Which is more likely? CP victory or Nazi victory?
- Thread starter RCTFI
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David S Poepoe
Banned
I would consider an Axis Powers victory more likely than a Central Powers victory since the initial odds are greatly in favor of the Axis and they prove more capable than their opponents. The Central Powers didn't have good odds to begin with and quickly became bogged down.
Sachyriel
Banned
I thought the CP would be more likely if Russia fell to communism just a bit faster, and the entire war was the western front. It would not be very quiet. As well, tanks faster and on German side if Russia pays them off for peace while they rip themselves apart. Amoured Car + Artilery = Tank, not a big technological breakthrough, just effecient.
CP was on the brink of winning - or at least capturing Paris - in 1914 and 1918. Between those two dates, the war was more or less a stalemate. The odds were pretty even, even though US entry in 1917 greatly bolstered the Entente. Nevertheless you can justly assume that CP could have won the war if there had been some tactical adjustments. Maybe with a Moltke who has more nerves in 1914 or a Brest-Litovsk that doesn't demand a huge German occupation force in the East.
On the other hand, there is Nazi Germany. A country that has this unique strategy of pissing everbody off, because they thought they could handle them all. Reminds me of a drunken frat-boy. They could never have won WWII in this constellation: Germany against the World's biggest army (SU), biggest fleet (GB) and biggest economy (USA) combined? That's a no-brainer.
Unless, of course, you change some facts. A more realistic and less fanatic Hitler, for example. Someone who would never have declared war on the US in the first place, or someone who did not dream of killing peoples, rather trying to 'liberate' them from communism.
On the other hand, there is Nazi Germany. A country that has this unique strategy of pissing everbody off, because they thought they could handle them all. Reminds me of a drunken frat-boy. They could never have won WWII in this constellation: Germany against the World's biggest army (SU), biggest fleet (GB) and biggest economy (USA) combined? That's a no-brainer.
Unless, of course, you change some facts. A more realistic and less fanatic Hitler, for example. Someone who would never have declared war on the US in the first place, or someone who did not dream of killing peoples, rather trying to 'liberate' them from communism.
I'm not sure, but I think an axis victory would be more plausible because of the bigger succes of the axis in the starting year of the war.
My personal opinion is that a CP victory would be more likely than a Nazi victory. After all, just before the Americans were getting there in force, the Germans were on the verge of overwhelming the French - the French army was on the verge of collapse. The Brits were doing better, but still... if France gave up, there wouldn't be much point in the Brits continuing to fight the Germans, since there'd be nowhere to fight left in Europe.
CP victory. So many ways it could have happened. The UK could have stayed out, the US could have. The Germans could have moved faster and farther in beginning.
Nazi victory is close to ASB
Nazi victory is close to ASB
Mr. Evangelical
Banned
CP is more plausible.
Have Germany not interfere with Britain and The US for starters. Germany has to fix some of their strategy to something that could help them better. Switch Italy and Romania to the CP, it can help Germany by having more men on its side. With France and Russia with no one else to turn to, it gets their asses kicked.
Have Germany not interfere with Britain and The US for starters. Germany has to fix some of their strategy to something that could help them better. Switch Italy and Romania to the CP, it can help Germany by having more men on its side. With France and Russia with no one else to turn to, it gets their asses kicked.
Central Powers victory, definetly. The two combatants were equal, and in the start and at key points the CP was stronger than the Entente.
Axis? Let's see... Japan had some quick victories due to the US sleeping at the wheel for a time, and since they didn't dare touch the SU. China, random colonial fgarrisons, and Nazi steamrollers in Europe to keep the main armies busy.
The Nazis were hugely incompetent, and tried to take too much. Only hope is the USSR allying.
After a few months the Axis were overpowered by brute force of the economies, armies, and navies...
Axis? Let's see... Japan had some quick victories due to the US sleeping at the wheel for a time, and since they didn't dare touch the SU. China, random colonial fgarrisons, and Nazi steamrollers in Europe to keep the main armies busy.
The Nazis were hugely incompetent, and tried to take too much. Only hope is the USSR allying.
After a few months the Axis were overpowered by brute force of the economies, armies, and navies...
Redbeard
Banned
In 1939-40 the Axis stayed in the game mainly by the allies grossly overrating their strength, and the victory in May 1940 is based on a string of "lucky" events - in combination highly unlikely, but giving an unrealistic high estimation of German strength. The most likely outcome of WWII would have been the Germans bogging down in 1940, and Hitler soon after being replaced as a total failure.
In WWI both sides had their miracles initially, the Germans at Tannenberg and the French on the Marne, POD one of these out, and the war will probably end on that front very soon after. As a large part of the miracle at Tanneberg stemmed from incredibly incompetent Russian leadership I guess we all other things being equal need more and larger PoDs to let the Russians exploit a more favourable situation than the Germans need to exploit an absent mriacle on the Marne. Not that I think of German armies sweeping over northern France Blitzkrieg style, but I think the French government and the alliance with GB will have a fair chance of collapsing if the Front waver any more than in OTL.
Next question is how close the French came to collapse at Verdun, not far IMHO, and having Petain choke in a fois gras sandwich might do the trick.
In Italy the Italians until mid 1918 were closer to quitting than the Austrians - imagine the Italian government panicking in October 1917 (perhaps sans a brutal Cadorno to stop the rout) and quitting alongside the Russians. On top of some added pessimism on Entente side, that might give the 1918 spring offensive the extra ompfh to roll up the Entente in France. Although the Austro-Hungarians had their trouble with some unit's loyalty and enthusiasm, it would not be difficult to find say 30 high quality Divisions and add them to the 1918 spring offensive in France.
The biggest Entente chance IMO lies in Russia. Either a more competent Russian leadership in 1914 or a better planned and executed Gallipoli offensive in 1915. If the Bosporus is opened to Entente traffic, the Russian army from then on will be quite another matter than in OTL, and I doubt if the CPs can hold on.
But all in all, and IMHO, where the CP in WWI had close to 50-50 chance of winning, the Axis in WWII hardly approach a 20% chance.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
In WWI both sides had their miracles initially, the Germans at Tannenberg and the French on the Marne, POD one of these out, and the war will probably end on that front very soon after. As a large part of the miracle at Tanneberg stemmed from incredibly incompetent Russian leadership I guess we all other things being equal need more and larger PoDs to let the Russians exploit a more favourable situation than the Germans need to exploit an absent mriacle on the Marne. Not that I think of German armies sweeping over northern France Blitzkrieg style, but I think the French government and the alliance with GB will have a fair chance of collapsing if the Front waver any more than in OTL.
Next question is how close the French came to collapse at Verdun, not far IMHO, and having Petain choke in a fois gras sandwich might do the trick.
In Italy the Italians until mid 1918 were closer to quitting than the Austrians - imagine the Italian government panicking in October 1917 (perhaps sans a brutal Cadorno to stop the rout) and quitting alongside the Russians. On top of some added pessimism on Entente side, that might give the 1918 spring offensive the extra ompfh to roll up the Entente in France. Although the Austro-Hungarians had their trouble with some unit's loyalty and enthusiasm, it would not be difficult to find say 30 high quality Divisions and add them to the 1918 spring offensive in France.
The biggest Entente chance IMO lies in Russia. Either a more competent Russian leadership in 1914 or a better planned and executed Gallipoli offensive in 1915. If the Bosporus is opened to Entente traffic, the Russian army from then on will be quite another matter than in OTL, and I doubt if the CPs can hold on.
But all in all, and IMHO, where the CP in WWI had close to 50-50 chance of winning, the Axis in WWII hardly approach a 20% chance.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
The Axis did win the first 2 wars (Poland and France/Norway) - but then it had to go on and fight even more, and it lost everything.
If you had a regime that could be content with reunification of Germany into the territories of the 1914 German Empire + Austria, the Axis could have "won". But they had a nutjob who wanted world domination.
If you had a regime that could be content with reunification of Germany into the territories of the 1914 German Empire + Austria, the Axis could have "won". But they had a nutjob who wanted world domination.
Riain
Banned
CP no worries, with a bit more luck and success. If nothing else their war aims were limited and thus far more realistic. On top of that they had more quality and/or quantity of equipment before they started the war; the 2nd biggest fleet, the 2nd biggest army, more howitzers, more MGs, proficiency in air spotting artillery, exellent rail usage, good use of reserves, the list goes on.
The Nazis had ridiculous, unacheiveable war aims and at no time did they have more and better weapons than their enemies. Their early victories were a result of audacity and operational innovation, when these vanished they lost, despite the best individual fighting ability of all the combattants.
The Nazis had ridiculous, unacheiveable war aims and at no time did they have more and better weapons than their enemies. Their early victories were a result of audacity and operational innovation, when these vanished they lost, despite the best individual fighting ability of all the combattants.
Ok.If Kluck kept the right wing strong on the sweep into France I'd imagine the French might very well collapse.As for the British I would say they might try to leave the French .Interesting-what WOULD happen if the Brits just up and left the French alone?What would happen after the War?