WI: Woodrow Wilson doesn't run in 1912
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
The United States would have been a socialist utopia.
In all seriousness, a more domestic minded president, assuming TR runs as a Progressive, would likely keep the United States within the Western hemisphere. A policy of de facto isolation would likely continue throughout much of 20th Century, barring an Imperial German invasion of Long Island by the mid-60's.
In all seriousness, a more domestic minded president, assuming TR runs as a Progressive, would likely keep the United States within the Western hemisphere. A policy of de facto isolation would likely continue throughout much of 20th Century, barring an Imperial German invasion of Long Island by the mid-60's.
More like President WJB, he hated Clark, as he felt CC was a tool of Wall Street, and being still popular with the rank and file he could steal the nomination, hell the only reason Wilson got out of second place was Bryan endorsed him. Look at his 3 previous runs, the popular vote exceeds Wilson each time, even with a reduced margin, 1912 is the year for the Democrats to win.
Bryan almost certainly avoids helping the Entente in any manner: money, supplies, and etc., and avoids sending American ships near the war, but if even after all that Germany gets aggressive (which really they would have no need to) then WJB would probably enter the war as a defensive measure.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
Are you saying he didn't run because of Wilson? I assume it had something to do with losing three times.
He would at least try a 4th time, Clark was a Wall Street puppet (in his eyes) and he wouldn't lay down and accept that.
He never did formally "run" but was pretty clearly angling to deadlock the Convention and emerge as a dark horse candidate.
Unfortunately for him, he did it a bit too clumsily. By stabbing Clark in the back just as the latter was on the brink of winning, he left the Speaker's people spitting rivets - to the point where they preferred to see Wilson nominated (the differences between him and Clark were pretty marginal, so it wasn't too bitter a pill) rather than allow Bryan to profit from his treachery. So as it became clear that Clark could no longer win, they gradually switched to Wilson to ensure that WJB never got a look in.
The sequel was bitterly ironic. Only a couple of years later, Bryan and Clark were closer to each other on the crucial issue of the time, WW1, than either was to Wilson. Bryan passionately opposed war, but by blocking Clark's nomination it was he, more than anyone else, who had made it possible.
Interesting analysis. So, I assume that with no Wilson, Bryan finds another candidate to "support" in order to deadlock the convention? If so, who would that be? Would they be able to obtain the nomination with Bryan supposedly backing them up, or would Clark be better able to fight off this alternate challenge? Could Bryan actually end up the nominee here?
Paul V McNutt
Banned
A Bryan presidency during WWI would have been interesting. He would have been very strict about neutrality.
JAG88
Banned
Bryan would have been the death of the British blockade, the US would have demanded compliance with international blockade rules and respect for neutral trade so there is no real blockade of Germany and therefore no USW. The Allies run out of money in 1916 and either ask for an armistice then or languish until the Russian collapse of 1917, only to get even worse terms.
No USSR, just a dwarf Red Russia surrounded by German puppet monarchies with Germany occasionally putting down communist rebellions there. The European Community is formed in 1918, under the "leadership" of Germany.
No USSR, just a dwarf Red Russia surrounded by German puppet monarchies with Germany occasionally putting down communist rebellions there. The European Community is formed in 1918, under the "leadership" of Germany.
JAG88
There would still be a blockade, albeit possibly not as vigerous. I can't see Byran selling war with the entente powers so that US industry can sell military goods to Germany. Especially given the attitude to Germany after its attack on Belgium.
The war could have gone either way. Too many butterflies to tell for sure. It does boost the position of the central powers but how do the allies respond as there are plenty of changes that can counter much of the down-side for the allies. It could end up as a peace of exhaustion, or a Germany 'victory' with an exhausted state tied up trying to occupy vast areas of Europe and possibly with an unending guerilla war in Russia and a cold war with Britain. Or the allies play their hand a bit better and still manage a limited win as OTL.
Germany is still likely to try USW with the resultant impacts on allied supplies [until convoying is introduced] and neutral public opinion.
Steve
He could have done that even with Wilson in the race, had he been willing to "get his hands dirty" and fight for it in the primaries like a normal candidate.
Imho, Bryan's trouble was that his three nominations had left him feeling that the party in some way "belonged" to him. He wanted to be nominated by acclamation as the Democrats' "natural" leader. Hence his misjudgement at the Convention.
It's an interesting question what might have happened had he not intervened, and Wilson not withdrawn. If Clark failed to reach the two-thirds, Bryan might still have emerged as the nominee, but OTL his treatment of Clark made him a few enemies too many.
JAG88
Banned
Britain was ready to back down at the first firm gesture by the US, but it never came. There would be a blockade, but Britain would not be able to monitor or stop neutral traffic bound for countries other than the CPs, so trade would be diverted there and the neutrals would make a killing reselling goods to the CPs.
Not too many, or at least none favourable o the entente. Money is a concern, France was done in 1914, most of its industry, coal and iron where in German hands now and was supported only by massive loans from Britain and loans taken by Britain in the US. Bryan was very outspoken against loaning to the combatants so no or little loans here, all purchases are to be paid in cash.
Once Russia is done the game is up for the allies, Germany is in a better resource and supply position (no Hindenburg program) and is in no hurry due to no US in the war. Use the less trustworthy AH troops to garrison former Russia and then knock Italy out of the war with follow on GE/AH attacks after Caporetto, cut them a deal and now is pretty much time to deal with the last 2 allies. Support and complement Turkish troops in the ME and take Egypt adding a few thousand Km to the British trade lines and then Libya, just to scorn the Italians, then cutoff British oil in Iraq-Persia.
I really dont think it would even come to fighting it in the West, but even if it comes to that Germany would have a lot more supplies, aircraft, guns and tanks than IOTL and the allies less with no US to back them up.
No, USW was a direct response to the illegal blockade, no real blockade no USW, there is no need for it and you risk neutral opinion upon which your blockade running trade now relies.
None of the South would be willing to vote TR, given how OTL played out, the Midwest would be owned by Bryan anytime, and the rest of the competitive states were split in half with Taft and TR: Any Democrat could have won 1912, it was their year to win.
In 1904 TR won every state North of the Mason Dixon line including Nebraska the home state of Bryan. McKinley won Nebraska in 00. Small state but that tells me that the central plains and mid west were not sewed up for Bryan. I think 12 was the Dems year, 10 proved that. But I think TR beats Bryan in a 2 man race for sure. In a three man race I believe Bryan does worse than Wilson. A very close race in the electoral college.
Why should Bryan do worse than Wilson? In 1908 he got 43.1% as against 41.8% for Wilson four years later - and that was his worst performance to date. Assuming he picks up a few votes from Debs he is likely (in a three way race) to at least match the 45.5% that he got in 1900. In a two-way contest, given the GOP's unpopularity, he (indeed any Democrat) is likely to do much better than that.
In a two way race it could be. In a three way one it will of course be no contest at all. Any Democrat will get roughly the same 400-plus electoral votes that Wilson got OTL. It doesn't greatly matter whom they nominate. Like the Republicans in 1920, they can win with virtually anyone.
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