Just a thought I had after reading some of my old stuff, what if Rommel had successfully taken Tobruk in 1941, would he have been content then to sit on his laurels and get the Italians improving the infrastructure in North Africa, or would he have tried to push on into Egypt? And what would the British have done in either case? would a static border allow them to keep sufficient forces in the Far East to make Malaya and or Burma a tough nut to crack?
WI Rommel Takes Tobruk in 1941
- Thread starter MattII
- Start date
My first instinct here is to ask: How does he manage that?
But, let's try to go on, handwaving the how.
First off - when does this happen? At the first try? That means the entire DAK moves on. By the time they reach MM, they are at the end of their logistics and have to stop and regroup. Not even Rommel can make them go on. However, bear in mind the forces used to besiege the fortress were of little use in the open desert. They were largely the least mobile of the Axis forces.
Do the Australians manage to retreat? If so, the net difference is not that big anyway. If they surrender, though..
What happens to the port of Tobruk? Is it demolished? Do the British sink ships? Blow piers? If the port is operational it might ease the logistics burden on DAK, but the question is how much.
I do not see Rommel sitting still in any case. He would continue to pursue the British and unless Wavell picks up idiot ball, Rommel is stopped at Alamein.
But, let's try to go on, handwaving the how.
First off - when does this happen? At the first try? That means the entire DAK moves on. By the time they reach MM, they are at the end of their logistics and have to stop and regroup. Not even Rommel can make them go on. However, bear in mind the forces used to besiege the fortress were of little use in the open desert. They were largely the least mobile of the Axis forces.
Do the Australians manage to retreat? If so, the net difference is not that big anyway. If they surrender, though..
What happens to the port of Tobruk? Is it demolished? Do the British sink ships? Blow piers? If the port is operational it might ease the logistics burden on DAK, but the question is how much.
I do not see Rommel sitting still in any case. He would continue to pursue the British and unless Wavell picks up idiot ball, Rommel is stopped at Alamein.
Having thought about that myself a while back, I came up with this:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=349358
long story short - Rommel does to the retreating British the same thing they did to the retreating Italians, narrowly cutting off their escape. This bags him three Brigades. He then pushes on to Tobruk, which is defended by just one Brigade plus elements of another that was still in traininig. Timed well, the assault could work, leading to him taking Tobruk.
Note - all of this happens whilst a lot of British forces were off on their trip to Greece
The same way the British did possibly? If took them all of two weeks from first contact to accepting the surrender of the garrison.
Also, I was thinking of it happening somewhere between early may and early June, ie, before Battleaxe, but after the first attacks.
Riain
Banned
I don't think Tobruk is a 'strategic position' in the context of the desert war. Sure it's a small port that can handle about 20,000 tons a month but IIRC it isn't near a pass on the escarpment on in a narrow position or anything like that. IIUC even when it was held by the Commonwealth the Axis could still bypass it through the desert easily enough to supply their forces to the east of it.
I suppose Rommel could have done that. However, I really fail to see how he could have advanced any faster than he actually did. That part of campaign is almost an unmitigated Charlie-Fox for the British and bonanza for the DAK. Australians were a tough nut to crack and will not surrender just so. Note that the NZ division led by Freyberg broke out from the encirclement (during Crusader? Run to the wire? In between? I can't recall the exact date) so I believe the Australians would too.
Rommel tried taking Tobruk on the run and was given a bloody nose. Even Rommel decided he needed the heavy artillery to capture the fortress.
In the end, even the fall of Tobruk would mean little, as others have noted. Alamein is the extreme limit of the Axis advance by simple geography.
IIRC, Axis has built a good quality road in short while, alleviating that particular impediment.
Maybe, but I do wonder how much rebuilding the Commonwealth troops did between January and April.
He managed to do it right the next year.
Except it give Rommel the option of sitting tight without risking too much.
Having to use troops to pin down the garrison is a real drag.
Could they have used these troops for anything else? In the DESERT? IIRC, they used mostly the foot infantry and very little panzers or mechanized forces. In effect, the only threat was that the Tobruk garrison would breakout in conjunction with the major British offensive. Which actually happened.
If Tobruk falls, but the troops defending it actually survive and retreat to join the Army of Nile, the net gain for the DAK is very little.
Tobruk falling in 1942 had more to do with the fact that the 9th Australian division was recalled back to Australia. And the British did not perceive there was actually any danger to Tobruk.
I'm assuming that the first tentative attack wouldn't work so that by the time it is taken, the only way to escape will be by ship.
Evacuating 10k+ soldiers from Tobruk might be a tall order, even for RN. They'll try, sure as hell. How many escape, how do they reform, the effect on Australia if one of their best divisions is lost. Plenty to think about there.
My guess is that the fall of Tobruk on, say May 1st, 1941. Coupled with Crete disaster, the Axis now seems unstoppable. Rommel discards his earlier plan of securing the border at Sollum-Siwa. He concentrates DAK and Italians, thanks kindly to Paulus for his advice to postpone any attack until better supply was arranged and goes ahead.
The British have already retreated from Sollum and established a rearguard position in Mersa Matruh. That is overrun in short order, but proves to be a trip wire. The real British line is at Alamein. After ferocious battle, the Axis advance is stopped there. Rommel losses two thirds of his panzers and stops to lick his wounds.
Meanwhile, Wavel receives kindly thanks for all he had done before and sent to Far East. Auchinleck takes over, many reinforcements arrive, the British accumulate enough air assets and push the Axis back to Gazalla.
He did it OTL after the Tobruk fell in 1942. He discarded all the plans made beforehand and blindly charged.
If Rommel captures Tobruk in '41, the most likely moment by far is in the first rush.
To the extent that that he would continue the advance immediately into Egypt, he'll have to be doing it with captured British supplies. What all exactly was in Tobruk in April 1941 is something I'd have to look into.
To the extent that that he would continue the advance immediately into Egypt, he'll have to be doing it with captured British supplies. What all exactly was in Tobruk in April 1941 is something I'd have to look into.
Biggest butterflies is that it can affect Crete (which helps the fallschirmjaeger) and if Rommel is smart, it helps his supply lines if he doesn't destroy all of his armor when it is clear that the British are too dug in. Rommel will captures tons of supplies and stuff in Tobruk and it makes it possible that the Allies counterattack in 1941 can fail.
I think it's entirely possible he takes a pause, the situation in 42 was very different with Rommel fearing the Americans landing to his West at any time and seeing the British build up steam so quickly.
Without the U.S. in the war Rommel would still be in a hurry, but not nearly the kind of hurry he was in the summer of 1942.
Evacuating 10k+ soldiers from Tobruk might be a tall order, even for RN. They'll try, sure as hell. How many escape, how do they reform, the effect on Australia if one of their best divisions is lost. Plenty to think about there.
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10K.....A tall order....for the RN????
And the Garrison was 27K Strong not 10K - it wasn't just the Aussies
By that stage in the war the RN are the world leading Subject matter experts in removing a defeated army from a hostile shore - they had had a lot of practice
However the heavier Equipment would have to be destroyed but the navy could probably do that number of men in a single night.
