ( even if it must be said that Napoleon, as a precaution, secretly landed at the Warehouses to carry out a brief inspection, and only on the day following May 4th 1814 at 3.30 pm he officially landed for the first time in the main port of his new dominion )

among his main works there was a complete reform of the administration and the local Navy ( given that technically Napoleon ruled over almost the entire Tuscan archipelago, excluding the island of Giglio and Capraia ) so was important for communication and the economy of the principality, as soon as he arrived he transformed Portoferraio into a large open-air construction site : an underground conduit was built to avoid flooding of the streets ( which were widened, widened and paved, also to adapt them to the passage of the imperial carriage ) he gave instructions for the exploitation of the mines of Rio ( which had fallen into disuse ) I dedicate great attention to the improvement of the road system to connect the various island towns to each other, public hygiene also receives its attention, so much so as to require the owners of houses without latrines to take action in this regard within two months, otherwise they would have to pay a heavy fine, finally, in true Napy style, he wasted no time in forming and training a tiny army to be used to fight banditry and as a police force



However, I would love to see Napoleon making a mess in Greece, since by doing so he would solve two problems in one: first of all he would remove one of his personal regrets, secondly it would force the great powers to include the Ottomans in the system of the Council of Europe with at least 30 years of advance ( given that his actions in the Balkans will certainly create huge discussions between the powers, it is that they cannot easily be resolved by giving Greece back to the Ottomans and then pretending nothing happened regarding Russian policies in the region ( which in this period were based on strengthening the Danubian principalities, Serbia and any possible minor rivals of the Sublime Gate )

Resolving the land / property ownership question earlier would perhaps help some.

The ideal would be a reconciliation between the émigrés and the idea of emigration vs. those that stayed behind and the idea of the revolution. Obviously there's no real way to make the émigrés whole again: at best, as Louis XVIII did IOTL, he can release whatever émigré properties and lands which are still held by the state, but would only be a small section of the émigrés who were effected. The Indemnity Bill wasn't a bad idea, as it helped settle ownership questions and attempted to make the émigrés 'whole' again, but one can see why giving them almost 1 billion francs in government bonds that would eventually have to be repaid out might cause issues: it essentially meant that when they were paid out, the rest of France would be footing the bill.

If at all possible, Louis XVIII should try and temper extravagance of his initial court. In his initial return, he reestablished the old Maison du Roi as it had been in 1789, and it's positions were essentially reserved for the old nobility, with émigrés having priority. The Marquis of Dreux-Brézé even harbored plans with Blacas to restore the ettiquette of Versailles in all of it's minutiae within the Tuileries. There was also a rush for nobles to attempt to claim military titles: Louis XVIII commissioned close to 400 general officers, all émigrés, and many of whom had never ever commanded troops in battle. The main reason they wanted such commissions was primarily for the right to wear a military uniform at court, rather than long trousers worn about town, which they considered bourgeois. Uniforms at court had been popularized by Napoleon's court, but it was also the typical uniform of the princes at this point too.

The former Imperial Guard should be dealt with. Napoleon uttered that if he were Louis XVIII, he was absolutely not retain his guard because he (Napoleon) was the only one who could handle them. His idea was that Louis XVIII should grant pensions to the non-coms and privates, and offer promotions and transfers to those wanting to stay in the army. Instead, Louis XVIII turned the former guard into grenadiers and chasseurs and they were scattered about France's provincial garrisons. The former officers were allowed to keep a rank higher than their assignments, but they were put on half-pay.

Louis XVIII also attempted to restore the old units of the Maison Militaire. He and other royalists were obsessed with the idea that the monarchy might not have fallen if Louis XVI had surrounded himself with a strong and faithful guard. This plan wasn't fully carried out before the Hundred Days, but many of the former ceremonial units were reestablished with their old names and even old uniforms, which would be primarily staffed by émigrés as it was an easy way to reward them without disturbing the actual army or civil administration. The Cent-Suisse were restored, and in September 1814 a treaty was even signed with Bern to provide five Swiss regiments: some 6000 men that received the rank and pay of officers which cost Louis XVIII some 20 million francs.
thank you both, I will keep those in mind.
The problem, for the Bourbons, is that no matter how much they try to indoctrinate l'Aiglon into royalism, what is the most they can offer him? To be a minister? Advisor to the King? The Bonapartistes will offer him his father's throne. The Bourbons can't compete with that ... and consequently can never truly trust him in the end.
his father's throne, but he's a child of three. As Talleyrand notes to Fouché: France has seldom fared well under a regency. But also, the regent (Marie Louise) and the lieutenant-general of France (Joseph Bonaparte) are both people who couldn't even keep what they had (Lucca, Spain) when they had a loyalist army backing them. Murat is the wild card, because he and his wife both had imperial ambitions for their son, and also, he is the most militarily capable of the imperial family (aside from Eugène, who, while never making marshal and Napoléon described as "the stuff of a colonel, not a general", was far more militarily and politically capable than any of his brothers-in-law less his stepfather).

To your question about what can they offer him that's better than his father's throne? How about a better life than a "lark in a glass box" (as he described his OTL existence)?

The Bourbons are not trying to turn him into a minister or advisor, though—they are raising him as French prince who will be reared among the Bourbon princes of the new generation.
And given Louis XVIII's hatred of the Orléans line, I could genuinely see him using Frankie as a stick to whack them in line with.
They need not promise him anything but simply raise him among their own as their own.
which again, is an improvement on OTL where he was raised as a species of "other"
In 1814 the King of Rome is a little boy of three whose world has been completely shattered—formally heir to an empire that dominated both Italy and Germany, he is now a virtual orphan: his father languishes in exile and will likely never see him again, while his mother is an easily influenced dilettante who cares more for her passions than her own child. As a young child, he can be melded by the Bourbons as they please. If he sees the Bourbons as his family and the princes of his age as cousins or brothers, then their work has succeeded.
I don't find this too crazy, actually. Napoléon (at the end of his reign) took to referring to Louis XVI as "our most beloved uncle". Explaining to little Frankie that Madame Royal is the daughter of "our most beloved uncle" would likely silence any questions from him about who Madame Grudge (as the Bonapartists dubbed her) is.

Also, OTL he was raised in isolation (too old for the emperor's other grandchildren, too young for his children). Here he has his literal cousins (Louis Philippe's children), Berri's bastards with Amy Brown, likely Hortense's children will be worked in at the seams as well*.

*Hortense herself told Louis XVIII- in the only interview she ever had with him (pre-100 Days)- that she had every intention of trusting his government. She appealed for his help because she wished for her sons to be raised in the new regime rather than raised by their father in Rome to support the old regime. Then she went off to take the sea air (for her health rather than attempting to flee**), leaving her sons under royalist watch. Hortense might not have trusted the Bourbons as much as she said she did, but if it means that she doesn't have to give up her sons to an ex-husband she had come to despise (even Napoléon supported her in this decision), I suspect she'll be decked out in Bourbon cockades, shouting "vive le roi".
**although when she'd heard Napoléon had landed, her first idea was to take the boys and flee to Martinique. She even made inquiries at Le Havre about booking passage. Unfortunately, there were no ships due to depart until later in the month.

He is a potent symbol that represents a possible reconciliation between the monarchy / ancien régime and the revolution / modern France.

The Bonapartistes were not very influential in the period of the Restoration. The French were tired of war and they desired peace. That doesn't necessarily mean they wanted Louis XVIII back, but he was considered the best option. While Napoleon was able to reestablish himself briefly in the Hundred Days IOTL, mainly because of Louis XVIII's growing unpopularity and blunders that had been made during the First Restoration. After his final fall Bonapartisme was firmly on the outlier of the political spectrum. Elections for Napoleon's Chamber of Representatives in 1815 led to an overwhelmingly liberal chamber and only about 80 or so members were considered out and out Bonapartistes. They were fully on the fringe throughout the Second Restoration along with the Republicans, with the major parties being the Ultra-Royalistes / Ultras, Doctrinaires, and the Libérals / Indépendants.
irony being that most Bonapartists (not the Luciens and Plon-Plon type republicans, but the moderates) were actually closer to Legitimists than the Orléanists. They simply differed over whose legitimacy.
Because the political opposition was essentially repressed during the Restoration, those upon the fringes such as the Bonapartistes and the Republicans were driven underground and into secret societies. The Bonapartistes and those opposed to the Restoration were intermingled within the Charbonnerie who are well known in Italy, but also spread into France starting in 1818. At their height, they had 20,000 members in Paris alone, and were spread across twenty-five different departments. The movement was compartmentalized into different groups, with the higher groups (Haute Sales) directly the lower groups (Private Sales) who generally had twenty members. Those in the lower groups did not know those who were within the higher groups, and none of the lower groups worked with or communicated each other. It was most active from 1820-1823, primarily attempting to carry out plots that were quashed without too much trouble by the government. By 1822, it's main leaders were dispersed and it faded into obscurity shortly thereafter.

I expect even in ATL that the Bonapartistes will likely have a rough time in the 1820s regardless. Once the King of Rome is an adult, that is where things would get interesting. IOTL, the movement sort of disintegrated in the 1830s because the July Monarchy had sort of co-opted the movement.
not exactly. Even when Joseph Bonaparte inquired from his agents in Paris in 1829-1831, there was no interest in a Bonaparte restoration. And while there were many Napoléonic names (Lannes, Davout, Soult, Mortier) in the July Monarchy's government, the July Monarchy was not what any self-respecting Bonapartist would accept. For the republican left, it was "too monarchical", for the imperialist right, it was "too bourgeois". Had it not been for Louis Philippe's gaffe of the retour des cendres, Bonapartism would likely have joined Jacobitism as a lost cause. It was the retour that lit the spark that led to the establishment of the Second Empire
Anyways: the Bonapartistes will of course desire to see the King of Rome as Napoleon II, seated upon his father's throne. I'd say the main issue is that is nothing more than an empty promise, as they sit on the outliers of the political spectrum with little influence and no ability to make said promise come true. The promise of a throne is nice, but it's just that, a promise. The Bourbons, on the other hand, will be in a position to offer the King of Rome something tangible—and depending on how he grows up and how his relationships are with the various members of the royal family, that may be the offer that he truly desires.
given that both Louis XVIII and Charles X were more than willing to tolerate a Murat regime in Naples and Elisa Bonaparte being allowed to keep Lucca* (rather than Marie Louise), I'd say that they can be extraordinarily flexible if the situation requires.

*their rational was simple: Murat/Elisa's regimes would provide a "third" avenue in Italy. Particularly one to allow French influence. They were not strong enough to maintain their grip without French support (at least for this generation). This was driven by a neatly folding together of Charles X/Angoulême's "imperial" ambitions as well as Louis XVIII's feeling of resentment towards his Bourbon cousins in Spain, Naples and Parma. It was the 100 Days that ruined Murat's, Hortense's, even Joseph's, chances at retaining anything. Metternich told Elisa "no" OTL, but that was pre-Congress of Vienna (which will probably be "slightly" affected given that the French are holding the trump card of Boney the Ogre's heir- Metternich has a smaller stick (pun intended) to threaten the rest of Europe with)
 
any ideas/suggestions for how Metternich not having baby Frankie as a hostage will affect the Congress of Vienna? @isabella @DrakeRlugia


I can certainly see the Bourbons being more inclined to use a ""more aggressive"" strategy from a diplomatic point of view, given that they hold the figure that in Otl could represent a valid alternative to their government ( especially if supported by a foreign government ) here instead they are free from this "bogeyman", therefore more willing to play in putting Prussia, Austria and Russia in conflict with each other to obtain new gains from the conference, they would probably try to support the creation of powers less hostile to it on its border ( therefore I hardly see Prussia obtaining its OTL gains in the Rhineland, I see greater support for the third Germany ( anti-Habsburg and Hohenzollern function ) just as I see a negotiation regarding Italy starting separately with Austria ( 1 ), I could even see support French for the ideas of the future George IV regarding Hanover, finally there will be the huge controversy over the Polish-Saxon crisis, but I imagine that Paris will have a similar position, given that Saxony is a useful anti-Prussian ally as well as one of the most important mid-level actors in Germany, so preserving it would be a good idea, finally considering the interest of the Bourbons in the Levant, I can see them cooperating with Metternich to try to include the Ottoman question in the congress ( but I imagine that to do this, the good Napoleon, when will Basileus / King of the Greeks be proclaimed in a couple of years 😜) for the rest I imagine that they will try to obtain London's support for their ideas, in order to renormalize relations between the two states


1 ) finally I can see them pushing for a permanent garrison in defense of the figure of the Pope in Rome ( so as to compensate for the conspicuous Austrian influence in the area ) or at least a solid local base where they can spread their influence ( maybe Lucca / Parma, in exchange of the Austrian annexation of Modena )
 
Nappy II in greece?! YES PLEASE!


in fact, I think it would be more likely to think that such madness would be more up his alley ( since Napy Sr had a thing with Alexander the Great, one of his biggest regrets in OTL was that he couldn't go to Greece, considering that the Greeks would probably have been the equivalent of the Poles and Italians, in terms of voluntary participation in the support of his government ) therefore I do not exclude that this undertaking would be his last hurrah/legacy to Europe, but that as usual it would profoundly change the region, with a period before him and one after his passage / government
 
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in fact, I think it would be more likely to think that such madness would be more up his alley ( since Napy Sr had a thing with Alexander the Great, one of his biggest regrets in OTL was that he couldn't go to Greece ) therefore I do not exclude that this undertaking would be his last hurrah/legacy to Europe, but that as usual it would profoundly change the region, with a period before him and one after his passage / government
A napoleonic greece sounds amazing! They would be eyeing constantinople hungrily, waiting for the perfect time to strike at the sick man of europe
 
A napoleonic greece sounds amazing! They would be eyeing constantinople hungrily, waiting for the perfect time to strike at the sick man of europe


I doubt it, Napoleon will not want to upset the entire continent again in a spiral of total wars, rather it will have the effect of provoking the inclusion of the Ottomans in the congress of Europe and pushing them towards a more massive modernization than OTL ( indeed he tried to imagine that his intervention will create an "unpleasant" situation for the other Balkan minorities, who would be in the midst viewfinder of Greek nationalism ( I predict that Napy supports some of the ideas of an expanded Rhomanois identity, i.e. all the Orthodox ( non-Romanians ) of the Ottoman Empire are actually Greeks, therefore a massive assimilationist policy ) Russia will not be able to focus on religious identification, because it could not obtain a united front at a local level (since such a Greece would quickly make many enemies locally, but could easily gain the international support, so if Napoleon or the Ottomans or the rest of the congress force St. Petersburg to have to make a choice between who to support as an independent nation, it is obvious that Russia's hands are tied, given that Greece would be the clear favorite of all ( Ottomans included) so by doing so she will be seen as a traitor to her local Slav brothers ) all in all this would be a scenario where Constantinople would potentially gain a stronger hold in the region than OTL, because Russia would literally be screwed from trying any action in its comparisons due to Ottoman participation in the concert of Europe decades in advance and impossibility of having real allies at a local level, but all in all it would be a really interesting scenario to read, instead of the usual Ottoman Empire collapses because it is the sick man of Europe ( as if it were something destined to happen necessarily ) the comical thing about this is that it could be the first Greek revolutionaries themselves who called him to assist them in their cause ( also it cannot be ruled out that Mahmud II, after realizing he could not beat him, offered to recognize him as sovereign in exchange for a hand against common enemies ( Ayan rebels, Serbs, Egyptians, the Russians themselves, etc )
 
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I doubt it, Napoleon will not want to upset the entire continent again in a spiral of total wars, rather it will have the effect of provoking the inclusion of the Ottomans in the congress of Europe and pushing them towards a more massive modernization than OTL ( indeed he tried to imagine that his intervention will create an "unpleasant" situation for the other Balkan minorities, who would be in the midst of Greek nationalism ( I predict that Napy supports some of the ideas of an expanded Rhomanois identity, i.e. all the Orthodox ( non-Romanians ) of the Ottoman Empire are actually Greeks, therefore a massive assimilationist policy ) Russia will not be able to focus on religious identification, because it could not obtain a united front at a local level (since such a Greece would quickly make many enemies locally, but could easily gain the international support, so if Napoleon or the Ottomans or the rest of the congress force St. Petersburg to have to make a choice between who to support as an independent nation, it is obvious that Russia's hands are tied, given that Greece would be the clear favorite of all ( Ottomans included) so by doing so she will be seen as a traitor to her local Slav brothers ) all in all this would be a scenario where Constantinople would potentially gain a stronger hold in the region than OTL, because Russia would literally be screwed from trying any action in its comparisons due to Ottoman participation in the concert of Europe decades in advance and impossibility of having real allies at a local level
True and was meaning in the future.
 
I doubt it, Napoleon will not want to upset the entire continent again in a spiral of total wars, rather it will have the effect of provoking the inclusion of the Ottomans in the congress of Europe and pushing them towards a more massive modernization than OTL ( indeed he tried to imagine that his intervention will create an "unpleasant" situation for the other Balkan minorities, who would be in the midst viewfinder of Greek nationalism ( I predict that Napy supports some of the ideas of an expanded Rhomanois identity, i.e. all the Orthodox ( non-Romanians ) of the Ottoman Empire are actually Greeks, therefore a massive assimilationist policy ) Russia will not be able to focus on religious identification, because it could not obtain a united front at a local level (since such a Greece would quickly make many enemies locally, but could easily gain the international support, so if Napoleon or the Ottomans or the rest of the congress force St. Petersburg to have to make a choice between who to support as an independent nation, it is obvious that Russia's hands are tied, given that Greece would be the clear favorite of all ( Ottomans included) so by doing so she will be seen as a traitor to her local Slav brothers ) all in all this would be a scenario where Constantinople would potentially gain a stronger hold in the region than OTL, because Russia would literally be screwed from trying any action in its comparisons due to Ottoman participation in the concert of Europe decades in advance and impossibility of having real allies at a local level, but all in all it would be a really interesting scenario to read, instead of the usual Ottoman Empire collapses because it is the sick man of Europe ( as if it were something destined to happen necessarily ) the comical thing about this is that it could be the first Greek revolutionaries themselves who called him to assist them in their cause ( also it cannot be ruled out that Mahmud II, after realizing he could not beat him, offered to recognize him as sovereign in exchange for a hand against common enemies ( Ayan rebels, Serbs, Egyptians, the Russians themselves, etc )
A Bonapartist Greece allied to the Turks is an interesting concept. One reason Napoleon I sought a bride from the Romanov dynasty IOTL was, apparently, that he thought joining his lineage to a remote relative of the Palaiologoi was a good idea--going full Byzantine Restorationist would annoy the Turks, but if it's the price for a secure western flank and an ally against Petrograd, they'll grit their teeth and bear it.

There are four big Orthodox nationalities in the Balkans to deal with--Greeks, Serbs, Bulgars, and Romanians. The Second Serb Uprising is going to get going shortly--if Napoleon I runs off to the east, he might find allies among the Serbs, though this would alienate the Turks.
 
therefore I hardly see Prussia obtaining its OTL gains in the Rhineland
given that Louis XVIII-Austria-Britain all made common cause in the Polish Question of OTL, I wonder if Saxony doesn't lose "as badly" as she did OTL. Not necessarily with a "restored Poland", but Prussia doesn't get three quarters of Saxony?

finally considering the interest of the Bourbons in the Levant,
as in the Franco-Ottoman alliance? Or did Louis XVIII have different interests?

maybe Lucca
Louis XVIII's support for either Elisa Bonaparte getting Lucca or Caroline-Murat keeping Naples (both things he and Charles X favoured- albeit for different reasons- OTL) to create a "third Italy"?

Makes me wonder if this would also affect the outcome of the looming Sardinian succession crisis? OTL Metternich favoured Carlo Alberto succeeding for reasons best known to him, but I wonder if, in a less "powerful" position in Italy, Austria is willing to accept the duke of Modena as heir (mostly because the Bourbons were not fans of Carlo Alberto IIRC). But perhaps a compromise can be reached: Modena gets Genoa and the Piedmonte plateau, while France takes what they got under Napoléon III OTL?
 
given that Louis XVIII-Austria-Britain all made common cause in the Polish Question of OTL, I wonder if Saxony doesn't lose "as badly" as she did OTL. Not necessarily with a "restored Poland", but Prussia doesn't get three quarters of Saxony?


as in the Franco-Ottoman alliance? Or did Louis XVIII have different interests?


Louis XVIII's support for either Elisa Bonaparte getting Lucca or Caroline-Murat keeping Naples (both things he and Charles X favoured- albeit for different reasons- OTL) to create a "third Italy"?

Makes me wonder if this would also affect the outcome of the looming Sardinian succession crisis? OTL Metternich favoured Carlo Alberto succeeding for reasons best known to him, but I wonder if, in a less "powerful" position in Italy, Austria is willing to accept the duke of Modena as heir (mostly because the Bourbons were not fans of Carlo Alberto IIRC). But perhaps a compromise can be reached: Modena gets Genoa and the Piedmonte plateau, while France takes what they got under Napoléon III OTL?


so where to start, let's start from the Italian question, as you well pointed out, Louis XVIII will probably try to gain a foothold in Italy ( and I can see him pushing to gain at least Savoy in exchange for support for Modena for the succession in the rest of Sardinia - Piedmont ) so as to balance the Habsburg presence ( which however remains quite stable, at least as long as Franz I remains alive, given that for the majority of his subjects, his being Italian was a plus that favored his government ) as regards Germany , the situation is much more complex, given Prussia's ever-increasing territorial ambitions and desire to punish Napoleonic collaborators in the region ( I can certainly see Saxony being downsized slightly, but not in Otl's draconian manner ) and finally French interests in The Ottoman Empire was a mix between veiled colonial aspirations, the maintenance of the historic alliance with the Sublime Gate in an anti-Russian and Habsburg function and confessional prestige ( in particular in Egypt, North Africa, Lebanon and obviously Jerusalem )

As it is, it will be interesting to see what the Bourbons will do in response to a possible 1830 uprising in the Netherlands ( will they aim to gain Belgium or settle for Wallonia ? )
 
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I can certainly see the Bourbons being more inclined to use a ""more aggressive"" strategy from a diplomatic point of view, given that they hold the figure that in Otl could represent a valid alternative to their government ( especially if supported by a foreign government ) here instead they are free from this "bogeyman", therefore more willing to play in putting Prussia, Austria and Russia in conflict with each other to obtain new gains from the conference, they would probably try to support the creation of powers less hostile to it on its border ( therefore I hardly see Prussia obtaining its OTL gains in the Rhineland, I see greater support for the third Germany ( anti-Habsburg and Hohenzollern function )
Taking an aggressive strategy would be the absolute wrong move, IMO. The other four great powers initially sought to exclude France all together from the Congress. If France starts taking an aggressive tact, it will only verify that the allies were correct in their original assumptions that France ought to be excluded. France has already gotten a pretty good deal from the 1814 Treaty of Paris: 1792 Borders, no indemnity, and no occupational army. While France certainly had concerns with both Prussia and Russia, they worked well enough with Britain and the Austrians, for instance. It would be better for them to work in concert with the British and perhaps the Habsburgs as well to provide a check on Russia and Prussian ambitions, especially where Saxony is concerned. Better to build an alliance with the concert of powers that will work with them than simultaneously pissing off Prussia, Russia, and Austria. God forbid that Napoleon escapes from Elba as he did IOTL—Louis XVIII might not be so lucky the second time around especially if he pursues an aggressive policy at Congress.

France may well well wish for powers less hostile along it's border of the Rhine, but none of the other allies would accept that. Their primary fear was that the creation of weak states along the French border in the Rhine would invariably fall under French influence or domination. Prussia gained the Rhineland primarily because it provided an effective check against French influence and power. France seeking to increase her influence more aggressively after she's just been defeated by a coalition of European powers would only serve to blow up in their face after a time. Even spinning the Rhineland off into an independent kingdom (as suggested during the Polish-Crisis) isn't a really feasible idea, as it would still be inferior to France. Even in a divide and conquer scenario, I cannot see Britain being okay with the creation of a weak state along the Rhine border. The Allies were perfectly okay with returning France into the concert of the Great Powers, but also wanted to check it's influence (hence the united Netherlands + Belgium, Prussian Rhineland, ect).

not exactly. Even when Joseph Bonaparte inquired from his agents in Paris in 1829-1831, there was no interest in a Bonaparte restoration. And while there were many Napoléonic names (Lannes, Davout, Soult, Mortier) in the July Monarchy's government, the July Monarchy was not what any self-respecting Bonapartist would accept. For the republican left, it was "too monarchical", for the imperialist right, it was "too bourgeois". Had it not been for Louis Philippe's gaffe of the retour des cendres, Bonapartism would likely have joined Jacobitism as a lost cause. It was the retour that lit the spark that led to the establishment of the Second Empire
I do not mean that they adopted Bonapartism, but that prominent personalities from the First Empire once more were able to re-enter political life. This didn't just include the major names, but even minor civil servants down to the prefectures. Shortly after the 1830 Revolution, a purge was carried out in the departments against those who refused to take an oath to Louis-Philippe. Those who were purged were typically replaced with those who had come up during the First Empire and would not have been acceptable for such roles during the Restoration.

given that both Louis XVIII and Charles X were more than willing to tolerate a Murat regime in Naples and Elisa Bonaparte being allowed to keep Lucca* (rather than Marie Louise), I'd say that they can be extraordinarily flexible if the situation requires.
Didn't Louis XVIII also forge letters that alleged that Murat continued to support the emperor? Unsure when but I'm assuming in the 1814-1815 period. I know that Britain was rather vocal in Ferdinand IV being restored—likely because of their economic interests in Sicily. Metternich didn't really care either way, unsure about Russia and Prussia.
 
Louis XVIII also forge letters that alleged that Murat continued to support the emperor?
no forgeries were likely necessary, since while Murat had recalled the Neapolitan representative on Elba at Allied insistence, cancelled the allowances of Fouché, MacDonald and Walewski were receiving from the Neapolitan crown, he restored them (at least Walewski's) a few weeks later when Maria Walewska arrived, likely as Napoléon's messenger. Caroline herself was in favour of delaying tactics (even neutrality) rather than active involvement when her brother escaped from Elba, her husband ignored her, putting her in an impossible position.
Prussia gained the Rhineland primarily because it provided an effective check against French influence and power.
it's a little bit more nuanced than that. The Prussian Rhineland after the Congress of Vienna is comparable to Savoyard Sicily after Utrecht: the ones who wanted it didn't/couldn't get it and the ones who got it didn't really want it. The prince of Orange had wanted some/all of the Rhineland and a land corridor to Nassau. However, given his pending nuptials to Princess Charlotte, everyone was afraid of a massive Anglo-Dutch blob (this was apparently also the reason that they opposed George IV's schemes to aggrandize Hannover). So Castlereagh and Metternich said no and told him to take Belgium instead. Prussia wanted Saxony, but Metternich, Castlereagh (or was it the other British dude, something with an 'a'-Aberdeen?) and Talleyrand said no. Unfortunately, Prussia had been promised x-number of inhabitants at the peace talks. And they needed to keep their word (or rather, Emperor Alexander was obliging them to). Cue the territory swap of Saxony for the Rhineland. When that failed, it was decided "to hell with it" and the Rhineland was given to Prussia to make up the aforementioned population numbers
 
@Kellan Sullivan Do you think in this scenario if Nappy stays in Elba to not ruin things for his boy Murat can cling into the throne of naples?
from what I can make out, what started the clock ticking on Murat's regime was that he sent Napoléon birthday wishes in 1814. While wishing fellow sovereigns happy birthday was the "done thing", given that he did it in defiance of the Allied order to break off ties with Elba it looked suspect. Then Maria Walewska and Pauline Bonaparte showing up in Naples in succession afterwards (Maria to re-establish her son's pension from the crown of Naples, not sure why Pauline was there) and being received by the king in person- again, not unheard of, since both were essentially "private"/family matters rather than those of state- made it look like he was conspiring with Nappy. It was why Caroline- who was also guilty of attempting to ride two horses with one ass, reaching out to her mom while talking to Metternich- advised non-involvement.

Unfortunately, the Bonapartes or their allies doing something as banal as birthday wishes to their brother-in-law or attempting to reconcile with their mother was seen as "ooh, they're plotting the emperor's restoration".

As I've said above, Louis XVIII/Charles X were more than willing to leave Murat in place because it suited their purposes (albeit for different reasons). Austria not having Frankie means that they are going to have less leverage on France. Metternich might be forced to accept the Murats.
 
As I've said above, Louis XVIII/Charles X were more than willing to leave Murat in place because it suited their purposes (albeit for different reasons). Austria not having Frankie means that they are going to have less leverage on France. Metternich might be forced to accept the Murats.
Nice. He was one of the best Marshals!
 
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