WI: Germany Mexico alliance in World War 1
- Thread starter THeaven
- Start date
RightHoJeeves
Banned
The only way this is remotely plausible is if Mexico is somehow being ruled by utterly insane revanchists who are completely delusional about their prospects in a military conflict with the United States.
As it was the not-insane Carranza government politely listened to the German offer, did a brief inquiry to the general staff about the situation and concluded that it would be suicide as Germany has no way of providing material support or otherwise guaranteeing their part in the bargain.
As it was the not-insane Carranza government politely listened to the German offer, did a brief inquiry to the general staff about the situation and concluded that it would be suicide as Germany has no way of providing material support or otherwise guaranteeing their part in the bargain.
It may seem strange that the Germans could ever believe that the Mexicans would accept their proposal in the Zimmerman Telegram, given that Mexico was obviously no match for the US militarily. However, perhaps they knew that Carranza (or at the very least carrancistas) supported the "Plan de San Diego" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_of_San_Diego raids into Texas, and mistakenly thought that meant he was really intent on a Reconquista.
If they did, they of course misjudged Carranza entirely. Carranza's aim was not to reconquer the Southwest US but to get US diplomatic recognition and arms--and he succeeded! See my explanation at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...d-the-plan-de-san-diego.420152/#post-15118102
Of course the Germans may also have reasoned that while the chances of Carrranza accepting were near-zero, the proposal--even if intercepted-- couldn't do any harm, since the US was almost certain to enter the World War anyway once Germany renewed unrestricted submarine warfare.
If they did, they of course misjudged Carranza entirely. Carranza's aim was not to reconquer the Southwest US but to get US diplomatic recognition and arms--and he succeeded! See my explanation at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...d-the-plan-de-san-diego.420152/#post-15118102
Of course the Germans may also have reasoned that while the chances of Carrranza accepting were near-zero, the proposal--even if intercepted-- couldn't do any harm, since the US was almost certain to enter the World War anyway once Germany renewed unrestricted submarine warfare.
Last edited:
Riain
Banned
I believe that the issue is not as bizarre as it seems. The US had been invading Mexico on and off since 1914, and for their part Mexican 'parties' to the infighting there had spilled over the border on several occasions, leaving aside the likes of plan San Diego. By mid 1916 the US had enacted legislation to expand its military, had mobilised all 12 NG divisions on the Mexican border and was undertaking the Punitive Expedition with 1 of the 3 Regular Army divisions. From this perspective the US - Mexican relationship was virtually in a state of war anyway, actual war would be worse by degrees rather than breaking a nice comfortable peace, so the step is not massive.
Another factor is that the RN was getting something like 70-80% of its oil supplies from Mexico. Apparently there was a plan or idea in place for the US or Britain to seize this oilfield if events in Mexico threatened to disrupt supply of oil. Again, when coupled with the Punitive Expedition, this threat shows the pressure Mexico was under from the US and Britain as well I think. So talk of war isn't some crazy idea out of nowhere, it fits the situation at the time.
I believe that if Mexico did go to war then she and Germany would only be nominal allies. Mexico would cut off the oil to Britain and Germany would send what support she could, perhaps Uboats to operate in the carribean.
Another factor is that the RN was getting something like 70-80% of its oil supplies from Mexico. Apparently there was a plan or idea in place for the US or Britain to seize this oilfield if events in Mexico threatened to disrupt supply of oil. Again, when coupled with the Punitive Expedition, this threat shows the pressure Mexico was under from the US and Britain as well I think. So talk of war isn't some crazy idea out of nowhere, it fits the situation at the time.
I believe that if Mexico did go to war then she and Germany would only be nominal allies. Mexico would cut off the oil to Britain and Germany would send what support she could, perhaps Uboats to operate in the carribean.