WI Italy neutral until invasion of Yugoslavia?

[thaddeus]

what if Italy remained neutral during WWII until the April '41 invasion of Yugoslavia? no invasion of Egypt or Greece.

speculating this invasion of Yugoslavia not due to coup d'etat but more of Italian desire? trying to achieve something akin to months earlier division of Romania.

could Italy eclipse Romania and send large army during Operation Barbarossa? here Greece has not been invaded but might Crete be seized as preemptive move?

 

[walmart]

There no reason with the information , Italy had at that time to remain neutral. The expectation was once France folded Britain would also make peace.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

What is the POD? It might prevent France from surrendering like IOTL and of course save a lot of British troops from Greece, Crete, and North Africa for use elsewhere. This would potentially butterfly the Iraqi rebellion as well. Depending on the situation with France Hitler might press the Spain issue to help get at a France that fights on from Algeria. If no Greek campaign then Russia is going to suffer quite a bit worse come June 1941 assuming there isn't any Spanish/French North Africa campaign. If Greece isn't at war there is no reason to seize Crete, especially if Italy isn't actually a belligerent in the wider war. They could send a force to Russia, but likely it would be a 'Blue Division' situation to avoid having Britain declare war on them.

 

[thaddeus]

What is the POD? It might prevent France from surrendering like IOTL and of course save a lot of British troops from Greece, Crete, and North Africa for use elsewhere. This would potentially butterfly the Iraqi rebellion as well. Depending on the situation with France Hitler might press the Spain issue to help get at a France that fights on from Algeria. If no Greek campaign then Russia is going to suffer quite a bit worse come June 1941 assuming there isn't any Spanish/French North Africa campaign. If Greece isn't at war there is no reason to seize Crete, especially if Italy isn't actually a belligerent in the wider war. They could send a force to Russia, but likely it would be a 'Blue Division' situation to avoid having Britain declare war on them.

had in mind that Italy would make every effort short of declaring war to support Germany but also are alarmed over their own fuel situation so have taken the nearly year longer to enter the war stockpiling and maybe retrieving their merchant ships?

my main interest was what size force they could send against USSR without their other misadventures? thought the seizing of Crete might depend on British moves?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

had in mind that Italy would make every effort short of declaring war to support Germany but also are alarmed over their own fuel situation so have taken the nearly year longer to enter the war stockpiling and maybe retrieving their merchant ships?

my main interest was what size force they could send against USSR without their other misadventures? thought the seizing of Crete might depend on British moves?

They'd probably have to limit their commitment to 'volunteers' equipped by the Germans like the Spanish did because declaring war on the USSR would likely mean war with the British/Allies as well. Likely their biggest contribution would be financial then, helping pay for their 'volunteers', license producing certain German gear (like the DB601/5 engine and perhaps Me109s, the former produced there IOTL) to sell/give to Germany, and of course providing labor for German farms and factories which they did IOTL even pre-war, though Britain might take issue with it...but I don't know if they'd be willing to go to war over that.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italo-tedeschi

Italian immigration to Germany resumed after Nazism came to power . This time however it was not a voluntary migration, but a forced recruitment of Italian workers, based on an agreement signed in 1937 between the dictators Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini , to satisfy the need to find cheap labor for the factories German, in exchange for the supply of coal to Italy.

From 1938 to 1942 , in the middle of the Second World War , about 100,000 Italian workers were transferred to Germany, to which were added the 600,000 Italian soldiers taken prisoner after the armistice of 1943 , and taken to forced labor in German concentration camps [2 ] .

Likely Italy, if not planning on joining in the war, would probably sell a bunch of trucks and various military stockpiles (tires, oil, etc.) to Germany.

Yes, any German moves on Greece was entirely dependent on British moves there first, which without Italian invasion wouldn't happen.

 

[thaddeus]

They'd probably have to limit their commitment to 'volunteers' equipped by the Germans like the Spanish did because declaring war on the USSR would likely mean war with the British/Allies as well. Likely their biggest contribution would be financial then, helping pay for their 'volunteers', license producing certain German gear (like the DB601/5 engine and perhaps Me109s, the former produced there IOTL) to sell/give to Germany, and of course providing labor for German farms and factories which they did IOTL even pre-war, though Britain might take issue with it...but I don't know if they'd be willing to go to war over that.

can imagine a scenario in which Mussolini intends to host/broker an end to the war (and receive choice territories for Italy) ruined by UK continuing the fight?

then you have the issue of Soviet aims on the Balkans, Turkish Straits, and at least parts of Turkey itself? since the whole Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and cooperation was a surprise for Italy, they could legitimately be concerned "what's next?"

they might feel if they do not bolster any German invasion of USSR beyond a token division or two, they could awake to find a Soviet pact with Yugoslavia and Bulgaria next door, agreed to by Germany?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

can imagine a scenario in which Mussolini intends to host/broker an end to the war (and receive choice territories for Italy) ruined by UK continuing the fight?

then you have the issue of Soviet aims on the Balkans, Turkish Straits, and at least parts of Turkey itself? since the whole Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and cooperation was a surprise for Italy, they could legitimately be concerned "what's next?"

they might feel if they do not bolster any German invasion of USSR beyond a token division or two, they could awake to find a Soviet pact with Yugoslavia and Bulgaria next door, agreed to by Germany?

No one would take him seriously after not acting to enforce the Munich Agreement and supporting Hitler. Plus of course not trusting Hitler.

Who knows what Mussolini would think about the Soviet-Nazi relationship ITTL.

 

[thaddeus]

No one would take him seriously after not acting to enforce the Munich Agreement and supporting Hitler. Plus of course not trusting Hitler.

Who knows what Mussolini would think about the Soviet-Nazi relationship ITTL.

probably trying to thread the needle too much here? more plausible if Italy declared war per OTL, and simply did not move on Egypt or Greece but only Yugoslavia? (their original target)

 

[Deleted member 1487]

probably trying to thread the needle too much here? more plausible if Italy declared war per OTL, and simply did not move on Egypt or Greece but only Yugoslavia? (their original target)

At least have Mussolini have a better appreciation of the situation as of September 1940. Focus on Malta, ignore Greece and Egypt, listen to the professionals telling him about how unprepared his forces were for war. Join in on Yugoslavia per OTL when that comes around and only then perhaps consider Greece as a target. Of course by him doing that it will unleash massive butterflies, as the Brits have forces freed up for their own operations.

 

[Catspoke]

How does Yugoslavia become a German or Italian target in any scenario where the Italians don't invade Greece. I would think the Germans would want Yugoslavia quiet to invade the Soviets earlier AND/OR in greater strength than OTL?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

How does Yugoslavia become a German or Italian target in any scenario where the Italians don't invade Greece. I would think the Germans would want Yugoslavia quiet to invade the Soviets earlier AND/OR in greater strength than OTL?

The invasion was entirely separate from the Greek issue. They were invaded due to the joining the Axis under pressure and then the military revolting, overthrowing the regent, and dropping out of the Axis alliance. Hitler ordered the invasion then. The Greek invasion was planned months before that and was supposed to be entirely through Bulgaria, while the Yugoslav invasion then meant they could slip through their territory to flank the Metaxas line.

 

[thaddeus]

How does Yugoslavia become a German or Italian target in any scenario where the Italians don't invade Greece. I would think the Germans would want Yugoslavia quiet to invade the Soviets earlier AND/OR in greater strength than OTL?

The invasion was entirely separate from the Greek issue. They were invaded due to the joining the Axis under pressure and then the military revolting, overthrowing the regent, and dropping out of the Axis alliance. Hitler ordered the invasion then. The Greek invasion was planned months before that and was supposed to be entirely through Bulgaria, while the Yugoslav invasion then meant they could slip through their territory to flank the Metaxas line.

IMO Yugoslavia would spin apart during wartime, especially once the invasion of USSR occurs.

of course they were an Italian target during nearly the whole interwar period.

 

[Catspoke]

The invasion was entirely separate from the Greek issue. They were invaded due to the joining the Axis under pressure and then the military revolting, overthrowing the regent, and dropping out of the Axis alliance. Hitler ordered the invasion then. The Greek invasion was planned months before that and was supposed to be entirely through Bulgaria, while the Yugoslav invasion then meant they could slip through their territory to flank the Metaxas line.

It seems weird the Germans force the issue on Yugoslavia in this situation (you could still have an economic and non aggression pact like with Turkey)? and even if they did, would the Yugoslav military revolt without a British force in Greece (and still neutral Greece). This seems butterflyish.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

It seems weird the Germans force the issue on Yugoslavia in this situation (you could still have an economic and non aggression pact like with Turkey)? and even if they did, would the Yugoslav military revolt without a British force in Greece (and still neutral Greece). This seems butterflyish.

That is basically what their entry into the Axis was supposed to be, it wasn't an obligation to join the war. The British force in Greece was only in Crete at the time, they entered the mainland only after Yugoslavia was invaded.
Yes the Yugoslav revolt was coming regardless of British presence, supposedly it had been in planning since 1938:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_coup_d'état#Responsibility_for_the_coup
Supposedly as well the Soviets were involved in some part.

 

[Catspoke]

That is basically what their entry into the Axis was supposed to be, it wasn't an obligation to join the war. The British force in Greece was only in Crete at the time, they entered the mainland only after Yugoslavia was invaded.
Yes the Yugoslav revolt was coming regardless of British presence, supposedly it had been in planning since 1938:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_coup_d'état#Responsibility_for_the_coup
Supposedly as well the Soviets were involved in some part.

Thanks. It does seem the Germans were trying to get some sort friendly agreement with all the countries before launching Barbarossa, and the coup was going to happen anyway. Rather foolish of the Yugoslavs in hindsight.

 

[thaddeus]

Thanks. It does seem the Germans were trying to get some sort friendly agreement with all the countries before launching Barbarossa, and the coup was going to happen anyway. Rather foolish of the Yugoslavs in hindsight.

they did have the unhappy example of Czechoslovakia, and Italian designs on their territory were well known also.

 

[Catspoke]

So if we assume the Italians don't invade Greece or Egypt, but get in on an April 41 take down of Yugoslavia.

I imagine the British would be content to let the Italians sit there on the Libyan frontier and take out East Africa as OTL.

By March 41 or so the British will have a solid force in Egypt and could develop a major attack with 2 armored and 2 infantry divisions which probably just rolls and might just take Tripoli in this TL (German reinforcements also delayed). (I could also see the British delaying until May letting East Africa completely clear up, AND/OR picking on Iraq and Syria before invading Libya).

Perhaps the Germans invade the USSR a bit earlier with Rommels divisions, the division not sunk evacuating Greece, extra JU52s and paratroopers not lost in Crete and a more ready Army Group South.

I can see the Soviets being a bit more alert to an invasion in this time line though.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Thanks. It does seem the Germans were trying to get some sort friendly agreement with all the countries before launching Barbarossa, and the coup was going to happen anyway. Rather foolish of the Yugoslavs in hindsight.

The Yugoslav peoples were fighters and weren't going to just knuckle under. IIRC they suffered the worst proportional population losses of any nation in the war and did quite a lot to contribute to the defeat of the Nazis.

 

[pjmidd]

Logistics , Logistics , Logistics. If you cannot get more to the front, extras are pretty useless. Many times on the Eastern Front, after Barbarossa's great lunge, the Germans were already having to choose if to send men or fuel when trying to get further. Its not an accident that the German advance stopped approximately were the quartermasters said they could only supply to pre Barbarossa. As soon as the Soviets don't collapse and it becomes a long war, extra numbers are just replacements and if in Russia would just use up supplies.

Germany has no need to invade Yugoslavia if its not helping Italy with Greece. Doing so just uses up resources which its already low on. So the POD is a bit silly, if Italy is not attacking Greece, no body is going to invade Yugoslavia regardless of its government. Its only strategic use is a route to Greece. This then also butterflies Bulgaria's entry to the war as, with no need to invade Greece, Germany is not needing transit routes so Bulgaria can stay neutral as it wanted.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Germany has no need to invade Yugoslavia if its not helping Italy with Greece. Doing so just uses up resources which its already low on. So the POD is a bit silly, if Italy is not attacking Greece, no body is going to invade Yugoslavia regardless of its government. Its only strategic use is a route to Greece. This then also butterflies Bulgaria's entry to the war as, with no need to invade Greece, Germany is not needing transit routes so Bulgaria can stay neutral as it wanted.

The invasion of Yugoslavia had nothing to do with Greece and everything to do with the coup, as it took them out of the Axis pact that had already been signed and was aided by the Soviet and British intel services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Yugoslavia#Preparation

Upon hearing news of the coup in Yugoslavia, Hitler called his military advisers to Berlin on 27 March. On the same day as the coup he issued Führer Directive 25, which called for Yugoslavia to be treated as a hostile state.[17] Hitler took the coup as a personal insult, and was so angered that he was determined, in his words, "to destroy Yugoslavia militarily and as a state" (Jugoslawien militärisch und als Staatsgebilde zu zerschlagen),[18] and to do so "with pitiless harshness"[19] and "without waiting for possible declarations of loyalty of the new government".[20]

Citations from the above:

1. Trevor-Roper 1964, p. 108.
2. ^ Dedijer 1956, p. 3.
3. ^ International Military Tribunal, The Trial of German Major War Criminals, Judgement: The Aggression Against Yugoslavia And Greece, p. 32.
4. ^ Shirer 2002, p. 824.