WI: Nobunaga dies at Okehazama

[BBadolato]

I posting this the writers forum but no real responses, but how you go about a timeline where Oda Nobubnaga dies in a disastrous battle of Okehazama. The man who gave the support base to the other 2 unifiers is dead, Hideyoshi's just a sandal barer, and Ieyasu is an Imagawa vassal. Japan as we know it is practically butterflied away.

At the most I could see Imagawa Yoshimoto taking Owari, but i'm stuck at where would he go from there and what would happen in the rest of Japan. In regards to Kyushu and Shikoku I could see the Shimazu and Chosokabe doing as well as they there did and maybe more in case of the Shimazu, since no Hideyoshi to intervene in their attack against the Otomo. While the Chosokobe might have to deal with a longer lasting Miyoshi,and Western Honshu could be united by the Mori.

My biggest concern is what would happen in Central and Western Honshu. The Miyoshi would still be a significant force in the west, the Ikko Ikki would still be around.I'm skepical of Takeda Shingen unifying japan or becoming shogun, since the Imagawa are in a marriage alliance with the Hojo and Takeda, I doubt they would fight each other soon, and not having the Imagawa get absorbed into the Takeda would leave the Takeda weaker. If Takeda Yoshinobu still decides to rebel against Shingen would Yoshimoto decide to support his brother in law Shingen or his son in law Yoshinobu.

The initial premise of just Yoshimoto not dying early means the Tokugawa are still vassals and the Imagawa won't be picked apart, but the butterfly's seem too huge to guess what would happen. If I tried making this into a time line would I be advised to go somewhat OTL for events that might be radically effected by the POD, and then use whatever may be plausible for the major changes.

 

[Fox Eating Bamboo]

Hmm... Maybe if the Takeda wind up weaker, the Uesugi wind up stronger? If Shingen can't counter Kenshin, we might see the Dragon of Echigo taking prominence in the east. Not sure about that - just a thought.

What I do think is pretty much certain is that without Oda Nobunaga, Japan will not be unified by the time it did OTL. I don't think the Imagawa have what it takes; none of them is a Nobunaga. And a longer Sengoku Period means a longer period of exposure to western influence and Christianity, including Protestantism by the 17th Century. It's quite possible that, whenever Japan is unified, there won't be an analogue to Tokugawa isolation, and we'll have a sizable Christian minority.

It's also possible that Japan doesn't entirely unify. It probably will eventually, but maybe Kyushu would wind up a separate state from the mainland? Both would respect the emperor, I'd expect, but maybe two shoguns? (Just rambling right now. I'll stop.)

 

[tonsofun]

What Imagawa's true intentions were are unknown even to this day. It is believed he was heading to the capital but no one knows for sure and Owari was simply in the way and couldn't be left unchecked. He lost at Okehazama because he got cocky, assumed he had already won and let his men celebrate prematurely.
Nobunaga was the first one to really have a stab at unification and he was able to since he was in a great location. The most powerful of the daimyo was determined by their location. Takeda was powerful because it was fairly central and had huge reserves of gold. The smaller daimyo in the centre all got swallowed up because they were in an unlucky position and Nobunaga simply took advantage.
Daimyo like Chosokabe, Date and Shimazu all survived because they were far out and knew when they were beaten.

If Imagawa does act with caution then he stands a good chance of winning at Okehazama. This does make him considerably stronger and if he wants he can go to the capital. But his allies, the Hojo and Takeda won't be too fond of this and may break their alliance to stop him. Imagawa would also need to deal with the Asakura/Azai, Ikko-Ikki and the Miyoshi. Going by the way he acted at Okehazama would suggest he wasn't the smartest of daimyo and might not take advantage of his advantages like Nobunaga did. The Sengoku period could well last alot longer.

A longer Sengoku period might end up turning Japan into something similar to the Holy Roman Empire where you have many states out to get each other but uniting against a foreign aggressor. The Emperor was believed to be descended from the Rain Goddess so no one would hurt him and any foriegn power that tries to would have to face a united Japan. It may well be the case that Japan gets united later on, by a Japanese Bismarck.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

One of my original plans in my existing TL does involve butterflying the Imjin War, but here is another question that I need to ask: could Japan also be exposed to Islamic influence as well, through the Malay traders?

 

[BBadolato]

Forgive my ignorance, but how was Owari a good starting point to conquer Japan? Nobunaga had the Mino the Kitabatake to north and west and the rather powerful Imagawa to the east. How is Nobunaga the first person to really have a stab at unification? I know Nobunaga was intelligent and bold, but his success also did rely on his good luck, and good retainers.

still would the Hojo and Takeda be willing to break their triple marriage alliance with one another? The main reason why the Takeda did betray the Imagawa was because they were greatly weakened, they didn't have the Tokugawa as vassals, and most of their leadership was killed at Okehazama as well. With a stronger Imagawa and the fact there were several marriages between the families, I don't think Shingen would betray him, and wouldn't he also have to worry about the Uesugi on top of that.

Why do you Japan wouldn't be able to be reunited untill later if Nobubaga dies? The couldn't the Mori,Shimazu or any other clan that rose to prominence still be a contender to unify japan?

 

[BBadolato]

One of my original plans in my existing TL does involve butterflying the Imjin War, but here is another question that I need to ask: could Japan also be exposed to Islamic influence as well, through the Malay traders?

It's possible if they can reach Japan, but how influential it could be I really don't know.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Probably miniscule, though that alone could result in a Balkanized Japanese state, with a possible set of Catholic, Protestant, Orthodox Christian (if the Russians have their piece), Buddhist-Shinto and Muslim states.

 

[kasumigenx]

Some japanese languages would render Okehazama as Okefazama..

 

[PhilippeO]

Nobunaga was the first one to really have a stab at unification and he was able to since he was in a great location.

but how was Owari a good starting point to conquer Japan?

i think Nobunaga great location is Mino/Gifu which he is inherit/conquer after Saito Dosan dead. competent daimyo at Mino will block any would be conquer from Owari / Kai / other eastern/middle honshu from reaching Kyoto. Mino also rich enough to produce substantial army.

 

[tonsofun]

Some japanese languages would render Okehazama as Okefazama..

Which Japanese dialects would these be?
I searched 'Okefazama' in google and only got this conversation.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Another question would be that if the Sengoku period went longer if Nobunaga died at Okehazama, then how is Japan supposed to react to Russian exploration ships sailing close to their territories? Could we even see Japan becoming a de facto colony of Russia?

 

[tonsofun]

It seems more likely that the first people the Russians contact may establish trading relations and northern Japan could end up with it's own Nagasaki with Russians and maybe even Russian Orthodox missionaries.
In the late Edo period the Russians did attempt to open Japan up for trade but were rebuffed as was everyone else who tried and in the end they went to Hokkaido and conducted a few raids where they stole mostly dried fish and some coins. The local authorities noted the events but were powerless to do much as they were do far out.

 

[kasumigenx]

Which Japanese dialects would these be?
I searched 'Okefazama' in google and only got this conversation.

The Southern Japanese dialects particularly those of Kyushu, they retained the F before there was a linguafranca in Japan which were the Kyoto dialect and later the Tokyo/Edo Dialect, which is obvious because some of the Kyushu dialects still have a F phoneme just like Okinawan and in those dialects some of their words have an F in place of an H.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

It seems more likely that the first people the Russians contact may establish trading relations and northern Japan could end up with it's own Nagasaki with Russians and maybe even Russian Orthodox missionaries.
In the late Edo period the Russians did attempt to open Japan up for trade but were rebuffed as was everyone else who tried and in the end they went to Hokkaido and conducted a few raids where they stole mostly dried fish and some coins. The local authorities noted the events but were powerless to do much as they were do far out.

Though in this case, Russian "Nagasaki" would actually be in the island of Hokkaido, somewhere around OTL Sapporo.

 

[tonsofun]

The British tried to do the same thing in the late 1600's and got rebuffed. So a few years later, they put a Dutch flag on their ship, sailed in and managed to take a few Dutch merchants hostage and managed to get a lot of food for it.
So it seems likely, that the European powers would each have their own 'Nagasaki' in this case. If the Sengoku period continues, we could be looking at one heck of a proxy war. Would make for an interesting tl.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

So many Nagasakis. Although in the end, there may only be one nation that can dominate all of Japan, or partition. Though I can also ask if Japan may fill the same role as the HRE, while the German states would somehow be unified earlier like OTL Japan.

 

[tonsofun]

Japan could easily fall into a HRE type situation. Especially as all the daimyo are pretty much their own country and are only out for themselves.
But in the face of a foreign threat, Japan could easily unite. If one foreign power, takes things too far or another plays their advantages, we could easily look at unification.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

So if Nobunaga dies, could we see someone like Honda Tadakatsu emerge as a weaker shogun?

 

[BBadolato]

Not really Tadakatsu Honda was a vassal or Tokugawa Ieyasu or Motoyasu Matsudaira, who was in turn a vassal of Yoshimoto Imagawa. Lets say that after Owari is taken Yoshimoto and Motoyasu end up dying in battle against the Saito of Mino. Tadakatsu could become independent, but I doubt he would become Shogun, by lineage and possibly being beaten out by stronger Daimyos.

What would have happen to the Ashikaga shogunate? if we assume Yoshiteru gets assassinated still, would it effectively become and remain a Miyoshi puppet.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

One good way to screw Nobunaga is for Imagawa's forces to lose the siege of Marune, as the victory was the reason why Imagawa became too cocky. If Imagawa can lose the siege, then he'd be less arrogant and focus more on pounding Nobunaga's forces in Okehazama. It would also help if Tokugawa was also killed in Marune as well.