Two scenarios. I admit that both are fairly ASB, because they ignore trends highly likely to reoccur in an alternate timeline, but they are not technically physically impossible.
The statements in parentheses are attempted explanations of the scenarios, but they are not certainties, just an attempt to make it less implausible.
Scenario 1: Industrialization's benefits do not overcome its costs, at least as far as quality of life goes. (Perhaps early industries are brutal ventures more dangerous than textile making, maybe near-slavery is more common in early industries, and this becomes a precedent). So the demographic transition never starts and industrializing countries don't see their population growing at a much faster rate than before, though they'd still see a migration to cities (how large-scale, I'm not sure).
Scenario 2: Industrializing countries see a decline in mortality rate, but not fertility rate. (No family planning or birth control is ever invented, or they are forgotten, or prohibited by law or belief). As a result, population continually rises once a region industrializes, and the demographic transition is frozen between stage two and three.
Assuming these scenarios start with the beginning of the industrial era, what are the geopolitical effects?
For scenario 1, Europe is probably never able to colonize Africa and Asia fully. And countries everywhere are more reluctant to industrialize.
For scenario 2, I'd predict a few extra pan-European wars due to extra resource strain. Decolonization is successful, but more difficult because of extra troops from Europe. Subsequently, Africa and Asia have continent wide wars just like Europe has had.
The statements in parentheses are attempted explanations of the scenarios, but they are not certainties, just an attempt to make it less implausible.
Scenario 1: Industrialization's benefits do not overcome its costs, at least as far as quality of life goes. (Perhaps early industries are brutal ventures more dangerous than textile making, maybe near-slavery is more common in early industries, and this becomes a precedent). So the demographic transition never starts and industrializing countries don't see their population growing at a much faster rate than before, though they'd still see a migration to cities (how large-scale, I'm not sure).
Scenario 2: Industrializing countries see a decline in mortality rate, but not fertility rate. (No family planning or birth control is ever invented, or they are forgotten, or prohibited by law or belief). As a result, population continually rises once a region industrializes, and the demographic transition is frozen between stage two and three.
Assuming these scenarios start with the beginning of the industrial era, what are the geopolitical effects?
For scenario 1, Europe is probably never able to colonize Africa and Asia fully. And countries everywhere are more reluctant to industrialize.
For scenario 2, I'd predict a few extra pan-European wars due to extra resource strain. Decolonization is successful, but more difficult because of extra troops from Europe. Subsequently, Africa and Asia have continent wide wars just like Europe has had.
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