WI: Iranian Invasion of Afghanistan, 1998

TheNordicBrit · Jan 18, 2014

In 1998 the Taliban killed 8 Iranian diplomats, this incident led to public furor in Iran and almost led to war between Afghanistan and Iran, with the Iranians putting 70,000 troops along the border. The UN managed to defuse the situation though and, despite relations never being positive again between Iran and the Taliban, the Iranians never invaded.

What if the UN fails, though? What if Iran invaded Afghanistan in 1998? How would the West react to this?

Would we see some kind of sectarian war, seeing as the Taliban are being so nasty toward the Shia minority, or would the Iranians restrain themselves as it was the Taliban that abused Shia rights, not the Afghan Sunni's as a whole?

usertron2020 · Jan 18, 2014

Saddam is still alive in 1998. Iran has too many other things on its plate. Especially considering that the Great Satan is about to invade Iran. Any minute now. Promise. Really.

fb111a · Jan 19, 2014

There would be a nasty war involving both countries.

Pakistan comes back into the American orbit as a means to support anti-Iranian, pro-U.S. Afghan elements. It could butterfly away 9/11, as Obama bin Laden now has problems closer to "home" to worry about.

Afghanistan becomes a sinkhole for Iran.

mattep74 · Jan 19, 2014

fb111a said:
There would be a nasty war involving both countries.

Pakistan comes back into the American orbit as a means to support anti-Iranian, pro-U.S. Afghan elements. It could butterfly away 9/11, as Obama bin Laden now has problems closer to "home" to worry about.

Afghanistan becomes a sinkhole for Iran.

I would rather think that if Iran invaded they would suddenly find them allied with the USA

usertron2020 · Jan 19, 2014

mattep74 said:
I would rather think that if Iran invaded they would suddenly find them allied with the USA

If the USA were invaded by the Klingon Empire,

you can expect the Grand Ayatollah Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make an announcement that the Klingon Emperor (Kahless the Unforgettable) is the Al-Mahdi (Islamic Deliverer)

TheNordicBrit · Jan 19, 2014

usertron2020 said:
Saddam is still alive in 1998. Iran has too many other things on its plate. Especially considering that the Great Satan is about to invade Iran. Any minute now. Promise. Really.

True, but let's just say that, as can happen so often, the discussions fail hard between Afghanistan and Iran, leading to war, just for the sake of this scenario.

fb111a said:
There would be a nasty war involving both countries.

Pakistan comes back into the American orbit as a means to support anti-Iranian, pro-U.S. Afghan elements. It could butterfly away 9/11, as Obama bin Laden now has problems closer to "home" to worry about.

Afghanistan becomes a sinkhole for Iran.

Would Pakistan and US help each other here? I get that neither like Iran, but on the flip-side they're not really friends either, especially seeing as Pakistan has been supporting the Taliban in the Afghan Civil War.

mattep74 said:
I would rather think that if Iran invaded they would suddenly find them allied with the USA

Indeed, IIRC I've read somewhere that IOTL Iran and the USA began to build relations again before Bush foolishly declared them as being a part of the 'Axis of Evil'. I assume in a world where Iran attacks the Taliban in Afghanistan, the USA would build better relations with the Iranians and Northern Alliance to try and at least get a little bit of input and try to create a pro-USA government in Afghanistan post-war.

mattep74 · Jan 19, 2014

usertron2020 said:
If the USA were invaded by the Klingon Empire, you can expect the Grand Ayatollah Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make an announcement that the Klingon Emperor (Kahless the Unforgettable) is the Al-Mahdi (Islamic Deliverer)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_September_11_attacks#Islamic_world I really dont think so

black angel · Jan 19, 2014

with Iraq to worry about and the basic limits of the Iranian military, a long term occupation isn't in the cards, nor do I think thats something Iran would want, the Taliban was a militia facing a major internal insurgency, Iran has a strong organized and battle tested military, so they can easily clear the Taliban out in a fairly short time, maybe the Power vacuum might allow Ahmad Shah Massoud to take Afghanistan, as a Sunni I'm unsure how much support Iran would be willing to give him, during the Soviet War they supported the Shia Hazara would at the time were getting badly fucked by the Taliban, maybe lots of funding for the Hazara to ethnically cleanse their area and become a de facto state

Dave Howery · Jan 19, 2014

usertron2020 said:
Saddam is still alive in 1998. Iran has too many other things on its plate. Especially considering that the Great Satan is about to invade Iran. Any minute now. Promise. Really.

in 1998? Was there anything beyond the usual cool relations between them and us at that time? Clinton was dealing more with various AQ problems, and from what I remember, Pakistan and Iran both pretty much back burner areas. Afghanistan itself would have been ignored more if not for the fact that AQ and OBL were based there. Iraq was also a problem, mainly because of the no fly zones, but Saddam was pretty much toothless, so far as Iran was concerned... he had nowhere near the capacity to invade them again...

usertron2020 · Jan 19, 2014

usertron2020 said:
If the USA were invaded by the Klingon Empire, you can expect the Grand Ayatollah Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make an announcement that the Klingon Emperor (Kahless the Unforgettable) is the Al-Mahdi (Islamic Deliverer)

mattep74 said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_September_11_attacks#Islamic_world I really dont think so

I really think so.

The Iranian denunciations of September 11th came from the relatively Reformist President Mohammad Khatami, as well as by the populace,

not the Grand Ayatollah Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the power within Iran to make all the presidents of Iran that he likes dance on the heads of as many pins as he wants.

Remember that in that same link you posted the Taliban "condemned" the 9/11 attack, while at the same time denying that UBL had any role in the attacks. As to the Taliban's evacuating all their training camps on September 10th? Nothing to see here!

usertron2020 · Jan 19, 2014

Dave Howery said:
in 1998? Was there anything beyond the usual cool relations between them and us at that time? Clinton was dealing more with various AQ problems, and from what I remember, Pakistan and Iran both pretty much back burner areas. Afghanistan itself would have been ignored more if not for the fact that AQ and OBL were based there. Iraq was also a problem, mainly because of the no fly zones, but Saddam was pretty much toothless, so far as Iran was concerned... he had nowhere near the capacity to invade them again...

I was only being sarcastic, sorry.

But Iran does do a good job of being World's Runner Up #1 to making the USA their ultimate bogeyman (North Korea being World's Champion). By "Iran", I mean the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard, of course. I'm well aware that within Iran's cities at least, the people are far less fanatical (even friendly on a personal level) than those from the provinces, never mind those with a strong vested interest in the existing power structure.