WI: Black Death in China and India?

So, this popped up in my feed...


...and I wonder, what would've happened, had the Black Death hit China and India as hard as Europe and the Middle East? I don't know enough about East and South Asia at the time to take even a guess but, as the video states, when the plague will come back in China and India, it will be far less lethal than it was historically, due to the populace having built some degree of immunity to it.
 

prani

Banned
and I wonder, what would've happened, had the Black Death hit China and India as hard as Europe and the Middle East? I don't know enough about East and South Asia at the time to take even a guess but, as the video states, when the plague will come back in China and India, it will be far less lethal than it was historically, due to the populace having built some degree of immunity to it
South Asia has had a series of waves of plagues right from the middle bronze age and a significant percentage of the population in the north (I think around 25 percent) have genes that actually gives resistance but not immunity to the Y Pestis another factor that plays a significant role is the role of Cats in Hinduism as well as Islam, in Hindusim cats are treated negatively but given the practical use of the cat and the taboo against killing animals, you'll not have the stupidity that we saw in Europe and it was not unusual to a farmer to have Cat in his household and this kept the rodent population in check and Muslims have a favorable views on the cat unlike Hindus who weren't fans of the feline creature. But if the Plague hit the southern part of the country, it would be devasting since the people who have those genes are usually in the north so we if the plague does hit South Asia it might wipe off a lot of people all around except certain communities in the north .
 
This is most likely otl in China.Massive plagues were recorded in the period prior to the end of the Yuan Dynasty.
 
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Basils

Banned
Did Europeans really kill/drive away cats, or is that made up during the enlightenment? When they made up tons of stuff about the Middle Ages to make themselves feel sophisticated
 

prani

Banned
Did Europeans really kill/drive away cats, or is that made up during the enlightenment? When they made up tons of stuff about the Middle Ages to make themselves feel sophisticated
It did happen, in London during the 17th century where there was a plague outbreak and there are records of similar events in other places, but did the pope Gregory? issue a papal bull and ordered the catholic faithful to kill cats, that's made up
For me the real question is , do cats help in controlling the bubonic plague since it can be transmitted from person to person.
You could say personal hygiene and public hygeine plays more important role that these feline furballs killing rodents
 
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Didn't the Black Death originate in China and gradually spread westward until it hit a previously unexposed population in Europe with devastating effects?

If it had hit as hard in the Far East it probably would not have been able to spread as far west as it did.
 
It did happen, in London during the 17th century where there was a plague outbreak and there are records of similar events in other places, but did the pope Gregory? issue a papal bull and ordered the catholic faithful to kill cats, that's made up
For me the real question is , do cats help in controlling the bubonic plague since it can be transmitted from person to person.
You could say personal hygiene and public hygeine plays more important role that these feline furballs killing rodents

17th century events may as well have occurred in China as occurred in 14th century England. Cultural drift and norms had changed much in Europe at the time and actions done in England in 1600 would not translate to 1300.

The reason for the intensity of the Bubonic Plague epidemic of the 14th century Europe has more to do with the famine that emerged in the early section of the century and the socioeconomic or climatic situation that was assailing Europe at the time. South Asia had a completely different set of circumstances in comparison to the Islamic world or China and obviously Europe. For one thing, while the Delhi Sultanate was in a declining situation during the 14th century, economically there was little to no stress in South Asia and in some cases, South Asia was experiencing a renaissance in growth due to importation of an even greater number of Persianate scholars, merchants and general talent which began to migrate to South Asia to grant their expertise due to the fallout of the Ilkhanate in Iran.
 

prani

Banned
South Asia had a completely different set of circumstances in comparison to the Islamic world or China and obviously Europe. For one thing, while the Delhi Sultanate was in a declining situation during the 14th century, economically there was little to no stress in South Asia and in some cases, South Asia was experiencing a renaissance in growth due to importation of an even greater number of Persianate scholars, merchants and general talent which began to migrate to South Asia to grant their expertise due to the fallout of the Ilkhanate in Iran.
I don't really agree with this part, south Asia began to ruralize from the 8th century and continue to do so steadily till the establishment of the first turkic dynasty in India after which expansion of rural network actually increased very rapidly and was undone only during the reign of Akbar, Shah Jahan, jahangir and aurangzeb when south Asia began to urbanize rapidly on the back of relative stability in the north brought about by the Mughal Empire and in the south by vijayanagar and the bahamani sultans and expanded trade network with Europe, Africa, middle East and China.

The migration of nobility from central Asia made things worse, be it may following the collapse of khwarazmian empire or the illkhanate, cause you had a large number of educated elite trying to sustain themselves off a very small economic base and which was even reducing, these elite weren't like the migrants who went to the Americas, these were nobles who after entering south Asia engaged in conflicts with each other and the native population, the Khilji's were in the service of the khwarazmian Shah, the tughlak too were off central Asian stock. I see the migration of these nobles who had very little knowledge of agriculture in south Asia or its industry or its governance as being of use , infact they were cause of general anarchy of the Era, ofcourse you'll find exception to the rule, prominent being Mughals, but you know those exception just prove the rule that these noble migrants were generally a rent seeking elites who contributed to the political instability if they didn't have things their way

The Pashto-Turkic sultanates were terrible administratively when compared to their hindu Buddhist predecessor or muslim successor Mughals or their Sunni brethren the bahamani who actually introduced perso Islamic culture to the wider population. Most of the public buildings constructed under the muslim dynasties here was under the Mughals or under the bahamani sultanate, the turkic sultanate just established a series of forts which was later taken over by the Mughals, the only monument worth remembering under these turkic sultanate was qutub minar and a handful of others, you just don't see the level of achievement of say their near peers the bahamani who too were terrible administratively but used the taxes to establish public buildings instead of just fort complexes and who actually imported Persian bureaucrats and experts and who did raise the standard of living marginally of ordinary people, for example you see a lot of qanats in the Deccan that supported large urban population in the north you see nothing of the sort, forget qanats which wasn't suited for the geology of the north, but they didn't maintain the irrigation canals or established new ones or maintain roads or caravansaries.

The turkic sultanates were basically what Germans would say is raiding/plundering economy of the Nazi German Reich , they imposed huge taxes on the people which made cultivation unsustainable and those taxes were collected irregularly and it wasn't unusual for the sultans to force people back to cultivation and one or two bad harvests you had famines, and to sustain the bloated and inefficient state bureaucracy they raided neighbouring kingdoms which made them poor too. What you see is a 300 years of economic mismanagement which caused a massive famines, mass ruralization, economic collapse in the north because of ill advised economic policy so much so even by the time of alaudin khilji you needed a total war economy too hold the state together which after him fell apart, you don't find a adminstration of his calibre in Delhi after him, what you had was a 200 years of war lord period, central control was weak and Mohammad bin tughlak threw into the fire what little legitimacy the state had, infact the bahamanis had enough of mal administration that the Persian nobles started to establish a independent sultanate down south.

So if the bubonic plague hits south Asia it would kill slightly less number of people because the rural hinterland has expanded so much that there's no concentration of people like in Europe or the middle East.
 
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but not immunity to the Y Pestis another factor that plays a significant role is the role of Cats in Hinduism as well as Islam, in Hindusim cats are treated negatively but given the practical use of the cat and the taboo against killing animals, you'll not have the stupidity that we saw in Europe and it was not unusual to a farmer to have Cat in his household
Well that’s a load of nonsense. Europeans didn’t kill cats. That’s just a pack of lies. And cats DON’T prevent the spread of plague. Because it spreads through fleas. Which ya know, cats can carry even easier than rats. And cats are susceptible to the plague.

Did Europeans really kill/drive away cats, or is that made up during the enlightenment? When they made up tons of stuff about the Middle Ages to make themselves feel sophisticated
No. See above.
 

prani

Banned
Well that’s a load of nonsense. Europeans didn’t kill cats. That’s just a pack of lies. And cats DON’T prevent the spread of plague. Because it spreads through fleas. Which ya know, cats can carry even easier than rats. And cats are susceptible to the plague
You'd also know there are different varieties of flea? Yeah? The bubonic plague that hit Europe in 2600 bce during the indo European expansion was fleas carried by horse, the bubonic plague of the 14th century was fleas usually found in rodents and one during the 6th century, we still aren't sure which animal was the carrier.
As for the role of the cats if you bothered to read my other comments instead of just attacking you'd know i have my doubts too. I did say hygiene might have played a role too
 

Basils

Banned
It did happen, in London during the 17th century where there was a plague outbreak and there are records of similar events in other places, but did the pope Gregory? issue a papal bull and ordered the catholic faithful to kill cats, that's made up
For me the real question is , do cats help in controlling the bubonic plague since it can be transmitted from person to person.
You could say personal hygiene and public hygeine plays more important role that these feline furballs killing rodents
Interesting point. As also if they were spread by fleas, cats and dogs would add to that
Yeah the pope decreeing that is old school anti Catholic nonsense
 

prani

Banned
Interesting point. As also if they were spread by fleas, cats and dogs would add to that
Yeah the pope decreeing that is old school anti Catholic nonsense
Afaik fleas vary some infect rodents not horse or bovine, fleas is a wide concept it's not a monolithic species so the argument but cats also have it, we humans have it too. The fleas are usually the carrier of bubonic plague but what variety is a question that has to be inspected
 

Basils

Banned
Afaik fleas vary some infect rodents not horse or bovine, fleas is a wide concept it's not a monolithic species so the argument but cats also have it, we humans have it too. The fleas are usually the carrier of bubonic plague but what variety is a question that has to be inspected
Very true. Different species may or may not have carried it. Or maybe carried the blood transmission type only.
 

prani

Banned
Very true. Different species may or may not have carried it. Or maybe carried the blood transmission type only.
Mechanism of transmission is still being debated, all we know certain species that infect particular animal spread a particular strain of y pestis, how? Is it being debated amongst the epidemiologists,
 

Basils

Banned
Mechanism of transmission is still being debated, all we know certain species that infect particular animal spread a particular strain of y pestis, how? Is it being debated amongst the epidemiologists,
I I haven’t read up on it in years. But there was still debate about flea vs airborne transmission. Really hard to make a case for either since we can only speculate
 
Does anybody realize that between 1331-34, thirteen million people died of plague in China?


Three waves of epidemics occurred in the last years of the Yuan dynasty: 1331-34 spreading from Hebei to Hunan, in 1344–46 in coastal Fujian and Shandong, and in the 1350s throughout northern and central China. The epidemic of 1331-34 recorded a death toll of 13 million people by 1333. The epidemic of 1344-46 was called a "great pestilence."[19] On the heels of the European epidemic, a widespread disaster occurred in China during 1353–1354. Chinese accounts of this wave of the disease record a spread to eight distinct areas: Hubei, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, and Suiyuan.[a] More than two thirds of the population in part of Shanxi died and six or seven out of ten in Hubei died. Epidemics afflicted various provinces from 1356 to 1360. In 1358, over 200,000 in Shanxi and Hubei died.[20] In Hebei and Shandong, the population fell from 3.3 million in 1207 to 1.1 million in 1393, however the population in the southern Yangzi region continued to grow from 1210 to the mid-1350s and only fell by less than 10 percent by 1381


 
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