WI: Major Bourbon Victory in the American Revolutionary War

[LMLost9]

France and Spain saw the American Revolutionary War as the perfect opportunity to make Britain weaker, after its victory at the Seven Years War. They miscalculated it a bit, The Thirteen Colonies were now independent, yes, but relations with them had deteriorated, and Britain was not that much weaker. They practically only got Minorca, Tobago and Florida, which was not worthy, since this war ruined French economy.

So, the French win the Battle of The Saintes, following this victory with the capture of Jamaica, the Caribbean is completely controlled by the Bourbons.

OTL Admiral Cordova decided to try to chase lost ships, instead of just intercepting the British navy at Gibraltar, this resulted in Gibraltar receiving supplies and the Spanish Navy failing to chase the British at the Battle of Cape Espartel. Let's say that Cordova intercepts the Royal Navy at Gibraltar, the supply ships are not able to reach Gibraltar, then he manages to force a battle against the Royal navy and wins. With Gibraltar being captured a year later.

OTL in the Indian theater Tipu Sultan defeated a British army at the Battle of Pollilur, he could have followed that victory by sieging Madras, but he preferred not to take the risk. So, they follow their victory, Madras is captured. And to make this even more devastating, Suffren manages to achieve a major naval victory.

Now, Britain is way weaker at the negotiation table, after two naval defeats in the Atlantic there is a real of a Franco-Spanish invasion.
- How could a peace treaty look like with Britain in such a weak position?
- Could we see a revival of the Spanish power after the capture of Gibraltar?
- Would this prevent or delay the French revolution? And if it did not, would Napoleon just get stuck in the Middle East without a major British presence in the Mediterranean? Or would this result in an outright Napoleonic victory by invading a probably weaker Britain?

 

[Umbric Man]

I'd have to think in more detail on a lot of things but some things that strike me off the bat:

-Spain already saw a bit of a revival post-ARW in gaining the Floridas and Minorca, and Charles III actually being a decent king trying to reform the Spanish state and empire. Gibraltar would be a big fucking deal. The key point to remember is that once he dies, things collapse back into laziness and complacency on the part of the administrators. Nonetheless, Gib is such a strong chokepoint that Britain, even with its revived navy (see next point), will have a tough time making it into the Mediterranean even when *Trafalgar happens.

-France will possibly see plenty of money coming in with new West Indian islands, same as Spain with glory contenting the populace, and perhaps delay things - but its navy began to deteriorate the moment the war ended and in TTL it needs to keep so many more ships out there to keep the restless now-French-controlled British West Indies from revolting, much less slave revolts, much less still being the senior partner in the Bourbon Alliance. So in a bit of an irony, that much more money is being spent now on military matters as the peasants continue to starve. Where's all that money going while they're dying, they'll ask...

-In OTL Britain realized how shoddy its Royal Navy had become and upgraded accordingly. This is why it re-achieved total naval dominance starting with Trafalgar in a way the British at the end of 1763 (where they more or less already swept their enemies from the sea) only dreamed of. Losing Gibraltar, Jamaica, and Madras will hasten this like you would not believe. Even if it becomes much more expensive to pay for. Britain WILL re-sweep into the Caribbean and India the moment it can. Dupleix in OTL barely held off Britain and this entirely due to his genius. I doubt any French running those islands and Indian colonies will be as clever.

-I do wonder if Britain will be even nicer to America at the negotiating table than in OTL. Perhaps giving up Ontario and the Great Lakes watershed based on the New York colony's claim of the 45th parallel west to Lake Huron, and then the entire basin for geography's sake. But they will definitely drop Amerindian support in the Northwest Territory and thus no need for the Jay Treaty. Why? They need every friend they can get and already got back to trading well with the newly-independent USA without even the defensive costs. I can see them doing this for ready-made access to New Englander timber alongside starting to hit up the Maritimer forests for cheap wood for Royal Navy ships, and using the open Anglophilia of the north (especially New England) and downplaying the Francophilia of the south (there were plenty of loyalists in the south who unlike in the north, just shrugged and rolled with the new state of affairs than move) to ensure America will be a literal friendly port of call for them when war inevitably happens.

-In short, Britain is seriously weakened, but France and Spain will have both bitten off more than they can chew and will be cursed by the Ancient Regime's idiot rulers coming in to make sure things fall apart anyway by the time of the French Revolutionary era. Spain WILL hold onto Gibraltar hell or high water and its amazing defenses means they can do so even when half-assing it. France will definitely lose all its Caribbean gains and more (essentially OTL on steroids) to a revived Britain, which WILL be a lot more angry and desperate to regain its empire and wealth. Britain will likely still begin working on getting back into India as well - it kept Calcutta but other ports as well and could simply wait it out to begin dividing and conquering Indian petty kingdoms per OTL. Britain will have a much harder time getting into the Mediterranean and so the Franco-Spanish can play around a lot more in there, but that also means they could end up suckered into adventures that cost them far too much for too little (sorta like Napoleon in Egypt in OTL). Perhaps the Franco-Spanish take on the Barbary pirates far sooner than happened in OTL at least?

 

[LMLost9]

I'd have to think in more detail on a lot of things but some things that strike me off the bat:

-Spain already saw a bit of a revival post-ARW in gaining the Floridas and Minorca, and Charles III actually being a decent king trying to reform the Spanish state and empire. Gibraltar would be a big fucking deal. The key point to remember is that once he dies, things collapse back into laziness and complacency on the part of the administrators. Nonetheless, Gib is such a strong chokepoint that Britain, even with its revived navy (see next point), will have a tough time making it into the Mediterranean even when *Trafalgar happens.

-France will possibly see plenty of money coming in with new West Indian islands, same as Spain with glory contenting the populace, and perhaps delay things - but its navy began to deteriorate the moment the war ended and in TTL it needs to keep so many more ships out there to keep the restless now-French-controlled British West Indies from revolting, much less slave revolts, much less still being the senior partner in the Bourbon Alliance. So in a bit of an irony, that much more money is being spent now on military matters as the peasants continue to starve. Where's all that money going while they're dying, they'll ask...

-In OTL Britain realized how shoddy its Royal Navy had become and upgraded accordingly. This is why it re-achieved total naval dominance starting with Trafalgar in a way the British at the end of 1763 (where they more or less already swept their enemies from the sea) only dreamed of. Losing Gibraltar, Jamaica, and Madras will hasten this like you would not believe. Even if it becomes much more expensive to pay for. Britain WILL re-sweep into the Caribbean and India the moment it can. Dupleix in OTL barely held off Britain and this entirely due to his genius. I doubt any French running those islands and Indian colonies will be as clever.

-I do wonder if Britain will be even nicer to America at the negotiating table than in OTL. Perhaps giving up Ontario and the Great Lakes watershed based on the New York colony's claim of the 45th parallel west to Lake Huron, and then the entire basin for geography's sake. But they will definitely drop Amerindian support in the Northwest Territory and thus no need for the Jay Treaty. Why? They need every friend they can get and already got back to trading well with the newly-independent USA without even the defensive costs. I can see them doing this for ready-made access to New Englander timber alongside starting to hit up the Maritimer forests for cheap wood for Royal Navy ships, and using the open Anglophilia of the north (especially New England) and downplaying the Francophilia of the south (there were plenty of loyalists in the south who unlike in the north, just shrugged and rolled with the new state of affairs than move) to ensure America will be a literal friendly port of call for them when war inevitably happens.

-In short, Britain is seriously weakened, but France and Spain will have both bitten off more than they can chew and will be cursed by the Ancient Regime's idiot rulers coming in to make sure things fall apart anyway by the time of the French Revolutionary era. Spain WILL hold onto Gibraltar hell or high water and its amazing defenses means they can do so even when half-assing it. France will definitely lose all its Caribbean gains and more (essentially OTL on steroids) to a revived Britain, which WILL be a lot more angry and desperate to regain its empire and wealth. Britain will likely still begin working on getting back into India as well - it kept Calcutta but other ports as well and could simply wait it out to begin dividing and conquering Indian petty kingdoms per OTL. Britain will have a much harder time getting into the Mediterranean and so the Franco-Spanish can play around a lot more in there, but that also means they could end up suckered into adventures that cost them far too much for too little (sorta like Napoleon in Egypt in OTL). Perhaps the Franco-Spanish take on the Barbary pirates far sooner than happened in OTL at least?

I wonder if Britain would have the money to make a naval reform on that level without Jamaica and Madras. And in this scenario it seems that both Spain and France have stronger navies too, adding that to the fact that the French Mediterranean navy won't have major problems crossing the strait without British Gibraltar. I think Britain might have problem at dealing with them if we have something like a pre-Trafalgar situation of alliances.

I have to agree that the French east India company is most likely doomed, with their only hope being allying with Mysore and the Dutch. But it's harder in the Caribbean, without Jamaica and other isles they have to completely rebuild their power base. And even if they have something like the occupation of the French colonies in a First coalition like situation, it's more likely that is Spain the country that occupies this islands, having a better position to strike first. With Spain just returning them later.

 

[funnyhat]

Jamaica was extremely valuable to the British, as much as Saint-Domingue to the French. It produced more income than the 13 colonies did. I think they would make concessions elsewhere in the peace, which might be quite painful, in order to regain it.

 

[unprincipled peter]

this may be naïve, but it seems to me the importance of Gibraltar is overly stated during the age of sail. It is a threat, but not a water tight gate. Britain never did much with it prior to ARW, and offered it to Spain during the 7YW, and dangled its return a few times since they took it in WoSS. It was only after the long, costly siege of the ARW that they hardened their resolve to keep it. In the age of steam and beyond, it was more of a stop everything base.

During the Revolution/Nap Wars, the reversal of ownership will have effect, but I don't think it is as cut and dried as 'Britain is now denied any presence in the Med'.

Overall effects of the OP scenario:

Recapture of Gibraltar will be a massive moral victory for Spain. Its use as a naval base is important, but in the immediate aftermath of the ARW, it's mostly moral. Britain may seek to revanche this situation and cause a fight with Spain. The whole major loss of this alt ARW may cause Britain to be more bellicose, just as they were at the start of the French and Indian War, when France desperately tried to back down, but Britain wouldn't let them. The Nootka Crisis is a prime opportunity.

Carlos III was an OK King. He blundered quite a bit, most notably in the waning years of the 7YW. The Bourbon Reforms are often cited as being good for the Empire. They weren't. They were good for Spain, but they set in motion a lot of discontent in the colonial sphere, ultimately being a root cause of the disintegration during/after the Peninsular War. Carlos IV was a disaster, and that doesn't change. Overall, Spain likely decays as OTL.

The invasion of Jamaica was supposed to be a joint Spanish/French affair. It was Spanish prior to the British taking it, and they are likely going to want it back. No guarantee it becomes French. Regardless of who gets it, it likely is going to be a mess to govern, and might end up independent and/or cause a chain reaction of discontent throughout the Caribbean slave islands.

France is likely just as broke after the war, and despite making gains, is probably still heading toward its own revolution. As noted, increased obligations probably make things worse.

The big butterfly ripple is the diminished capacity of Britain, but they're still going to be in better shape than the French and the Spanish. If you want to reverse the situation, a better POD is a successful Armada of 1779 leading to mass disruption of the British economy and massive gains (for much reduced cost) by F/S, while the USAmericans get the peace dictated to them, since the shorter war would be won in Europe/Britain, not in the colonies.

 

[DracoLazarus]

Jamaica was extremely valuable to the British, as much as Saint-Domingue to the French. It produced more income than the 13 colonies did. I think they would make concessions elsewhere in the peace, which might be quite painful, in order to regain it.

What would be more nightmarish to the British : French Isle of Wight or French Jamaica ?

 

[funnyhat]

What would be more nightmarish to the British : French Isle of Wight or French Jamaica ?

That would be a very tough decision for them. I think the former would be worse still because it could pose an existential threat, but the loss of Jamaica would hurt the royal treasury much more.

 

[ghappy1000]

With the pods above, the Spanish would have captured Minorca and West Florida despite the pods. The Spanish and the French would capture what was mentioned above in this post, following which, in the Treaty of Paris ending the American Revolutionary War or in the few years between the American and the French Revolutionary Wars, the Spanish, in the best case scenario for them, would get what was mentioned above in this post (Minorca and West Florida) and what was mentioned above (Gibraltar, Madras and Jamaica) plus a Spanish Bahamas (captured as in otl), a Spanish East Florida in exchange for a British Anguilla, Antigua and Barbados (with all three islands being less profitable than Jamaica, non-French in otl since 1700 but potentially French in this timeline since 1782 Anguilla, Antigua and Barbados), Spanish control of all the Falkland Islands in exchange for the French giving up fortification and usage rights to Dunkirk and a Spanish Nootka Sound/ the Pacific Northwest in exchange for Britain getting an ex- French Dominica. This would also mean that even with the extra gains from the American Revolutionary War, the French wouldn't have enough money due to exchanged gains, the prolonged length and increased costs of the American Revolutionary War and would fall into revolution as in otl. If any, such exchanges would leave the United States and Spain fully victorious and France and the Netherlands with the same result as in otl plus a French Dominica from 1783-1790 before being exchanged to Britain in exchange for Britain restoring the Nootka Sound to Spain and just that French net gain within the prolonged American Revolutionary War would result in the French Revolution on schedule. The pod would result in Britain having fewer ships and profits to build its otl post-1782 ships and replacements for them and the pod's losses to the extent of being unable to take advantage of the French Revolution decreasing French naval competency, naval ships through reduced construction from the pod and through reduced French naval competency and losses to sinking or capture in similar conditions to otl and naval victories. The effects on the Spanish colonized Americas would be their loss to Latin American independence and the US.

 

[unprincipled peter]

The effects on the Spanish colonized Americas would be their loss to Latin American independence and the US.

it's possible that the Nap Wars end before they lead to the peninsular war, due to Britain being weaker and not being able to finance everyone opposing France. In this case, the Spanish Empire continues chugging along as is, with no major independence movements for the foreseeable future.

In such a scenario, a successful Napoleonic France pretty much changes the world, with the Spanish Empire remaining intact along with a very different Europe.

 

[funnyhat]

-France will possibly see plenty of money coming in with new West Indian islands, same as Spain with glory contenting the populace, and perhaps delay things - but its navy began to deteriorate the moment the war ended and in TTL it needs to keep so many more ships out there to keep the restless now-French-controlled British West Indies from revolting, much less slave revolts, much less still being the senior partner in the Bourbon Alliance. So in a bit of an irony, that much more money is being spent now on military matters as the peasants continue to starve. Where's all that money going while they're dying, they'll ask...

I'm not sure about this. In this era, the Lesser Antilles mostly had Catholic French settlers, regardless of their ownership. (Even today, over two centuries later, many on these islands speak Antillean creole.) Some accommodation might be needed for the relatively small Protestant population but this had been done in Alsace, even after 1685.

There were a few islands, like Barbados, that were clearly anglophone and Protestant but my guess is they would be left to the British.

With the pods above, the Spanish would have captured Minorca and West Florida despite the pods. The Spanish and the French would capture what was mentioned above in this post, following which, in the Treaty of Paris ending the American Revolutionary War or in the few years between the American and the French Revolutionary Wars, the Spanish, in the best case scenario for them, would get what was mentioned above in this post (Minorca and West Florida) and what was mentioned above (Gibraltar, Madras and Jamaica)

Why would Madras go to Spain? India was France's focus.

 

[LMLost9]

With the pods above, the Spanish would have captured Minorca and West Florida despite the pods. The Spanish and the French would capture what was mentioned above in this post, following which, in the Treaty of Paris ending the American Revolutionary War or in the few years between the American and the French Revolutionary Wars, the Spanish, in the best case scenario for them, would get what was mentioned above in this post (Minorca and West Florida) and what was mentioned above (Gibraltar, Madras and Jamaica) plus a Spanish Bahamas (captured as in otl), a Spanish East Florida in exchange for a British Anguilla, Antigua and Barbados (with all three islands being less profitable than Jamaica, non-French in otl since 1700 but potentially French in this timeline since 1782 Anguilla, Antigua and Barbados), Spanish control of all the Falkland Islands in exchange for the French giving up fortification and usage rights to Dunkirk and a Spanish Nootka Sound/ the Pacific Northwest in exchange for Britain getting an ex- French Dominica. This would also mean that even with the extra gains from the American Revolutionary War, the French wouldn't have enough money due to exchanged gains, the prolonged length and increased costs of the American Revolutionary War and would fall into revolution as in otl. If any, such exchanges would leave the United States and Spain fully victorious and France and the Netherlands with the same result as in otl plus a French Dominica from 1783-1790 before being exchanged to Britain in exchange for Britain restoring the Nootka Sound to Spain and just that French net gain within the prolonged American Revolutionary War would result in the French Revolution on schedule. The pod would result in Britain having fewer ships and profits to build its otl post-1782 ships and replacements for them and the pod's losses to the extent of being unable to take advantage of the French Revolution decreasing French naval competency, naval ships through reduced construction from the pod and through reduced French naval competency and losses to sinking or capture in similar conditions to otl and naval victories. The effects on the Spanish colonized Americas would be their loss to Latin American independence and the US.

So, Spain is richer and is a major naval power, its position in America is also improved. Well, this could at least compensate for the horrible reigns of Charles IV and Ferdinand VII.
France is still in her road to revolution.
Britain is overall weaker and less rich. I guess that it wouldn't be able to afford supporting coalitions against Napoleon, or getting naval supremacy in the extent of OTL post-Trafalgar.

Maybe, the result is something like Britain gives up after the Third Coalition, Napoleon does invade Spain, since her navy is important to keep Britain in check. Napoleonic victory.

 

[LMLost9]

this may be naïve, but it seems to me the importance of Gibraltar is overly stated during the age of sail. It is a threat, but not a water tight gate. Britain never did much with it prior to ARW, and offered it to Spain during the 7YW, and dangled its return a few times since they took it in WoSS. It was only after the long, costly siege of the ARW that they hardened their resolve to keep it. In the age of steam and beyond, it was more of a stop everything base.

It was important in preventing the French navy to reach the French colonies in 1757, and preventing them to reach Brest in 1759.

 

[Umbric Man]

I'm not sure about this. In this era, the Lesser Antilles mostly had Catholic French settlers, regardless of their ownership. (Even today, over two centuries later, many on these islands speak Antillean creole.) Some accommodation might be needed for the relatively small Protestant population but this had been done in Alsace, even after 1685.

Truth, though I do suspect a revived Royal Navy will still sweep them as much as it did the rest of the Caribbean the moment it can.

I do want to say while it's possible to make Spain even more victorious, and even likely with such a POD, I cannot stress just how bad Charles IV and Ferdinand VII were for the Hispanophone world and being fairly conservative with butterflies outside the POD won't change that.

IE: in OTL America came surprisingly close to negotiating/purchasing the territorial results of the Transcontinental Treaty (buying the Floridas/negotiating a southwestern Louisiana border anywhere from the TX-Colorado River to the the Sabine /even a to-the-Pacific border in 1805-1807 with Spain) and Convention of 1818 (annexing the Red River Cession and 49th parallel border to the Pacific in 1807) a decade earlier than actually happened, with the main reasons it didn't occur due to fears of Napoleonic influence (he wanted the USA to purchase them and pushed for it despite Spanish unwillingness since the money'd flow straight to him till he had to suddenly assuage Spain over Minorca, and thus switched to supporting Spain) while the impressment issue destroyed the 49th parallel talk. Here a friendlier Britain without the whole impressment issue (can't afford to push around America as it did in OTL) and a Spain that's beginning to creak from its shoddy kings that could just shrug and sell off its all-but-empty North American claims mentioned above for easy cash (much as, well, Louisiana was to Napoleon) and so America gets non-Mexican War borders and Oregon Territory a good ten-to-forty years earlier than it did. All the more so if Spain's in a "bit off more than it could chew" situation the way the thread agrees France would end up being in.

I'm also optimistic on the Royal Navy reviving and re-sweeping through the Caribbean and India as I mentioned, even a few islands left in the West Indies lets Britain have literal naval bases to begin rebuilding its West India Squadron from, if nothing else. There were plenty of good fighting sailors that had already begun to regain control of and strengthen the Royal Navy by the closing years of the ARW (it's why the Battle of the Saints went excellent for Britain in OTL), even if they don't get to do so yet in TTL's ARW they will still eventually regain control and do whatever it takes to rebuild both naval supremacy and the British Empire alike.

 

[ghappy1000]

I'm not sure about this. In this era, the Lesser Antilles ou mostly had Catholic French settlers, regardless of their ownership. (Even today, over two centuries later, many on these islands speak Antillean creole.) Some accommodation might be needed for the relatively small Protestant population but this had been done in Alsace, even after 1685.

There were a few islands, like Barbados, that were clearly anglophone and Protestant but my guess is they would be left to the British.


Why would Madras go to Spain? India was France's focus.

In this case, Gibraltar, Minorca, both Floridas, Jamaica, the Bahamas and the Falklands would go to Spain then.

Edit: Plus the Nootka Sound in exchange for Dominica as mentioned above.