WI Chris Hani Lives

[Hannibal.Caesar]

Chris Hani, the leader of the South African Communist Party and the head of the armed wing of Mandela's ANC organization was assassinated in 1993. His assassination nearly derailed the negotiations to end apartheid, and has had a marked affect on South Africa since.

WI Hani had somehow avoided his assassin or had survived the attack? What changes could we see in South Africa (i.e., he was Mandela's assumed successor)?

 

[Julius Vogel]

I don't really know much about the man's character, but one change would be that the ruling coalition might become a tad less monolithic, having a leader come from the SACP rather than the ANC proper itself. How that would change things generally I don't know.

Assuming all else goes roughly similar I would suspect Hani wouldn't have pulled a Mbeki re HIV/AIDS. Re Zimbabwe, well, I guess this depends on why you think SA holds the position it does.

 

[Marius]

I don't really know much about the man's character, but one change would be that the ruling coalition might become a tad less monolithic, having a leader come from the SACP rather than the ANC proper itself. How that would change things generally I don't know.

Assuming all else goes roughly similar I would suspect Hani wouldn't have pulled a Mbeki re HIV/AIDS. Re Zimbabwe, well, I guess this depends on why you think SA holds the position it does.

Regarding your first comment, Hani's membership of the SACP would have made no difference. Practically every senior member of the ANC then (and now) was, or is a member of the Communist Party, and the two are still in an alliance, with the biggest trade union federation, Cosatu. Despite the SACP's influence in the ANC, the policies followed post-1994 could have come straight out of Neo-Liberalism for Dummies.

However, Hani was definitely more of a man of a people, and Mbeki would have faced a massive scrap with Hani to become Deputy President of the ANC. There is a conspiracy theory that Mbeki was in some way involved in the murder.

With Aids and so on, I don't know if Hani would have followed the Mbeki doctrine. He seemed independent minded, and not as race conscious as Mbeki, so I think things may have been different if Hani had lived. Perhaps we would have had a Hani presidency from 1999-2009, with a more orderly transition than we are having now. A Hani Presidency may also butterfly away Zuma Deputy Presidency, and may have an impact on how the arms deal plays out.

 

[Julius Vogel]

It was my understanding that Hani was a member of the SACP first, as well as being a member of the wider ANC/coalition. Anyway, that bit about him making for a less monolithic party coalition was just speculation on my part, he could have been the biggest centraliser of them all for all I know. Sometimes I really wish I was back at university, we had a pretty good collection of books and other material on the early 90s period in SA

Re the Aids bit, well Mbeki was straying way outside the norm on that issue, surely the easier/more likely position to take would be the one everyone else follows.

 

[Marius]

It was my understanding that Hani was a member of the SACP first, as well as being a member of the wider ANC/coalition. Anyway, that bit about him making for a less monolithic party coalition was just speculation on my part, he could have been the biggest centraliser of them all for all I know. Sometimes I really wish I was back at university, we had a pretty good collection of books and other material on the early 90s period in SA

Re the Aids bit, well Mbeki was straying way outside the norm on that issue, surely the easier/more likely position to take would be the one everyone else follows.

The two biggest supporters of privatisation and neo-liberal reform in the Mbeki cabinet were Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi and Alec Erwin, who had been stalwarts of the SACP in the '80s. People's political views changed very quickly when confronted with the real world, and the collapse of communism.

Re: Mbeki and Aids, if Hani lives, he may become Deputy President, and he won't see a racist under every bed, like Mbeki, which may mean he won't be as paranoid about Aids being a "black" disease like Mbeki was. The majority position under Hani may well be the global mainstream position.

 

[Julius Vogel]

I had to do a bit of reading back in the day on the Treatment Action Campaign line of cases, and based on that at least it did seem that even amongst the party/coalition itself Mbeki and his views were outside of the local norm, let alone in wider society or the world. So I can't imagine that the odds would be high for anyone else to gravitate to the Mbeki position.