WI: Germany Goes For Poland In 1936?

[Cymraeg]

These are mostly paper units at this point and absolutely not fully equipped and with vastly inferior preperation and training. Even if this was not the case this would still be a wholly inadequate force. Roughly half the one that invaded poland and a significant part of it would not be able to partake.

In addition: the heaviest tank in service with the Heer in 1936 in any meaningful numbers is the Panzer I. The Panzer II was about to go into mass production, the first Panzer III didn't leave the production lines until 1937 and the Panzer IV barely made it off the production line in 1936.
So there are no floods of panzers to speed the way into Poland.
Any anti-tank gun or even anti-tank rifle can have a PzI for breakfast.
A German invasion of Poland in 1936 will not go far and will probably end up with Hitler getting arrested by annoyed Heer officers.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

These are mostly paper units at this point and absolutely not fully equipped and with vastly inferior preperation and training. Even if this was not the case this would still be a wholly inadequate force. Roughly half the one that invaded poland and a significant part of it would not be able to partake.

It's not like the Poles in 36 were as strong as what they were in 39 either though.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

In addition: the heaviest tank in service with the Heer in 1936 in any meaningful numbers is the Panzer I. The Panzer II was about to go into mass production, the first Panzer III didn't leave the production lines until 1937 and the Panzer IV barely made it off the production line in 1936.
So there are no floods of panzers to speed the way into Poland.
Any anti-tank gun or even anti-tank rifle can have a PzI for breakfast.
A German invasion of Poland in 1936 will not go far and will probably end up with Hitler getting arrested by annoyed Heer officers.

And the Poles wouldn't have any of the 7TP and half the TKS's they had in 39.

 

[minhow]

Although not really a accurate portrayal of what would happen, I was inspired by playing HOI4 as Germany, taking Rhineland and Poland in 1936, and Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938, without being at war with the Allies or Soviets

Invading Poland early is a bad strategy, the best strategy is to justify on netherlands first and take all their colonies, for infinite oil, aluminium and rubber. In old patches you could puppet them, put all troops there and oppose Hitler, and will you have all your army on your side, after the civil war.

But on topic, considering the state of german military forces, will be very hard to defeat Poland, but the germans can win by population and industrial advantage.

 

[Orcbuster]

It's not like the Poles in 36 were as strong as what they were in 39 either though.

The difference isn't close to making up for it. To put it into perspective the german army in 1936 is 5-6 times smaller in terms of manpower than it is in 39. For the Luftwaffe the numbers are even more skewed.

This proposal just isn't sensible.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

In addition: the heaviest tank in service with the Heer in 1936 in any meaningful numbers is the Panzer I. The Panzer II was about to go into mass production, the first Panzer III didn't leave the production lines until 1937 and the Panzer IV barely made it off the production line in 1936.
So there are no floods of panzers to speed the way into Poland.
Any anti-tank gun or even anti-tank rifle can have a PzI for breakfast.
A German invasion of Poland in 1936 will not go far and will probably end up with Hitler getting arrested by annoyed Heer officers.

The Polish army had its (very good) Wz 35 AT rifle in 1935, so they would have been available for adding additional air vents to the Panzer 1s.

Except that I noted in post #16 that the three panzer divisions weren't ready for exercises in September 1936, so they are also not combat ready.

In March 1938, the divisions used in the Anschluss were a complete shambles. Search for 'Hitler's Tet Offensive' [1]and 'nahezu katastrophal' [2] for an interesting description of how they performed.

[1] winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu
[2] almost catastrophic - a description of their performance

 

[lionhead]

It's not like the Poles in 36 were as strong as what they were in 39 either though.

but they are fighting a defensive war. Huge difference. All they have to do is hold out, retreat, hold out again. The Germans need to keep moving, keep momentum, not lose too many vehicles, they need to win and fast.

 

[Monk78]

Germany had a 600,000 man army in 1936.

I think that although Germany would struggle in the first weeks of a 1936 German -Polish War, after mobilization Germany could attrition Poland.

And Soviets can help them in the East too

 

[Post]

Invading Poland early is a bad strategy, the best strategy is to justify on netherlands first and take all their colonies, for infinite oil, aluminium and rubber. In old patches you could puppet them, put all troops there and oppose Hitler, and will you have all your army on your side, after the civil war.

How is Germany going to take the dutch colonies (or in other words: will the British allow them to do so)?

But even if the Germans get the dutch colonies, as soon as they're at war with the UK nothing will come from those colonies to Germany.

And your last sentence is very close to ASB, since the army vowed allegiance to Hitler in 1934. So that's not going to happen.

 

[minhow]

How is Germany going to take the dutch colonies (or in other words: will the British allow them to do so)?

But even if the Germans get the dutch colonies, as soon as they're at war with the UK nothing will come from those colonies to Germany.

And your last sentence is very close to ASB, since the army vowed allegiance to Hitler in 1934. So that's not going to happen.

This first part is a Hoi4 strategy that I do. The OP based this post on what he did on Hoi4, and sugested him a game strategy, that is even more powerful. This part was only a game discursion.

 

[prester.john208]

These are mostly paper units at this point and absolutely not fully equipped and with vastly inferior preperation and training. Even if this was not the case this would still be a wholly inadequate force. Roughly half the one that invaded poland and a significant part of it would not be able to partake.

At least half of the units would have to watch the French, Austrian and Czech borders. They would get stripped of equipment to provide equipment for the invasion force.

The construction of the Siegfried Line has just begun.

 

[Histor32]

I think the poles fall back a little and then regroup and Germany loses

Poland was stronger than Germany in 36, Germany was a paper tiger at the time.

Germany couldn't go in on Poland and level nothing to defend the French border. And if the French smell blood . ...

 

[Garrison]

I think the poles fall back a little and then regroup and Germany loses

Poland was stronger than Germany in 36, Germany was a paper tiger at the time.

Germany couldn't go in on Poland and level nothing to defend the French border. And if the French smell blood . ...

And there is no German defensive line in the west in 1936, if I remember correctly the Westwall didn't start construction until 1938. Also a major factor in the failure of the Saar offensive in 1939 was French fear of Paris being bombed by the Luftwaffe, much less of a concern in 1936.
Even if the Pole conduct their defence as badly as France in 1940 and the British and French don't immediately intervene a German victory in Poland in 1936, with Hitler putting his racial policies into full effect, should do wonders for their rearmament programs.

 

[prester.john208]

I think the poles fall back a little and then regroup and Germany loses

Poland was stronger than Germany in 36, Germany was a paper tiger at the time.

Germany couldn't go in on Poland and level nothing to defend the French border. And if the French smell blood . ...

The Czechs and Austria might join in with their 20+ divisions against a few regiments of border guards, the Stahl Helm and the remnants of the SA.

 

[prester.john208]

The Polish army had its (very good) Wz 35 AT rifle in 1935, so they would have been available for adding additional air vents to the Panzer 1s.

Except that I noted in post #16 that the three panzer divisions weren't ready for exercises in September 1936, so they are also not combat ready.

In March 1938, the divisions used in the Anschluss were a complete shambles. Search for 'Hitler's Tet Offensive' [1]and 'nahezu katastrophal' [2] for an interesting description of how they performed.

[1] winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu
[2] almost catastrophic - a description of their performance

Interesting article, well worth the read. Based on that, it looks like the Poles would have handed them their heads.
Minor quibble the author confused the sizes of the Austrian and Czech armies.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

I think this idea of other countries joining in to gang up on Germany is based off hindsight and wishful thinking, not the thinking of the time.

If the French didn't stand up for the Rhineland in 36, they aren't going to stand up for Poland in 36.

If anything, a 36 German-Polish War that would grind down into a war of attrition would have other countries would stay out of the conflict to buy themselves time and let the two countries destroy each other.

Besides, it's not like the Czechs or Austrians were friends with the Poles during this time.

A 36 war wouldn't be a war of Blitzkrieg either, so it's not like the Poles could truly "defeat" the Germans or invade Germany. Germany has the industry and manpower to eventually grind down the Poles.

 

[prester.john208]

I think this idea of other countries joining in to gang up on Germany is based off hindsight and wishful thinking, not the thinking of the time.

If the French didn't stand up for the Rhineland in 36, they aren't going to stand up for Poland in 36.

If anything, a 36 German-Polish War that would grind down into a war of attrition would have other countries would stay out of the conflict to buy themselves time and let the two countries destroy each other.

Besides, it's not like the Czechs or Austrians were friends with the Poles during this time.

A 36 war wouldn't be a war of Blitzkrieg either, so it's not like the Poles could truly "defeat" the Germans or invade Germany. Germany has the industry and manpower to eventually grind down the Poles.

The Little Entente still existed in 1936. Austria's leader has no love for Hitler.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

The Little Entente still existed in 1936. Austria's leader has no love for Hitler.

It's the perfect time for Mussolini to provide weapons and other military aid to Austria to help it stay independent.

And while Czechoslovakia might not be friends with Poland, they might well fancy putting disputed territory firmly under Czech control if it's not strongly guarded by Germany, .

Also, Poland may not have active military support, but unless they've recently upset Hungary and Romania, they provide a route for supplying weapons from France or Italy (or Czechoslovakia). For that matter, Soviet weapons and tanks might start being supplied through the eastern border and end with this timeline's equivalent of the SCW weapons evaluation occuring in Poland [1].

The impact on Spain is also interesting.Would the absence of the Condor legion or Italian support simply slow Franco's victory or lead to a stalemate and a divided Spain?

[1] my money's on the T26s and BTs for this one.

 

[lionhead]

I think this idea of other countries joining in to gang up on Germany is based off hindsight and wishful thinking, not the thinking of the time.

If the French didn't stand up for the Rhineland in 36, they aren't going to stand up for Poland in 36.

If anything, a 36 German-Polish War that would grind down into a war of attrition would have other countries would stay out of the conflict to buy themselves time and let the two countries destroy each other.

Besides, it's not like the Czechs or Austrians were friends with the Poles during this time.

A 36 war wouldn't be a war of Blitzkrieg either, so it's not like the Poles could truly "defeat" the Germans or invade Germany. Germany has the industry and manpower to eventually grind down the Poles.

i think you are comparing apples and oranges. As if the reoccupation of the Rhineland in any way compares to an unprovoked invasion of a sovereign nation.

You are forgetting WWI, amongst other things.