Why the Chinese play cricket (an Imperial Federation timeline)

That's probably what really hurt him especially given the very protectionist stance the USA took against imperial interests. I think though the Fishing dispute could have brought down his goverment in time.
The writing was actually on the wall with the defeat of Laurier's ally Robert Bond in Newfoundland in February. It should have been clear the tide had turned against free trade with the US then. But Laurier ignored it and paid the price.

February 1907: Since his election in 1900 Newfoundland Premier Robert Bond, in conjunction with Canadian Premier Wilfred Laurier, has continued his fruitless efforts to obtain a free trade treaty with the US. With clashes between US and Newfoundland fishermen becoming more frequent, his rival Edward Morris splits from the governing Liberal Party, forming the Peoples Party, taking ten other MPs with him and forcing a successful vote of no confidence. The Peoples party wins the resulting election, taking 20 seats as against the Liberals 16. Morris abandons Bond’s pro US policy in favour of a pro Imperial position.
 
The writing was actually on the wall with the defeat of Laurier's ally Robert Bond in Newfoundland in February. It should have been clear the tide had turned against free trade with the US then. But Laurier ignored it and paid the price.

February 1907: Since his election in 1900 Newfoundland Premier Robert Bond, in conjunction with Canadian Premier Wilfred Laurier, has continued his fruitless efforts to obtain a free trade treaty with the US. With clashes between US and Newfoundland fishermen becoming more frequent, his rival Edward Morris splits from the governing Liberal Party, forming the Peoples Party, taking ten other MPs with him and forcing a successful vote of no confidence. The Peoples party wins the resulting election, taking 20 seats as against the Liberals 16. Morris abandons Bond’s pro US policy in favour of a pro Imperial position.
Ouch you know if future US Presidents and their Cabinets go looking for Allies North of the Border ITTL I feel like they will struggle big time to locate any in govt that aren't pro-Imperial given the way they stone walled on previous trade talks.
 
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Ouch you know if future US Presidents and their Cabinets go looking for Allies North of the Border ITTL I feel like they will struggle big time to locate any in govt that aren't pro-Imperial given the way they stone walled on previous trade talks.
LOL watch this space, its only going to get worse.

In the OTL, in the period after 1812 or so, there are two very strong trends in the development of Canadian identity. First is the slow growth of their own sense as an independent nation, separate from Britain. The second was the gradual drift into the US orbit. Both these trends were very well established by 1870 when TTL begins, making Canada the hardest Dominion to bring into an Imperial Federation. Unfortunately, you have to bring Canada in to make it work, because if Canada goes, the other Dominions will naturally follow their example.

ITTL a number of things have been working to reverse those two trends. Most obvious is that unlike the OTTL, the British government has been unwilling to continually throw Canada under the bus to cozy up with the US. ITTL the British have continually back Canada in its disputes with the US, removing probably the biggest driver of anti Imperial sentiment in the Canada in the OTL. Then you have the gradual but ever increasing diversion of British investment away from the US toward the Dominions and Empire. This has retarded US economic growth in relation to the OOTL, feeding into the very strong US tendency toward heavy protectionism of the period. The flip side of this shift in British investment priorities is its also increased Canada economic growth and sped up its industrialisation. This has made Canada a far more effective competitor in the US market, further fueling the US love of protectionism.

But wait, there's more. You have the change in the focus of British trade from Europe and the US in favour of Asia, the Pacific and Latin America, coupled with the rise of American Imperialism which has followed a far less mercantile path ITTL, This has meant rather than the US and Britain coming to see themselves as natural allies as the did in the OTL, there's been an extremely slow but ever increasing perception on both sides that they're natural enemies (this is VERY gradual, at this point ITTL, they still think natural allies, but it is definitely changing). On top of this you have the rapprochement between the US and Japan occurring ITTL. While the direct rivalry between the US and Empire is fairly deeply buried, the rivalry between Japan and the Empire is not. Due to TTL's US-Japanese alliance, when the inevitable clash between Japan and the Empire occurs, the US will be pulled into it on the Japanese side.

Moving on you have the rise rise of protectionism in Britain, reducing its importance as a market for the US (again gradual). Add to this this the development of the Imperial Common Market. This has both further reduced US access to Britain and Dominions as a market with goods from the Dominions replacing US goods, as well as increased the attractiveness of the Empire as a market for Canada. And finally you have dear US President Blaine, unique to this TL. His paranoia over British intensions in South America did a wonderful job of taking the hidden minor but ever present strand of Anglophobia in US society, pumping it up to new heights and bringing it out into the open.

All those factors combined have been working quietly and slow to reverse those two OTL trends in the development of Canadian identity, pushing them away from the US and toward the Empire. So in the forty years between 1870 and 1910, the OTL situation has been largely flipped on its head ITTL with Canada ready and waiting to sign on the dotted line to join the Imperial Federation.
 
Oct-Dec 1907: Paying the piper
~Oct-Dec 1907: Paying the piper

October 1907: While Emperor Napoleon IV has proven wildly popular with the general public, his outspoken liberal views and criticism of the French establishment have made many enemies, particularly in the military, With his intervention in the Isan Crisis, they are finally able to act against him. To end his influence over military policy, he is replaced as chair of the Conseil de la Défense Nationale by the Prime Minister. In an attempt to conceal the true intention of the move, the Imperial Guard is made an independent branch of the military under the Emperor's direct control, with it claimed he can not adequately fulfil both roles. Committed to his position as a constitutional monarch, the Napoleon IV quietly accepts the change, instead concentrating on reshaping the Imperial Guard along British lines.

October 1907: With Russia's only access to the sea in Europe being via the Baltic and Black Seas, both of which could easily be blocked, Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky negotiates an agreement with newly independent Norway to construct a railway from Oulu in the Duchy of Finland to the Norwegian port of Narvik. The new line is expected to cost of 125 million roubles {£11,849,573} and be completed by 1915, with another 50 million roubles {£4,739,829} required to upgrade the Helsingfors to Oulu line. The option of connecting to the existing line from Luleå in Sweden to Narvik, though far cheaper, is rejected due to Sweden's hostility toward Russia and pro German sympathies.

October 1907: Despite the fall of the Laurier government in Canada, the constitutional crisis it triggered has produced widespread feeling throughout the Empire such obstructionism should never be allowed to happen again, with many calling for an emergency Imperial Conference. After lengthy discussions the Imperial Council rejects this option. Instead a panel of experts in constitutional law will produce a report for consideration at the next Imperial Conference. With this still two years away and growing fears of a Great Power war, this is only accepted after a compromise suggested by Dominion Secretary Joseph Ward. He argues the Toronto and Durban Doctrines of 1888 and 1890 represent a commitment to collective security, and as such in the event of a European war no decisions should be taken without consulting the Dominion governments. This will become become part of the unwritten Imperial constitution as the Ward Protocol.

October 1907: Despite having dismissed the first two Russian Dumas as too radical, Tsar Nicholas is unwilling to entirely do away with the institution. Instead he and Prime Minister Pyotr Stolypin use emergency powers to rewrite the electoral laws, despite it being a flagrant violation of thee Fundamental Laws he approved in 1906. The new law gives far greater weight to landowners and the urban elite and with this change the Tsar authorises new elections.

October 1907: With the US in an economic depression, the US Copper Company launches an attempt to corner the market on copper, triggering crisis in confidence. A complete collapse is only avert when banker John Morgan pledges large sums of his own money to support the market. The Banking Crisis of 1907 will have a profound impact on the US financial industry.

October 1907: British radio pioneer Guglielmo Marconi begins the first commercial transatlantic wireless service. With two high power longwave stations, one in Ireland and the other Nova Scotia, Marconi is able to offer reliable wireless telegraphy between Britain and Canada. This will be the first link in a series of stations which will eventually come to rival the All Red Line of submarine telegraph cables.

October 1907: The British army purchase their first aircraft, a semi-rigid airship; designed by aviation pioneer William Cody. Christened British Army Dirigible No. 1, the airship will prove unsuccussful, being damaged by high winds several time before being scraped in 1908.

November 1907: As expected, despite a small number of Liberals crossing the floor, the Government of India Bill is passed comfortably by the commons, and despite lengthy and heated debate in the Lords, Dilke's private agreement with Balfour ensured it became law before the end of the year. Though deeply disappointed by the removal of the five year review, the act is well received by the moderate nationalists of the INC as the first step toward Indian self government. On the other hand, the act is bitterly opposed by many Indian Princes as the an attempt to undermine their autonomy. However the fiercest opposition comes from the radical nationalist INA, regarding it as an attempt to limit Indian self determination to the provincial level, thus denying real independence. This will result in the INA launching a campaign of civil unrest and violence in an effort to make India ungovernable.

November 1907: After strained negotiations between the British and French, a compromise is eventually reached to resolve the Isan Crisis. Under the Oslo Agreement, the French will incorporate several Siamese border regions into Cambodia, but the Sakhon Nakhon basin will remain part of Siam. While this does resolve the crisis, it has caused lasting damage to Anglo-French relations and ended any prospect of the British joining the Franco-Russian Entente.

November 1907: The October Russian Duma elections have produced a body dominated by conservatives reformers and thus far more amenable to the Tsarist government. When the new Duma convenes in St Petersburg, Prime Minister Stolypin embarks on his program of land reform aimed at creating a land owning peasantry as well introducing a series of limited social welfare measures. Stolypin believes this will be sufficient to undermine the radical left and defuse the discontent which led to the 1905 Revolution.

November 1907: With their agreement to cooperate on security matters now being two years old, the Danes and Norwegians have been holding regular biannual meetings between senior political, civil service and military officials, alternating between Copenhagen and Oslo since October 1906. However the scheduled October meeting was postponed due to the recent Anglo-French Summit in Oslo. The Isan Crisis has made it clear the likelihood of a European war is increasing markedly and it is impossible to predict who will be allying with whom. The heads of the two navies express great concern that in the event of a such a war both Danish and Norwegian water will be mined by one or other side regardless of their status as neutrals. Norwegian Admiral Christen Sparre expresses particular concern due to due to the length and rugged nature of Norway's coastline. To address this threat, a class of minesweepers will be ordered. based on commercial whale catchers and fitted as icebreakers, the Fælles/Felles 750 ton/tonn or F750T class are designed for the extreme weather encountered in northern waters, with the vessels serving as patrol ships during peacetime. As per the established agreement on procurement, the ships will be built in Danish yards, with the proposed armament of two single 3” guns and other equipment to be manufactured in Norway. The Norwegians order for four such vessels, while the Danes only feel the need to procure two. Additionally naval base at Bergen will be established to support paroling the Atlantic coastline.

December 1907: As promised by the Treaty of Vereeniging, the two former Boer Republics are granted responsible government, transforming them into full Dominions. Both Boer Dominions set about putting in place racists policies to exclude non-whites from power and restrict their rights.

December 1907: With the government of Gabriel Hantaux having adopted an expansionist policy, the French Navy order two improved Edgar Quinet class armoured cruisers in attempt to increase the strength of the modern cruiser force. Displacing 15,000 tons and armed with twelve 9.4” guns laid out in the same pattern as the Edgar Quinet class, the Turenne class will feature the same advanced propulsion as the Danton class dreadnoughts, giving a speed of 26 knots. However as with the Danton's, this machinery will prove unreliable in service, with heavy fuel consumption limiting their range. Additionally, despite Hantaux's government's strongly nationalist position, four modern scout cruisers are ordered from US yards due to a lack of domestic capacity. The Coëtlogon class will be a version of the US Navy's Amsterdam class scout cruisers with French weapons.

December 1907: The War of the Pacific inflicted massive damage on the Peruvian economy which has taken over twenty to recover from, preventing any major development programs and leaving the Peruvian military falling further and further behind its major rivals, Chile, Colombia and Ecuador. In a major development program is begun on a coastal railway linking Lima with Arequipo and then across the Andes to Cuzco. Additionally, in the first major increase to the Peruvian navy since the War of the Pacific, two scout cruisers are ordered from US yards.

December 1907: Trials of the improved Rexel version of the Danish Madsen light machine gun show the previous feed issues have finally been eliminated. With these issues resolved, the British army orders 200 examples for full scale troop trials throughout the Empire.
 
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October 1907: While Emperor Napoleon IV has proven wildly popular with the general public, his outspoken liberal views and criticism of the French establishment have made many enemies, particularly in the military, With his intervention in the Isan Crisis, they are finally able to act against him. To end his influence over military policy, he is replaced as chair of the Conseil de la Défense Nationale by the Prime Minister. In an attempt to conceal the true intention of the move, the Imperial Guard is made an independent branch of the military under the Emperor's direct control, with it claimed he can not adequately fulfil both roles. Committed to his position as a constitutional monarch, the Napoleon IV quietly accepts the change, instead concentrating on reshaping the Imperial Guard along British lines.
Why do I feel like the Imperial Guard will be one of the few formation in the French military when war kicks off will have one of the lowest causality and be one of the more effective formations while the rest of the French military gets beaten to hell and back.
 
Really hoping Napoleóns life, family and throne are safe.

And still worrying For nicky
L'Emperuer is far far too popular for anything like that, so he and his family are well protected by the Paris mob. Trying to stop him meddling in French politics however, that is fair game lol

And so far I've had two opportunities to write Nicky's assassination in. With one all I needed to do was have the assassin not get delayed on her way to the train station. I've decided against it both times. His arrogance and pig headedness will sadly run its course. However, his best chance for survival has just cropped up in this chapter.
 
Why do I feel like the Imperial Guard will be one of the few formation in the French military when war kicks off will have one of the lowest causality and be one of the more effective formations while the rest of the French military gets beaten to hell and back.
Well yes, but it won't be alone, despite his current setback L'Emperuer is not without friends and influence. You can be sure he will be working to get his hands on a few other units to play with.
 
L'Emperuer is far far too popular for anything like that, so he and his family are well protected by the Paris mob. Trying to stop him meddling in French politics however, that is fair game lol

And so far I've had two opportunities to write Nicky's assassination in. With one all I needed to do was have the assassin not get delayed on her way to the train station. I've decided against it both times. His arrogance and pig headedness will sadly run its course. However, his best chance for survival has just cropped up in this chapter.
Great to hear For nappy.

And please have Nicky take that chance
 
I mean, the French Military did just create a Military-Republican/Imperial Guard split system, and it did it to itself.

Frankly, the mind boggles.
It's the French military at this point tended to do stuff like that which with the bengit of hindsight made no bloody sense.

Like the belief in Èlan.
 
Great to hear For nappy.

And please have Nicky take that chance
He won't and it's not really a chance for him other than to change his ultimate fate from a bullet in the back of the head to a comfortable exile in some quiet corner of the world. The Russian Empire is in desperate need of massive fundamental reform and will not make them or even try without a gun at his head, and even as soon as the gun is taken away he'll reverse everything he was forced to change. So he is doomed and will fall. The only question is, what and who does he take down with him. The chance which has come up is simply a chance to soften his fall.
 
He won't and it's not really a chance for him other than to change his ultimate fate from a bullet in the back of the head to a comfortable exile in some quiet corner of the world. The Russian Empire is in desperate need of massive fundamental reform and will not make them or even try without a gun at his head, and even as soon as the gun is taken away he'll reverse everything he was forced to change. So he is doomed and will fall. The only question is, what and who does he take down with him. The chance which has come up is simply a chance to soften his fall.
I hope the empire itself can survive, the romanovs deserve to still prove themselves
 
Well yes, but it won't be alone, despite his current setback L'Emperuer is not without friends and influence. You can be sure he will be working to get his hands on a few other units to play with.
Ironically for the administration this will most likely make Napoleon more popular than ever during wartime and serving to discredit the nationalists.
 
He won't and it's not really a chance for him other than to change his ultimate fate from a bullet in the back of the head to a comfortable exile in some quiet corner of the world. The Russian Empire is in desperate need of massive fundamental reform and will not make them or even try without a gun at his head, and even as soon as the gun is taken away he'll reverse everything he was forced to change. So he is doomed and will fall. The only question is, what and who does he take down with him. The chance which has come up is simply a chance to soften his fall.
Also I think the best case scenario here is stolypin going through with his reforms to appease the more radical elements and eventually Nicky gets the chance to abdicate in favor of a family member who will get the memo and take national reform seriously if they wish to maintain any kind of power.
 
I mean, the French Military did just create a Military-Republican/Imperial Guard split system, and it did it to itself.

Frankly, the mind boggles.
Errrr they already had the split. You had the 800,000 strong conscript French Army, controlled, funded, equipped, trained and raised by the Ministry of War. And then you had the 116,000 strong professional volunteer Troupes Colonialis (45,000 of whom were recruited from Metropolitan France, the others from the colonies with the exception of North Africa). These were controlled, funded etc by the Ministry of Colonies. Two totally independent military forces. What's actually happened is they've now added a third totally independent military force, the 48,000 strong professional volunteer Garde Impériale.
It's the French military at this point tended to do stuff like that which with the bengit of hindsight made no bloody sense.

Like the belief in Èlan.
Lol the whole situation came about as an attempt to prevent someone trying to stop them doing that.
 
Ironically for the administration this will most likely make Napoleon more popular than ever during wartime and serving to discredit the nationalists.
Ohhh France IITL is such a complicated beast, I could and probably should do an entire Miss C's Design Notes on it. I remember three quotes which stick with me about French politics even in the OTL. First "France is ruled by the Paris Mob." Second "Republicanism is the form of government the French hate the least." And finally from a French friend of mine when told there was a passionate political demonstration occurring where I live in NZ "But nobody's set anything on fire?"

Yes you are correct, when the Great War comes and tens of thousands of French solders are scarified on the alter of Èlan and Attaque à Outrance in the first few weeks, yes it will become blatantly obvious everything Louis Napoleon was saying was right and the changes he wanted to make were necessary, and his popularity will soar while that of the conservatives and boulangists plunge. But then the war will turn into the industrial slaughterhouse of the Great War with millions dying for a handful of meters of ground, leaving people traumatised, wondering what went wrong and looking for scapegoats (pretty much as per the OTL), driving people to the extreme ends of the political spectrum.

But what's so interesting (and if I step outside my dispassionate authorial detachment, frightening) about France ITTL is boulangism. Boulangism is an early expression of a truly fascinating and equally frightening political philosophy, one which defies the normal left/right conservative/radical political definitions we use. Boulangism is in reality fascism. Fascism takes the extreme national chauvinism, anti intellectualism, reverence for 'traditional values,' rejection of democracy, authoritarianism etc you normally find with the far right, and combines it with the revolutionary rejection of the established social order, remove the privileged ruling elites and replace them with the 'common man/woman' you find in far left. It combines elements of reactionary conservatism with revolutionary socialism, National Socialism is a surprisingly accurate term for it.

In the OTL, despite brief early flashes such as boulangism, fascism was basically born out of the trauma of the Great War. People were left blaming the established ruling elites for the horrors they'd endured, while at the same time seeking the comfort of the certainty given by tradition and established social norms. And even then it took a second massive social trauma. the Great Depression to move it to the mainstream. But ITTL, fascism under its boulangist name has taken hold and moved into the mainstream in France. Yes it's still very much a minority movement, unable to do more than influence those in power having no possibility of gaining power in its own right. But what will happen when the trauma of the Great War hits is anybody's guess.
 
Ohhh France IITL is such a complicated beast, I could and probably should do an entire Miss C's Design Notes on it. I remember three quotes which stick with me about French politics even in the OTL. First "France is ruled by the Paris Mob." Second "Republicanism is the form of government the French hate the least." And finally from a French friend of mine when told there was a passionate political demonstration occurring where I live in NZ "But nobody's set anything on fire?"

Yes you are correct, when the Great War comes and tens of thousands of French solders are scarified on the alter of Èlan and Attaque à Outrance in the first few weeks, yes it will become blatantly obvious everything Louis Napoleon was saying was right and the changes he wanted to make were necessary, and his popularity will soar while that of the conservatives and boulangists plunge. But then the war will turn into the industrial slaughterhouse of the Great War with millions dying for a handful of meters of ground, leaving people traumatised, wondering what went wrong and looking for scapegoats (pretty much as per the OTL), driving people to the extreme ends of the political spectrum.

But what's so interesting (and if I step outside my dispassionate authorial detachment, frightening) about France ITTL is boulangism. Boulangism is an early expression of a truly fascinating and equally frightening political philosophy, one which defies the normal left/right conservative/radical political definitions we use. Boulangism is in reality fascism. Fascism takes the extreme national chauvinism, anti intellectualism, reverence for 'traditional values,' rejection of democracy, authoritarianism etc you normally find with the far right, and combines it with the revolutionary rejection of the established social order, remove the privileged ruling elites and replace them with the 'common man/woman' you find in far left. It combines elements of reactionary conservatism with revolutionary socialism, National Socialism is a surprisingly accurate term for it.

In the OTL, despite brief early flashes such as boulangism, fascism was basically born out of the trauma of the Great War. People were left blaming the established ruling elites for the horrors they'd endured, while at the same time seeking the comfort of the certainty given by tradition and established social norms. And even then it took a second massive social trauma. the Great Depression to move it to the mainstream. But ITTL, fascism under its boulangist name has taken hold and moved into the mainstream in France. Yes it's still very much a minority movement, unable to do more than influence those in power having no possibility of gaining power in its own right. But what will happen when the trauma of the Great War hits is anybody's guess.
This is very interesting, and then poses the question of what will happen when people want to blame the ruling elites, but (most likely) like Napoleon. I could imagine some sort of coup against him taking place with a disempowered monarch being shut away to not cause trouble, but being needed as a figurehead for traditionalists. Hence, fascism under a different name with some kind of regent or prime minister acting “in the name of the emperor”.
 
I hope the empire itself can survive, the romanovs deserve to still prove themselves
I'm afraid so much is up in the air ITTL, it's impossible to comment. All I can say is the rail link the Russians are building ITTL from Finland to Narvik just might be enough to save the Empire (heavy emphasis on might). While the route is restricted by limited port facilities at Narvik and the need to ship everything by rail through Finland, it's a damn sight better than Vladivostok and the Trans Siberian Railway or Murmansk and the at this time non existent railway.
Also I think the best case scenario here is stolypin going through with his reforms to appease the more radical elements and eventually Nicky gets the chance to abdicate in favor of a family member who will get the memo and take national reform seriously if they wish to maintain any kind of power.
I always thought Stolypin's reforms where aimed at creating a conservative landed peasant class to counter and neutralism the radicals, and that they were continued by his successors. But regardless, I don't think there was enough time for them to have taken effect in the OTL and they won't have any more time ITTL. However they are fascinating. If somehow the Russian Empire ITTL can make it through the Great War without imploding, and the reforms are continued post war, the results would be unpredictable.
 
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I'm afraid so much is up in the air ITTL, it's impossible to comment. All I can say is the rail link the Russians are building ITTL from Finland to Narvik just might be enough to save the Empire (heavy emphasis on might). While the route is heavily limited by limited port facilities at Narvik and the need to ship everything by rail through Finland, it's a damn sight better than Vladivostok and the Trans Siberian Railway or Murmansk and the at this time non existent railway.
Thanks for at last giving me hope!
 
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