WI Indians survive like Polynesians?

[chornedsnorkack]

Montezuma was dead under eight month after meeting aliens. Atahuallpa in less than ten months. Two years after meeting the ruler, the Spaniards held each capital and kept it.

If they had been lucky somehow? A common retort is that the introduced illnesses would have promptly brought them down anyway.

Well, how did Polynesians fare?

New data reveals severe impact of European contact with Pacific islands

Pacific island nations suffered severe depopulation from introduced diseases as a consequence of contact with European vessels, a new study from The Australian National University shows. The research, published in the Journal of Archaeological Science, indicates population declines were a lot...

www.eurekalert.org

Polynesia was massively depopulated - and yet the survivors were not annexed by Captain Cook and his contemporaries back in 18th century. Pomare Dynasty was finally annexed in 1880. Kamehameha Dynasty overthrown in 1893. Tupou Dynasty of Tonga keeps ruling. Despite the massive depopulation.

What PoD would be needed for Aztec Empire to survive a century after conquest, like Pomares or Kamehamehas did? To survive to present, like Tupous?

 

[Mildtryth]

Montezuma was dead under eight month after meeting aliens. Atahuallpa in less than ten months. Two years after meeting the ruler, the Spaniards held each capital and kept it.

If they had been lucky somehow? A common retort is that the introduced illnesses would have promptly brought them down anyway.

Well, how did Polynesians fare?

New data reveals severe impact of European contact with Pacific islands

Pacific island nations suffered severe depopulation from introduced diseases as a consequence of contact with European vessels, a new study from The Australian National University shows. The research, published in the Journal of Archaeological Science, indicates population declines were a lot...

www.eurekalert.org

Polynesia was massively depopulated - and yet the survivors were not annexed by Captain Cook and his contemporaries back in 18th century. Pomare Dynasty was finally annexed in 1880. Kamehameha Dynasty overthrown in 1893. Tupou Dynasty of Tonga keeps ruling. Despite the massive depopulation.

What PoD would be needed for Aztec Empire to survive a century after conquest, like Pomares or Kamehamehas did? To survive to present, like Tupous?

The problem with the Azetcs and Incas was that when such epidemics happened, either the europeans were already in their land or the diseases came just before they did. On Polynesia, these epidemics seem to have hit just after the Europeans left, and in any case, for the 18th-century Europeans, traveling to Oceania was much harder than the travels that the Spanish had to do, since the Spanish didn't have to cross the entire Atlantic - Cortés' expedition set off from Cuba and Pizarro's from Panama.

 

[Domz]

Montezuma was dead under eight month after meeting aliens. Atahuallpa in less than ten months. Two years after meeting the ruler, the Spaniards held each capital and kept it.

If they had been lucky somehow? A common retort is that the introduced illnesses would have promptly brought them down anyway.

Well, how did Polynesians fare?

New data reveals severe impact of European contact with Pacific islands

Pacific island nations suffered severe depopulation from introduced diseases as a consequence of contact with European vessels, a new study from The Australian National University shows. The research, published in the Journal of Archaeological Science, indicates population declines were a lot...

www.eurekalert.org

Polynesia was massively depopulated - and yet the survivors were not annexed by Captain Cook and his contemporaries back in 18th century. Pomare Dynasty was finally annexed in 1880. Kamehameha Dynasty overthrown in 1893. Tupou Dynasty of Tonga keeps ruling. Despite the massive depopulation.

What PoD would be needed for Aztec Empire to survive a century after conquest, like Pomares or Kamehamehas did? To survive to present, like Tupous?

Have the Polynesians be more successful in sailing to the Americas (and thereby spread Old World diseases) before the Europeans arrive. Creates two interesting what ifs.

 

[Jaehaerys48]

The Polynesian Islands are more remote and less rich in resources and land for settlement. Colonial powers were often thus relatively more willing to leave them in the charge of relatively friendly rulers.

The Cortes expedition failing somehow (which isn’t too hard to imagine) would likely give the Aztecs a few more years. For a longer term survival I’d say that there would have probably have to have been major events in Europe which would slow Spanish colonialism and prevent another nation from filling the void. I’m not sure what could do that, though. Maybe a much weaker/fractured Iberian Peninsula.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

The Cortes expedition failing somehow (which isn’t too hard to imagine) would likely give the Aztecs a few more years. For a longer term survival I’d say that there would have probably have to have been major events in Europe which would slow Spanish colonialism and prevent another nation from filling the void. I’m not sure what could do that, though. Maybe a much weaker/fractured Iberian Peninsula.

Cortes was seriously overstepping his mandate IOTL -- his original orders had been to trade with the natives and maybe establish a factory on the coast, not to go off on a conquering spree. If he fails, it's quite conceivable that the Spanish wouldn't have tried to launch another expedition for a very long time, particularly if Cortes' lack of success is taken as a sign that Mesoamerica is too strong to conquer with the kind of forces Spain can send over there.