Chapman
Donor
Recent events in Haiti have made me take a closer look at the history of this small Caribbean nation, and while I'm far from any sort of expert on Haitian history, I would consider myself decently well read. In particular I've spent a lot of time studying François Duvalier aka "Papa Doc" the notorious dictator who held power over the island from 1957 until he died in 1971. As many of you probably already know, his regime was considered particularly brutal even by the standards of Haitian history, as he preyed on the hopes of poor Black Haitians making them believe he was a champion of their cause, all the while instilling terror across the country against Black and Mulatto Haitians alike. While he did incidentally uplift some number of Black Haitians (who had previously been shut out by their mixed-race, lighter skinned counterparts) he spent the majority of his rule embezzling millions of dollars that was intended as aid provided by the US government. Following his death in 1971, rulership passed to his woefully incompetent and even greedier son, Jean-Claude Duvalier, who ultimately fled to France after being overthrown in 1986. Up to this point the Duvalier regime had been supported by the US as an alleged bastion of anti-Communism, with little to no concern for the impact on the Haitian people. Despite the brutality of the Duvaliers, some Haitians still find themselves looking back at Papa Doc as a source of stability, and some few find themselves wishing he was still in power.
But let's choose to assume that Papa Doc was never elected to begin with. Prior to his election IOTL, he had been a member of the government under President Dumarsais Estimé, serving as Minister of Health and Labor. However when Duvalier opposed the coup led by Paul Magloire, he left this position and returned to private medical practice. Beginning in 1954, Duvalier then went into hiding in the Haitian countryside, fearing retribution from the government under Magloire. So let's say that Duvalier is found, and for whatever reason, killed by forces loyal to the regime. Instead of becoming a notorious symbol of repression and autocracy, Duvalier becomes a martyr.
In the absence of Duvalier, the Magloire regime is still failing. As per OTL the election process in 1957 is still very messy, so let's assume that the man who was made provisional President of Haiti still takes power. His name was Daniel Fignolé, a former (occasional) ally of Duvalier against the Magloire regime, and a widely popular liberal labor organizer. Fignolé was most popular in the capital city of Port-au-Prince, and held such sway among urban workers that he could call mass protests at a moment's notice. This was known as "woulo konpresè" or in Haitian Creole, the "steamroller." He promised social programs for the poorest Haitians and, not unlike Duvalier, championed the Black Haitian population as his base of power against the more wealthy, more influential Mulatto Haitian class. Fignolé was particularly inspired by the New Deal policies of US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and was explicitly anti-Communist; despite this fact, CIA Director Allen Dulles informed then-President Dwight Eisenhower that he had a "strong leftist orientation" which led to the administration's refusal to recognize his provisional government. His programs were deemed "comparable to the Soviets" and, with international as well as strong internal opposition against him, his provisional presidency would quickly come to an end. A grand total of 19 days after he took power, Daniel Fignolé was violently removed by the Haitian military. Despite foreknowledge of this impending event, the US government did nothing to prevent it. With a gun to his head, he was forced to sign a letter of resignation, and was then forcefully exiled from Haiti.
Now I imagine that the most likely outcome of a situation where Duvalier is dead and Fignolé takes provisional power is that, once Fignolé is overthrown, someone else considered acceptable by the "elite" class of Haitians, as well as outside powers, would be installed. Fignolé held limited influence outside of the capital of Haiti and was opposed by the most powerful elements of his nation. But let's choose to assume that outcome isn't inevitable, and that Fignolé does cling to power for at least a few years. Could he realistically implement the New Deal style programs he aspired to? Is it at all possible that he could assuage the US (among other foreign powers) and convince them that he's the best chance for a stable, non-Communist Haiti? Or is it more likely that he finds some way to play both the US and the USSR off against each other in order to receive support from both? Do you think Fignolé would ultimately become an autocrat himself?
But let's choose to assume that Papa Doc was never elected to begin with. Prior to his election IOTL, he had been a member of the government under President Dumarsais Estimé, serving as Minister of Health and Labor. However when Duvalier opposed the coup led by Paul Magloire, he left this position and returned to private medical practice. Beginning in 1954, Duvalier then went into hiding in the Haitian countryside, fearing retribution from the government under Magloire. So let's say that Duvalier is found, and for whatever reason, killed by forces loyal to the regime. Instead of becoming a notorious symbol of repression and autocracy, Duvalier becomes a martyr.
In the absence of Duvalier, the Magloire regime is still failing. As per OTL the election process in 1957 is still very messy, so let's assume that the man who was made provisional President of Haiti still takes power. His name was Daniel Fignolé, a former (occasional) ally of Duvalier against the Magloire regime, and a widely popular liberal labor organizer. Fignolé was most popular in the capital city of Port-au-Prince, and held such sway among urban workers that he could call mass protests at a moment's notice. This was known as "woulo konpresè" or in Haitian Creole, the "steamroller." He promised social programs for the poorest Haitians and, not unlike Duvalier, championed the Black Haitian population as his base of power against the more wealthy, more influential Mulatto Haitian class. Fignolé was particularly inspired by the New Deal policies of US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and was explicitly anti-Communist; despite this fact, CIA Director Allen Dulles informed then-President Dwight Eisenhower that he had a "strong leftist orientation" which led to the administration's refusal to recognize his provisional government. His programs were deemed "comparable to the Soviets" and, with international as well as strong internal opposition against him, his provisional presidency would quickly come to an end. A grand total of 19 days after he took power, Daniel Fignolé was violently removed by the Haitian military. Despite foreknowledge of this impending event, the US government did nothing to prevent it. With a gun to his head, he was forced to sign a letter of resignation, and was then forcefully exiled from Haiti.
Now I imagine that the most likely outcome of a situation where Duvalier is dead and Fignolé takes provisional power is that, once Fignolé is overthrown, someone else considered acceptable by the "elite" class of Haitians, as well as outside powers, would be installed. Fignolé held limited influence outside of the capital of Haiti and was opposed by the most powerful elements of his nation. But let's choose to assume that outcome isn't inevitable, and that Fignolé does cling to power for at least a few years. Could he realistically implement the New Deal style programs he aspired to? Is it at all possible that he could assuage the US (among other foreign powers) and convince them that he's the best chance for a stable, non-Communist Haiti? Or is it more likely that he finds some way to play both the US and the USSR off against each other in order to receive support from both? Do you think Fignolé would ultimately become an autocrat himself?