WI: No Franco-Prussian War ?
- Thread starter SunZi
- Start date
Actually a fascinating scenario.
Starting by Germany internally, by 1870 an unification of the North German Confederation is all but a given. I’m less sure about the South German states, but those were already economically dominated by Prussia through the Zollverein, and public sentiment was in favor of unification, so the odds are that it’ll happen sooner or later.
The dynamics between France, England and Germany would be very interesting. Without a Franco-German enmity (the border is pretty stable and undisputed, and Germans on the French side wouldn’t make much of a difference). Any pair out of the three would have reasons to gang up on the other one, so practically anything could happen.
Starting by Germany internally, by 1870 an unification of the North German Confederation is all but a given. I’m less sure about the South German states, but those were already economically dominated by Prussia through the Zollverein, and public sentiment was in favor of unification, so the odds are that it’ll happen sooner or later.
The dynamics between France, England and Germany would be very interesting. Without a Franco-German enmity (the border is pretty stable and undisputed, and Germans on the French side wouldn’t make much of a difference). Any pair out of the three would have reasons to gang up on the other one, so practically anything could happen.
Could all three have worked together, if say Austria and Russia remain close?
Two things here.
How do you define “remain together”? If you mean don’t go to war against each other, it’s definitely possible, since at first glance there are no sticking issues that would justify a war. Still, a struggle for influence to some level is all but inevitable, as the strongest nations in Europe. This is especially true for Germany and Britain, who would be competing to be the largest economy of Europe, while France had already fallen a bit behind.
Secondly, Austria and Russia were pretty much already in a crashing course. Both desired greater influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, and Russia’s dreams of pan-slavism clash fundamentally with the Habsburg empire.
And if Napoleon IV ends up marrying Princess Beatrice as proposed, that would make the French and German Emperors both the cousins of the British monarch. Granted, those sorts of relationships didn't do much for keeping peace in World War I, but the idea of an Anglo-Franco-German alliance is something I haven't seen before.
Exactly, that layer of familial connection may calm things down a bit.
It would never be a military alliance, especially since none of them face immediate military threats, but I could see an informal agreement to uphold the status quo in Europe, with all of them stepping in if something gets too out of hand. I could see this being aimed in particular to Russia, since both GB and Germany viewed it as a potential threat. On the other hand, the French have less reason to prop them up, so its growth might be slower.
Not only from the street but the Parisian population, petty bourgeois and working class, despised her for her ideas, her influence on imperial politics, her splendor, etc... She was appreciated by the clergy but it is little in the face of the bubbling of the capital which, at the time of the péblicite of 1870, is pronounced against the mode, not the liberal Empire but the Empire quite short and the Badinguette is the representative of it. Especially since, in the context of an averted war against Prussia, the Empress will then put all her weight, which was already the case in short, to slow down the liberalization of the Empire and ensure its regency on the young Prince Imperial or simply the reign until the death of Napoleon III, because it was obvious that in the context of the end of the reign of Napoleon the Little, the Empress would be set aside as she represents the reaction to any reform of the system.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Well the next European crisis due, in the absence of a Franco-Prussian war, and unlikely to be averted, would be Christian revolts in the Balkans and an Eastern Crisis. Germany without spoilt relations with France would be less beholden to and fearful of Russia. Would Berlin, Vienna, Paris, and London all have a consensus when St. Petersburg checks in that, 'no, you going to war with the Ottomans is *not* OK'?
That wouldn't be the *only* thing in Europe, Spain would still have some internal instability in the meantime, going through a republican phase. France is dealing with succession and potential regency, Germany is transitioning from the Presidency of the North German Confederacy to the 2nd German Empire with whatever degree of controversy that has in Bavaria and Wurttemburg.
That wouldn't be the *only* thing in Europe, Spain would still have some internal instability in the meantime, going through a republican phase. France is dealing with succession and potential regency, Germany is transitioning from the Presidency of the North German Confederacy to the 2nd German Empire with whatever degree of controversy that has in Bavaria and Wurttemburg.
most likely yes, but that would not be the only thing, perhaps the Cerruti Expedition to Papua New Guinea could be successful
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Separate from the larger discussion of whether it is more significant that the absence of the Franco-Prussian War leaves France *less* motivated to expand colonially, but at the same time *more* able and free to do so, one specific effect of missing the war, related destruction and the indemnity is that France can persist in holding the dominant financial stake in the Suez Canal for longer.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
So ultimately they put more of their eggs in the basket of ones that were more near term revenue but which so painful to hold on to and lose, and never get invested in many of the ones they still dominate to this day.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
I remarked earlier, that France can more easily defend its *financial* position in Egypt.
And others have pointed out that the liberal empire, building off Louis Napoleon's successful detente policies, should have sentimental positivity with Britain that the 3rd Republic did not.
However, Britain better hope that anything it does, does not end up leaving France feeling butt-hurt like OTL. And Britain better hope that does not happen in combination with something like the negative pan-European reaction to the Boer War that happened in OTL. Because the OTL prime obstacle to continental coalition is gone.
Napoleon III doesn't have to use his illness. He was also concerned about the financial expense. Basically, most ministers of France, Britain, Austria, and Russia all expected the mighty French Army to beat the upstart Prussians, but that war wouldn't be cheap. Napoleon III thought he could win. Napoleon III also thought it would be a money pit and Prussia already agreed to their original demand to withdraw their candidate for the Spanish throne this one time.
While I agree that alliance is not inevitable, I think that there is a reasonable chance of Germany and France coalitioning up against Russia and Britain.
It would probably make the left more powerful in France. The French left were dealt quite the blow over the amount of people killed in the commune. Both Marx and Bakunin would not have the Paris commune to point to as an example of their thought. Marx at least wouldn’t have to deal with people accusing him of cowardice for not going to France like Bakunin did
There is a lot of direction one could take with this. If it avoids world war 1, it would mean the second international remains in tact for the time being. The SPD remains the Marxist darling
