What if Barbarossa and Pearl Harbor are delayed a year or more?

[DireSituation]

I'm working on a TL, and I need more insight on how things might have changed, from drastic to small changes if Nazi Germany initiated Operation Barbarossa in 1942 or 1943.

Would it have been easier/harder? Would Axis logistics have more time to prepare and develop for a farther front? Or would the USSR have more time to prepare as 1941 comes and passes? Where would the Eastern Front stand in May 8, 1945, when OTL Germany surrendered?

Same for Imperial Japan. With no action against American territory and forces (Philippines, Guam, etc.) on December 7, while still attacking Hong Kong, Singapore, Indochina, non-American Pacific oil sources, etc, would they have fared better by 1945?

I'm taking this as seriously as possible, and there have been no other changes other than the ones butterflied away by the delays (e.g. research, development, production, intelligence, diplomacy would be subsequently affected).

Alors, where would the world stand in 1945 if both offensives were delayed, to say, 1943?

 

[BlairWitch749]

feel free to see my tl Rommel's Barbarossa 1942 which is in the process of exploring this very idea. I don't have any experitse in the Pacific so that is left outside the scale of the TL but feel free to piggy back anything you think helps

 

[The Red]

The war is a lot shorter, presuming the US gets involved in Europe which is very likely. Japan will be even more strained by the embargo and the USSR will be much better equppied. The war will have ended several months before May.

If it happened in 1943 the effects are even worse for the Axis. Stalin could potentially invade Manchruia but even if he doesn't the Japanese will be doing much worse economically than in OTL. The Soviets by this point will have completed their reforms and may, in fact launch a pre-emptive strike. The war will end a lot quicker, possibly by Mid-1944.

 

[DireSituation]

Huh. So Japan truly needed some near-ASB changes to help them by the time the war started.

Now say Japan goes on as OTL. I'm more interested in what would have happened if Moscow was properly taken (Barbarossa dates back to OTL). Being the major supply head of the Red Army, would the USSR have been struck to their knees by the end of 1941? Or would they've recovered somehow in the long run?

Sorry for my constant asking, but history references don't give a good idea on how changes would have affected it.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Huh. So Japan truly needed some near-ASB changes to help them by the time the war started.

Now say Japan goes on as OTL. I'm more interested in what would have happened if Moscow was properly taken (Barbarossa dates back to OTL). Being the major supply head of the Red Army, would the USSR have been struck to their knees by the end of 1941? Or would they've recovered somehow in the long run?

Sorry for my constant asking, but history references don't give a good idea on how changes would have affected it.

It is almost impossible to consider because the Germans would have to dangerously overextend themselves to capture Moscow (ie crossing the Moscow Volga canal in strength) They would be extremely vulnerable to having their flanks obliterated and being cut off... Moscow is a huge city with strong concrete buildings that will not fall apart from light artillery or airstrikes of the day... the German Army of 1941 did not have infantry forces trained for such fighting nor did they possess the necessary amounts of mobile heavy artillery that could be used to suppress the buildings of Moscow... you are basically creating Stalingrad a year early which Red and I have fully explored in failure before Moscow (in his sig if you want to check it out)

the otl barbarossa fall of Moscow is a myth... the Germans might have reached the city but they were never going to capture it given that Stalin 150,000 militia in the city plus a couple of tank battalions there ready to turn the city into a bloodbath... the only way Moscow would ever fall would be if it was cut off and starved into submission (encircling past Moscow was far past the capabilities of the 1941 German army and the front would have been stretched beyond their ability to hold it)

a 1942 barbarossa can be somewhat successful assuming the germans optimize their armored divisions but the objectives have to be very modest and the germans need to conduct mobile battles of attrition against the red army and take advantage of their experience and talented command staffs... basically they would have to fight the whole conflict like the miracle of the donets or Manstein's backhand blow but this would likely not achieve anything like the gains or casualties from barbarossa 1941

 

[DireSituation]

World War 2 alternate history is truly constricted by realism, I suppose. Well thanks though, I'm getting sufficient information from several timelines already done.

 

[Paul MacQ]

As mentioned in a couple of Posts , for the Pacific the Japanese struck when they Historically were about as strong as they were going to get vs. the US.

Japan striking a year later will mean massive improvements of the US compared to Japan.

First of the Essex Class being available The Wildcats replacing Buffaloes and the something like a Hellcat just around the corner,

Also little things like all the Weapons being produced in lend lease means that Production of things like the M4 Sherman replacing the M3 Lee in numbers.

Also the US were building up in the Pacific

Philippians would be so much stronger the Pacific Island would have SCR-270 radar in numbers and Doctrine of this new Tech mostly sorted out, so in a Pacific War the Japanese would be not surprising the US on the ground so often

Also a year on give the US a chance to sort things like Unreliable Torpedoes out,

The Industrial might of the US and when it comes down to it the More advanced Technologies, Would overwhelm the Japanese so much Faster and the Japanese certainly would not have advanced as far as they did OTL

 

[Wolfman]

As mentioned in a couple of Posts , for the Pacific the Japanese struck when they Historically were about as strong as they were going to get vs. the US.

Japan striking a year later will mean massive improvements of the US compared to Japan.

First of the Essex Class being available The Wildcats replacing Buffaloes and the something like a Hellcat just around the corner,

Also little things like all the Weapons being produced in lean lease means that Production of things like the M4 Sherman replacing the M3 Lee in numbers.

Also the US were building up in the Pacific

Philippians would be so much stronger the Pacific Island would have SCR-270 radar in numbers and Doctrine of this new Tech mostly sorted out, so in a Pacific War the Japanese would be not surprising the US on the ground so often

Also a year on give the US a chance to sort things like Unreliable Torpedoes out,

The Industrial might of the US and when it comes down to it the More advanced Technologies, Would overwhelm the Japanese so much Faster and the Japanese certainly would not have advanced as far as they did OTL

I don't think BuOrd would listen to anybody about any problems with their torpedoes, it took admirals IOTL to ram the fact that their torpedo was worse than useless because of how unreliable it was...

 

[Paul MacQ]

I don't think BuOrd would listen to anybody about any problems with their torpedoes, it took admirals IOTL to ram the fact that their torpedo was worse than useless because of how unreliable it was...

Probably true, it is why I said a chance. Probably a poor chance.

 

[altamiro]

The Red Army was caught flatfooted in 1941 in the middle of major reorganization (after the capable commanding staff was executed). This would be finished in 1942 already, with possibly only slightly less (or even more) capable officers taking the command.
Plus, Stalin would have one more year for the intelligence reports about German hostile intentions to sink in. He may well be swayed by them in the end - and he may not attack first, but he will definitely make sure that the Red Army is prepared for defense.

 

[The Red]

The Red Army was caught flatfooted in 1941 in the middle of major reorganization (after the capable commanding staff was executed). This would be finished in 1942 already, with possibly only slightly less (or even more) capable officers taking the command.

The reforms wouldn't have been finished by 1942 and I don't see how an extra year all of a sudden makes the officers any better or worse. The main advantage will be that the Soviets have much larger amounts of better equipment

Plus, Stalin would have one more year for the intelligence reports about German hostile intentions to sink in. He may well be swayed by them in the end - and he may not attack first, but he will definitely make sure that the Red Army is prepared for defense.

I agree, he always thought the invaasion would come in 1942. And full Red Army alertness would also be a major advantage.

 

[CalBear]

Ever day the Japanese delayed in attacking the USN they lost ground.

Between 12/41 and 12/31/42 the U.S. launched or commissioned:

Two Essex Class CV
Three South Dakota Class BB
Four Atlanta Class CLAA
Seven Cleveland Class CL
Twenty-Four Benson Class DD
Forty-Three Greaves Class DD
Forty-One Fletcher Class DD
(That is a total of 108 DD. At no point in the War did the IJN have more than 60 modern destroyers)
Thirty-one Gato Class SS

The USN also had replaced nearly all of the quad 1.1" AA guns with 40mm Borfors by the end of 1942. The Army also had all of its 3 inch AAA on Oahu hooked into radar guidance by 1/1/43.

New aircraft that reached full operational status

B-17 E
B-17 F
B-24 D
B-24 E
B-25 C/D (same aircraft design, but built at two different plants)
B-25G
B-26 B/C (same aircraft design, but built at two different plants)
TBF
A-26
F4F-4
F4U-1
P-38 F
P-38 G
P-40 K
P-47 E, F, G
P-51 A
(Note: The Hellcat was ordered in JUNE of 1941 and the first flight of the XF6F-3 with the R-2800 Double Wasp engine was on July 30, 1942. Contrary to popular myth, the Hellcat was not a reaction to the A6M, nor did it rely on a captured A6M from the Aleutians for any part of its design)

The interesting part of ALL of these ships and aircraft is that their procurement was approved by Congress in 1940 as a reaction to the Fall of France.

Imagine the Japanese trying to hit Pearl with a dozen fully functional and calibrated air search radars and 100 P-38s as part of the fighter force. Imagine trying for the Philippines with 200 P-40K and 150 B-17E on the tarmacs with radar coverage of the entire Formosa Strait. (gee, somebody should do a T/L with that... Oh, ya... )

The Japanese had to hit the U.S. as soon as they had the forces available, which is what they did as soon as Shokaku & Zuikaku finished shakedown.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Ever day the Japanese delayed in attacking the USN they lost ground.

Between 12/41 and 12/31/42 the U.S. launched or commissioned:

Two Essex Class CV
Three South Dakota Class BB
Four Atlanta Class CLAA
Seven Cleveland Class CL
Twenty-Four Benson Class DD
Forty-Three Greaves Class DD
Forty-One Fletcher Class DD
(That is a total of 108 DD. At no point in the War did the IJN have more than 60 modern destroyers)
Thirty-one Gato Class SS

The USN also had replaced nearly all of the quad 1.1" AA guns with 40mm Borfors by the end of 1942. The Army also had all of its 3 inch AAA on Oahu hooked into radar guidance by 1/1/43.

New aircraft that reached full operational status

B-17 E
B-17 F
B-24 D
B-24 E
B-25 C/D (same aircraft design, but built at two different plants)
B-25G
B-26 B/C (same aircraft design, but built at two different plants)
TBF
A-26
F4F-4
F4U-1
P-38 F
P-38 G
P-40 K
P-47 E, F, G
P-51 A
(Note: The Hellcat was ordered in JUNE of 1941 and the first flight of the XF6F-3 with the R-2800 Double Wasp engine was on July 30, 1942. Contrary to popular myth, the Hellcat was not a reaction to the A6M, nor did it rely on a captured A6M from the Aleutians for any part of its design)

The interesting part of ALL of these ships and aircraft is that their procurement was approved by Congress in 1940 as a reaction to the Fall of France.

Imagine the Japanese trying to hit Pearl with a dozen fully functional and calibrated air search radars and 100 P-38s as part of the fighter force. Imagine trying for the Philippines with 200 P-40K and 150 B-17E on the tarmacs with radar coverage of the entire Formosa Strait. (gee, somebody should do a T/L with that... Oh, ya... )

The Japanese had to hit the U.S. as soon as they had the forces available, which is what they did as soon as Shokaku & Zuikaku finished shakedown.

Calbear, wouldn't some of that OTL naval production not be completed as fast without an actual declaration of war and or might they not transfer some ships to the Atlantic or lend lease some to the British if the Japanese are behaving themselves (relatively)?.... The Americans did increase their ship building efforts and add more shifts after Pearl Harbor (I don't know how many less boats there would be but it must have some impact even if it is a modest one)

Japan is screwed regardless... there is no possible Rising Sun Victorious scenario against the United States that works... in their case delay is disasterous but with the Germans it is potentially mixed

 

[Paul MacQ]

Imagine the Japanese trying to hit Pearl with a dozen fully functional and calibrated air search radars and 100 P-38s as part of the fighter force. Imagine trying for the Philippines with 200 P-40K and 150 B-17E on the tarmacs with radar coverage of the entire Formosa Strait. (gee, somebody should do a T/L with that... Oh, ya... )

The Japanese had to hit the U.S. as soon as they had the forces available, which is what they did as soon as Shokaku & Zuikaku finished shakedown.

Was waiting for the CalBear to Comment . nice tio see all the Numbers,

Could anyone see even the Japanese high command thinking of Taking on the US with these numbers on the US side ??

Reading Places like Midway a Wake get massively harder to hit also.

 

[CalBear]

Calbear, wouldn't some of that OTL naval production not be completed as fast without an actual declaration of war and or might they not transfer some ships to the Atlantic or lend lease some to the British if the Japanese are behaving themselves (relatively)?.... The Americans did increase their ship building efforts and add more shifts after Pearl Harbor (I don't know how many less boats there would be but it must have some impact even if it is a modest one)

Japan is screwed regardless... there is no possible Rising Sun Victorious scenario against the United States that works... in their case delay is disasterous but with the Germans it is potentially mixed

That is the remarkable thing about the 1940 Two Navy Act. virtually all of the hulls that hit the water before 1945 were approved before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor (obviously, the Independence class CL were not on order, but the Cleveland hulls were ordered, with many already laid down). The total number of ships might be slightly lower, but the key is that the initial designs are out of almost all of the yards that built the ships during the war.

Just the ships that were launched/commissioned, almost all of which were either on the ways or simply waiting for the slipway to clear to benign construction constitute a force increase greater than the Japanese managed throughout the war.

The Japanese knew what the Two Ocean Navy Act meant. They also knew who it was aimed at, you don't need 10 carriers in the North Atlantic.


Even in the ETO, the German's waiting doesn't help. If they wait a year and a half ALL the tanks in the Red Army will be T-34s or KVs and Moscow will have managed to get some sort of order back into the officer corps. The Soviets will be flying mostly LAGG-3 & La-5 fighters and the Il-2 will be available in some numbers. The U.S. still has all the aircraft I mentioned earlier, and the B-29 is less than a year out. That is a real concern for the Reich. As bad as the damage from the B-17 & B-24 was, the B-29, with three-four times the bombload when flying from the UK to Berlin, and the range to hit the German oil supply from the day it reaches the theater as well as the later models of the P-38 & P-47 (and early models of the P-51 as well), the air war will be a LOT worse for the Reich.

 

[BlairWitch749]

That is the remarkable thing about the 1940 Two Navy Act. virtually all of the hulls that hit the water before 1945 were approved before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor (obviously, the Independence class CL were not on order, but the Cleveland hulls were ordered, with many already laid down). The total number of ships might be slightly lower, but the key is that the initial designs are out of almost all of the yards that built the ships during the war.

Just the ships that were launched/commissioned, almost all of which were either on the ways or simply waiting for the slipway to clear to benign construction constitute a force increase greater than the Japanese managed throughout the war.

The Japanese knew what the Two Ocean Navy Act meant. They also knew who it was aimed at, you don't need 10 carriers in the North Atlantic.


Even in the ETO, the German's waiting doesn't help. If they wait a year and a half ALL the tanks in the Red Army will be T-34s or KVs and Moscow will have managed to get some sort of order back into the officer corps. The Soviets will be flying mostly LAGG-3 & La-5 fighters and the Il-2 will be available in some numbers. The U.S. still has all the aircraft I mentioned earlier, and the B-29 is less than a year out. That is a real concern for the Reich. As bad as the damage from the B-17 & B-24 was, the B-29, with three-four times the bombload when flying from the UK to Berlin, and the range to hit the German oil supply from the day it reaches the theater as well as the later models of the P-38 & P-47 (and early models of the P-51 as well), the air war will be a LOT worse for the Reich.

I am impressed by the naval aspect you quoted... I make no bones... any Japanese victory scenario against the U.S. in the long haul is impossible

The German part I am more curious about though. I wonder if Stalin can really ramp up production so much without LendLease filling in the gaps in his economy. Having all the tank units be t-34 is only modestly helpful because they would be first generation t-34 without its major teething problems resolved (biggest one is having the gunner be the commander, but the radio's and optics had a lot of kinks to be worked out (not unlike the panther in '43) and would one assume the germans upgrade all their mark 4's to the long 75mm gun which can knock out a t-34 at 1200meters?

Also it took the red army three years of brutal all out war to get all the dead wood out of their officer corps despite their having a technical advantage (which they had in otl most of the time anyway) it doesn't change that their units were handled rather poorly for the first several years of the war until the best staffs emerged.

The aircraft thing doesn't change much either because the german's operated the me-109 and fw-190 from '42 and beyond against any and all aircraft the red airforce used and achieved HUGE kill ratio's (not because the Soviet aircraft were necessarily crappy but due to the immense experience and skill of the Luftwaffe pilots and the utter poor training and morale of the red air force)

 

[CalBear]

I am impressed by the naval aspect you quoted... I make no bones... any Japanese victory scenario against the U.S. in the long haul is impossible

The German part I am more curious about though. I wonder if Stalin can really ramp up production so much without LendLease filling in the gaps in his economy. Having all the tank units be t-34 is only modestly helpful because they would be first generation t-34 without its major teething problems resolved (biggest one is having the gunner be the commander, but the radio's and optics had a lot of kinks to be worked out (not unlike the panther in '43) and would one assume the germans upgrade all their mark 4's to the long 75mm gun which can knock out a t-34 at 1200meters?

Also it took the red army three years of brutal all out war to get all the dead wood out of their officer corps despite their having a technical advantage (which they had in otl most of the time anyway) it doesn't change that their units were handled rather poorly for the first several years of the war until the best staffs emerged.

The aircraft thing doesn't change much either because the german's operated the me-109 and fw-190 from '42 and beyond against any and all aircraft the red airforce used and achieved HUGE kill ratio's (not because the Soviet aircraft were necessarily crappy but due to the immense experience and skill of the Luftwaffe pilots and the utter poor training and morale of the red air force)

The Germans did have a serious advantage over the Soviet Air Force, but the pilots in La-5s will have a much better chance than the poor bastards they sent up in I-15s. The biggest difference will be the addtional Il-2.

 

[DuQuense]

Imagine the Japanese trying to hit Pearl with a dozen fully functional and calibrated air search radars and 100 P-38s as part of the fighter force. Imagine trying for the Philippines with 200 P-40K and 150 B-17E on the tarmacs with radar coverage of the entire Formosa Strait. (gee, somebody should do a T/L with that... Oh, ya... )

To bad it died prematurity.

 

[BlairWitch749]

The Germans did have a serious advantage over the Soviet Air Force, but the pilots in La-5s will have a much better chance than the poor bastards they sent up in I-15s. The biggest difference will be the addtional Il-2.

I guess so but starting with some of the more modern Panzer MK 4's the German's got into the nasty habit of putting pintol mounted machine guns on top of the turrets of their tanks... Hanx Bix shot down 4 aircraft from his panther tank plus you have to figure since their tanks would actually be able to knock out other tanks that they would devote their AA guns to AA defense instead of using them as improvised anti tank guns improving their efficency against air attack

I read the luftwaffe aces diary of Wilhem Batz (ledgendary for shooting down IL-2's) he was flying an ME-109 G and hit one with a load of 20mm rounds and was stunned when they bounced off. the only way he killed them (and he killed well over 150 of that particular kind was to attack from below and shoot the belly which would rupture the unarmored coolant tank)

 

[Paul MacQ]

North Africa might be an interesting Theatre.

Nothing like Operation Torch Happening. I am thinking the British Army will be getting allot of the Equipment it got OTL. I am thinking North Africa might see some more fighting longer than our TL. And probably Vichy France not being taken over in 1942 if French North Africa not invaded.

Italy might last a bit longer and was getting some better Equipment like the P40 Medium (Heavy) Tank and the heavier Long Barrel Armed Semovente M41 75/43 and the M43 Versions). The DB605 Engine Cannon armed Fighters getting into action (but limited numbers as Italian Industry is still in a Terrible state). Would be interesting how the Italians do with a Armour equipment equality Parity ( or close too it )with the British if not in quantity. Not war winning changes. But I gather you would get a Europe First as per OTL

Might see a few more Tigers yet there strength would be as a mighty Defensive weapon as there limited mobility with the Distances involved in North Africa. Would hate being in a Sherman with a 75 against those beasts in the Open Desert Plains instead of the Confined Hills of Tunisia. Also the Rage engagement advantage of Panzer VI that make up greater and greater numbers of the Germans Armour. Also probably see the use of Stugs with long 75s in Africa. Yet Russia will still be main Priority with Armour and Luftwaffe

When the US do finally get involved they will be inexperienced vs Veterans but there level of Equipment will be so much Stronger comparatively.
If Monty is in Command in this TL Probably still going to have similar happenings as OTL. But probably take longer, Italy is will be getting a hammering on its Merchant Fleet still supplying North Africa so I am thinking a Lost Cause. By the Time US gets involved.