WI: Lenin never arrived in Petrograd

Barbarossa Rotbart

Let's assume that Lenin's train never arrived in Petrograd. What will change?
One thing is sure: No October Revolution and no Civil War. And there will be no revolution in Germany, because there are no Soviets who send German soldiers home in order to spread communist propaganda.
 

Ptolemaios

Barbarossa Rotbart said:
One thing is sure: No October Revolution and no Civil War.
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Not sure I agree. While it seems likely that the October Revolution is avoided, a Russian Civil War of some kind still seems likely to me, seeing how the provisional government is still going to fail massively and no one agrees on what to do with the country.
 

Barbarossa Rotbart

Ptolemaios said:
Not sure I agree. While it seems likely that the October Revolution is avoided, a Russian Civil War of some kind still seems likely to me, seeing how the provisional government is still going to fail massively and no one agrees on what to do with the country.
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It may to be the most stable government but one reason for the civil war did not happen (the murder of the whole imperial family).
Baconheimer said:
Hoiw would it not arrive, would it just disappear? If it did then there would be some propaganda.
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How it happens does not really matter. Perhaps the train has a catastrophic accident. Point is that Lenin and his closest companions never arrive in Petrograd.
 
Baconheimer

Baconheimer

Barbarossa Rotbart said:
It may to be the most stable government but one reason for the civil war did not happen (the murder of the whole imperial family).

How it happens does not really matter. Perhaps the train has a catastrophic accident. Point is that Lenin and his closest companions never arrive in Petrograd.
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Yeah but now the Soviets can claim it was XYZ nations fault and they are enemys of the motherland.
 

Barbarossa Rotbart

But they will never get in power. why? Because without Lenin and his consorts they lack the leadership for the coup which was called October Revolution in OTL. And I do not know if it was known that he was returning.
 

SenatorChickpea

You do realise that the Romanovs were shot after the civil war broke out, right?


Also, while I think a civil war will happen it seems likely that the Bolsheviks will not be in the driver's seat to the same extent. Without Lenin, their leadership is not so focussed on immediate revolution, and Trotsky is unlikely to get the chance to command the Red Army- or its equivalent.
 

Barbarossa Rotbart

Without Lenin there will be no October Revolution. And there will be no Red Army. And there will be no mass execution of the Romanovs. And for all of you who believe that Nazi Germany would have no problems with Russia, there will be no Nazi Germany because without the October Revolution there will be no revolution in Germany in 1918 and thus there will no unholy union between democratic government and the anti-democratic military. Hitler would have never send to spy on the DAP and transform it into the Nazi Party we all know (and hate).
The wars between Poland and Russia will still happen, but the Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan will stay independent. Why? Even if there is no civil war Russia has already lost the war and the Russian government will need all forces they could get to prevent a civil war. So they will accept nearly any peace offering they can get, even if that means that they will loose Finland, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
 

LOTLOF

The Bolsheviks weren't even a majority of of the Marxist faction. The chances of them seizing power without Lenin's personality to force and shape things is pretty much zero. A coalition government tries to manage an increasingly difficult situation at the same time attempting to implement some liberal reforms while still trying to continue the war and somehow repair the ruined economy.

A coalition government would have been forced to continue the war with Germany as the cost of receiving loans that were desperately needed. The Russian Army was already disintegrating and on the verge of mutiny though. There were strikes all over the country and there was general hunger.

I would expect the total collapse of the army some time in the fall of 1917 with the Germans advancing on Saint Petersburg to force a capitulation. The Russians have no choice but to agree to terms even harsher than OTL Brest-Litovsk. Civil war soon erupts as the various nationalities try to break free.

More than likely when the fighting finally ends some time in the 1920's Russia, minus Finland, the Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic States, and the Caucuses is a ruled by a military dictatorship.
 

wormyguy

Banned
Nobody in the Ukraine actually wanted to secede (pre-Bolshevik takeover, anyway) except the Cossacks and the German minority.
 
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