WI: No Giulio Andreotti?

[Neoteros]

Giulio Andreotti, one of the longest serving and most controversial politicians in Italy, was rather frail in his youth, and suffered from chronic headaches as well; what if he'd died at some point in the 1940s, just like his father (Spanish flu) and sister (pneumonia) before him, how would Italian politics change? The Christian Democrats would still have a leading role in the first decades of the postwar period, IMO - they did have the CIA in their corner, after all - but would they be as dominant as they were IRL? If they happen on schedule, the Years of Lead might end up being slightly different as well, as Andreotti was tied to Gladio, not to mention the later mafia wars - since he knew infamous boss Totò Riina, too.

IMO, PCI and PSI would chip away at DC votes far earlier than they did IRL but, beyond that, I have no idea.

 

[DougM]

You may want to point people to where they can read up a bit on this person as I suspect not very many folks on this board have any idea who this person is.

 

[Neoteros]

You may want to point people to where they can read up a bit on this person as I suspect not very many folks on this board have any idea who this person is.

Here.

 

[moro]

I believe that, given the multitude of positions he held, his absence would have meant a greater turnover of politicians or at least some politicians would have had a much better chance of emerging. any idea who it could be?

 

[Neoteros]

I believe that, given the multitude of positions he held, his absence would have meant a greater turnover of politicians or at least some politicians would have had a much better chance of emerging. any idea who it could be?

Your accidental namesake Aldo Moro, for example - even though he wasn't quite the spotless figure he was eventually mythologized to be.

 

[Marco Rivignani]

Giulio Andreotti, one of the longest serving and most controversial politicians in Italy, was rather frail in his youth, and suffered from chronic headaches as well; what if he'd died at some point in the 1940s, just like his father (Spanish flu) and sister (pneumonia) before him, how would Italian politics change? The Christian Democrats would still have a leading role in the first decades of the postwar period, IMO - they did have the CIA in their corner, after all - but would they be as dominant as they were IRL? If they happen on schedule, the Years of Lead might end up being slightly different as well, as Andreotti was tied to Gladio, not to mention the later mafia wars - since he knew infamous boss Totò Riina, too.

Well, the absence of Andreotti would more than likely mean that what later became Andreotti's wing (called Primavera in OTL) will more than likely be taken by either Franco Evangelisti or Vittorio Sbardella. They would more than likely still ally with the dorotei to topple Fanfani. In the 1970s however, without the galvanizing figure that Andreotti was in OTL, it is very likely that this wing of the DC would have been taken over by Forlani. It is also very likely the TTL "Andreotti" will be Forlani as he was one of the closest allies of Andreotti in OTL and supported many of its initiatives. Forlani was sightly more left-wing than Andreotti and had better relations with Craxi so it is not unbelievable to think that TTL 80s governments will be more stable than in OTL and would last longer. Maybe with the help of De Mita, Forlani could even be able to convince the rest of the DC of the feasibility of Craxi's "New Lira" proposal in 1984 (1 new Lira for 1000 old Liras). This would have more than likely improved Italy's economic outlook in the 90s and would have smoothened the transition to the euro. After the end of the cold war, Tangentopoli would have still happened and the DC would have been dissolved just like in OTL. The mafia situation (and Salvo Lima) would have also changed very little since Forlani and others were also heavily involved with the Mafia in southern Italy.

IMO, PCI and PSI would chip away at DC votes far earlier than they did IRL but, beyond that, I have no idea.

Very likely but not to a really big margin. For the PSI maybe 15-16% instead of OTL 13% and maybe 1-2% more for the PCI but nothing more. Maybe the PCI will surpass the DC in the late 80s but tanks to the Pentapartito nothing substantial would really change. Also, no CAF (Craxi-AndreottI-Forlani) but a CFD (Craxi-Forlani-De Mita) or CFG (Craxi-Forlani-Goria).