US Snaps up the Remainder of the Spanish Pacific Empire in 1898

[Father Maryland]

So the purpose of this thread is two part

1) Why didn't the US include the entirety of the Spanish possessions in the Pacific when they forced the Spanish to accept the annexation of Guam, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico. In OTL besides Guam and the Philippines the Spanish had possessed a large number of various islands in the Pacific with some being quite strategic. In OTL after the end of the Spanish American War the Spanish ended up selling the remainder of it's Pacific possessions to Germany. Germany would then lose them in WW1 and afterwards they would become a Japanese League of Nations Mandate ( Though the Japanese ignored the "temporary mandate" part). In OTL some of those islands would prove incredibly strategically valuable including some very fine harbors for naval vessels. In OTL during and before WW2 the IJN's main base outside of Japan was Truk Lagoon. It was their bastion in the Central Pacific (though the US did end up just bombing and bypassing it).
2) What would the effects be of the US buying all of those various islands and atolls at the same time as Guam and the Phillipines. I assume these various islands would be considered in the same category as Guam (IE permanent possessions).

 

[Driftless]

I wonder if the limited size of US forces in the region (anywhere for that matter...) played a role. Even Dewey's naval force in Manila had shot through a substantial portion of their ammunition and restock had to come all the way from the US.

Buying out the Spanish for the rest of the Marianas, Marshalls, Carolines, and Palau might have made some sense. Keep the Germans from having a set of potential blocking bases between Hawaii and the Philippines(which the Germans coveted). Of course, that never became a real problem, until the Japanese swooped up the German possesions in 1914.

Still, the US was creating a colonial infrastructure from scratch for the much larger Philippines and Puerto Rico, and something in between for Cuba. That too was part of Elihu Roots' remit as Secretary of War/ad hoc Colonial Viceroy of sorts. I'm only half kidding, but you almost needed to send old-time frontier marshall's like Wyatt Earp (He was still alive BTW) out there to keep order on those myriad islands.

 

[Analytical Engine]

I'm wondering if the US administers all of Micronesia as one unit ITTL.

 

[Driftless]

Preventing the Germans/Japanese from obtaining those Central Pacific islands wouldn't completely stop the Japanese in 1941, but it would prevent them from developing permanent bases and forward staging supplies for their conquest of the Central Pacific. That requires a fair amount of foresight in 1898-99. Still, I wonder how much second guessing by US Naval planners (Army too) occurred as they drew up the various Rainbow Plans in the 20's and 30's. The Pacific plans all focused on the Japanese, who now had a considerably better position for mischief.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Preventing the Germans/Japanese from obtaining those Central Pacific islands wouldn't completely stop the Japanese in 1941, but it would prevent them from developing permanent bases and forward staging supplies for their conquest of the Central Pacific. That requires a fair amount of foresight in 1898-99. Still, I wonder how much second guessing by US Naval planners (Army too) occurred as they drew up the various Rainbow Plans in the 20's and 30's. The Pacific plans all focused on the Japanese, who now had a considerably better position for mischief.

That’s if World War 1 and 2 even happens as we know it in the first place...

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Preventing the Germans/Japanese from obtaining those Central Pacific islands wouldn't completely stop the Japanese in 1941, but it would prevent them from developing permanent bases and forward staging supplies for their conquest of the Central Pacific. That requires a fair amount of foresight in 1898-99. Still, I wonder how much second guessing by US Naval planners (Army too) occurred as they drew up the various Rainbow Plans in the 20's and 30's. The Pacific plans all focused on the Japanese, who now had a considerably better position for mischief.

OTL they were just a day off from beating the British to German Samoa. Without spending time going after the other German Pacific Islands, perhaps they seize that here and swap it with the British or Americans for something. Increased tonnage in the Washington Naval Agreement perhaps? The Japanese might also beat the British to Nauru here.

The Germans had already purchased the Marshall islands before the Spanish-American War OTL, so Japan will still seize those here.

Otherwise, I expect a lot more IJN focus on beefing up the Bonin Islands, Volcano Islands, Minami-Tori-shima, and perhaps Okinotorishima.

 

[Driftless]

That’s if World War 1 and 2 even happens as we know it in the first place...

On that thought, if the Japanese don't take over German possessions in the Central Pacific, then they're largely going to be contained to the East China Sea, Korea, and Manchuria. I don't think there's much for islands with deepwater ports to the East of Japan for quite a distance. What does that sense of confinement do to their strategic planning?

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

2) What would the effects be of the US buying all of those various islands and atolls at the same time as Guam and the Phillipines. I assume these various islands would be considered in the same category as Guam (IE permanent possessions).

The Marianas (not just Guam), definitely become permanent possessions. The Caroline Islands also probably become a permanent possession, but they could become independent. The Philippines probably still become independent.

 

[Father Maryland]

The Marianas (not just Guam), definitely become permanent possessions. The Caroline Islands also probably become a permanent possession, but they could become independent. The Philippines probably still become independent.

I agree. The small islands are relatively easy to possess permanently. The Philippines still most likely becomes independence eventually. The US as always deeply divided over what exactly to do with the Philippines even when like half of the entire US Army was fighting the Philippine nationalists and the Moros. In some ways it's amazing the US held onto it as long as it did in OTL. There was always intense controversy and disagreement over what exactly the US should do with it. Becoming a state was almost definitely out as it would have meant giving US citizenship to millions of brown Catholics (and surprisingly less disliked then the Catholics Muslims). It wasn't suited for any sort of large scale colonization/settlement by Americans. And the cost of actually theoretically defending the archipelago was both too much (and adequately doing so was never ever going to pass in Congress). The US plan was more or less to strand like a third of the entire peacetime (for the time) US Army in the fortified Corregidor/Bataan area and just kind of hope the USN could fight it's way across the entire pacific and reinforce the territory with troops the US didn't have in peacetime. So basically spend a lot of money stationing a large chunk of the US Army (and part of the USN) in the Philippines and fortify Manila bay and Corregidor and Bataan but never ever spend the money necessary to actually adequately defend the territory.

Though theoretically with the US possessing the island chains that in OTL went to Germany and then Japan makes a large part of the naval plans of the US in terms of defending the Philippines easier.

So maybe we end up with Phillipino independence but the US getting some sort of permament base territory (like say Gitmo or the British in Cyprus.). Be interesting if the Phillipines end up going communist or something and the US base area's become fortified bastions like Gitmo in Cuba (or the Canal Zone in Panama) that continually pisses off the Philippines.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

So maybe we end up with Phillipino independence but the US getting some sort of permament base territory (like say Gitmo or the British in Cyprus.). Be interesting if the Phillipines end up going communist or something and the US base area's become fortified bastions like Gitmo in Cuba (or the Canal Zone in Panama) that continually pisses off the Philippines.

The US had Subic Bay until 1992.

U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Cavite City was also the center of the seat of the U.S. Naval Forces in the Philippines for a while.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

On that thought, if the Japanese don't take over German possessions in the Central Pacific, then they're largely going to be contained to the East China Sea, Korea, and Manchuria. I don't think there's much for islands with deepwater ports to the East of Japan for quite a distance. What does that sense of confinement do to their strategic planning?

The Japanese didn't even colonize Manchuria until 1931, and if those islands are American, we get a radically different Versailles and Washington naval treaty. Washington Naval treaty banned the US and UK from upgrading and fortifying their bases, however in this scenario, those bases would be American. Interwar planned was revolved around those Japanese bases, if those bases are American, Japan would be in a harder position. Japanese politics might even be different which would avert World War 2 as we know it.

 

[Driftless]

I agree. The small islands are relatively easy to possess permanently. The Philippines still most likely becomes independence eventually. The US as always deeply divided over what exactly to do with the Philippines even when like half of the entire US Army was fighting the Philippine nationalists and the Moros. In some ways it's amazing the US held onto it as long as it did in OTL. There was always intense controversy and disagreement over what exactly the US should do with it. Becoming a state was almost definitely out as it would have meant giving US citizenship to millions of brown Catholics (and surprisingly less disliked then the Catholics Muslims). It wasn't suited for any sort of large scale colonization/settlement by Americans. And the cost of actually theoretically defending the archipelago was both too much (and adequately doing so was never ever going to pass in Congress). The US plan was more or less to strand like a third of the entire peacetime (for the time) US Army in the fortified Corregidor/Bataan area and just kind of hope the USN could fight it's way across the entire pacific and reinforce the territory with troops the US didn't have in peacetime. So basically spend a lot of money stationing a large chunk of the US Army (and part of the USN) in the Philippines and fortify Manila bay and Corregidor and Bataan but never ever spend the money necessary to actually adequately defend the territory.

Though theoretically with the US possessing the island chains that in OTL went to Germany and then Japan makes a large part of the naval plans of the US in terms of defending the Philippines easier.

So maybe we end up with Phillipino independence but the US getting some sort of permament base territory (like say Gitmo or the British in Cyprus.). Be interesting if the Phillipines end up going communist or something and the US base area's become fortified bastions like Gitmo in Cuba (or the Canal Zone in Panama) that continually pisses off the Philippines.

FWIW, I'm currently reading "Guardians of Empire" by Brian McAllister Linn . It's basically a US Army history in the Pacific from 1902-1940. America's colonial power era for that region. It's a history very much told from the Army perspective.

The Navy, Dewey especially, loved Subic Bay as the main stronghold. With hills on three sides and islands near the mouth of the Bay, it was a large harbor, easily defended from the sea and safe from attack - by sea. The Army, who was charged with land defenses, absolutely hated the spot. Their concerns were:

1. Enemy land force(assuming that to be Japan from day-one), would attack from landward and once high ground was taken, Subic would be untenable (citing Port Arthur as recent comparison). In 1914 General Ligget lead a lengthy tactical field analysis that predicted the Japanese would land at Lingayen Gulf and come South as quickly as they could consolidate the landing. Lt George Marshall was Liggett's ADC for that trek. In 1941, the Japanese landed at Lingayen and came South as quickly as they could.
2. The 1902-1940 US Army couldn't successfully defend both Manila and Subic Bay.
3. The Army was a trifle put out to learn the Navy's plan was for the Army to defend the islands, while the Navy departed to gather strength.
4. If not Subic Bay for a primary naval base, then where? - the Army had no solid alternative choice and remained at loggerheads with the Navy.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

On that thought, if the Japanese don't take over German possessions in the Central Pacific, then they're largely going to be contained to the East China Sea, Korea, and Manchuria. I don't think there's much for islands with deepwater ports to the East of Japan for quite a distance. What does that sense of confinement do to their strategic planning?

The Germans already held Nauru and the Marshall Islands before the Spanish-American War, so the Japanese still would have a presence further away from the home islands.

The Japanese captured the islands that they did by October 1914. Australia captured Nauru in September. If the Japanese aren't busy in the Caroline Islands, Palau, and Mariana Islands they might be at the Australians to Nauru here, so Japan could end up with Nauru and the Marshall Islands. The trouble with these islands is that they don't work as well for the purpose of defending the home islands from the United States since the US has a bunch of other territory in between.

 

[Father Maryland]

The US had Subic Bay until 1992.

U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Cavite City was also the center of the seat of the U.S. Naval Forces in the Philippines for a while.

Yes but from what I understand Subic Bay wasn't ever held under similar conditions to Gitmo let alone the Canal Zone. The suggestion is that instead Subic ends up getting permanently leased to the US which combined with other factors eventually leads to a very hostile anti US government taking power leading to a modern Gitmo like situation.