Link
I argue that the evidence suggest that the events of 1241- 1242 could easily have coursed down a different path.
A Mongol detachment was actually seen at Udine in Italy, eighty kilometers from Venice, during the invasion. The purpose for their expedition into Italy is not certain, but this detachment is thought to have been part of Kadan’s army which had pursued Bela to the Adriatic coast. As such, the Mongols had found a fairly accessible route by which to enter Italy from the east. This force quickly disappeared. Yet what if it had conducted a more thorough reconnaissance or raid into Italy? What if Kadan, having failed to capture Bela, decided to follow this detachment in order to test Italy’s defenses? Had a Mongol force approached the walls of Rome or another significant city, they likely would not have succeeded in their assaults. However, as Paul E. Chevedden mentions, counterweighted trebuchets existed in Italy at the time. Emperor Frederick II sent some of these machines from Italy to the Levant in 1242. If this Mongol detachment had rapidly advanced through Italy, they might well have chanced across a poorly protected settlement or even a detachment of troops with a counterweighted trebuchet in their possession. If they managed to capture one of these weapons, and recognized its utility, they could have returned to Batu’s main army with it in their possession.
The atomistic resistance which was troubling Batu would not have immediately ceased and in all likelihood the withdrawal [from Hungary IOTL following Ogedei's death] would have proceeded as it did. However, Rogerius mentions that the artillery specialists in the Mongol army did not simply operate siege engines. They built them from scratch out of local materials. Before besieging Esztergom, for instance, they had stopped nearby and built thirty machines. If these artillery specialists had left Europe with even a single counterweighted trebuchet in their possession, there is no reason to believe they could not have used it as a template for their future constructions. In their continued suppression of the Alans and Saxi, mentioned by Carpini, they would have realized that they now had a huge technological advantage which they did not possess during the first invasion. This likely would have encouraged Batu to attempt a second invasion in the following years, seeing as the counterweighted trebuchet offered him a better chance of reducing the individual fortifications and parity with the best artillery in Europe. We know that the Mamluks were able to reduce the Crusader strongholds of the Holy Land quite rapidly after these weapons appeared in their arsenal. They were also decisive against the Song at Xiangyang and Fancheng.
A renewed invasion of Hungary with counterweighted trebuchets could have broken the will of both Bela and his people to resist. In 1250, Bela specifically warned the pope that in the case of a renewed invasion, he was uncertain that his people would have the desire to continue their resistance. More ominously, he suggested that if he did not receive real support from the Latin West, then he wished to apologize beforehand that he “would see it necessary to come to an agreement with the Tartars.” Thus, it is not implausible to imagine that if the Mongols returned to Hungary before he could launch his castle building program, armed with the very artillery that the Latin West should have used for the defense of his kingdom, Bela might have offered his submission. Isolated and betrayed, he would have felt that it was the only opportunity for the survival of Hungary, and Batu, recognizing that he was in need of local support to conquer Europe, would have welcomed the gesture. Upon meeting, the Mongol chieftain would probably have offered Bela a cup of kumis, as he did when Danilo of Galicia came to offer his submission. He would likely have uttered the same haunting words: “Get used to this drink. You are a Mongol now.”
In the scenario that Batu had a reliable base in Hungary, its entire population producing the foodstuffs and weaponry for a prolonged war, Europe’s long-term prospects for survival would have been bleak. Bela would have set a dangerous precedent by showing that European monarchs could be made to turn their back on Christendom. His crossbowmen and heavily armoured knights would enhance the capability of the Mongol army to conduct a European war. Moreover, the real knowledge of Europe’s geography and political structure that Bela could provide would be decisive. I do not know if the Mongols would have conquered all of Europe, but without doubt the struggle would not be passed over in a few paragraphs in any monograph on the history of Europe. The name of Batu would have seared itself into the collective consciousness of the West like another Attila the Hun.
Thoughts?A Mongol detachment was actually seen at Udine in Italy, eighty kilometers from Venice, during the invasion. The purpose for their expedition into Italy is not certain, but this detachment is thought to have been part of Kadan’s army which had pursued Bela to the Adriatic coast. As such, the Mongols had found a fairly accessible route by which to enter Italy from the east. This force quickly disappeared. Yet what if it had conducted a more thorough reconnaissance or raid into Italy? What if Kadan, having failed to capture Bela, decided to follow this detachment in order to test Italy’s defenses? Had a Mongol force approached the walls of Rome or another significant city, they likely would not have succeeded in their assaults. However, as Paul E. Chevedden mentions, counterweighted trebuchets existed in Italy at the time. Emperor Frederick II sent some of these machines from Italy to the Levant in 1242. If this Mongol detachment had rapidly advanced through Italy, they might well have chanced across a poorly protected settlement or even a detachment of troops with a counterweighted trebuchet in their possession. If they managed to capture one of these weapons, and recognized its utility, they could have returned to Batu’s main army with it in their possession.
The atomistic resistance which was troubling Batu would not have immediately ceased and in all likelihood the withdrawal [from Hungary IOTL following Ogedei's death] would have proceeded as it did. However, Rogerius mentions that the artillery specialists in the Mongol army did not simply operate siege engines. They built them from scratch out of local materials. Before besieging Esztergom, for instance, they had stopped nearby and built thirty machines. If these artillery specialists had left Europe with even a single counterweighted trebuchet in their possession, there is no reason to believe they could not have used it as a template for their future constructions. In their continued suppression of the Alans and Saxi, mentioned by Carpini, they would have realized that they now had a huge technological advantage which they did not possess during the first invasion. This likely would have encouraged Batu to attempt a second invasion in the following years, seeing as the counterweighted trebuchet offered him a better chance of reducing the individual fortifications and parity with the best artillery in Europe. We know that the Mamluks were able to reduce the Crusader strongholds of the Holy Land quite rapidly after these weapons appeared in their arsenal. They were also decisive against the Song at Xiangyang and Fancheng.
A renewed invasion of Hungary with counterweighted trebuchets could have broken the will of both Bela and his people to resist. In 1250, Bela specifically warned the pope that in the case of a renewed invasion, he was uncertain that his people would have the desire to continue their resistance. More ominously, he suggested that if he did not receive real support from the Latin West, then he wished to apologize beforehand that he “would see it necessary to come to an agreement with the Tartars.” Thus, it is not implausible to imagine that if the Mongols returned to Hungary before he could launch his castle building program, armed with the very artillery that the Latin West should have used for the defense of his kingdom, Bela might have offered his submission. Isolated and betrayed, he would have felt that it was the only opportunity for the survival of Hungary, and Batu, recognizing that he was in need of local support to conquer Europe, would have welcomed the gesture. Upon meeting, the Mongol chieftain would probably have offered Bela a cup of kumis, as he did when Danilo of Galicia came to offer his submission. He would likely have uttered the same haunting words: “Get used to this drink. You are a Mongol now.”
In the scenario that Batu had a reliable base in Hungary, its entire population producing the foodstuffs and weaponry for a prolonged war, Europe’s long-term prospects for survival would have been bleak. Bela would have set a dangerous precedent by showing that European monarchs could be made to turn their back on Christendom. His crossbowmen and heavily armoured knights would enhance the capability of the Mongol army to conduct a European war. Moreover, the real knowledge of Europe’s geography and political structure that Bela could provide would be decisive. I do not know if the Mongols would have conquered all of Europe, but without doubt the struggle would not be passed over in a few paragraphs in any monograph on the history of Europe. The name of Batu would have seared itself into the collective consciousness of the West like another Attila the Hun.
