Was sickle cut asb?

If Sickle cut remained purely hypothetical as just another war plan filed away would we consider it's implimented result to be asb, namely france being comprehensively defeated and the british driven off the continent in 6 weeks

at the start of the battle if you include the dutch and belgians, there was approximately 1 to 1 parity in men, 5 to 3 superiority for the allies in tanks 3 to 1 superiority for the allies in artillery pieces but 4 to 3 superiority for the axis in aircraft
 

abc123

Banned
Well, IMO Sicle cut was a brilliant plan, but it had a lot of luck required to suceed.
As it happened, they had that luck. If they didn't...
 

Riain

Banned
I don`t consider it ASB because the Germans were ahead of the curve in several hard to measure areas. For example their armoured divisions were the most balanced and were grouped together in corps and even an army. The Luftwaffe had gained considerable practical experience in Spain so were tactically superior to the Allies. As for the sickle cut itself, it`s a lot like the Schlieffen plan in that it tried to make big gains by advancing where the enemy was in great strength.
 
Not really. We'd rather consider it the prospect of sheer stupidity on the part of the Allies, a stupidity that would actually be rather feasible. Sickle-Slice IOTL worked by a very, very narrow margin, narrower than most OTL histories acknowledge. It is literally possible for France to reinforce that area by artillery alone and stop the German offensive without sending a single rifleman more.

IOTL 1940 was preceded by several factors:

1) The Allies wanted to prepare for a long war, not a short one. They were planning for an offensive in 1941. They quite rightly suspected the Germans were weaker, and the German *generals* weren't wanting to initiate anything before 1941 themselves. Thus the Allies were developing a plan offensively to counter the initial German plan of OTL.

2) That plan was precisely what the Allied 1940 action was designed to counter. It really would have done that had it not been for the TL-191 type incident where the plane fell with the actual German plan and the Germans, instead of adhering to the plan, decided to change it. Sickle-Slice unfolding as it did was not ASB, the incident of the plane in Belgium is the one thing about it all that would qualify for an ASB incident in some TLs. What *that* was was mere human error.

3) The German triumph of OTL again was an extremely narrow margin of success. The French had their least-prepared troops, a lower amount of artillery, and poor air support, and the Germans made it by a margin that suits perfectly for a tactical AH POD, as not at all battles do.

4) The ultimate decisive factor was the poor allocation of reserves by the Allies, and this is not ASB at all, it's just stupidity.
 
I don`t consider it ASB because the Germans were ahead of the curve in several hard to measure areas. For example their armoured divisions were the most balanced and were grouped together in corps and even an army. The Luftwaffe had gained considerable practical experience in Spain so were tactically superior to the Allies. As for the sickle cut itself, it`s a lot like the Schlieffen plan in that it tried to make big gains by advancing where the enemy was in great strength.

Um, no, the enemy was in very poor strength there. To have advanced where the enemy was in Great Strength would have been a replay of the Schlieffen Plan with WWII technology, which is actually what Herr Hitler's generals wanted to do. He quite reasonably decided that was a very bad idea. German technology and numbers were inferior to the Allies in 1940 just like in 1941. The German Blitzkrieg is an anachronistic myth that evolved through 1939 and 1940, and was only implemented as a full plan in Marita-Punishment and Barbarossa.

The Soviet Deep Operations, by contrast, did exist on paper before WWII but weren't properly implemented until 1943, so they weren't any different. The WAllies were not any better prepared for operational war in 1941-5 than they were in 1939-41, or in 1950, the USA in particular. Like so much else that qualifies in popular history, there are some ideas that simply didn't actually exist in real history.
 
Closest thing i can think of to compare it too would probably be the Gulf Wars. It would be a bit of a stretch to compared the allied forces to Iraq, and the analogy doesnt fit perfectly, but its a model of a supposedly strong force being absolutely crushed in rapid time. So an AH member in that world could probably compare the hypothetical Fall of France to the Gulf Wars to make the case its not ASB.
 
Closest thing i can think of to compare it too would probably be the Gulf Wars. It would be a bit of a stretch to compared the allied forces to Iraq, and the analogy doesnt fit perfectly, but its a model of a supposedly strong force being absolutely crushed in rapid time. So an AH member in that world could probably compare the hypothetical Fall of France to the Gulf Wars to make the case its not ASB.

Except that Iraq was never a strong force. The fighting around Basra in the Iran-Iraq War was a pretty graphic illustration of how much of a not-strong force it actually was. A good analogy pre-1940 to this would ironically enough be either the Austro-Prussian War or the Opium Wars.
 

Riain

Banned
Um, no, the enemy was in very poor strength there. To have advanced where the enemy was in Great Strength would have been a replay of the Schlieffen Plan with WWII technology, which is actually what Herr Hitler's generals wanted to do. He quite reasonably decided that was a very bad idea. German technology and numbers were inferior to the Allies in 1940 just like in 1941. The German Blitzkrieg is an anachronistic myth that evolved through 1939 and 1940, and was only implemented as a full plan in Marita-Punishment and Barbarossa.

The Soviet Deep Operations, by contrast, did exist on paper before WWII but weren't properly implemented until 1943, so they weren't any different. The WAllies were not any better prepared for operational war in 1941-5 than they were in 1939-41, or in 1950, the USA in particular. Like so much else that qualifies in popular history, there are some ideas that simply didn't actually exist in real history.

I left out the n`t, where the enemy wasN`T in great strength.
 
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