WI Charles V dies shortly before settling inheritance?

[Admiral Matt]

I've been interested in alternate partitions of the unwieldly empire under Charles V for some time. Particularly, the pragmatic sanction assigning the Seventeen Provinces of the Netherlands to his son Philip shaped virtually all of European history over the next few centuries.

Rather than struggling to change the decision-making or personalities involved, it finally occurred to me that I could get what I was looking for if Charles V simply died sometime around 1548, just before beginning to settle his inheritance.

As I understand it, Philip would automatically inherit the Spanish kingdoms, which entailed the crowns of Sicily and Naples, and so also Sardinia. Clearly the Spanish empire goes along with this. All the possessions within the Holy Roman Empire, including Milan, would go to Charles' brother Ferdinand. My idea was that Ferdinand might later cede Milan to his nephew.

That leaves the Netherlands and Franche-Comte under the flexible and tolerant state-capacity-builder Ferdinand instead of the warrior-for-a-Catholic-Europe Philip, who essentially caused the Dutch revolt. It also displaces Philip's focus on European conflict towards France and particularly Italy.

It also has unpredictable implications for the OTL Hapsburg succession and inbreeding schemes, which were arranged under Charles. The house is still very likely to indulge in multiple dynastic marriages to maintain the two sides of the House, but it may be less extensive and would be different in detail to OTL.

Thoughts?

 

[Admiral Matt]

This isn't at all among my areas of competence, and I have several other areas I'd prioritize to study, but feeling out what might happen in the lifetime of Philip is very tempting.

Seems like this circumstance could easily cost him the English marriage, which raises the question of who else it could be if not Queen Mary.

Our Sebastian of Portugal wouldn't necessarily even be born, never mind die without issue in a timely fashion. A Portuguese match would certainly be desirable if one came to be. What Philip would do with a united Iberia and half of Italy without the Dutch distraction is an interesting question... Support his uncle against Protestants and France, certainly. Otherwise extending his grip in Italy and fighting the Ottomans appear in character.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@isabella @Jan Olbracht @Vitruvius

 

[isabella]

I've been interested in alternate partitions of the unwieldly empire under Charles V for some time. Particularly, the pragmatic sanction assigning the Seventeen Provinces of the Netherlands to his son Philip shaped virtually all of European history over the next few centuries.

Rather than struggling to change the decision-making or personalities involved, it finally occurred to me that I could get what I was looking for if Charles V simply died sometime around 1548, just before beginning to settle his inheritance.

As I understand it, Philip would automatically inherit the Spanish kingdoms, which entailed the crowns of Sicily and Naples, and so also Sardinia. Clearly the Spanish empire goes along with this. All the possessions within the Holy Roman Empire, including Milan, would go to Charles' brother Ferdinand. My idea was that Ferdinand might later cede Milan to his nephew.

That leaves the Netherlands and Franche-Comte under the flexible and tolerant state-capacity-builder Ferdinand instead of the warrior-for-a-Catholic-Europe Philip, who essentially caused the Dutch revolt. It also displaces Philip's focus on European conflict towards France and particularly Italy.

It also has unpredictable implications for the OTL Hapsburg succession and inbreeding schemes, which were arranged under Charles. The house is still very likely to indulge in multiple dynastic marriages to maintain the two sides of the House, but it may be less extensive and would be different in detail to OTL.

Thoughts?

Ferdinand with three sons of his own would have exactly ZERO reasons for giving Milan to Philip, but the latter would still get the Netherlands as OTL, unless Charles had willed them to Maria.

 

[Codae]

Ferdinand with three sons of his own would have exactly ZERO reasons for giving Milan to Philip, but the latter would still get the Netherlands as OTL, unless Charles had willed them to Maria.

That's because it's a matter of primogeniture everywhere (not counting the Imperial election) by default, with the ancestral Habsburg territories making a special case, right?

 

[AsukaEMP]

The Pragmatic Sanction of 1549 didn't assign the Netherlands to Philip. Under the male-preference primogeniture, which was already de facto practised in every Dutch province, Philip's inheritance was never up for debate. What it actually did was declare that the Netherlands were indivisible and would always be inherited as one entity, and in order to achieve this it streamline the inheritance laws for women. In most provinces daughters and other female heirs already had a long history of inheriting in absence of male descendants, but the effective application could differ (personal rule, co-rule, ruling in name of a son, or letting their husband rule) and some were in a legal grey zone. The pragmatic sanction cleared this up so that in the future random male relatives would not be able to lay claim to e.g. Guelders if a daughter or sister were to inherit. Furthermore it prevented any rulers from carving the region up again by giving away individual territories to brothers or younger sons.

In Milan sons were also first in the line of succession, Ferdinand isn't getting that either unless Philip dies too. The only reason Ferdinand got Austria is because Charles explicitly gave it to him.

But there is actually a way to get Milan and the Netherlands under Austrian rule... If Philip II dies without any children of his own all his lands would pass to his oldest sister: Maria of Austria, the wife of Ferdinand's oldest son Maximilian II. Maria and Maximilian now rule over Charles' unwieldy empire once more, and how they partition it is up to them to decide. If they want the Netherlands then great, they can keep it. But it's important to remember that at the end of the day Austria is going to lose the Netherlands again the second one of its rulers has only daughters.​

 

[Janprimus]

That's because it's a matter of primogeniture everywhere (not counting the Imperial election) by default, with the ancestral Habsburg territories making a special case, right?

Yes, though inheritance treaties and wills were sometimes made. The Austrian Hereditary Lands were like many German Lands held in joint-rule. In the period before the marriage of Ferdinand of Austria with Anna of Bohemia & Hungary negotiated over the inheritance by Primogeniture Charles V was entitled to the Castille, Aragon and the Burgundian Lands.
Only in the Austrian Hereditary Lands both Charles V and Ferdinand had their share, IIRC Charles V was entitled to at least Tyrol and Further Austria, Ferdinand to Austria proper and Inner Austria (Styria, Carinthia, Carniola, the Windic March, Gorizia (Görz) and the county of Mitterburg (inner Istria). In the marriage negotiations with the Jagiellons the Habsburg Archduke, who would marry Anna of Bohemia & Hungary, would also have substantial lands.
Ferdinand aimed for more, probably the Austrian & Burgundian Lands and thus the Empire, Charles eventually also gave Ferdinand his Austrian share, also due to the fact that the Austrian Estates didn't like such a division.

By 1548 this is long settled, but Charles V did change is mind a lot, whether he would will the Burgundian Lands to his only daughter Mary, who would marry the eldest son of Ferdinand, Maximilian II. That could be possible, it will mean Mary and Maximilian will have their court in Brussels. This in turn will eventually boost the main Austrian branch, since like Bohemia, Hungary (with Croatia) and Austria proper, the Burgundian Lands will stay with the eldest male (and in absence of men female) of their line.

 

[Janprimus]

I've been interested in alternate partitions of the unwieldly empire under Charles V for some time. Particularly, the pragmatic sanction assigning the Seventeen Provinces of the Netherlands to his son Philip shaped virtually all of European history over the next few centuries.

Rather than struggling to change the decision-making or personalities involved, it finally occurred to me that I could get what I was looking for if Charles V simply died sometime around 1548, just before beginning to settle his inheritance.

Not for anything, as noted the Austrian question was settled long before this point.

As I understand it, Philip would automatically inherit the Spanish kingdoms, which entailed the crowns of Sicily and Naples, and so also Sardinia. Clearly the Spanish empire goes along with this. All the possessions within the Holy Roman Empire, including Milan, would go to Charles' brother Ferdinand. My idea was that Ferdinand might later cede Milan to his nephew.

That leaves the Netherlands and Franche-Comte under the flexible and tolerant state-capacity-builder Ferdinand instead of the warrior-for-a-Catholic-Europe Philip, who essentially caused the Dutch revolt. It also displaces Philip's focus on European conflict towards France and particularly Italy.

No the Burgundian Lands were under Male Preference Primogeniture, Charles might have willed them to his daughter Mary. For Ferdinand to get them you need to go much further back than 1548.

It also has unpredictable implications for the OTL Hapsburg succession and inbreeding schemes, which were arranged under Charles. The house is still very likely to indulge in multiple dynastic marriages to maintain the two sides of the House, but it may be less extensive and would be different in detail to OTL.

Marriages between the branches is as much on Ferdinand as it is on Charles. In a way it was also reconciliation between the brothers, who got along fine when they were younger, until their sons became of age and they were starting to defend their own house.

I too find it an interesting question, the Burgundian Lands going to the Austrian Branch is an interesting WI. Still for this to happen made Philip the Handsome needs to live a bit longer to settle this.

 

[Admiral Matt]

A lot of good answers, and just the sort an ignorant like me needs to attempt to engage with the subject! Thanks all.

I'm going to process them properly and reply en route, but for the moment I'll just reiterate that where I'm going with this: The most interesting outcome for me would be all of the possessions north of the Alps going to one line, all of those south of the Alps going to the other. Failing that, and of course such a clear cut outcome may be virtually impossible, the goal is to place the Burgundian lands going to the Austrian side of the family.

[Total tangent, but trying to get grounded in this topic I came across Gattinara's absolutely wild suggestion to leverage the capture of Francis I at Pavia into a war of European unification (barely exaggerating). I hardly think Charles V is the man up to conquering France, but the even a failed effort would be fascinating. Perhaps an AHC is in order, to create a context where Gattinara's scheme could actually be attempted.]

 

[Admiral Matt]

Ferdinand with three sons of his own would have exactly ZERO reasons for giving Milan to Philip, but the latter would still get the Netherlands as OTL, unless Charles had willed them to Maria.

Wait, though. Could he have done that? Would he have done that? This is his daughter Maria, yes?

Not sure what happens after. I am no use at all on inheritance issues, really.

That would be interesting as well. Not that she or her heirs would necessarily do any better managing religious conflicts, but if it keeps Philip's focus elsewhere....

 

[isabella]

In Milan sons were also first in the line of succession, Ferdinand isn't getting that either unless Philip dies too. The only reason Ferdinand got Austria is because Charles explicitly gave it to him.
​

Milan was NEVER a personal possession of Charles V so was NOT part of Philip’s inheritance and while Charles, in his role as Emperor, had first promised/assigned it to Philip in 1540, the latter was publicly and formally invested with the Duchy only in 1554 meaning who if Charles dies BEFORE investing Philip with the Duchy of Milan the duchy would remain vacant and Ferdinand, as Holy Roman Emperor would be free to assign it to anyone he want (and that anyone would be one of his two younger sons)

That's because it's a matter of primogeniture everywhere (not counting the Imperial election) by default, with the ancestral Habsburg territories making a special case, right?

Austrian lands usually were splitted between sons but Charles V had renounced to his share, giving all of them to Ferdinand for making him a worth match for Anne of Bohemia and Hungary in 1521 (so that was long settled) and Ferdinand was elected as King of the Romans (and so next Holy Roman Emperor) in 1531 meaning who he would automatically become Emperor as soon Charles died

Wait, though. Could he have done that? Would he have done that? This is his daughter Maria, yes?

Not sure what happens after. I am no use at all on inheritance issues, really.

That would be interesting as well. Not that she or her heirs would necessarily do any better managing religious conflicts, but if it keeps Philip's focus elsewhere....

Before the death of Edward VI and Mary I’s succession to the English Crown, Charles V was pretty undecided between leaving his beloved Netherlands to his only son or to his eldest daughter. If Maria get the Netherlands they would remain hers until her death, unless she abdicated in favor of one of her sons. Maria getting the Burgundian inheritance would be a big game changer as would likely prevent the extinction of the main male line of the Austrian Habsburgs as she would likely name quickly her second son Ernest as her heir, enabling him to marry and generate children

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Seems like this circumstance could easily cost him the English marriage, which raises the question of who else it could be if not Queen Mary.

Mary in this case would likely either marry the widowed Ferdinand I or else simply not marry

 

[isabella]

This isn't at all among my areas of competence, and I have several other areas I'd prioritize to study, but feeling out what might happen in the lifetime of Philip is very tempting.

Seems like this circumstance could easily cost him the English marriage, which raises the question of who else it could be if not Queen Mary.

Our Sebastian of Portugal wouldn't necessarily even be born, never mind die without issue in a timely fashion. A Portuguese match would certainly be desirable if one came to be. What Philip would do with a united Iberia and half of Italy without the Dutch distraction is an interesting question... Support his uncle against Protestants and France, certainly. Otherwise extending his grip in Italy and fighting the Ottomans appear in character.

Joanna would still marry John Manuel, as Philip would know the value of the match and knew also who that was his father’s will. I believe also who here Philip would remarry much sooner than OTL to Maria of Viseu (or Christina of Denmark, if he had still to go in the Netherlands and meet her, as in OTL he was much fascinated by her, but he would need to persuade her to marry him).
Mary I, if she still become Queen of England, could try to offer marriage to Emperor Ferdinand but will be likely forced to content herself with Beja

 

[AsukaEMP]

Milan was NEVER a personal possession of Charles V so was NOT part of Philip’s inheritance and while Charles, in his role as Emperor, had first promised/assigned it to Philip in 1540, the latter was publicly and formally invested with the Duchy only in 1554

Okay, true, it wasn't technically his personal property and instead annexed to the empire in 1535. But Philip had already been secretly invested with the duchy in 1540 (and 1546), not merely promised it. It was done in secret to avoid another Italian War or disapproval from the German princes and was not made public until 1554 during Charles abdication tour. I doubt he invested his son with Milan twice without drafting any formal paperwork to actually back it up. The abdication was only a formality, a final confirmation of Charles' will.​

 

[ordinarylittleme]

he would need to persuade her to marry him

What is the advantage for either one here? She's older, widowed twice already by then I think, and he has younger cousins who could provide more children

 

[isabella]

What is the advantage for either one here? She's older, widowed twice already by then I think, and he has younger cousins who could provide more children

Christina has exactly the same age of his other prospective wife in this timeframe aka Maria of Viseu and Philip liked her a lot in OTL, after meeting her for the first time, at the point who Philip’s interest in Christina was noticed and she returned quickly in Lorraine

Okay, true, it wasn't technically his personal property and instead annexed to the empire in 1535. But Philip had already been secretly invested with the duchy in 1540 (and 1546), not merely promised it. It was done in secret to avoid another Italian War or disapproval from the German princes and was not made public until 1554 during Charles abdication tour. I doubt he invested his son with Milan twice without drafting any formal paperwork to actually back it up. The abdication was only a formality, a final confirmation of Charles' will.​

Still without formal recognition would be quite void, specially as Charles V had offered to invest someone else as Duke of Milan AFTER investing Philip . And remember who Ferdinand and Philip were in conflict and had not a friendly relationship, so I can not see Ferdinand confirming Philip’s possession of Milan, specially as he has three sons to which provide and he could give Milan to his second son and marry him to a daughter of Bona Sforza for giving him a link to the Sforza

 

[Iron_Lord]

I've been interested in alternate partitions of the unwieldly empire under Charles V for some time. Particularly, the pragmatic sanction assigning the Seventeen Provinces of the Netherlands to his son Philip shaped virtually all of European history over the next few centuries.

Rather than struggling to change the decision-making or personalities involved, it finally occurred to me that I could get what I was looking for if Charles V simply died sometime around 1548, just before beginning to settle his inheritance.

As I understand it, Philip would automatically inherit the Spanish kingdoms, which entailed the crowns of Sicily and Naples, and so also Sardinia. Clearly the Spanish empire goes along with this. All the possessions within the Holy Roman Empire, including Milan, would go to Charles' brother Ferdinand. My idea was that Ferdinand might later cede Milan to his nephew.

That leaves the Netherlands and Franche-Comte under the flexible and tolerant state-capacity-builder Ferdinand instead of the warrior-for-a-Catholic-Europe Philip, who essentially caused the Dutch revolt. It also displaces Philip's focus on European conflict towards France and particularly Italy.

It also has unpredictable implications for the OTL Hapsburg succession and inbreeding schemes, which were arranged under Charles. The house is still very likely to indulge in multiple dynastic marriages to maintain the two sides of the House, but it may be less extensive and would be different in detail to OTL.

Thoughts?

Fascinating… I was thinking about the same idea couple months ago!!

This is my grand strategic analysis on the issue.

Spoiler: Map stuff

So from what I understand Europe would look Similar to 1790’s Europe?

More like this

Less like this.

Hmm…
The Habsburg Empire had grand strategic problem on its hands. That being the Franco-Turkish alliance, and having to constantly fight on two fronts. Any war against the enemy required you to constantly keep your guard up against the other enemy taking advantage.
This was the primary reason why the Habsburgs weren’t able to conquer the Balkans during the Great Turkish War, because they were forced to intervene against France in the Nine-years war.

The ‘Ejecting’ of continental provinces of Netherlands, France and Milan would, in effect, rid Spainish habsburgs the constant hassle of over extended supply lines (Spanish road!) and protecting isolated territories against france.

This however, poses a serious problem. If these continental territories are handed over to the Austrian branch, the Austrian branch would find it constantly in a two front confrontations with not just the Ottomans but the French.
The Spanish, freed from the obligation of getting involved in costly European wars, would be able to focus on overseas expansion.

Conclusion:
- Horrible for the Austrians, constant two front conflict with not just the Turks but the French, and spain habsburgs has no obligations to aid austrian habsburgs.
- Amazing for the Spanish, ejection of costly, isolated territories. No longer needs to get embroiled in European conflicts over milan and netherlands. Able to focus elsewhere.

 

[Janprimus]

@Iron_Lord I too see the strategic concerns here. It’s a double edged sword for the Austrian Habsburgs. They can and will gain a lot from the Burgundian Lands and possibly Milan, but this would free up the richer partner within the Habsburg Empire, the Spanish branch, too much.
If the Austrian branch were to get the Burgundian Lands and thus everything north of the Alps, then IMHO it is vital that the Spanish Habsburgs keep the duchy of Milan, which will keep Italy as a Spanish concern and more vested in doing their share in keeping France in check.
Milan can only change after the Austrian Habsburgs manage to reconquer the entire kingdom of Hungary (and Croatia) effectively neutralising the Ottoman threat.

 

[Janprimus]

Fascinating… I was thinking about the same idea couple months ago!!

This is my grand strategic analysis on the issue.

Spoiler: Map stuff

So from what I understand Europe would look Similar to 1790’s Europe?
View attachment 831681
More like this

View attachment 831682
Less like this.

Hmm…
The Habsburg Empire had grand strategic problem on its hands. That being the Franco-Turkish alliance, and having to constantly fight on two fronts. Any war against the enemy required you to constantly keep your guard up against the other enemy taking advantage.
This was the primary reason why the Habsburgs weren’t able to conquer the Balkans during the Great Turkish War, because they were forced to intervene against France in the Nine-years war.

The ‘Ejecting’ of continental provinces of Netherlands, France and Milan would, in effect, rid Spainish habsburgs the constant hassle of over extended supply lines (Spanish road!) and protecting isolated territories against france.

This however, poses a serious problem. If these continental territories are handed over to the Austrian branch, the Austrian branch would find it constantly in a two front confrontations with not just the Ottomans but the French.
The Spanish, freed from the obligation of getting involved in costly European wars, would be able to focus on overseas expansion.

Conclusion:
- Horrible for the Austrians, constant two front conflict with not just the Turks but the French, and spain habsburgs has no obligations to aid austrian habsburgs.
- Amazing for the Spanish, ejection of costly, isolated territories. No longer needs to get embroiled in European conflicts over milan and netherlands. Able to focus elsewhere.

To elaborate on my previous post. The Burgundian Netherlands were still one of the more important sources of income for Charles V, mostly the mismanagement of the 'foreigner' Philip II of the native land of his father turned it into a drain. I agree this is partly off set by the fact that Burgundian Netherlands and Franche Comté or in constant threat by a France, which gets its' act together. OTOH this gain in income for the Austrian branch will be a boon in their struggle against the Ottomans, I don't see them take back occupied Hungary & Croatia right away, but it will make it possible more quickly than OTL.
Once the Austrian branch also is in control of the whole of Hungary and Croatia (which your map suggest), they also can be less dependent on their Spanish cousins. The duchy of Milan on paper would be a gain for the Austrian Habsburgs, except in the short run it was still recovering form all the conflicts, so not as prosperous how it was. It would also mean one front too many (see my point about Hungary & Croatia, to neutralize the Ottoman one). The duchy of Milan on paper has the strategic benefit to protect the southern flank of the Austrian Lands, but by 1548 they aren't in the shape to hold Milan as well. Keeping it in the friendly hands of their Spanish cousins is the next best thing.

For the Spanish branch, they already have a prominent presence in the Italian peninsula, adding or keeping Milan wouldn't be too much for the Spanish branch to keep. The Burgundian Lands are a mixed bag for them, the Burgundian Netherlands are easy accessible by sea, but Franche Comté is isolated, there the Austrian branch, with Further Austria has a more easy access there. Hence why IMHO keeping the duchy of Milan, which also satisfies the wish of Charles V, that his Spanish branch keeps a stake in the Empire, is a reasonable effort to ask from the Spanish Habsburgs.
It also makes for a clear division of regions of interest, the Austrian branch North of the Alps, and the Spanish branch South of the Alps. Also I don't think Philip II would want to let go of Milan, if his sister is willed the Burgundian Inheritance.

As for overseas expansion, with the Low Countries, I can see the Austrian Habsburgs enter that race too, especially after countries like England and France also join.

 

[Admiral Matt]

The Pragmatic Sanction of 1549 didn't assign the Netherlands to Philip. Under the male-preference primogeniture, which was already de facto practised in every Dutch province, Philip's inheritance was never up for debate. What it actually did was declare that the Netherlands were indivisible and would always be inherited as one entity, and in order to achieve this it streamline the inheritance laws for women. In most provinces daughters and other female heirs already had a long history of inheriting in absence of male descendants, but the effective application could differ (personal rule, co-rule, ruling in name of a son, or letting their husband rule) and some were in a legal grey zone. The pragmatic sanction cleared this up so that in the future random male relatives would not be able to lay claim to e.g. Guelders if a daughter or sister were to inherit. Furthermore it prevented any rulers from carving the region up again by giving away individual territories to brothers or younger sons.

In Milan sons were also first in the line of succession, Ferdinand isn't getting that either unless Philip dies too. The only reason Ferdinand got Austria is because Charles explicitly gave it to him.

But there is actually a way to get Milan and the Netherlands under Austrian rule... If Philip II dies without any children of his own all his lands would pass to his oldest sister: Maria of Austria, the wife of Ferdinand's oldest son Maximilian II. Maria and Maximilian now rule over Charles' unwieldy empire once more, and how they partition it is up to them to decide. If they want the Netherlands then great, they can keep it. But it's important to remember that at the end of the day Austria is going to lose the Netherlands again the second one of its rulers has only daughters.​

Thanks for the grounding. I needed it.

Very good tip about Philip's death, though frankly knowing so little about the period, I'd rather keep him alive and guess about long term implications. Killing him off means a lot of what little I know about the period and personalities goes out the window. Keeping him alive means a recognizable personality I at least recognize a bit can be acting on the scene to 1600 or so.

Relatedly, I'd rather Milan be in Philip's hands than Ferdinands, because it gives me a clearer sense of what he might focus on in his reign: Italian conflicts, overseas empire, and struggling against the Ottomans all over the Mediterranean. And because Austria versus France over northern Italy... been there, done that.

Yes, though inheritance treaties and wills were sometimes made. The Austrian Hereditary Lands were like many German Lands held in joint-rule. In the period before the marriage of Ferdinand of Austria with Anna of Bohemia & Hungary negotiated over the inheritance by Primogeniture Charles V was entitled to the Castille, Aragon and the Burgundian Lands.
Only in the Austrian Hereditary Lands both Charles V and Ferdinand had their share, IIRC Charles V was entitled to at least Tyrol and Further Austria, Ferdinand to Austria proper and Inner Austria (Styria, Carinthia, Carniola, the Windic March, Gorizia (Görz) and the county of Mitterburg (inner Istria). In the marriage negotiations with the Jagiellons the Habsburg Archduke, who would marry Anna of Bohemia & Hungary, would also have substantial lands.
Ferdinand aimed for more, probably the Austrian & Burgundian Lands and thus the Empire, Charles eventually also gave Ferdinand his Austrian share, also due to the fact that the Austrian Estates didn't like such a division.

By 1548 this is long settled, but Charles V did change is mind a lot, whether he would will the Burgundian Lands to his only daughter Mary, who would marry the eldest son of Ferdinand, Maximilian II. That could be possible, it will mean Mary and Maximilian will have their court in Brussels. This in turn will eventually boost the main Austrian branch, since like Bohemia, Hungary (with Croatia) and Austria proper, the Burgundian Lands will stay with the eldest male (and in absence of men female) of their line.

Milan was NEVER a personal possession of Charles V so was NOT part of Philip’s inheritance and while Charles, in his role as Emperor, had first promised/assigned it to Philip in 1540, the latter was publicly and formally invested with the Duchy only in 1554 meaning who if Charles dies BEFORE investing Philip with the Duchy of Milan the duchy would remain vacant and Ferdinand, as Holy Roman Emperor would be free to assign it to anyone he want (and that anyone would be one of his two younger sons)

Austrian lands usually were splitted between sons but Charles V had renounced to his share, giving all of them to Ferdinand for making him a worth match for Anne of Bohemia and Hungary in 1521 (so that was long settled) and Ferdinand was elected as King of the Romans (and so next Holy Roman Emperor) in 1531 meaning who he would automatically become Emperor as soon Charles died

Before the death of Edward VI and Mary I’s succession to the English Crown, Charles V was pretty undecided between leaving his beloved Netherlands to his only son or to his eldest daughter. If Maria get the Netherlands they would remain hers until her death, unless she abdicated in favor of one of her sons. Maria getting the Burgundian inheritance would be a big game changer as would likely prevent the extinction of the main male line of the Austrian Habsburgs as she would likely name quickly her second son Ernest as her heir, enabling him to marry and generate children

Yeah, I didn't even realize how much I didn't know about these issues. The year 1548 really doesn't mean much to me, and we can drop it from discussion as far as I'm concerned.

If he could have plausibly left the Netherlands to Maria and her cousin, then that's definitely the POD I would be most interested in. For the sake of simplicity I will be looking at the partition happening by abdications in the same time period Charles V was giving away his crown historically. It's just he's giving it away to three relatives, instead of two, here.

Have there been timelines or threads discussing what might happen if Charles did proceed with this sort of 3-way split? I'd like to read up for background, but I feel like I keep using the wrong search terms.