WI no atomic bombing of Japan

As I made clear in the thread we recently had about what made Japan surrender I very much fall with the academic train of of thought that the nuclear bombs had very little to do with it.
Japan was already making serious moves towards surrender and it was only a matter of time.
The US however felt it had to use the bombs on Japan nonetheless for 3 main reasons.

1: PR. They've spent billions on a super weapon. They really have to use it. If at least to stop the inquest into why the money was wasted there rather than buying guns, armour plate, etc... More big picture; a war winning super weapon. Perfect propaganda.
2: The post war world order. The Americans were quite justifiably worried about the Soviets. Before WW2 was even done they were hard at work preparing for the post war world and the possibility of a WW3 with the Soviets following very soon after.
The Soviets clearly had the numbers...if they set their mind to it then it seemed they could completely overrun Europe. If the Americans could so clearly show they had the technology to make these numbers redundant however.... Then that would change things.
3: Human experimentation. The course of the war had thoroughly dehumanised the Japanese in American eyes. Calls for a full genocide of all the Japanese people weren't really too far outside the mainstream at all.
They could test some of the effects of the bombs easily enough in peace time and on American soil. But this hostile 'sub-human' nation presented a perfect testing ground for seeing how the bomb would work on humans. In the long and short term. People weren't totally ignorant about radiation. There were theories. Since the Japanese were on the ropes it was quite a limited time offer, could they pass up this useful opportunity?

But lets say for whatever reason the bombs aren't dropped.
They remain in storage and Japan still surrenders pretty much on schedule.
What effect would it have on the world for the war not to end with the bombings?
What would this world that has never seen nuclear bombs used in anger look like?
Would the Russians be tempted to make a move? Would some projects that IOTL were cancelled for radiation fears go ahead?
 
I happen to think that it was a combination of the twin bombings and the Soviet drive into Manchuria that led to the Japanese surrender. The Soviet invasion alone wouldn't have led to surrender. Even if the red army takes Manchuria, I don't think the Soviet navy was in any position to invade the home islands. Without the bombings, Operation Downfall may very well have been carried out.
 
As I made clear in the thread we recently had about what made Japan surrender I very much fall with the academic train of of thought that the nuclear bombs had very little to do with it.

That is not at all the modern scholarly consensus. The bombs were not the ultimate cause of the surrender and neither were the Soviets for that matter, it was Japan's generally hopeless situation that caused the surrender. But the bombs (and the Soviets, probably) definitely ensured that the Japanese surrendered in August instead of November or December. Given that an average of 200,000 people were dying every two weeks, that is a significant difference in the humanitarian toll.

Even if the red army takes Manchuria, I don't think the Soviet navy was in any position to invade the home islands.

The Soviets executed a number of amphibious assaults against the Japanese in the Kuriles, Sakhalin, and Korea over the course of August and were definitely preparing for an invasion of Hokkaido when the Japanese gave-up. Had the war continued into September, we would have certainly seen the Soviets make a go at Hokkaido.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Several million are dead and the population of Japan has been destroyed. What happened to Japan in the post-war was nothing short of a miracle and saved the people from the continuation of mass starvation. Downfall happens and that will change. Every man, woman, and child were being indoctrinated to fight the invaders to the bloody end. If Downfall goes ahead, everyone will be a combatant. Nothing short of the Emperor himself declaring surrender could stop this, and even then, ultra-nationalists attempted a coup.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
People ITTL's version of AH.com would regularly be having threads about "Why didn't Truman just use the bomb?"

It was planned that on X-Day Seven Atomic Bombs would be dropped in major military and population districts. It was advised that American Troops would not enter hit cities for 48 hours.
 
Is it agreed that Soviet invasion of Manchuria on 8th of August was not triggered by bombing on 6th and therefore it goes on even if the bombing for some reason gets delayed?
 
On the other hand, suppose the A-bomb had been ready for use against Japan earlier...say, right before the OTL Battle of Leyte Gulf?
 
Is it agreed that Soviet invasion of Manchuria on 8th of August was not triggered by bombing on 6th and therefore it goes on even if the bombing for some reason gets delayed?

Possibly. Stalin did advance the date partly because he was worried that Japan might surrender after the atom bomb before he could make his territorial gains and partly because his forces were ready anyways. The Soviets originally planned to go on the 15th.
 
The Soviets agreed "3 months after the Nazis surrender"

Possibly. Stalin did advance the date partly because he was worried that Japan might surrender after the atom bomb before he could make his territorial gains and partly because his forces were ready anyways. The Soviets originally planned to go on the 15th.

at Yalta in February '45 - a date when no-one (from Oppenheimer down) knew or could know when the bomb could be used
and of course no-one knew VE day would be May 8th.

Yet Stalin kept to that timetable exactly .... declaring war on Aug 8th

The timing is in fact the other way round - the US hurried to drop the first bomb before the Soviet announced date

See the interviews of relevant US officials (world at war , acclaimed British TV doc, produced 1973/4 when many were alive, episode 24, the bomb)
 
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Yet Stalin kept to that timetable exactly .... declaring war on Aug 8th

And as I observed, that was something of an accident. The original Soviet start date was to be August 15th, but the Soviet commander, Marshal Vasilevsky, told Stalin on August 3rd that he could be ready for the offensive as early as August 5th. It is not clear when, precisely Stalin decided to advance the date.
 
I suspect no accident for August Storm

And as I observed, that was something of an accident. The original Soviet start date was to be August 15th, but the Soviet commander, Marshal Vasilevsky, told Stalin on August 3rd that he could be ready for the offensive as early as August 5th. It is not clear when, precisely Stalin decided to advance the date.

The soviets may have planed for no later than the 15th originally
but when offered an Early start Stalin chose the 8th deliberately
He knew the value of appearing to keep his word

By the dates you offer he must have rejected the 5th on the 3rd or 4th
and allowing the two days needed cannot have decided later than the 6th

So it is possible Stalin set the 8th as the start date in response to the Little
but IMHO thats unlikely.... most likely he picked the 8th at or soon after his session with Vasilevsky

but on the other hand we know exactly when the Americans decided to use the Bomb on Japan without warning
That choice was made before Potsdam

Stalin failed to react as expected to Trumans announcement of the Bomb
and that meant the US decided to drop ASAP ... specifically before the Soviets were ready
 
With no bomb dropped it turns into a bloodbath. Maybe a million or so US fatalities and ten times that many Japanese. Alternately the US might choose to just starve Japan out.
 
With no bomb dropped it turns into a bloodbath. Maybe a million or so US fatalities and ten times that many Japanese. Alternately the US might choose to just starve Japan out.
UM. How many Soviet fatalities would you think?

Suppose that for some reason the bombs are not ready to drop until say 20th of August. Meanwhile Soviet advance in Manchuria goes on as per OTL, with the result that Japan surrenders on 18th on account of Soviet success alone.

What would USA do if, on 19th, they are stuck with a bomb ready for 20th and Japan having surrendered because of Soviets on 18th?
 
With the Japanese not being in shock over being hit by the two American atomic bombs, they are able to surrender faster than OTL, with more lives being saved with combat operations ending sooner. Without having the example of the two bombs on Japan, the US will have to turn to using them in Korea. Not for military purposes, but to scare the Soviets and Red China. Which will also fail when its learned Mao doesn't scare before the sight of low yield atomic fission weapons that have little effect on the battlefield.
 
With the Japanese not being in shock over being hit by the two American atomic bombs, they are able to surrender faster than OTL, with more lives being saved with combat operations ending sooner. Without having the example of the two bombs on Japan, the US will have to turn to using them in Korea.

Will there be a Korean war if USA cannot use nuclear bombs in Japan?
 
Truman specifically wanted to use the bomb before Soviet involvement

If the Soviets could end the war before the bomb dropped, Truman thanks god that he never had to use it on civilians.

and deliberately chose to do so without warning the Japanese

Look at the interviews I linked to .. from US staffers up to and including the Deputy Secretary of War

The idea of not killing civilians is ridiculous

The B-29s were killing civilians by the hundred thousand each night to very little military purpose
 
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