The Greater Korean Republic: A Timeline

This is not a TL based on Homefront, just a happy little Koreawank.


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1984: Kim Il-Sung Dies.

1985: His son and successor Kim Jong-Il, being more liberal when he was younger, reforms the North Korean economy to a moderate extent, taking form as a 'Four Year Plan' to provide a foundation for future modernization.

1989: The Tiananmen Square Massacre (known as the June 4th Incident in China) sparks world-wide condemnation of the People's Republic of China. Kim, who was displeased with a meeting with the Chinese earlier that year, puts effort into easing relations with South Korea and the United States, separating itself from the PRC. This marks the beginning of the 'Sino-Korean Split'.

1991: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korean economic advisors convince the progressive Kim to further reform the economy, specifically to take a more open and capitalistic approach. This includes a massive economic deal with the South. Not only does he reform the constitution by dropping all mentions of Communism and isolationism, he stresses a pan-Korean identity with the South in a media blitz meant to boost North Korean prestige.

1998: A brief state visit by Bill Clinton during his tour of East Asia marks a gradual return to normalcy of North Korean relations and the West.

2003: North Korea's nuclear program makes progress with consent from the United Nations, albeit with protests from Japan and America. South Korean opinions about their neighbor are mixed. The large amount of progress is partly in thanks to the rapidly growing North Korean economy.

2006: In the third quarter of the year, China's economy overheats. The value of the RMB plummets, GDP growth freezes at an extremely low 4%, and tens of millions of jobs are lost in that quarter alone. Outside observers suspect that an imbalance occurred as a result of North Korean's growing economic clout, although much of it is pure guesswork.

2007: North Korean growth goes relatively unhampered, reporting a massive 9% growth by the end of the year. In South Korea, Kim Jong-Il is now regarded as the 'Northern Uncle' after the North successfully attempts to stress greater ties with the South.

2008: The Beijing Olympics in 2008 are called off when a massive uprising in China occurs. This is mostly due to the dissatisfaction of much of the Chinese with the ruling CCP's handling of the economic situation. In September, several major banking corporations declare bankruptcy in the US, cumulating in a steep worldwide recession.

2009: In January, The local governments of Tibet and Xinjiang declare full autonomy as the world sees mass anarchy take the streets of Shanghai, Guangdong and Beijing. Although both regions are forced back through military means, it only has a temporary effect due to the weakened central government. Independence movements within China are more than within the realm of possibility now.

2010: No official growth results come from China in 2008-2009, and when the International Monetary Fund officially puts China at the 17th largest economy in the world, any remaining foreign investment pulls out, making way for a growing North Korean influence in north-eastern China.

2011: North Korea is reportedly the 10th largest economy in the world at this point. Although the US and Japan are still mistrustful of the North, South Korean opinion is generally warm towards the North.

2012: Due to the economic collapse of China in 2006 and a massive recession in 2008, the American economy is dropping at catastrophic -4.8%. Unemployment in 2012 spikes at 18%, and the ISAF prematurely withdraws from Afghanistan by the end of the year, leaving a weak and corrupt Afghan government. President Barack Obama (D), loses his re-election campaign to Congressman Ron Paul (R) in November. Paul is a modern isolationist, prioritizing domestic issues over international problems.

2013: Kim Jong-Il’s health, which has been suffering for the past five years, suffers a stroke in April. He survives, and makes a speech addressing the people in July, admitting that he will not be around in the near future. In December, the North proposes a plan previously thought to be impossible without war: reunification with South Korea. Starting with small steps, it is meant to integrate the economies and governments of the two countries under a South Korean-style system over the course of ten years, with each Korea being its own administrative state until both Koreas can seamlessly merge in the distant future. Sparking worldwide debate, the UN ultimately concludes that it is up to the South Koreans to decide. On the eve of February 23rd, 2014, the proposal passes at 54%, leading the Treaty of Seoul.

2014: Though the Korean War was never officially ended, many see this year as the true end of conflict on the Korean peninsula. Smoother than the unification of East and West Germany, the Korean unification process is projected to produce the world’s 4th largest economy by 2020. In China, Xinjiang and Tibet attempt to break off again. With the Chinese government despairingly weak, the secessions are successful and many Western nations recognize the two new Asian countries. Other provinces follow suit in a more subtle manner, particularly in north-east China. Voices calling for provincial autonomy are heard in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Guangdong. Once again in less than a hundred years, China is fractured.

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2015: Something unexpected happens. Indeed, it is unexpected for the outside world but in North Korea, it is a plot that was being planned for a decade. Senior North Korean generals and ministers, unhappy with the ever increasingly-liberal Kim Jong-Il, wait for his death to seize power. His successor, Kim Jong-Chul, is assassinated along with the rest of the family as the coup d’état occurs a day before the succession ceremony. In the midst of the confusion, a quick and suppressed war occurs between North Korea and the remaining South Korean military units, which were reduced to nothing more than a paramilitary after the Treaty of Seoul (all American units and warships under the treaty left the year before, with approval by President Paul).

2016: By late January, the Greater Korean Republic is not under the proposed South Korean-style government, but under a strict military rule that returns to the policy of juche. Yet, this is not the same type juche as before; it is not a policy that a poor country uses to isolate itself from the world, but a policy used by a country abundant with natural resources, possessing over five hundred nuclear warheads and dozens of missiles capable of launching them. This policy of juche is by far more frightening than before.

2017: The United States by this year has little assets in the Pacific (Okinawa was returned to the Japanese in 2014). The US economy is still sputtering along; even with Ron Paul's attempts to focus on domestic problems (he loses his 2016 re-election). Improved technologies for the military have been put on hold, such as a greater number of F-22s and F-35s. The United States Navy is now stagnant with the Ford-class of aircraft carriers being put on hold and the LCS program completely canceled. The GKR, now with former South Korean industries at their hand, are reportedly mass-producing a finalized 5th-generation stealth fighter (taken from incomplete Chinese plans in the previous decade), along with at least one nuclear carrier group. The USN is unable to unilaterally project power by this point.

2018: The Japanese Diet makes a landmark decision to null the Japanese constitution's stance on war, allowing a nuclear program and a blue-water carrier fleet. On October 21st, the Greater Korean Navy engages the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force in the Sea of Japan. The Greater Korean Republic, citing increasingly hostile Japanese policies towards Korea and an increase in militarism (which is mostly untrue, as much of the re-armament of Japan's military is seen as taboo even within Japan), declares war on the country on November 1st. Although the Japanese military outguns the GKR in the first few weeks of the war (the Japanese navy being twice the size of their Korean counterparts), Korean High Command decides to use Korea's nuclear arsenal in early December, known as 'Black December' in Japan from that point on. Tokyo, Nagoya, Sendai and Aomori are hit by Korean MRBMs over the course of two weeks. On Christmas Eve, 9:30 PM local Korean time, Japan unconditionally surrenders to the Greater Korean Republic.

2019: A second financial meltdown hits the US, as unemployment skyrockets to 23%. Major American technology firms such as Apple and Google declare bankruptcy. China's north-eastern provinces are virtually Korean colonies now in all but name and recognition. Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan and the SARs (Macau and Hong Kong) begin to fall under the Korean sphere of influence. Several puppet states are created in the conquered Japan so as to keep the population suppressed. Everything west of Osaka is directly annexed by the GKR, with the populace undergoing a harsh Koreanization program for the next several decades. By now, the USN has been effectively reduced to a brown water fleet, containing only 5 aircraft carriers and 150 ships in total.

2021: Following the dissolution of the Eurozone and the European Union as a result of massive debt imbalances over the past twelve years, NATO begins to fall apart (many rifts were formed already following the withdrawal from Afghanistan). The only close allies the United States can readily call on are Canada and the United Kingdom.

2022: The PRC is officially removed from the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member. India, the world’s 3rd largest economy, takes its place.

2023: The Republic of China (Taiwan) sends warships to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, attempting to formalize claims on the island chain. As the Korean government never made cemented claims on it after the Japanese surrender, it is seen as a safe move given the relative uselessness of the islands to the GKR.
To the Taiwanese government’s surprise, a group of Korean warships are sent to engage the ships. No ships are sunk, but several Taiwanese ships are heavily damaged by Korean torpedoes. In an attempt to avoid further conflict, Taiwan appeals to the Korean government to find a peaceful solution. There is no diplomatic response. On November 3rd, a Korean aircraft carrier is sent to the islands. Taiwanese calls on the US to assist them only result in diplomatic condemnations towards the GKR, nothing more.
On November 7th, 2023, the Taiwanese air force (ROCAF) intercepts large formations of Korean fighters head towards Taipei, engaging them in the largest dogfight over the Pacific Ocean since the Second World War, also marking the start of the Sino (Taiwanese)-Korean War.

2024: The Sino-Korean War marks the first appearance of a heavily developed Korean military after five years since the 2018 Japano-Korean War. By now, the Greater Korean Armed Forces possess:

+ Greater Korean Navy (GKN): 121 warships
--- 3 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers
--- 622 aircraft
+ Greater Korean Air Force (GKAF): 1,250 aircraft (of which 312 are 5th generation fighters)
+ Greater Korean Space Corps (GKSC): 7+ military satellites
--- 2+ ICBMs
--- 100+ MRBMs
+ Greater Korean Army (GKA): 2,100,000 active personnel
--- 10,000+ special forces personnel
+ Greater Korean Marine Corps (GKMC): 151,000 active personnel

As shown, the Korean military is loosely shaped after the United States/Western armed forces, shifting away from its old Soviet/Chinese-inspired military organization. Although the Korean naval forces lack the logistical capability to carry out any mass landings on Taiwanese soil at first, the Taiwanese begin to find it highly difficult to defend against a technologically equal and numerically superior maritime force. A desperate Taiwanese military calls on the US to act on the decades-old agreement to ensure the protection of Taiwan. The US refuses, stating that the agreement only applied to an attack by the PRC, which is technically correct. After seven months at war in the air and sea, the Taiwanese navy and air force is virtually shattered. On May 18th, several division-sized Korean marine units land at Danshuei, twenty miles from the center of Taipei. Within four weeks, the city is in Korean hands. Although the ROC Army is still capable of fighting (indeed, it would be logistically impossible for the Koreans to push into the mountainous terrain of Taiwan), the Taiwanese overestimate the Korean invasion force, failing to realize that the force occupying Taipei would quickly collapse in the face of a massive counter-attack. Using the threat of nuclear annihilation to hold the wary Taiwanese back, the GKR demands an unconditional surrender of Taiwan.

2026: After the collapse of the Pakistani government, India, with the backing of the UN (which means very little by now), initiates a rapid invasion of the former country, using nuclear weapons on a tactical level to quickly decimate the remaining Pakistani military within three weeks. Although a few Indian cities are hit by medium-sized nuclear weapons in a desperate attempt to retaliate, all of Pakistan is under Indian occupation by the end of the year.

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2027: The United States of America at this point is no longer considered a first-world country, with some observers comparing it to the catastrophic state of the Russian Federation in the early 1990s (Russia, during the past few decades, has underwent ups and downs in its political power, although it now holds a strong influence over Belarus, Ukraine and several Caucasian states). With unemployment is stuck at 24%, the American economy to be soon overtaken by India. The Korean economy is still striving, and a new economic initiative is carried out: the founding of the Pacific Union. Although at first it is simply an economic and military unification of the GKR and its subject states (the remnant Japanese states, several eastern Chinese provinces and the protectorate of Taiwan), the union invites a number of South-East Asian countries hit by major economic downfalls to join a ‘prosperous alliance’ with Korea. Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia turn it down, but the cash-strapped Philippines agree to consider it. They are the first voluntary member of the Pacific Union.

2028: The Pacific Union (or the ‘Korean Union’ as outsiders refer to it) is a comprehensive integration of several economies and armed forces. There is one common currency (the Won), one main language (Korean, with each other language being taught as ‘local dialects’), and the union aims to build a ‘Pacific Armed Forces’ by 2033. The structure of the Pacific military has elements that coincidentally mirror the Nazi German SS in the Second World War: Korean citizens from Korea itself are conscripted, whilst personnel from Taiwan, Japan and various Chinese provinces are purely volunteers. Koreanization programs in each of these locations work surprisingly well (the Philippines are not subject to these programs, but still has its military trained, equipped and assimilated into the Korean armed forces). With the GKR already being the 3rd largest economy in the world (India and America are respectively 1st and 2nd), the Paczone will be the largest economic organization in the world.

2031: With Singapore joining the Paczone, Korean dominance seems to stand unchallengeable in East Asia.
 
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How come the UN and South Korea tolerate NK's nuclear program? Even with warmer diplomatic relationship, that'll only make Kim Jong Il looks evil to the world again.

What happened to Russia (after the ups and downs) and EU?
 
Shouldn't this be in ASB?

I considered putting it there, but in the end, there's nothing here that's really magical or 100% impossible. The timeline follows the near-implausible extremities of many scenarios, but that doesn't result in it being ASB.


How come the UN and South Korea tolerate NK's nuclear program? Even with warmer diplomatic relationship, that'll only make Kim Jong Il looks evil to the world again.

What happened to Russia (after the ups and downs) and EU?

The UN tolerates the peaceful research and use of nuclear energy, as long as there is a high level of transparency. Although it seems unlikely in OTL, years and years of subtle propaganda does wonders for a country's image.

As for Russia, it should be noted that Korea's not the only country getting wanked here...

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An updated map of India, Afghanistan and the former Pakistani states c.2031:

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That means India annex Pakistan? Without nuclear war?

What happens to the Middle East? Another Saudi-Iran War?
 
Interested but I want to know what's happening in other parts of the world. How has Australia reacted to this? Has the European Union truly broken apart? Is Britain isolationist because of the unstable European Countries?
 
There was a limited nuclear war between Pakistan and India.


To review how we got here, the TL has three main reasons for Korea's rise:

1) The unification of the Korean peninsula under the control of the North.
2) The virtual collapse of Chinese power and influence
3) The lack of a power (formerly the United States) that can effectively curb Korea's expansion and enforce international law*

*Russia and India can do so if they wished, but they're relations with Korea are cordial enough to not pursue such policies.


With this, it's well within the realm of possibility for Korea to establish itself as the next great East Asian power after Japan and China.
 
I considered putting it there, but in the end, there's nothing here that's really magical or 100% impossible. The timeline follows the near-implausible extremities of many scenarios, but that doesn't result in it being ASB.

I think North Korea becoming the worlds 10th largest economy within 25 years is ASB, outside of large scale nuclear war not involving or affecting North Korea
 

Hendryk

Banned
People need to stop writing FH TLs as though the world was still operating along 19th-century norms. I know it's fun to play around with maps, but all this stuff about annexing this and annexing that is ridiculously implausible.
 

Vexacus

Banned
With the previous post being on October 26th, 2011 01:37 PM, I'll be the one to call it: This thread is dead
 
With the previous post being on October 26th, 2011 01:37 PM, I'll be the one to call it: This thread is dead

It's not exactly dead, this was always meant to be a one-post TL. Going up to 2031 was already pretty hard, and going past that will definitely be ASB.
 
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Well, what a wanktastic little TL. It's probably ASB, but there's nothing that's actually impossible in it so I guess it's best left where it is.

What is China called ITTL? The CCP did fall right?
 
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