WI No 1952 Coup by Fulgencio Batista

Osk

Supposing Fulgencio Batista did not commit his OTL coup for some reason (him dying as a possible POD?) and the Orthodox Party won the election as it is presumed they would, what would be the consequences going forward? For one, Castro never begins his revolutionary movement in such a world, instead he would be running for parliament as an Orthodox Party member. The Orthodox Party was a left-wing populist party that thought there was corruption in the government and sought social reforms and a national identity. What could be the result?

The Orthodox candidate for President in that election was Robert Agramonte, and as far as wikipedia can tell me:

He graduated from the University of Havana School of Law. Dr. Agramonte was also the Dean of School of Philosophy and Letters at the University of Havana. From 1947 to 1948, he was the Ambassador of Cuba to Mexico. In 1948, he returned to Cuba to run for Vice-President of Cuba with Dr. Eduardo Chibás (as President).

He was the first Foreign Minister of the Cuban Revolution. He later resigned because of the Communist tilt of the government. In May 1960, he left Cuba for Puerto Rico with his family.
Click to expand...

He seems like an interesting man.

Any thoughts?
 

David T

I once did a series in soc.history.what-if where the coup attempt is frustrated and the Ortodoxo candidate Agramonte goes on to defeat the Autentico candidate Hevia in the election. I never finished it, but you may still find it amusing...

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/Zgo5gLr79Fw/hQne4W4bagYJ

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/5ZexbyomjK0/xF67nBgyzs8J

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/Cm-HzgotRIg/NHMFgKcOshwJ

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/XIKp5pUBw9k/meUQ_bJUqGIJ

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/BMcHf7MPLLk/i6CjamAWY64J

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/T4DPmqTEq2Y/u3KgA8u141IJ

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/cbU2QvmB708/vQt5conG5dIJ

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/LjEiNEhw64w/tExTdgJlPr8J
 

Osk

It's awesome that someone actually put work into somewhat of TL centered on this idea! I'm going to go over those links you provided! :D

If anyone has any other ideas on this, I'd love to hear them as well. I can imagine that an Agramonte Presidency in Cuba would make various left-wing reforms, though with a populist bent, particularly reforms dealing with a united Cuban identity and social reforms. In the Post-Cuban Revolution world of OTL something like this might see an American backed coup (Chile) but seeing as this is both before the OTL Cuban Revolution and essentially butterflying it away, I can't see the U.S. pushing as hard as OTL to bring down Agramonte's leftist government. In particular, I imagine Agramonte would not be seeking strong ties with the USSR either and would probably seek healthy relations with the U.S.

I don't know, it would be very interesting indeed. Is there the chance that a right-wing military coup of Agramonte happens? If not, would Agramonte be successful in peaceful, legislative reforms to 1952 Cuba?
 
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