I mean, realistically, how is Kerry doing? I bet he has a good chance of winning this election, but as a Democrat the economy line isn't going to work, and I highly doubt we're fully out of Iraq.
Who is the Republican candidate? Has GWB discredited social conservatism, or has it only fired up the base more? Does this make a Giuliani more likely, or is Huckabee inspired? Romney seems very plausible in this timeline, with his "economy credentials" he touted earlier: Romney-Giuliani?