Turtledove's 'Worldwar': Specific terms of the Peace of Cairo

[Ilúphatar]

I always found the end of the Worldwar tetrology (excluding Colonisation and Homeward Bound) rather disappointing in terms of detail - the most monumental conflict in human history against an alien invasion, and only a very vague idea of the terms of the Peace of Cairo and the (probably inaccurate) map in Colonisation to give us an idea of the post-war geopolitical situation.

I thought it might be interesting to speculate on and discuss the possible specifics of the peace agreement. There are various issues that seem ambiguous because of their circumstances, particularly the islands the Race seem to hardly understand, yet still seem to gain control of at the end (though their exact status is rarely mentioned).

The fate of territories such as Ceylon, Cyprus and Tasmania (all British Commonwealth); whether or not the Japanese are supposed to be ruling Indochina; and the situation in Madagascar (British, French or Race?) might be interesting to think about.

Though it was almost certainly not drawn by Turtledove, and is thus not to be trusted as absolutely true, here is the map from Colonisation:

 

[Dominic]

Given the haziness of details in Colonisation it's pretty reasonable to interpret anything not directly stated in a way that is just plausible and suits you, if you're going to be writing some fan fiction about it. IMO some of the particularly odd bits from the Colonisation map like, as you say, Indochina, Madagascar & other islands, and also the exact borders between the human powers are best taken as (unimportant) errors. For instance, the Colonisation map suggests that Japan was able to keep not just the large islands in the Western Pacific but also some actual American territory like Guam. Not physically impossible, but seemingly unlikely. Other odd bits are the idea of a "Free France" centred around French Polynesia and not NewCal, which actually has a significant French population.

On other details I'd suggest that islands like Tasmania that are totally isolated from the Human powers and are in areas the Race are really keen on with low populations almost certainly came under their control, while a bitterer pill to swallow like Ceylon probably remained human. Madagascar almost certainly did, as it's a fair distance from the mainland and the Race had increasing logistical issues as the war went on. The most curious bit IMO is the fate of East Prussia, 100% German territory but lying on the Soviet side of Poland. IIRC the books state that the Nazi's and Soviets did not want a land border, or something like that, but losing that sort of territory would be a major political blow and given that the Nazi's almost went back to war during Cairo and did do so during the 60's I find it hard to believe that East Prussia was not at least enormously compensated, though more likely it would actually remain a German exclave. Also, I found the idea of Italy being outright annexed and not given the treatment of Hungary or Romania deeply implausible.

 

[TR1]

For instance, the Colonisation map suggests that Japan was able to keep not just the large islands in the Western Pacific but also some actual American territory like Guam. Not physically impossible, but seemingly unlikely.

Actually, this is a rare instance where the mapmaker was paying attention to the text. Japan was able to keep Midway and a couple of other islands, and after Cairo, we learn that the US and Japan were not interested in banging heads in the Pacific. So Japan keeping Guam is more likely, anyway.

Other odd bits are the idea of a "Free France" centred around French Polynesia and not NewCal, which actually has a significant French population.

Turtledove's call, not the mapmaker's.

Also, I found the idea of Italy being outright annexed and not given the treatment of Hungary or Romania deeply implausible.

As previously stated, the map has problems. Italy is one of those problems: In Second Contact, Italy is specified as an independent, albeit a vassal of Germany. They even have an embassy in Little Rock. So the map is wrong.

 

[Accurateworldwar]

Why the fuck did the US capital end up in Little Rock, anyways?

 

[Ilúphatar]

islands like Tasmania that are totally isolated from the Human powers and are in areas the Race are really keen on with low populations almost certainly came under their control

I suppose that islands like Tasmania would be rather easy for the Race to seize simply due to the lack of large-scale resistance. An interesting alternative scenario might be if the Australian government had fled to Tasmania after the destruction of Sydney and Melbourne, and created a sort of 'Taiwan' situation. Turtledove loves his analogues, so I wouldn't be surprised if he at least considered that at some point.

Ceylon probably remained human

Unlike Tasmania, Ceylon had a large human population and a major British military base. It would make sense for the British to keep it, were it not for this line in the novel: "The fleetlord says in his generosity the truce applies to you in your island. It does not apply to any of the other lands of your empire across the seas from you and this island.". The line also throws into doubt the fate of places like Cyprus and indeed Madagascar, having been occupied by the British just as the Race arrived.

But, were we to take this statement literally, it would also imply that other British territories like Bermuda, the Falklands - why, even Northern Ireland! - were lost, which seems improbable. So for Ceylon, there are three realistic options - it was lost to the Race (only a native revolt could achieve that, in my view); it was retained by the British after the Peace of Cairo (at least for a while); or it was ceded to the Race at the Peace of Cairo.

The most curious bit IMO is the fate of East Prussia

Quite. I doubt that the Race would have captured and integrated East Prussia with Poland as the Colonisation map suggests, considering the factors you cite. I agree that its likely fate (had Turtledove himself created a map) would have been to remain a German territory.

the idea of Italy being outright annexed and not given the treatment of Hungary or Romania deeply implausible.

I agree with this also. As TR1 mentioned, there is some inconsistency here. I would guess that it was merely a satellite state and not annexed - though perhaps Germany took the opportunity to absorb South Tyrol or even all of Veneto.

Turtledove's call, not the mapmaker's.

Was the quote about the fate of the Free French in Worldwar or Colonisation? I can't recall having read it in the former.

 

[shiftygiant]

Why the fuck did the US capital end up in Little Rock, anyways?

Washington had been destroyed, and the other options were too badly damaged to operate a Government out of.

 

[Accurateworldwar]

Washington had been destroyed, and the other options were too badly damaged to operate a Government out of.

I would have figured Denver might be the new capital, seeing as it was basically the main point of resistance.

I wonder what would have happened to the nuked cities around the globe. Would some be rebuilt? Would they be left as memorials?

 

[shiftygiant]

I would have figured Denver might be the new capital, seeing as it was basically the main point of resistance.

I wonder what would have happened to the nuked cities around the globe. Would some be rebuilt? Would they be left as memorials?

The Race opened a front in Colorado, and the Battle of Denver is a major battle in the books. For obvious reasons you wouldn't put what was left of the US Government on the frontline, where the potential of destruction is high.

Basically Washington was never rebuilt and became one giant memorial. I think the Little Rock was a case of a temporary move that became permanent.

 

[Alexander Hamilton]

FDR's Southern White House was in Warm Springs, Georgia, not Hot Springs Arkansas.

 

[Accurateworldwar]

I think the Little Rock was a case of a temporary move that became permanent.

That'd make more sense than the government just deciding "Oh, Little Rock's a nice little town. Now it'll be our capital!"
I'd really have liked to see what Hitler's last years in power before he died looked like.

 

[TR1]

I agree with this also. As TR1 mentioned, there is some inconsistency here. I would guess that it was merely a satellite state and not annexed - though perhaps Germany took the opportunity to absorb South Tyrol or even all of Veneto.

It's explicitly a vassal state in Second Contact. Ignore the map on that one.

Was the quote about the fate of the Free French in Worldwar or Colonisation? I can't recall having read it in the former.

Rance Auerbach and Penny Summers are able to go to Tahiti in Down to Earth. Papeete, Tahiti is the capital of Free France.

 

[TR1]

Basically Washington was never rebuilt and became one giant memorial. I think the Little Rock was a case of a temporary move that became permanent.

DC wasn't explicitly a memorial. In Second Contact, we learn that there was constant talk about rebuilding Washington, DC, but no one wanted to spend the money. That does make it sound like Little Rock became permanent through intertia.

 

[Ilúphatar]

IIRC the books state that the Nazi's and Soviets did not want a land border,

I doubt the Soviets would be enormously concerned about any German army stationed in East Prussia, especially if it is cut of from the rest of Germany.

Talking of that, I wonder what happened to Danzig? It wasn't technically part of Poland so perhaps it stayed with Germany?

you wouldn't put what was left of the US Government on the frontline, where the potential of destruction is high.

No indeed. But the West Coast wasn't too badly hit, was it? Could Los Angeles or San Francisco become the new capital?

It's explicitly a vassal state in Second Contact.

Well, that certainly does make sense. It also proves that the map is not to be trusted.

Ignore the map on that one.

With pleasure!

Rance Auerbach and Penny Summers are able to go to Tahiti in Down to Earth.

Thanks.

 

[shiftygiant]

No indeed. But the West Coast wasn't too badly hit, was it? Could Los Angeles or San Francisco become the new capital?

It was, IIRC (the climate was suitable for the Race)- Los Angeles was cut off from the rest of America and hit with dummy bombs. I don't recall what happen to San Francisco, but considering the area it was likely non-viable.

 

[Ilúphatar]

It was, IIRC (the climate was suitable for the Race)- Los Angeles was cut off from the rest of America and hit with dummy bombs. I don't recall what happen to San Francisco, but considering the area it was likely non-viable.

I see. What about Seattle?

 

[shiftygiant]

I see. What about Seattle?

Destroyed along with VP Wallace by the Race in retaliation for the US using an Atom Bomb in Chicago.

 

[Ilúphatar]

Destroyed along with VP Wallace by the Race in retaliation for the US using an Atom Bomb in Chicago.

Ah, yes. I blame the fact I lack Upsetting the Balance in my set

 

[Pkmatrix]

Why the fuck did the US capital end up in Little Rock, anyways?

It's explained at the very end of Striking the Balance (it may have actually been the very last chapter, I don't have my copy on hand to check), but to be honest I don't remember the reason anymore. I thought it was something about Little Rock being Hull's hometown, but a quick Google search shows that's not true at all. It's been about a decade since I read it, the memory fades.

 

[Faeelin]

Why couldn't the race seize Ceylon? It's far from Britain, has no heavy weapons...

 

[Dominic]

Actually, this is a rare instance where the mapmaker was paying attention to the text. Japan was able to keep Midway and a couple of other islands, and after Cairo, we learn that the US and Japan were not interested in banging heads in the Pacific. So Japan keeping Guam is more likely, anyway.

For sure, to be clear I was also questioning some of Turtledove's choices but it's certainly a different category to bad map making. I do find it implausible though.

Turtledove's call, not the mapmaker's.

Ditto on this one, considerably more implausible given the rather enormous disparity between NewCal and FP.

As previously stated, the map has problems. Italy is one of those problems: In Second Contact, Italy is specified as an independent, albeit a vassal of Germany. They even have an embassy in Little Rock. So the map is wrong.

This one I had forgotten, been 7-8 years since last I read these books. Makes sense then.

I suppose that islands like Tasmania would be rather easy for the Race to seize simply due to the lack of large-scale resistance. An interesting alternative scenario might be if the Australian government had fled to Tasmania after the destruction of Sydney and Melbourne, and created a sort of 'Taiwan' situation. Turtledove loves his analogues, so I wouldn't be surprised if he at least considered that at some point.

NZ would play this role quite well. Given the Race policies in Australia towards humans it's quite likely that a very large number of Australians would emigrate to NZ after the war, considerably boosting its population and economy. In the long run this is a bit of a NZ wank, as the rest of the South Pacific has no where to turn to other than Japan, which is unlikely for a variety of reasons including how they treat people further west in Melanesia.