What if Hitler won world war 2?

[Karlmarx900]

I know this is is often repeated but hear me out. This is my guess about how Hitler could have won world war 2:

By having some of the German army invade and occupy the Middle East or just Arabia. The allies would have run out of oil and would have asked the axis powers for peace.

 

[Dorknought]

Not all oil was from Mid East.

1940 production:
USA 182.657 Mt
USSR 29.700 Mt
Venezuela 27.443 Mt
Iran 10.426 Mt
Indonesia 7.939 Mt
Mexico 6.721 Mt
Romania 5.764 Mt
Columbia 3.636 Mt
Iraq 3.438 Mt
Argentina 2.871 Mt
Trinidad 2.844 Mt
Peru 1.776 Mt
Burma 1.088 Mt
Canada 1.082 Mt
Egypt 0.929 Mt
(Mt means millions of metric tons of crude oil produced for the whole year)

 

[YYJ]

What if Hitler invaded all those other places too?

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Logistics - Lack of

North African ports and roads were inadequate to support Axis forces any larger than Rommel's OTL forces. And keeping him supplied was very difficult. PanzerArmee Africa ran out of fuel and ammo short of Alexandria and the Canal after each of his victories. Despite capturing lots from the British Commonwealth forces.

There's also the problem that the El Alamein position is impossible to turn and any competently led force would be very difficult to dislodge from it. (Mind you, competently led is not guaranteed up to late 1942. The opposite applied at Gazala.)

There is a TL on this Board that has Rommel winning a greater victory at Gazala and capturing Egypt. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Even then there were other British forces that could have blocked Rommel.

Otherwise, Germany has to either browbeat Turkey into joining the Axis or invade through it then Syria and Palestine. Defeating British forces on the way. A logistical nightmare too.

The last option would be airborne operations against Cyprus and then Syria. Paving the way for troops to be landed by sea.

After the losses of paratroops at Crete this is very implausible. And the RN licks its lips .

Now, the Mediterranean (or Med plus Atlantic) strategy does look attractive in late 1940. It offers at least a chance of beating the British Commonwealth and Empire. BUT

1) It will take a long time.
Forces have to be built up (and kept supplied and up to strength). Each step takes time, e.g. neutralise and capture Malta. Then supply Rommel sufficiently to fight through to the canal. Then regroup and occupy Sinai and ... and... etc.

2) Resources dedicated to this strategy aren't available for maintaining an army and air force capable of defeating or even deterring the Red Army.
Destroying the USSR and seizing its European resources was the core goal of Hitler's regime. The longer he waited, the harder this would be.

3) The USA was providing ever greater material and financial support to Britain. For sound geopolitical reasons, not sentiment or a Special Relationship.
The greater the German successes OTL, the more support Britain received. At some point the US would join the War, as Germans saw it.

So this strategy looks unworkable. Better to seize the resources in European Russia and then build Festung Europa to fend off an Anglo-American onslaught.

 

[YYJ]

Not all oil was from Mid East.

1940 production:
USA 182.657 Mt
USSR 29.700 Mt
Venezuela 27.443 Mt
Iran 10.426 Mt
Indonesia 7.939 Mt
Mexico 6.721 Mt
Romania 5.764 Mt
Columbia 3.636 Mt
Iraq 3.438 Mt
Argentina 2.871 Mt
Trinidad 2.844 Mt
Peru 1.776 Mt
Burma 1.088 Mt
Canada 1.082 Mt
Egypt 0.929 Mt
(Mt means millions of metric tons of crude oil produced for the whole year)

So all joking aside, Arabia produces no oil in 1940? How about that. Wikipedia sez Al-Ahsa oilfields discovered 1938, Aramco put them into production 1941. The things I learn at AH.com

 

[Belisarius II]

What if Hitler invaded all those other places too?

That would be impossible.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Not all oil was from Mid East.

1940 production:
USA 182.657 Mt
USSR 29.700 Mt
Venezuela 27.443 Mt
Iran 10.426 Mt
Indonesia 7.939 Mt
Mexico 6.721 Mt
Romania 5.764 Mt
Columbia 3.636 Mt
Iraq 3.438 Mt
Argentina 2.871 Mt
Trinidad 2.844 Mt
Peru 1.776 Mt
Burma 1.088 Mt
Canada 1.082 Mt
Egypt 0.929 Mt
(Mt means millions of metric tons of crude oil produced for the whole year)

This post alone makes this thread worth it. Huzza.

 

[naraic]

So all joking aside, Arabia produces no oil in 1940? How about that. Wikipedia sez Al-Ahsa oilfields discovered 1938, Aramco put them into production 1941. The things I learn at AH.com

I remember being really confused the first time I played hearts of iron 1. I made a point of conquering Arabia as Germany. I assumed my oil problems would suddenly fix itself. No luck.

 

[Resurgam]

On top of the oil, Germany is still facing the world's largest economy, the world's largest empire, and the world's largest country/army... all three of which are not in a good mood.

That's simply insurmountable without Reboot!Wolfenstein-esque ASB tech developed by the Germans.

 

[Garrison]

So all joking aside, Arabia produces no oil in 1940? How about that. Wikipedia sez Al-Ahsa oilfields discovered 1938, Aramco put them into production 1941. The things I learn at AH.com

It produces oil, but Allied supplies come from the Americas, not the Middle East. Large discoveries in the USA in the 1930's helped drive oil prices down. Also how would the Nazis transport the oil and it would do nothing to fix Germany's other problems.

I know this is is often repeated but hear me out. This is my guess about how Hitler could have won world war 2:

By having some of the German army invade and occupy the Middle East or just Arabia. The allies would have run out of oil and would have asked the axis powers for peace.

As pointed out above the Allies don't depend on Middle East oil. And the idea of the Germans seizing the oil supplies of the Middle East has also been discussed many times.

 

[Hammerbolt]

The best shot the germans had of getting to any middle east oil was the half-ass$d try of supporting the Iraq revolt of 1941. If, somehow, that actually succeeded (much ASB?) then the allies would have some problems. But, afaik, that's it.

 

[Garrison]

The best shot the germans had of getting to any middle east oil was the half-ass$d try of supporting the Iraq revolt of 1941. If, somehow, that actually succeeded (much ASB?) then the allies would have some problems. But, afaik, that's it.

The Germans could do little to support the coup, which was a bad plan in the first place and the British crushed it easily. I don't think there is any reasonable way it could have succeeded

 

[thaddeus]

North African ports and roads were inadequate to support Axis forces any larger than Rommel's OTL forces. And keeping him supplied was very difficult. PanzerArmee Africa ran out of fuel and ammo short of Alexandria and the Canal after each of his victories. Despite capturing lots from the British Commonwealth forces.

There's also the problem that the El Alamein position is impossible to turn and any competently led force would be very difficult to dislodge from it. (Mind you, competently led is not guaranteed up to late 1942. The opposite applied at Gazala.)

There is a TL on this Board that has Rommel winning a greater victory at Gazala and capturing Egypt. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Even then there were other British forces that could have blocked Rommel.

Otherwise, Germany has to either browbeat Turkey into joining the Axis or invade through it then Syria and Palestine. Defeating British forces on the way. A logistical nightmare too.

The last option would be airborne operations against Cyprus and then Syria. Paving the way for troops to be landed by sea.

After the losses of paratroops at Crete this is very implausible. And the RN licks its lips .

Now, the Mediterranean (or Med plus Atlantic) strategy does look attractive in late 1940. It offers at least a chance of beating the British Commonwealth and Empire. BUT

1) It will take a long time.
Forces have to be built up (and kept supplied and up to strength). Each step takes time, e.g. neutralise and capture Malta. Then supply Rommel sufficiently to fight through to the canal. Then regroup and occupy Sinai and ... and... etc.

2) Resources dedicated to this strategy aren't available for maintaining an army and air force capable of defeating or even deterring the Red Army.
Destroying the USSR and seizing its European resources was the core goal of Hitler's regime. The longer he waited, the harder this would be.

3) The USA was providing ever greater material and financial support to Britain. For sound geopolitical reasons, not sentiment or a Special Relationship.
The greater the German successes OTL, the more support Britain received. At some point the US would join the War, as Germans saw it.

So this strategy looks unworkable. Better to seize the resources in European Russia and then build Festung Europa to fend off an Anglo-American onslaught.

historically the Nazi regime backed the Iraqi coup, which failed quickly and the British followed up by evicting the Vichy French from Syria-Lebanon. a better plan would have been to concentrate on inserting themselves into Syria? my speculation would be to return the Dodecanese islands along the Turkish coast to Greek (German) control, a price for Italy to pay for German help in N. Africa?

from Syria they could agitate for a renewed Palestinian uprising, menace Baku (if they wanted) and Cyprus? and be supplied thru Turkey? there also was the expectation (which proved correct) that Syria had oil reserves too.

 

[Post]

historically the Nazi regime backed the Iraqi coup, which failed quickly and the British followed up by evicting the Vichy French from Syria-Lebanon. a better plan would have been to concentrate on inserting themselves into Syria? my speculation would be to return the Dodecanese islands along the Turkish coast to Greek (German) control, a price for Italy to pay for German help in N. Africa?

from Syria they could agitate for a renewed Palestinian uprising, menace Baku (if they wanted) and Cyprus? and be supplied thru Turkey? there also was the expectation (which proved correct) that Syria had oil reserves too.

It's still quite a long way through Turkey and Irak, and not the most hospitable terrain. The infrastructure will be pretty bad too. And logistics wasn't the Germans' strongest point (to put it mildly).

To menace Baku from Turkey means going straight through the Caucasus. Works great in games, but not so much in real life. And the distances are quite large too. Everything has to be transported from Germany, through the Balkans and Turkey, before you even get in Russia.

I'm sure it'll shorten the war though.

 

[Garrison]

historically the Nazi regime backed the Iraqi coup, which failed quickly and the British followed up by evicting the Vichy French from Syria-Lebanon. a better plan would have been to concentrate on inserting themselves into Syria? my speculation would be to return the Dodecanese islands along the Turkish coast to Greek (German) control, a price for Italy to pay for German help in N. Africa?

from Syria they could agitate for a renewed Palestinian uprising, menace Baku (if they wanted) and Cyprus? and be supplied thru Turkey? there also was the expectation (which proved correct) that Syria had oil reserves.

The Italians were already fully committed to North Africa,the only reason the Germans are there in the first place is to bail them out so trading the Dodecanese gains nothing, The other option means either occupying Turkey or persuading them to join the Axis, neither of which is likely, and then supplying an army all the way to the Levant and Syria.Also Syrian oll wasn't successfully drilled for until the 1950s, exploration in the 1930s failed miserably, so the Nazis would have to find the oil, build the infrastucture to extract it and then ship it back to Germany. By comparison Case Blue looks like the sensible option, this is both beyond Germany's capabilities and a gamble that there might be oil they can extract in Syria, and again oil is not the only thing Germany is short of and none of the other critical resources will be found in the Middle East.

 

[thaddeus]

historically the Nazi regime backed the Iraqi coup, which failed quickly and the British followed up by evicting the Vichy French from Syria-Lebanon. a better plan would have been to concentrate on inserting themselves into Syria? my speculation would be to return the Dodecanese islands along the Turkish coast to Greek (German) control, a price for Italy to pay for German help in N. Africa?

from Syria they could agitate for a renewed Palestinian uprising, menace Baku (if they wanted) and Cyprus? and be supplied thru Turkey? there also was the expectation (which proved correct) that Syria had oil reserves too.

It's still quite a long way through Turkey and Irak, and not the most hospitable terrain. The infrastructure will be pretty bad too. And logistics wasn't the Germans' strongest point (to put it mildly).

To menace Baku from Turkey means going straight through the Caucasus. Works great in games, but not so much in real life. And the distances are quite large too. Everything has to be transported from Germany, through the Balkans and Turkey, before you even get in Russia.

the air bases constructed in Syria by the French were to bomb Baku, and when this information, the planning for this, was captured by the Germans, they made a big deal of this, that they had in effect spoiled the putative Operation Pike.

in the Med Strategy, or at least one variant of it ...

"An advance from Suez through Palestine and Syria as far as Turkey is necessary. If we reach that point, Turkey will be in our power. The Russian problem will then appear in a different light ... It is doubtful whether an advance against Russia from the north will be necessary"

Erich Raeder during World War II - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

my speculation was that if they could have gotten into Syria while it was still under control of the Vichy regime, they would not have to advance across Egypt, Suez, and Palestine. and the fact they were in possession of air bases within range of Baku would be known by the Soviets.

NOT that they would drive tanks from Syria towards the Caucasus, that they could menace them by virtue of bombing.

 

[Monk78]

I know this is is often repeated but hear me out. This is my guess about how Hitler could have won world war 2:

By having some of the German army invade and occupy the Middle East or just Arabia. The allies would have run out of oil and would have asked the axis powers for peace.

Unless a whole army group of Germans convert and go for Hajj to Holy Mecca ( with Lugers hidden under their ahram as you cannot bear arms there ) there is no realistic way of them getting there

 

[thaddeus]

The Italians were already fully committed to North Africa,the only reason the Germans are there in the first place is to bail them out so trading the Dodecanese gains nothing, The other option means either occupying Turkey or persuading them to join the Axis, neither of which is likely, and then supplying an army all the way to the Levant and Syria.Also Syrian oll wasn't successfully drilled for until the 1950s, exploration in the 1930s failed miserably, so the Nazis would have to find the oil, build the infrastucture to extract it and then ship it back to Germany. By comparison Case Blue looks like the sensible option, this is both beyond Germany's capabilities and a gamble that there might be oil they can extract in Syria, and again oil is not the only thing Germany is short of and none of the other critical resources will be found in the Middle East.

they could operate from the Dodecanese alongside the Italians, I was simply expressing an opinion on something that would have been favorably viewed by Turkey which perceived their enemies as 1. USSR 2. Italy

oil in Syria? the pipeline from Iraq to the Med ran across Syria and Palestine, if the Germans were in Syria they would have leverage over that oil flow. in 1941 they could have a reasonable expectation of some negotiated end to the war and a reasonable expectation of oilfields in Syria itself.

this is in a discussion of a Med or ME strategy (at least on my part) as an alternative to invading the USSR.

 

[Captain Homicide]

By having some of the German army invade and occupy the Middle East or just Arabia. The allies would have run out of oil and would have asked the axis powers for peace.

As explained this is extremely implausible for a variety of reasons. There are a few PODs that could feasibly allow the Reich to win (taking Moscow, peace with Britain, Stalin dies or starts purging people and a civil war happens etc) and they’ve been detailed in various TLs on this site (AANW, The Fatherland etc).

Assuming the WAllies are still in the war after the USSR is defeated the ultimate question is whether or not the WAllies would be willing to pay the blood price it would take to defeat a continental power run by fanatics. I personally think there’s at least a 40% chance of the WAllies making peace after the USSR falls but the topic has been discussed thoroughly on the forum.

 

[Garrison]

they could operate from the Dodecanese alongside the Italians, I was simply expressing an opinion on something that would have been favorably viewed by Turkey which perceived their enemies as 1. USSR 2. Italy

oil in Syria? the pipeline from Iraq to the Med ran across Syria and Palestine, if the Germans were in Syria they would have leverage over that oil flow. in 1941 they could have a reasonable expectation of some negotiated end to the war and a reasonable expectation of oilfields in Syria itself.

this is in a discussion of a Med or ME strategy (at least on my part) as an alternative to invading the USSR.

There is no oil flowing from Syria and where will the resources come from to create these oilfields and build a pipeline? And there is only so much Axis shipping in the Med so if you want your advance through the Dodecanese, offering multiple opportunities to the Royal Navy to intervene then that means resources don't go to Libya, making life much easier for the British. This notion that Turkey would be interested in joining the Axis is contradicted by the OTL historical record, as frankly is pretty much everything in you suggestion. The Middle East is not a viable alternative to Barbarossa, oil is not the be all and end all of Germany's problems. I actually remember reading about both these ideas in one of the What if? series of books years ago, the author demolished them then and nobody's offered anything since that makes either option one bit more realistic.