Instead of dying in 1762,Empress Elizabeth of Russia lives until 1763. Frederick of Prussia loses the Seven Years' War. In the Peace Treaty of Dresden, Austria regains Silesia, East Prussia is transferred to Poland which transfers Courland to Russia and all of Pomerania is transferred to Sweden. Would the treaties concerning Britain, France and Spain still occur as IOTL? Would any other territorial changes happen?
What if Empress Elizabeth lives for another year
- Thread starter Musketeer513
- Start date
There may be differences since France would be able to claim prussian possessions in Rhineland and Westphalia and try to trade them either in a deal with Britain or with Austria.
Maybe. It depends on the solution you choose.
I can hardly see how it could change the British-Spanish settlement.
I can hardly imagine it would affect the British-French colonial settlement.
This will mainly affect the settlement in Europe.
I think a future butterfly of this outcome would be no War of the Bavarian Succession. Emperor Joseph would be able to trade the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria, greatly strengthening Austria's position in Germany. I also wonder would there be the 1772 Partition of Poland?
I can see that there would be no Partition of Poland in 1772. Possibly a war between Austria and Russia after the Russo-Ottoman War.
According to the alliance treaties France cant expect anything major. Originally France was to get the austrian Netherlands however France gave this up and in excange significantly decreased both its military and its monetary contribution. So even if Austria wins France gets basically nothing. And according to all of the alliance treaties austria was due one more - not specified - Prussian province in case of victory. I also dont think Sweden would get the whole of Pommern - I think only the formerly swedish Vorpommern was promised. They military contribution also doesnt merit more. Saxony also might gaim something - though it didnt do much.
There are treaties and there are realities... France might accept a blank peace if Austria does not conclude back-alley deals (the Curland-Prussia and the Netherlands-Bavaria exchanges). If Austria goes for more, compensations would be expected. As OTL, these compensations would benefit to Bourbon satellite states rather than France proper. The Duke of Parma, who at one point was promised the ANL, son in law of Louis XV and cousin to Maria Teresa is likely to gain some lands.
An Austria with Bavaria and Silesia would be in a strong position to unify Germany. I wonder if they could get away with accumulating more electoral votes, despite the precedents.
Britain would go to war over this, making peace with America if necessary.
France bankrolled Austria (280,000 florins/month), so they definitively had a word to say. Plus, without the Prussians, the Hessian campaign of 1762 (Wilhelmsthal is june 24) would not be easy for the Hanoverians.
And how do they win this?They have virtually no allies left on the Continent.
unprincipled peter
Donor
The Bavarian swap thing was a decade later under a different ruler. It shouldn't be in play at the end of the seven years war. It might have an effect if OTL's bavarian succession crisis hits because while virtually no one wanted Austria to have half of Bavaria (the deal), it was Prussia who actually stood up to them. Here, any Prussia existing would not have the oomph to stand up to Austria. If Russia doesn't make Austria back off, France would have to decide whether to continue meddling in America, concentrate on the continent, or try doing both. (presuming history proceeds as OTL.)
What's Britain going to do about stopping France from gaining Austrian Netherlands? France has lost pretty much everything, but they must have something left non continental for Britain to take. Britain rules the seas and can take anything they want from France and their buddy Spain. Every day France stays in the war, Britain gets stronger. As it OTL ended, a lot of English were upset such an easy peace was settled. They could have easily demanded more. Britain holds all the aces, while France has one pair of two's - Minorca. Britain doesn't have to land a boot on the continent to make France cry uncle.
What's Britain going to do about stopping France from gaining Austrian Netherlands? France has lost pretty much everything, but they must have something left non continental for Britain to take. Britain rules the seas and can take anything they want from France and their buddy Spain. Every day France stays in the war, Britain gets stronger. As it OTL ended, a lot of English were upset such an easy peace was settled. They could have easily demanded more. Britain holds all the aces, while France has one pair of two's - Minorca. Britain doesn't have to land a boot on the continent to make France cry uncle.
The most promising route for them would be to ally with Portugal, the Dutch Republic, minor German states and Russia (by agreeing to concessions like defence against the Ottomans), bogging France/Austria down on the continent and waging a colonial war.
I agree that Britain is in a crappy position, but low countries being in French hands was a red line for them.
That wasn't a huge subsidy so they get some say, but not much. Probably some minor Italian holdings.
The British would up their subsidies to replace the limited number of Prussian troops with more mercenaries. The 1762 campaign was a last ditch effort without much prospect of success
One other question is what Peter would do when he comes in after the peace. With Prussia reduced to just Brandenburg, is he still pro-Brandenburg? Does he instead project his Germanophilia on to Austria? Does he try to create a new Prussian-like state under his control with his new East Prussia holding?
Russia is not going to fight war against France for the Austrian Netherlands.
No, but it might fight a war against Austria to stop them consolidating Germany.
I think France will agree with the Russians on that.....
At any rate,if France gets the Austrian Netherlands during this period,then there's no way Britain could have gotten them out.Britain might offer to return the colonies,but after the debacle in the Austrian War of Succession where Louis lost his credibility to his people for returning the Austrian Netherlands,France will probably say lol no.