What if instead of Britain, America went to war with Spain in 1812?

Jiraiyathegallant · Oct 4, 2018

What if the US came to some sort of resolution over most of its issues with Britain, and went to war with Spain instead?

Targeting Florida, possibly access to the Pacific, possibly Spain’s Caribbean possessions, and possibly Northern Mexico?

Could this War happen?

What are the likely range of results?

Raigaua · Oct 4, 2018

I think it might require a stronger Southern interest early on, the Golden Circle 40 years early.

Maybe something drives the price of sugar up, they reach the west coast earlier; or, a US with only the AoC allows for more planter expansionism?

Results are either moderate or really excessive IMO.

funnyhat · Oct 4, 2018

European politics obviously need to be different here - France must not be occupying Spain (unless the USA is at war with both).

Indicus · Oct 4, 2018

Perhaps Spain retains Louisiana, and this war is spurred by one of the diplomatic spats over Mississippi River trade.

Jiraiyathegallant · Oct 4, 2018

Could Spain stop America from reaching the Pacific or Cuba? Would Spain let it go after Napoleon or continue the war over it?

Mike Stearns · Oct 4, 2018

Indicus said:
Perhaps Spain retains Louisiana, and this war is spurred by one of the diplomatic spats over Mississippi River trade.

Maybe the Spanish successfully intercept the Corp of Discovery? They tried twice and on the first occasion only missed Lewis and Clark by two weeks.

Indicus · Oct 4, 2018

Mike Stearns said:
Maybe the Spanish successfully intercept the Corp of Discovery? They tried twice and on the first occasion only missed Lewis and Clark by two weeks.

I mean, the Pike Expedition was captured and it didn’t result in a war.

Lusitania · Oct 4, 2018

Ok Spain was actually occupied by France. Napoleon has installed his brother as king of Spain. The Spanish Navy was at bottom of sea. So just how and why would Spain be bothering USA? Why would USA attack Spain in 1812? Not getting the reason to go to war. Even the invasion of Florida not constitute reason for war. Spain was not in any shape to fight back. The disposition of any battle would be settled in congress of Vienna. So USA would need to compensate Spain if it tried to take Spanish Florida or French Louisiana

Sevarics · Oct 4, 2018

Probably see American Texas and Florida sooner, which then leads to possible larger conquests in an alt-Mexican American War.

Heck maybe the USA grabs Cuba too

Lusitania · Oct 4, 2018

Sevarics said:
Probably see American Texas and Florida sooner, which then leads to possible larger conquests in an alt-Mexican American War.

Heck maybe the USA grabs Cuba too

How guys? The US has no army? It was the war of 1812 fought with state militia where it got its ass kicked by british that taught the USA it needed a federal army. So maybe the US gets its ass kicked by Spanish.

PoorBoy · Oct 4, 2018

Most of you are forgetting that the biggest enemy the Americans may be facing are not the Spaniards, but the Mexicans.

PuffyClouds · Oct 4, 2018

There could be a British population in Cuba that was sold out to Spain for some reason. Georgians and South Carolinians could have been wroth over Seminole raids and fostering of runaway slaves. America could be adamant about the Louisiana Purchase extending into Tejas.

America won't get all of Texas from an 1812 War with Spain. I think this will create a costly, long term enmity. It may jump start other Spanish colonial independence wars.

Sevarics · Oct 4, 2018

The Spanish population of Florida and Texas was a couple thousand. It wouldn’t require much to capture them. State militias could probably manage.

Lusitania · Oct 5, 2018

Sevarics said:
The Spanish population of Florida and Texas was a couple thousand. It wouldn’t require much to capture them. State militias could probably manage.

Ok let’s look at few things state militia could attack Florida and take it but Texas. How they going to support it and the logistics. It a huge way to Texas. Plus you have to capture Spanish Louisiana (at least somebody said Spain still control it.) which state militia going to cross Mississippi and invade Texas in 1812? Florida that’s close but Texas. While they at it might as well go for California.

PuffyClouds · Oct 5, 2018

Sevarics said:
The Spanish population of Florida and Texas was a couple thousand. It wouldn’t require much to capture them. State militias could probably manage.

The federal and state governments have been horribly insufficient at making "well organized" militias. They didn't fare well against the Seminoles, and they weren't well against the Cherokee either. I imagine if a state committed itself, they could make a strong enough militia to do the job, it's just that they were loath to do so.

PuffyClouds · Oct 5, 2018

Also, America isn't able to physically enforce any claims in the Pacific at this point. I don't know about Spain's disposition in the north Pacific at this time frame.

Lusitania said:
Ok let’s look at few things state militia could attack Florida and take it but Texas. How they going to support it and the logistics. It a huge way to Texas. Plus you have to capture Spanish Louisiana (at least somebody said Spain still control it.) which state militia going to cross Mississippi and invade Texas in 1812? Florida that’s close but Texas. While they at it might as well go for California.

Louisiana was purchased in 1803, but if they had to conquer that, then Texas will probably be out of consideration unless the war runs very long. In that situation America might be nominally allied with Britain.

M79 · Oct 5, 2018

Spain in 1812 was a potential target but not in the Caribbean - loyalties there were still strong. Mexico is a possibility but unless the country decides to join the US en masse the more likely outcome is a cessation of OTL Guadelupe Hidalgo or something like it 30-35 years early. That makes the Oregon Country fight more interesting as there may be less pressure for a Northern railway at that point, the Columbia River may become the northern US boundary and Washington may really try for more of Mexico. Given the economic resources of Sonora and Chihuahua alone the outcome could be very interesting especially depending on where the ACW goes and whether Mexico tries for another Empire in between.

unprincipled peter · Oct 5, 2018

presuming things are recognizably OTL (France invades Spain, US still having a conniption fit about Britain), I wonder how Britain would treat the war? in 1812, they're allied with Spain (any part of it that is battling Napoleon), and if their is still impressment crisis, the US may find itself fighting two countries. If the US cuts its teeth on Spain, when it takes on Britain, it's military could be ready, changing up the whole beginning of the British war - could we see US getting that golden chalice of mythological quests and taking Canada?

The whole thing is a mess: neither Spain, nor the US has much navy. Florida is the easiest target, and probably can be taken. Texas is ripe for the taking, as Mexico is in a state of rebellion and has its hands full in the main part of the colony (does this state of war put the rebellion on hold, or give it new life?), but as stated above, it is probably too far for the US to get to.

changing the state of Louisiana puts too many unknown variables into the equation. 10 years of continued ownership by Spain/France means 10 more years of growth and the territory is in a state of solid growth, especially New Orleans. We don't know who holds it, or how events have played out. Britain may have taken it from either France or Spain. The easiest assumption for any rational discussion is to leave it as OTL.

Lusitania · Oct 5, 2018

unprincipled peter said:
presuming things are recognizably OTL (France invades Spain, US still having a conniption fit about Britain), I wonder how Britain would treat the war? in 1812, they're allied with Spain (any part of it that is battling Napoleon), and if their is still impressment crisis, the US may find itself fighting two countries. If the US cuts its teeth on Spain, when it takes on Britain, it's military could be ready, changing up the whole beginning of the British war - could we see US getting that golden chalice of mythological quests and taking Canada?

The whole thing is a mess: neither Spain, nor the US has much navy. Florida is the easiest target, and probably can be taken. Texas is ripe for the taking, as Mexico is in a state of rebellion and has its hands full in the main part of the colony (does this state of war put the rebellion on hold, or give it new life?), but as stated above, it is probably too far for the US to get to.

changing the state of Louisiana puts too many unknown variables into the equation. 10 years of continued ownership by Spain/France means 10 more years of growth and the territory is in a state of solid growth, especially New Orleans. We don't know who holds it, or how events have played out. Britain may have taken it from either France or Spain. The easiest assumption for any rational discussion is to leave it as OTL.

I keep seeing USA Army, what army? Invade Texas, how, how they able to support troops that far (what troops)? US invade Texas (Yeah) Mexico (new Spain troops march in and defeat them, who can rely on locals to provide support and intelligence. Like I said US best bet is concentrate on Florida but even taking will require US then negotiate with Spain. Then there is the thing about Spanish Louisiana, which it would have to send milita and find canons because the forts along the territory have them too. What about New Orleans, if that port city was still under Spanish or French control at start of Napoleonic wars after Spain falls under French control the British may decide to take the city. How will US react? I understand you all love playing Europa Universalis but this real we talking about not fantasy. Can some one tell how the USA in 1812 not 1830 going to accomplish that.

unprincipled peter · Oct 5, 2018

Lusitania said:
I keep seeing USA Army, what army? Invade Texas, how, how they able to support troops that far (what troops)? US invade Texas (Yeah) Mexico (new Spain troops march in and defeat them, who can rely on locals to provide support and intelligence. Like I said US best bet is concentrate on Florida but even taking will require US then negotiate with Spain. Then there is the thing about Spanish Louisiana, which it would have to send milita and find canons because the forts along the territory have them too. What about New Orleans, if that port city was still under Spanish or French control at start of Napoleonic wars after Spain falls under French control the British may decide to take the city. How will US react? I understand you all love playing Europa Universalis but this real we talking about not fantasy. Can some one tell how the USA in 1812 not 1830 going to accomplish that.

I didn't make it clear, but I agree with most of your posts on this thread.
the US had a horrible plan for a military. That was made clear in the OTL war of 1812, and they took steps to correct it, and by the end of that conflict, were much better than at the beginning. There's no reason to think the same wouldn't hold true in TTL.
Still, The US was not the juggernaut it became later on. They would be able to defend their homeland, so they wouldn't be defeated, but they were limited in their ability to project force. there was a lot of opportunity for conquest, but limited means to achieve it.

on Texas: it was a long way for Spanish/Mexican forces to project power into as well. they still had the inside track over the US, but it was a region wide open to be taken. Mexico/Spain had a rebellion on their hands and wouldn't be able to prosecute a war to the fullest and aren't likely to be too eager to venture too far from the heart of the homeland. As you said, and which I agree with, there remains that pesky problem of the US having the army, logistics, and ability to take advantage of the situation.