WI the Japanese nuclear crises had been far worse?

[Eldritch Po l i t b u ro]

I read this article:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/07/naoto-kan-japan-nuclear-crisis_n_952821.html

and wondered what would've happened if it had somehow gotten so bad that Tokyo had been evacuated and Japan was more or less removed from the world economy. Any thoughts? ASB?


BTW, maybe this should be in Future History since it's so recent? Not sure

 

[Michel Van]

no ABS
hab Fukushima goes 4 X Chernobyl disaster
they had to evacuate half of Japan to west part of the country

that's region of Hokkaidō, Tōhoku, Kantō and east parts of Chūbu
with 65 Million people !

the Government would move to Kyoto as new Capital
economical is would be a disaster
the big companies like Sony or Toyota had to abandon there japanese production sites and also there HQ in Tokyo !

 

[Tony]

Let's say one of the reactors encountered a nuclear explosion, leading to a chain explosion (but not necessarily nuclear) of all other reactors in Fukushima and the total destruction of the prefecture.

Even in such a case, you do not have to evacuate half of Japan, but expect Fukushima, Yamagata, Miyagi, Nigata, Gunma, Tochigi, Ibaraki, Saitama and the northern proportions of Chiba to become permanent no-go zones. Tokyo would be out of the most terrible ring, but after all still safe for normal human activities. Also, China, North and SSouth Koreas, Russia or even Hawaii would be affected by the nuclear dust more severely in such a scenario.

Nikkei 225 would go down for at least 40-50%, expect a small-scale panic in the global stock market that would not last for more than a week. Capital around the world would no longer find refuge in Yen, which would indeed be good for Japan,. Also, Japan would be far more united. The LDP would be willing to enter a national unity coalition. Naoto Kan would still be PM now, and he would push for more aggressive energy reforms, perhaps bringing some of his ideas back when he was a core member of New Party Sakigake.

 

[Sumeragi]

the Government would move to Kyoto as new Capital

Most likely Osaka: There's been a movement which called for a "two capital" project before the crisis. It's more likely that we would be reverting back to "Yamato" where most of the heavy manufacturing is done in the Nagoya region, trade in Osaka, and petrochemical is northern Kyushu.

 

[Johnrankins]

Let's say one of the reactors encountered a nuclear explosion, leading to a chain explosion (but not necessarily nuclear) of all other reactors in Fukushima and the total destruction of the prefecture.

Even in such a case, you do not have to evacuate half of Japan, but expect Fukushima, Yamagata, Miyagi, Nigata, Gunma, Tochigi, Ibaraki, Saitama and the northern proportions of Chiba to become permanent no-go zones. Tokyo would be out of the most terrible ring, but after all still safe for normal human activities. Also, China, North and SSouth Koreas, Russia or even Hawaii would be affected by the nuclear dust more severely in such a scenario.

Nikkei 225 would go down for at least 40-50%, expect a small-scale panic in the global stock market that would not last for more than a week. Capital around the world would no longer find refuge in Yen, which would indeed be good for Japan,. Also, Japan would be far more united. The LDP would be willing to enter a national unity coalition. Naoto Kan would still be PM now, and he would push for more aggressive energy reforms, perhaps bringing some of his ideas back when he was a core member of New Party Sakigake.

It is physically impossible to have a nuclear explosion in a nuclear power plant. They aren't built in such a way that they can go off like an atomic bomb. You can have chemical explosions however.

 

[Dunois]

I read this article:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/07/naoto-kan-japan-nuclear-crisis_n_952821.html

and wondered what would've happened if it had somehow gotten so bad that Tokyo had been evacuated and Japan was more or less removed from the world economy. Any thoughts? ASB?


BTW, maybe this should be in Future History since it's so recent? Not sure

In a nutshell it is ASB especially the "nuclear chain reaction" which a poster below mentionned.

One can already make a case that a lot of evacuations in the 30km radii were completely unecessary considering that the radiation level there are too low to have an impact on populations.

 

[Incognito]

One can already make a case that a lot of evacuations in the 30km radii were completely unecessary considering that the radiation level there are too low to have an impact on populations.

You forget that atomics cause fear in your Average Joe. People that go "lol, modern cities can survive nuclear bombs (small ones at least)" forget that even if the damage is cosmetic and radiation level are low the city dweller will try to get out of there ASAP.

I wouldn't call this idea ASB. Even if you can't make the disaster worst, you could find ways to spread the radiation panic.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

You forget that atomics cause fear in your Average Joe. People that go "lol, modern cities can survive nuclear bombs (small ones at least)" forget that even if the damage is cosmetic and radiation level are low the city dweller will try to get out of there ASAP.

I wouldn't call this idea ASB. Even if you can't make the disaster worst, you could find ways to spread the radiation panic.

Fair point, but if most of the damage is caused by largely unjustified mass panic that's going to be a very different scenario from the earlier (and impossible) scenario of Fukushima blowing up like a couple dozen nuclear bombs.