The eagle's left head

Why so much Serbian hype? Don't get me wrong they are going to be strong but certainly not undefeatable. I mean Bulgaria and Hungary can be used against the Serbs. Also I have not so much faith in the Wiki army estimates tbh. Serbia could muster a lot of troops but certainly not all of them of the highest quality or experience.
It's just that Stefan is a good commander on top of being able to field large armies, and the Vatatzes will have a lot on their plate that may force them to have to field one or two armies in Sicily or Italy against the Durazzos or Tarantos due to the post-Robertian anarchy we see after his death, and the conquest of the rest of Sicily under Louis the Child would be needed.

Its just that Serbia would choose the battlefield, especially in the beginning where the Vatatzes would have their focus scattered between different regions that makes the Serbs really hard to fight against.

I do agree that the Lascarids would have a better army in general and a navy which the Serbs don't have.
@galileo-034 very good analysis!

I think it is worth mentioning that the original core of Philanthropenos army was comprised of 3,000 Cretan rebels. I am pretty sure their nobles have gained by now rich fiefs in Sicily, Calabria and Greece. By 1350, it will be their grandsons that hold those fiefs. Yet Cretans have proved that they have long memories. It might be plausible that the heirs of those exiles might agitate the Lascarids towards war with Venice. Or might not.

The prospect of the Venetian-Catalan alliance crushing Genoa will be a grave threat to Sicily, especially if the Lascarids have finally conquered Catalan Sicily. The Catalans are natural enemies of the Genoese over Sardinia. Moreover, Pedro IV conquering Majorca will increase the potential catalan threat.

Then it is the matter that sicilian wheat feeds Genoa and guelf Tuscany, while Genoese and their guelf allies consume most of the (low quality) sicilian cotton.

Overall, there are major stakeholders that would be against the Catalan-Venetian alliance.
I think the Lacarids would need to fight against the Venetians bc of many reasons, so I agree with your analysis, especially when the Lascarids are more allied with the Genoese than with the Venetins due to commercial ties, while the Venetians and Lascarids should have less ties commercially, so breaking ties with them would be for the better, especially if they gain Crete and/or Euboea.

Hungary is another major ally that would act against Venice, and I think it'd just work in the Lascarids' favour. If they stayed neutral against Louis of Hungary I am sure they will have a good working relationship in the next few decades.
 
Just to be sure, what kind of nobles are we speaking of? I'm not quite familiar with Byzantine society, but my understanding is that 'nobility' in the Byzantine sense was quite different from the western definition, something like divided between landed aristocrats, military commanders, and princes from the ruling house, while in the West it had more to do with the feudal nature of power structure, right?
What makes me wonder here in particular is that I'm under the understanding as well that the Lascarid system was meritocratic in essence, and the pronoia system precluding any large landed aristocrats in favor of small landholders, so I'm not sure on which basis to define a 'noble' in the Lascarid realm of the Despotate of Two Sicilies and Hellas.
That's a very good question. I called "nobles" those Greek aristocrats who were leaders of the exiled Cretans. Chieftains and clan leaders could be another way to describe them. Also, I was very sloppy to talk about fiefs. I consider the military aristocracy to have a combination of hereditary property and pronoias.

Pronoia was certainly not a fief and it was wrong of me to use the term. The similarities between the two institutions were superficial. Although there were privileged landowners that received the corvee and secondary charges of peasants. Certainly, a great part of the aristocratic wealth would be from concessions: The Despot giveth, the Despot taketh.

The Despotate's aristocracy won't have administrative and judicial authority over their peasants. Certainly, they will be very different than their Angevin counterparts and less influential in the state. However, together with the civil administrators they constitute the elite and remain major stakeholders. Then there is the matter of how the state came to being : through a 20 year war in Italy and basically the same in Greece. It would make sense that the aristocracy is heavily militarized and would look forward expanding their family holdings (pronoia or not) through conquest. It is really great for the state that the rulling dynasty is pragmatic and opportunistic - they balance the potentially militant stakeholders.
 
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So here is the pickle. I am pretty sure that the Lascarids will be a natural enemy to the Aydinids. If Kantakouzenos allies with Umur Ghazi, then a lascarid alliance would be unlikely. I think both sides will try to attract the Lascarids.
John did push for lets call it detente with the Anatolian beyliks after Pelekanon. Theodore has his trade to protect at a minimum...
I really wonder of what Kantakouzenos will do and what he can actually achieve.
And isn't that an interesting question? After all Byzantium itself is not entirely devoid of resources. But a centralization drive at this stage might not be entirely different from a reconquest.
I really wonder if Alexios has "produced" a number of competent commanders. I mean all great captains in history from Alexander to Temujin created a corps of very capable officers. While Alexios is not of that caliber, he is still a 14th century Balisarius.
That's a logical assumption. If nothing else Alexandros had been keeping a standing army for Alexios to play with. Which means he has by now a whole generation of junior officers around...
I think that sicilian interests would indicate a genoese alliance. The Catalans will be a distant threat even after Palermo hosts the Double-headed Eagle. The Venetians will try their best to attract the Catalans in an alliance, especially since their interests clash with that of Genoa in Sardinia. Moreover, Genoa is a traditional export market for sicilian grain and a close trade partner in general.


How old will Theodore be ?
Born in 1290 so a full decade younger than Ioannis.
I think you could do a great job if you were so inclined, judging from your writings here at least! Time traveling byzantine generals does seem to be an unexplored area in fiction, though. . .
Hmm. How do we want to be creative here? How about young Philip II of Macedon waking up as Theodore II Palaiologos around 1417?

Speaking of targets for Lascarid expansion, I'll just note so far Alexandros, Ioannis and Theodoros have only expanded by seizing opportunities rather than actively pursuing conquests. Alexandros conquered eastern Sicily in 1282 because he happened to be nearby, Calabria in 1284 because Peter had essentially foregone it and Alexandros picked it up for himself, and the Lascarid fortunes in Greece happened because Charles II hadn't enough money to ransom Robert so he paid with Achaea, Tinos (the duchy of the archipelago, there is an attack Naxos mentioned concurrent to the capture of Tinos) as they were low hanging fruits since its leaders had been captured or killed after Mantinea. Byzantine Morea, because Andronikos II was intelligent enough to attack the Lascarids, Attica, Boeotia, Phokis, Phtiotis, and Thessaly perhaps too, in Greece because Frederick's son Alfonso knifed Bernat and invaded Lascarid Greece, Valdemone and Val di Noto in Sicily because Frederick invaded the Despotate and murdered Alexandros, Chios because Ioannis was conveniently nearby to deny it to Zaccaria, Thasos because its pirate activities disturbed Lascarid merchants and trade in the region...
Given that Alexandros has ended up with a kingdom starting with a quartet of galleys on a raid while fearing Michael VIII was about to put him in a dungeon or worse... well I wouldn't exactly accuse him of not actively pursuing conquest.

Pronoia was certainly not a fief and it was wrong of me to use the term. The similarities between the two institutions were superficial. Although there were privileged landowners that received the corvee and secondary charges of peasants. Certainly, a great part of the aristocratic wealth would be from concessions: The Despot giveth, the Despot taketh.
Pronoia was not a fief... unless it was. Or in other words was not a fief as long as central authority was in position to enforce pronoia was not hereditary. Which the Palaiologues could not do increasingly less with every passing year unlike say... Ottoman timars in the very same territory..
 
John did push for lets call it detente with the Anatolian beyliks after Pelekanon. Theodore has his trade to protect at a minimum...
its ironic that by that time (and as the Byzantines are becoming just Constantinople, its hinterlands, Thessaloniki and Achaea in otl, just for them to care less and less about the navy in general.,,
And isn't that an interesting question? After all Byzantium itself is not entirely devoid of resources. But a centralization drive at this stage might not be entirely different from a reconquest.
tbf that's the problem with reviving the ERE under the system in general, doing it under the Palailogoi will just let the Pronoia be used by large landholders and change nothing.
Born in 1290 so a full decade younger than Ioannis.
Hmm, I'm surprised that Theodore is that young compared to Ioannis.
Given that Alexandros has ended up with a kingdom starting with a quartet of galleys on a raid while fearing Michael VIII was about to put him in a dungeon or worse... well I wouldn't exactly accuse him of not actively pursuing conquest.
Yeah I understand why Alexandros and to a lesser extent Ioannis and Theodore feel that way, but they are far from their roots in Syracuse and Messina. My guess would be that Alexandros II will be the 'Conquerer' that puts the Vatatzes into a place where they become a major power themselves. After all, the time of waiting should be ending, and if you don't act you'll be the one who loses, especially in such a turbulent time in the 1300s.
 
Pronoia was not a fief... unless it was. Or in other words was not a fief as long as central authority was in position to enforce pronoia was not hereditary. Which the Palaiologues could not do increasingly less with every passing year unlike say... Ottoman timars in the very same territory..
Indeed! I had in mind the institution during the comnenian and lascarid eras.

By the way, in the story we have arrived at 1328. The Venetians have basically withdrawn from Alexandria since 1323. However, in OTL the Genoese and the Catalans didn't withdraw from that lucrative trade. But what products did the Genoese exported to the Mamluks? If I had to guess, the most important export would have been slaves from the Black Sea region. There is also the constant net outflow of european silver. Having said that, I bet that the second most important export was mastic. The Lascarids control the production of that fine resin. I do wonder if they would promote shipping and trading it by their own subjects (e.g. Sicilians, Monemvasiots), rather than whole-selling it to Italian middlemen. Mastic and the temporary absence of Venetians from Alexandria provides one hell of an opportunity to get a slice of the spice trade.

Other than spices, Mamluk trade can provide incredible synergies for the Despotate's economy. There are two Mamluk products that complement perfectly the sicilian and moreot economy: soda ash and cotton. With syrian and egyptian soda ash, Sicily and Morea can produce high quality white soap. Both places have an abundance of olive oil, they just lack the high-alcalic ash. That kind of white soap was a major export item of various italian cities during the 14th century.

Sicily was the greatest producer of cotton in the western Mediterranean. Morea and Malta were also important producers. However, sicilian cotton was of the lowest quality. Nevertheless, the Sicilians have a unique opportunity of becoming a major producer of cheap cotton textiles that had an expanding market during the 14th century. However, the Mamluk trade could provide Sicily with fine quality syrian cotton - the best available to Europeans. Sicily can become a producer of both low and high quality cotton textiles.

I think Monemvasia can play an important role in the Despotate's economy. Monemvasiots did not have any industry (other than the wine produced in their surrounding area). They were oriented towards shipping. In contrast to OTL they have an opportunity to truly shine and expand beyond their rocky islet. Malvasia wine, mastic, thassian and chian wine, morean grain, cotton and silk, theban silk textiles, valonia acorns and kermes, sicilian grain, wine, cotton and silk, calabrian silk and timber... So many opportunities.
 
Given that Alexandros has ended up with a kingdom starting with a quartet of galleys on a raid while fearing Michael VIII was about to put him in a dungeon or worse... well I wouldn't exactly accuse him of not actively pursuing conquest.
True enough. Yet... It's not like he started the war by himself or provoked the Sicilians' uprising against Angevins.
He invited himself in later and took advantage of the situation.

EDIT: Maybe I should speak of war of aggression rather than war of conquest, to be more closer to my argument's meaning.
 
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So looking back at Andronikos III's rise to power in 1327, we notice that this final part to the first palaiologan civil war did not involve Bulgaria or Serbia and concluded quickly within the month; Consequently then it could be assumed there would be less death and destruction in Macedonia, and with the Despotate securing the sea lanes against pirates in the Aegean, shouldnt the Empire see a slightly higher income ITTL?

This also allows A3 another year of preparation before the battle of Pelekanon; I wonder if this is enough time for Ioannis Kantakouzenos to set things straighter in the administration or for A3 to more disciplinize the army before June 1329? Regardless an extra year will prove a boon for A3.

Realistically though, as others have stated, is the Empire's administration worth saving? Or is it just better for the empire to burn and for Theodore to continue to expand the Catepanate into Macedonia when the next civil war starts? I'd love for him to have his capital in Thessaloniki by 1350, and for the Vatatzes to replace the empire by 1400. It'd be super interesting seeing an Ottoman Empire contained to Anatolia and expanding East while the ERE secures Southern Balkans and Magna Graecia, and how they interact with each other.
 
Trading with the Mamluks is also a good way to irritate the pope even more(breaking his embargo) and thus the knights hospitallers, a perennial problem for the Italian traders, not a great plan for the already kinda suss are they really in union or no Vatatzes
 
That would be unwise indeed, especially since the alliance with the Hospitalers since the days of Amorgos has been essential in ensuring the tranquility of Lascarid Aegean possession and trade.
That proved especially true when they defended these waters when Theodore was off to crush Frederick's fleet and relieve Syracuse in 1316, or the role of Hospitaler knights under von Schwarzburg at the battle of Corinth (1320) in helping Philantropenos crushing Alfonso's army which led to Lascarid conquest of Attica in its aftermath as Alfonso retreated to Boeotia.
 
On the other hand one might say the Knights of Rhodes have conquered rightful Roman clay so if they pirate the stronger power in the region , the Despotate, they will get annexed and the resources of Rhodes will be used directly from the Laskarids.
That on the other hand might worry Venice more and trigger their involvement and then cascade into a general Aegean war but also it might not.
 
Trading with the Mamluks is also a good way to irritate the pope even more(breaking his embargo) and thus the knights hospitallers, a perennial problem for the Italian traders, not a great plan for the already kinda suss are they really in union or no Vatatzes
In OTL the Pope provided a license to Zaccaria to export mastic to Egypt. It was recognized that mastic as a "spice" was not war-making material. In contrast, the Genoese (and Venetians before 1323 and after 1345) shipped Black Sea slaves to Egypt, to replenish the ranks of the Mamluks. If anything, the slave traders are augmenting the war-making capacity of the Sultanate.

At the same time, the Lascarids are the main force behind countering turkish piracy in the Aegean and the main ally of the Hospitallers. I can see them being the main contributors behind any ATL Smyrniote Crusade and a natural enemy of the seafaring beyliks. In general, I doubt the Pope will act against the Lascarids.
 
Part 48
Thessaly, March 1329

Demetrias, surrendered to its besiegers. The Sicilians would devote the campaign season securing the smaller castles in Magnesia. By the end of the year they would advance to secure Pharsalos and Pherae from the Catalans. Alfonso would still securely hold Larisa but his army kept dwindling, particularly since with the loss of Magnesia what remained of Catalan Thessaly was effectively landlocked/

Pelekanon, June 1329

Andronikos III and Ioannis Kantakouzenos could not be blamed for not trying to check Ottoman advances in Asia Minor. When Orhan had blockaded Nicaea and Nicomedeia the last major cities in Anatolia in imperial hands they had collected an army of 4,000 men to challenge the Ottomans. Theodore Lascaris had conveniently provided ships for this army to cross into Asia Minor even as he refused to send soldiers.But Orhan had been able to muster twice as many men. In a two day battle the imperial army had fought well but had been defeated and forced to retreat nevertheless. Relief would not reach either Nicaea or Nicomedeia.

Lesvos, September 1329


A rare sight in the past half century appeared in front of Mytiline as a Byzantine fleet with Andronikos III in command appeared before the port. Martino Zaccaria was a capable man. His brother Benedetto was not as capable but he was certainly ambitious enough to want to take the place of his brother thus had turned to Andronikos for support. Andronikos had not failed to take advantage of the opportunity to invade the island. The Greek population had risen up in support of the emperor and Martino with 500 mercenaries had been forced into the castle of Lesvos. But he had been forced to surrender that as well when his mercenaries had start deserting him for Andronikos. Lesvos was back in the imperial fold. Phokaia would follow before the end of the year.

Trapani, December 1329


Walter VI of Brienne was a frustrated man. First he had to work wit Vatatzes, the very same Vatatzes who had conquered his own feudal claims in Greece. Then thanks to the German invasion of Italy, Robert had switched his efforts from Sicily to the Italian mainland, giving Frederck a much needed breathing space. It was not that Frederick's position had much improved, apparently this year he had been forced to lay up over half his galley fleet lacking the money to pay their crews. But he still had been able to field over six thousand men on land enough to fight both Vatatzes raids and Walter's own advances to a standstill. And however much Walter did not want to admit it, were it not for Vatatzes attacks in the east Frederick would had likely been able to advance into Angevin held territory reversing some of the gains made in the previous years.

Lesvos, March 1330


Ioannis Kantakouzenos had been busy at work for the past several months following the liberation of the island and Phokaia. New pronoias had been granted both here and in the mainland organizing a garrison of about a thousand men to secure the new holdings. The income from the alum mines and Lesvos taxes, slightly over 110,000 hyperpyra in total, would go directly to the imperial fisc paying for a standing army of five hundred heavy horse and twice as many infantry. Benedetto Zaccaria who had gained nothing for his treason was not a happy man. Neither had been several nobles in Andronikos entourage who had been hoping to be granted the use of the alum mines. It did not matter to Kantakouzenos. The empire mattered more than any individual.

Macedonia, July 1330


Andronikos III, seized Prilem and the forts surrounding it then ceased his advance into Serb territory. The emperor had allied with Michael Sisman of Bulgaria against the Serbs but trusted his newly found Bulgarian ally very little. not without good reason. He would wait on the Serbs and Bulgarians to fight it out.

Velbazhd, July 1330


The opposing Serb and Bulgarian armies were roughly comperable in size with the Serbs mustering some 18,000 men and the Bulgarians about 15,000 men. But the Serd army thanks to the revenues from the kingdoms silver mines had included abouut 3,000 Italian and German knights as mercenaries. The heavy cavalry Serb and Westerner alike led by the son of the king, Stefan Dusan, had proven decisive breaking Bulgarian lines in a surprise attack and killing emperor Michael Sisman. The Bulgarians would avoid a complete rout and a peace between the two states would be soon signed but Serbia had clearly demonstrated it was the dominant military power in the Balkans.

Asia Minor, March 1331


Nicaea fell to the Ottoman army. Nicomedeia was the last major city still in Byzantine hands. But the Ottomans were already blockading it for the past few years...
 
Well, at least Andro tried to save the last Roman cities on the Asian side of the Marmara. Phokaia and Lesvos are nice additions to the empire though so it's not all bad
 
It did not matter to Kantakouzenos. The empire mattered more than any individual.
Indeed, but while I think that everyone would agree, at least in principle, Might be worth to note that often discontent nobles/underlings, are one of the most usual sources of potential danger of a weak state.
And they need to be watched carefully and/or if possible to find something that while worth enough as to compensate they wouldn't put the State itself at risk/or that'd compromise its tax revenues.
 
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Demetrias, surrendered to its besiegers. The Sicilians would devote the campaign season securing the smaller castles in Magnesia. By the end of the year they would advance to secure Pharsalos and Pherae from the Catalans. Alfonso would still securely hold Larisa but his army kept dwindling, particularly since with the loss of Magnesia what remained of Catalan Thessaly was effectively landlocked/
Is it fair to assume that Domokos has been captured as well?

With Pharsalos in lascarid hands, the thessalian heartland is open for chevauchée raids. In my understanding, the plains were not densely fortified. The next fortified towns will be Larissa, Trikala and I guess Karditsa. Then there are the major fortresses of Phanari and Agia and Grizano at the thessalian piedmont. This vulnerability alongside with the loss of the exporting ports of Demetrias and Halmyros, will produce an interesting political situation for Fadrique vis-a-vis his Catalan and Greek nobles.

In a two day battle the imperial army had fought well but had been defeated and forced to retreat nevertheless. Relief
Was Andronikos wounded as in OTL or not?

Ioannis Kantakouzenos had been busy at work for the past several months following the liberation of the island and Phokaia. New pronoias had been granted both here and in the mainland organizing a garrison of about a thousand men to secure the new holdings. The income from the alum mines and Lesvos taxes, slightly over 110,000 hyperpyra in total, would go directly to the imperial fisc paying for a standing army of five hundred heavy horse and twice as many infantry. Benedetto Zaccaria who had gained nothing for his treason was not a happy man. Neither had been several nobles in Andronikos entourage who had been hoping to be granted the use of the alum mines. It did not matter to Kantakouzenos. The empire mattered more than any individual.
That makes sense. The only place where Kantakouzenos can enforce the lascarid paradigm is a newly conquered territory with no established elites. I am a bit confused on the army figures. The new income will support 2500 men, 1000 of which will garrison Lesvos and Phokaia? Or will it be 1500 men in total?

In any case, that would be a major increase of the imperial army, since most field armies of Andronikos' reign were not bigger than 2000 men, with Pelekanon and the 4000-strong host being a major effort.

Hungary is another major ally that would act against Venice, and I think it'd just work in the Lascarids' favour. If they stayed neutral against Louis of Hungary I am sure they will have a good working relationship in the next few decades.
Back at the end of the War of the Vespers, the local lascarid army constituted of 3000 cavalry and 8000 foot, not counting the Catalan mercenaries. Since then, the Despotate has expanded and is prospering, while Calabria has had 30 years of peace. I think that Ioannis could now field 12-15,000 men from his italian holdings alone, with similar percentages to 1302 (2/3 of the cavalry light stratiotai, 1/3 heavy cavalry). He will be power broker, courted by all Angevin branches.

There is another thing when it comes to Venice: I guess they would have retained their original trade privileges in Morea. Ioannis would have been in no position to change the past agreements in the early 1300s. That would be a major loss of potential income for the Catepanate. In 1400, the trade volume in Patras that corresponded mostly to the regions of Achaia and Elis, was 80,000 ducats. I wouldn't be surprised at in the mid 14th century the trade of the whole Morea would have been ~300,000 ducats. Apply a 2-4% tariff and it is a potential income 6-12k ducats.
 
I wonder now with the loss in Pelekanon if Andronikos will attack in Thessaly to take Larissa. I would be a good idea but he will have to face the Serbs first as we see later.
Lascaris did write that Andronikos III worried about "the continuing advances of Theodore Lascaris in Thessaly where he had begun besieging Demetrias from land and sea. Of course Theodore was technically an ally. But one who was starting to become too large for comfort...".
If Fadrique and the Catalans are cornered and vulnerable between the Lascarids to their south and the Epirotes to their west (I don't see Orsini not trying anything... again), it stands to reason someone like Andronikos III would seize the opportunity to grab a piece of Thessaly, lest all of it fall to Theodore (some of it is better than nothing), and same time reassert imperial authority in Greece after the loss of Morea, in Epirus particularly, where Andronikos III could play both his force and the previous history between the Orsinis and the Vatatzes to reimpose his rule.

Then, I'm wondering what is to become of Andronikos III's and Ioannis VI's alliance with Umur Beg, especially because of what it might imply in the relations between Syracuse and Constantinople, and the Lascarids' participation in a Smyrniote crusade.

If the Lascarids do participate in this crusade though, I'd surmise they are very well positionned to take advantage of the crusade's leaders being stupid enough to get massacred by Umur Beg the way it happened IOTL; by default, they'd be left alone to defend crusaders' gain, not unlike Alexandros was left behind by Peter to defend Calabria in 1284 TTL and eventually ruled it as his domain.
 
It should be worth noting that Phocaea was captured by Andronikos III three years early (1331 compared to 1334 IOTL). Will that tip the scales for Andronikos' campaigns this decade? I think that is unlikely as I know Lascaris doesn't like to stray from the Timeline too much. But, it seems like the more important aspect is the fact that there are pronoias being established at all. I wonder if this would make a Vatatzes takeover of now-pronoia land more smooth, or more tough? After all, rallying the people against nobility seems like a relatively easy casus belli to do, whereas convincing the new pronoia that their Emperor who just granted them lands is in the wrong... This is certainly interesting!

Thinking a little forward in the TL to the second Palaiologan Civil War, I wonder if we will still see it still break into a pseudo-class war? (Using Wikipedia as a source, haven't gotten to this point yet with Norwich or Kaldellis) If the Empire is the only thing that matters to Kantakouzenos, and he has seen how well the Pronoia system works under Vatatzes' guiding hand and he can replicate it in the ERE, I wonder if we'd see him allied with the regency against a nobility uprising ITTL instead of him allying with the Aristocracy IOTL? Or perhaps the positions of the Civil War flips, and we see Anna ally with the ailing aristocracy, while Kantakouzenos is the one who allies with the Zealots/Pronoia? I mean he will eventually lead the pronoia when Andronikos III dies regardless so it'd make sense he'd want to secure their loyalty?

So many questions, too little time.

Thanks for another update Lascaris!
 
Pelekanon, June 1329
Velbazhd, July 1330
and these two very important failures happen as per otl, which I think very much solidifies the failure of the ERE under Andronikos III to reverse the fortunes of the empire he hs inherited. To the rest of the actors in the scene, I think the ERE would still be a tougher nut to crack, especially since the civil war ended a year earlier, but I think the situation would just develop for the Vatatzes' benefit as even though after the first few defeats in his campaign Andronikos III would still be able to at least retake Macedonia and Andronikos wouldn't move against the Vatatzes unless they did something very outreagous.
Lascaris did write that Andronikos III worried about "the continuing advances of Theodore Lascaris in Thessaly where he had begun besieging Demetrias from land and sea. Of course Theodore was technically an ally. But one who was starting to become too large for comfort...".
If Fadrique and the Catalans are cornered and vulnerable between the Lascarids to their south and the Epirotes to their west (I don't see Orsini not trying anything... again), it stands to reason someone like Andronikos III would seize the opportunity to grab a piece of Thessaly, lest all of it fall to Theodore (some of it is better than nothing), and same time reassert imperial authority in Greece after the loss of Morea, in Epirus particularly, where Andronikos III could play both his force and the previous history between the Orsinis and the Vatatzes to reimpose his rule.
tbf I think Andronikos would at first go for an attack on Bulgaria first like otl since Stefan Dusan essentially conquered most of Macedonia soon after, and the Serbians are on the upswing rn. In fact I could see there be a small to medium conflict occurring between Serbia and the Vatatzes if things go as per otl and most of Macedonia is conquered. This very much means that I think Andronikos would allow the Vatatzes to go for the offensive in regions where he normally would've not wanted them to be in, and I could very much see the Vatatzes being able to advance to Botteia if only due to the lack of Imperial control during the next few years.
 
Thinking a little forward in the TL to the second Palaiologan Civil War,
Would there even be a second civil war in this TL. It seems to me that Andronikos' death could easily be butteflied away (and Lascaris has already changed the history of the empire on a few occasions). Honestly I am hoping to see more of Andronikos and Ioannes trying to replicate successfully inside their empire what the despotate has been doing for years.
Kaldellis
Would you recommend it? Seems interesting but would like the opinion of someone who is reading it.
 
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