Giolitti entered the Italo-Turkish War with considerable reluctance and when it was over he considered it a mistake. WI he had decided against going to war? As a start it seems that the Balkan Wars go away. Does a much smaller Serbia behave itself and so no assassination in Sarajevo? And if there is an assassination do they submit wit condition to the Austrian demands?
WI no Italo-Turkish War
- Thread starter Tom_B
- Start date
This changes a bit in Italy politically as it eliminates a major empowering/recruitment factor for OTL's nationalist/irredentist/imperialist factions which helped push Italy into WWI and formed a core for Fascism. Now, this may alienate and radicalize these factions earlier, or may limit them. Maybe Mussie stays Socialist, who knows? Too many randoms in there to know for certain.
It also eliminates a major tension between Italy and the OE once whatever ATL form of the Great War happens (rather inevitable in some form by this point, IMO, assassination or not). It's way up in the air whether IT gets involved or not. If Giolitti is in the PM slot then the answer is "no"...probably takes the south half of Trento as a buyout and watches hell break loose.
No Italian Libya for Fourth Shore delusions, possibly, unless IT claims Libya from OE after *WWI. I'd guess the Entente would throw IT that dry old bone.
It also eliminates a major tension between Italy and the OE once whatever ATL form of the Great War happens (rather inevitable in some form by this point, IMO, assassination or not). It's way up in the air whether IT gets involved or not. If Giolitti is in the PM slot then the answer is "no"...probably takes the south half of Trento as a buyout and watches hell break loose.
No Italian Libya for Fourth Shore delusions, possibly, unless IT claims Libya from OE after *WWI. I'd guess the Entente would throw IT that dry old bone.
If war does occur there are several deltas beyond Italy. Serbia is considerably smaller and there are much improved odds that the Austro-Hungarians will be able to overrun them in the fall even without Second Army which makes their situation on the Eastern Front better. Then there is the Ottoman Empire which has held on to its European territories lost in the First Balkan War OTL and not being weakened by 2 wars will be a more formidable adversary probably incl. being further along in expanding their rail system. Does this mean that the Entente woos the OE into their camp thereby giving up on their various partition fantasies? If they don't and the OE still joins the Central Powers it means if Serbia and Montenegro have not yet been overwhelmed completely they soon will be with an Ottoman Army attacking from the south.
There's a lot of butterflies here considering how up-in-the-air the diplomatic situation was at the time, so really anything goes. You could spin a TL any number of ways from this one or from a pre-WW1 POD in general.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Hmm, this would butterfly away the Balkan Wars, and thus also "our" WW1. The WW1 that is born from this situation, when Serbian expansionism still is geared towards the Ottoman Empire and not A-H, would be something very different than OTL.
Agreed which is why I am a tad surprised you have been the only one to respond to this post.
It's probably that very uncertainty that scares a lot away.
Really, this is throwing a spanner into an unbalanced machine that's already spinning out of control and breaking apart. When the pieces start flying they'd fly differently than if you hadn't added the spanner, but who the hell knows where they'll fly?
In Shadow of Fashoda, the Ottomans and Italy are in an alliance together and therefore there's no Italo-Ottoman War, no Balkan Wars, and a different WWI.
Serbian aggresion was far from the only reason the Balkan wars took place. In fact , Bulgaria bore the brunt of the fight , commiting the most troops amongst the balkan "comrades in arms" . It was in fact a temporary alignment of interest by Bulgaria , Serbia and Montenegro , supported by Greece, who though not a member nevertheless jumped at the opportunity (and promptly fought against Bulgaria over the spoils...) . The Ottoman Empire , even after the revolution of the Neoturks had simply run out of steam at least as far as its european possesions were concerned . In a no italian-ottoman war scenario the Dodecanese might prematurely end up greek , though it might take WWI for that to happen .
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