US Neutrality in WWI
- Thread starter Aranfan
- Start date
Deleted member 9338
The Palmer Raids happened after the war, so they have no effect of your TL. Are you saying the US looks the other way to the sinking of American shipping?
Well, we did "look the other way" for 2 years after the Lusitania, so it does seem plausible that we'd have stayed out, even if this POD doesn't work.
If you add in a bit more unrest and involvement in Mexico, US may not have the capacity to also deal with something as distant as Europe.
Add in a bit more of the Pro-German community in the US, and the pressure is surely on.
On top of, add in more Japanese involvement and outwards looks in the Pacific (and in Mexico), and Japan will cause some worries in terms of being Britain's key ally in the East.
Suddenly, by deepening this conflict, you may find that US is reluctant to support Britain if it means Japanese dominance (thak you, Britain) in the Pacific.
The unrestricted submarine warfare can be played out as early as 1914/5 which will be before US is even ready to deal with this. It may force the hand of Britain (being starved out very early).
After all, it was a US-UK agreement, not US-France.
Comments on this?
Ivan
Add in a bit more of the Pro-German community in the US, and the pressure is surely on.
On top of, add in more Japanese involvement and outwards looks in the Pacific (and in Mexico), and Japan will cause some worries in terms of being Britain's key ally in the East.
Suddenly, by deepening this conflict, you may find that US is reluctant to support Britain if it means Japanese dominance (thak you, Britain) in the Pacific.
The unrestricted submarine warfare can be played out as early as 1914/5 which will be before US is even ready to deal with this. It may force the hand of Britain (being starved out very early).
After all, it was a US-UK agreement, not US-France.
Comments on this?
Ivan
POD: Bob LaFollette doesn't get sick and make a rather long, rambling, and somewhat insulting speech to the press corp in 1911. He enters into the race stronger, and is able to make peace with Roosevelt (TR: "For the last time, I am sorry about spilling that tea on your wife." LaFollette: "We'll deal with that later.") The combo of LaFollette and TR overcomes Taft at the Republican convention, and Robert Marion La Follette is the Republican candidate in 1912.
La Follette defeats Woodrow Wilson is a, not really that close election, and becomes President. As part of the peace accord between him and Roosevelt, he choosed Hiriam Johnson as his VP and agrees to nominate General Wood as his Secretary of War.
Much to TR's disgust, La Follette isn't the type to be cowed. A boxer in his own right, and someone who finds himself just as manly as the former president ("thank you, very much") he refuses to brown nose after the election is done.
Horrified by the outbreak of war in 1914, La Follette pushes for a series of Neutrality Acts; think those from the 1930s, if not a bit stronger. He only prosecutes companies which are giving loans to either Great Britain or Germany.
However, La Follette isn't really 'anti-war' so much as he is, anti-THAT war. He finds himself drawn into the Mexico mess on the side of the Republican. The US ends up victories, helping set up a strong Republic in its southern neighbor, but only after several years of fighting.
He wins reelection in 1916, but sees a Democratic landslide in 1920. To this day, the American people are split over his legacy, with some claiming him to be one of the greatest Presidents of the 20th century, and others bemoaning his election.
La Follette defeats Woodrow Wilson is a, not really that close election, and becomes President. As part of the peace accord between him and Roosevelt, he choosed Hiriam Johnson as his VP and agrees to nominate General Wood as his Secretary of War.
Much to TR's disgust, La Follette isn't the type to be cowed. A boxer in his own right, and someone who finds himself just as manly as the former president ("thank you, very much") he refuses to brown nose after the election is done.
Horrified by the outbreak of war in 1914, La Follette pushes for a series of Neutrality Acts; think those from the 1930s, if not a bit stronger. He only prosecutes companies which are giving loans to either Great Britain or Germany.
However, La Follette isn't really 'anti-war' so much as he is, anti-THAT war. He finds himself drawn into the Mexico mess on the side of the Republican. The US ends up victories, helping set up a strong Republic in its southern neighbor, but only after several years of fighting.
He wins reelection in 1916, but sees a Democratic landslide in 1920. To this day, the American people are split over his legacy, with some claiming him to be one of the greatest Presidents of the 20th century, and others bemoaning his election.
The Lusitania was a British ship, not American.
The interesting one is if Wilson (or Hughes, depending on the PoD) opts to convoy US merchantmen rather than arming them. If that happens, probably none are sunk in Feb/Mar. Ships in convoy are less likely to be spotted than ones travelling individually, and even if a convoy is seen, the u-boat may take one look at the escort vessels, and just keep moving in search of an unaccompanied target.
Of course there is still the Zimmermann Note, but with no sinkings of US ships, the British may hesitate to reveal it in case the Germans twig that we have broken their naval code. Even if still revealed, it may have less impact if no US ships are being sunk, and perhaps be something of a nine-days wonder.
There could be one important butterfly, if the success of US convoying leads Britain to adopt it earlier. But this is far from certain, as the RN (who were biased against convoy) may just assume some secret US/German deal for American ships to be left alone. Even OTL, iirc there were false rumours along those lines. In any case, convoying will be harder without the US Navy to assist.
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RamscoopRaider
Donor
Stalemate or Central Powers victory, without the US unsecured loans (not getting those without a DOW) the Allies run out of Dollars and have 20-25% less supplies beginning mid 1917, the blockade is a bit looser and the Germans eat a tiny bit better and the Allies have 1 million fewer troops in reserve when Michael or an equivalent comes a knocking
A stalemate happens and like the Iran/Iraq war or the War of 1812 both sides go home chasened, but without feeling they were royally screwed over.
The US entering WW1 led to a situation much like the first Punic war where one side isn't conquored, but they are royally screwed by the winner and because of that they spend years after the war wanting revenge leading to a second far more bloodly war a generation later.
The US entering WW1 led to a situation much like the first Punic war where one side isn't conquored, but they are royally screwed by the winner and because of that they spend years after the war wanting revenge leading to a second far more bloodly war a generation later.
BlondieBC
Banned
The result is a cold peace. Most likely scenario is a cease fire is declared, and the new frontiers are wherever the front lines were that day with a set DMZ of a mile or two. Korea is a good example. Then the diplomats would try to negotiate a permanent peace, which may or may not be agreed too. Germany has to give up a lot for her "place in the sun", and the British will have to give up a lot for a free Belgium. Likely no reparations of any real size, just some symbolic ones. And likely WW1, part 2 within 25 years. It could really be anything from a full CP win to the Entente win at a huge costs. Every country had domestic issues, so if the leaders refuse to make peace, the winners will be determined by whose population revolts first, France or Germany. A-H can still slide into civil war. Lots of options, depending on what you think the butterflies are.
A neutral USA takes a POD. What is the POD, and when?
Agreed on the Lusitania.
It was on the list of warships.
Germany claimed, probably correctly, that USA law at the time allow/required Wilson to prevent USA citizens from traveling on ships of countries at war. Simply Wilson keeping all USA citizens off these Entente passenger liners would do a lot to eliminate the anger of the Lusitania. And there are simple steps that would have fixed all USA citizens dying on passenger ships. Three USA flagged ships, each escorted by a USA warship, for Holland, UK, and Spain would have assured very, very low loss of USA life. IMO, the odds the British fire on a USA cruiser heading to Holland is very close to zero.
The biggest effect of convoys is no unrestricted submarine warfare. All Germany asked for is that if the British Blockade was allow to stand, they be also allowed to break the rules. A monthly convoy of 30 USA freighters to Holland will stop the unrestricted warfare. Only a couple of USA warships are needed to prevent problems. All Wilson really has to tell the British is that if you cause a problem, you are immediately banned from trading with the USA, and diplomatic relations will be broken. The British will immediately back down. Wilson had immense leverage, but did not know how to use it. Look at all the stuff agreed to for Italy, Romania. Or the terms offered to the Ottomans or Bulgarians. Wilson got his "14 points" for 22 Billion in spending and 4 million soldiers.
A neutral USA takes a POD. What is the POD, and when?
Agreed on the Lusitania.
It was on the list of warships.
Germany claimed, probably correctly, that USA law at the time allow/required Wilson to prevent USA citizens from traveling on ships of countries at war. Simply Wilson keeping all USA citizens off these Entente passenger liners would do a lot to eliminate the anger of the Lusitania. And there are simple steps that would have fixed all USA citizens dying on passenger ships. Three USA flagged ships, each escorted by a USA warship, for Holland, UK, and Spain would have assured very, very low loss of USA life. IMO, the odds the British fire on a USA cruiser heading to Holland is very close to zero.
The biggest effect of convoys is no unrestricted submarine warfare. All Germany asked for is that if the British Blockade was allow to stand, they be also allowed to break the rules. A monthly convoy of 30 USA freighters to Holland will stop the unrestricted warfare. Only a couple of USA warships are needed to prevent problems. All Wilson really has to tell the British is that if you cause a problem, you are immediately banned from trading with the USA, and diplomatic relations will be broken. The British will immediately back down. Wilson had immense leverage, but did not know how to use it. Look at all the stuff agreed to for Italy, Romania. Or the terms offered to the Ottomans or Bulgarians. Wilson got his "14 points" for 22 Billion in spending and 4 million soldiers.
Boy is my face red.
Lets go with the convoy idea, and the objection to the British blockade, the two together meaning that the German lobby has enough power to block entry on the Entente side.