On the 27th the first Republican debate of the primary season was held at Dartmouth University a day before the Primary. The three attendants were President George H. W. Bush, Virginia Reverent Pat Robertson and New York representative Jack Kemp.
As with the democrats each candidate had a valid reason for needing a win. The President needed to perform well, polls in New Hampshire had been closing between him and Kemp, he was the sitting President, the longer the Primary period was drawn out the weaker he would look as a President. Pat Robertson needed to show he was not only the successor to the Reagan Revolution, and he needed to prove that his ideas of religious conservatism were present in the American ideal. He was sure they were, however New Hampshire was not the place to prove it, he was seen as an outsider to the moderates, but he hoped he could at least poll second to Bush. Kemp, much like Robertson, needed to show he was the second choice to Bush, he also needed to prove he was the successor to the Reagan Revolution, not this band wagon jumping hack.
And so they all met on that cold February evening and debated the finer points of their politics and policy.
From the outset it was clear that Bush was willfully unprepared, both Robertson and Kemp had come prepared with attack lines to deliver to the President. Both men attacked Bush for his "voodoo economics claim"
How can a man claim to be in favour of an economic system, that he called not four years ago, quote "voodoo"", argued Kemp.
"That was before I fully understood supply-side economics, but since then I have fully embraced the prospect and the ideal as the right path for America, and I have used my short time in office to push for that," came Bush's retort. He and his campaign ha been working on that pitch, Rollins was sure it would kill the Voodoo claim dead to rights. But then Kemp came back.
"With respect Mr President, how can the American people trust a willful flip flopper," there were ooh's and aah's from the audience. "How do we know that you won't flip flop back to opposition for it?"
"I think the American people are very clear of my record," Bush hoped that would put an end to it. He wasn't a flip-flopper, he had had valid concerns about Reagan's economic plan but after four years he became sure that it was the way to go.
But then Kemp revealed his ace. "Are they, we already have clear evidence of your flip-flopping. You gutted Reagan's criminal reform bill, cowed down to the liberal Democrats in the House, in order to get your Vice President elected."
As Bush tried to speak the crowd booed him, for the President the debate was over he had lost, but he still had 60 minutes to go. Ed Rollins threw his shoe at the TV he was watching, shouting and raving at anyone who would listen. Head speechwriter Peggy Noonan was calmer, stating to her assistant that Bush needed a lot of work.
The debate continued.
Robertson attacked the President for not being a true believer in god, following his bowing down to "
demon-crats" on criminal reform. "They are gonna put drugs in the hands of your children, and this president has done nothing to stop it."
The entire debate was a bully-Bush moment, the only time Kemp and Robertson went after each other was when Robertson criticised both candidates for not quoting the Bible enough.
"Reverent, God does not run this country," Kemp said.
"No, but he runs the hearts of it's people," Robertson retorted. This earned the biggest applaud of the night.
At the end of the night everyone was agreed that Bush had blown it, most agreed that Kemp had come out on top and that Robertson might place a close second.
The next day voting began, at the midnight voting in the small communities in northern New Hampshire showed Bush ahead, Kemp in a close second and Robertson on a far third. As voting was cast Robertson left the state, making his way to Wyoming, stating he "hoped to get a head of the compition, no reason to stay the campaign's been done." Most pundits saw this as an admission of defeat.
By 11 o'clock the results became clear.
Jack Kemp 93'747 48.8% 11
George H W Bush 74'537 38.8% 8
Pat Robertson 23'821 12.4% 2
Kemp nearly won fifty percent of the state, this cemented in everyone's mind that the Republican primaries would run on for longer than expected. Most pundits still believed that Bush would still prevail, and he did, later that week at the Maine Caucus Bush won.
George H W Bush 10'525 53.6 20
Jack Kemp 7'894 40.2
Pat Robertson 1'217 6.2%
Uncommitted 8’068 4.2
Bush's 50% of the win resulted in him winning all 20 delegates. However his victory solely in the urban south, Kemp's victory in the conservative middle, and Robertson's rural religious north, Maine was used as a clear example of the rest of the primaries. Many conservative pundits saw this as a sign of Bush's weakness among the Republican base. Bush was boosted by his victory in his second state, but still felt he should be doing better, he decided to go full throttle into the campaigning for Super Tuesday, he and Ed Rollins wanted to win a majority in every region: the west, the south, the north east, and the mid-west. On the tenth the results on the Wyoming Caucus came out, they were not good news for Bush.
Pat Robertson 13
Jack Kemp 2
George H W Bush 1
Uncommitted 1
The news was unwelcome. Evangelists, who had given Bush a win in Iowa over Robertson, had become turncoats. Wyoming Representative Dick Cheney called out the President after this: "If our President can not win the three groups within our party, how can he hope to win an election." The point was well made, Rollins still yelled about it though, as he was prone too.
Wyoming was a bitter blow to the President, he had come third, and held the same delegate total as Uncommitted. But if anything this was the fire underneath him and his campaign, Bush through himself straight into the campaign, running adds in Super Tuesday states and visiting each of them in turn, standing on stage with his family. His campaign was worried though, since his loss in New Hampshire a lot of donors were becoming tight lipped, they weren't funneling their cash towards Kemp's operation, but they were reviewing their options. Members of the campaign brought the concerns to Rollins himself that if Bush continued with the Ads and campaign stops their wouldn't be any money for the General. Rollins calmed them, stating that: "We need to spend money to make money, if we can win on ST then the donors will flow more cash to us, even those who are funneling Kemp's and Robertson campaign's might have to think again. But we need to make up the deficit first, so relax we will have the money for the campaign."
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1988 Republican Primary as of March 11
Current State Count
Bush: 2
Kemp: 1
Robertson: 1
Current Delegate Count
Bush: 49 (2.2%)
Robertson: 31 (1.4%)
Kemp: 13 (0.6%)
Current Popular Vote Count
Bush: 141'156
Kemp: 101'641
Robertson: 70'757
