WI: Elphinstone dies at Kabul

In OTL, Major General Elphinstone ordered a disastrous retreat from Kabul in 1842, against the advice of his officers, who wanted to hole up in a nearby fort and wait for reinforcements. He didn't, and the illusion of British invincibility was shattered (and he got a whole lot of people killed).

The revolt that lead to the retreat began on 2 November 1841, and the retreat did not begin until 6 January, 1842, plenty of time for Elphinstone to have been shot, fall off his horse, get much sicker than he already was, or even just pass away in his sleep. This would (I think) leave Brigadier John Shelton in command, and he most likely would have only gone as far as Bala Hissar. If Elphinstone dies before the New Year, when he made his very ill-advised agreement with the Afgani, they'd even still have all their powder and other supplies.

Could they have held out until relief arrived (which might not have gotten to them before spring)?

Given the comments that 'the men remember Kabul' during the India Mutiny, what long-term effects might a successful hold out and relief at Bala Hissar have had on British India?
 
Would Sir Willoughby Cotton have fared better than Elphinstone if he had not been replaced?

If by January 1842 the British army ended up in Bala Hissar, I suppose it's a question of time until an army comes to relieve him. How long is going to take for Lord Auckland to get wind of what is going on in Kabul and to organize a relief army? How long is to take the relief force to reach Kabul? Two months? Three? Can the surrouded force resist for so long?

IF they manage to survive, "remember Bala Hissar!" can be a powerful moto.
 
I just finished this a few days ago

https://play.google.com/store/books...US&gclid=CJGlrefp4c4CFQlwMgodbMsMSg&gclsrc=ds

The British managed to lose their entire commissary and nearly all of their supplies almost as soon as the first rioting occurred.... sticking it out became a serious problem at that point. The book talks about the just appalling command divisions and the British political officers demanding that the Army stay and the complete lack of initiative at nearly every level in taking active steps to prepare the force for defense.

All I can say is that losing Elphinstone probably wouldn't have made things worse but having lost their supplies and completely at the mercy (in terms of food and fodder) of the Afghanis, I don't see how the British could have stayed.
 
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