The Boys In Blue: a New Zealand dictatorship TL

Interesting. I would have thought that the selection of the next GG would have been severely scrutinised by Britain, given Sir Cyril poured petrol on the constitutional quagmire that led to the war. Instead, we get an unprecedented (ITTL) home-grown Kiwi.

Keep up the good work!
 
My reasoning there is that Holland simply would not trust the Attlee Government's Foreign Office. He wants someone who is "politically reliable" - hence Billy Glenn, who was actually a Reform (i.e. Tory) MP in the 1920s, as well as being an All Black. The early adoption of the State of Westminster helps too - Holland was nothing if not dismissive of constitutional niceties when it suited him. We're talking about the guy who in real life said that a Constitutional Reform Committee Report would get no further than his toilet.

(In OTL, we didn't get a New Zealand born Governor General until Sir Arthur Porritt in the late 1960s).
 
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Interesting update. I hadn't expected occupying forces. Losing 500,000 people seems like a stretch though, especially with only 10,000 casualties.
 
I do think that with three vaguely liberal occupying powers there'd be very strong pressure for an election, especially to be held up as some kind of model in contrast to what the Soviets were doing in their sphere of influence.
 
Thanks. I have plans for Rob's Mob.

As for Australia: Menzies takes care of that one in the 1950s and 1960s, and by the time we get into the 1970s and 1980s, the regime is sufficiently well established that it is now considered normal (Cold War and no UN helps, though Gough Whitlam will have a few things to say, and do). One odd side-effect though will be the presence of a leftist New Zealand exile community swinging elections in Australia. Arthur Calwell is destined to win 1961, for instance.

Will this be a junta style dictatorship centered on the executive or an authoritarian democracy like Apartheid South Africa where the ruling party can't lose due to gerrymandering and voter intimidiation but does allow some parliamentary independence and opposition?
 
I suspect it has to be the latter; a fiction has to be maintained lest even right-wing governments in Canberra, London or Washington feel moved to act. Backing Juntas in Latin America, that's one thing- white english speakers being openly oppressed will make supporting New Zealand hard even for the hard-right of the Tories, Republicans and the Coalition.
So long as Holland and his successors are at least keeping the trappings of democracy, people like Menzies will be only too happy to work with him; but if there's open flouting of western norms eventually it'll bring down too much foreign pressure.
 
Yah, that's the problem. Maeglin has written a great timeline but there are a lot of issues with the basic premise which make it harder to believe.

A key problem is that he is trying to create the first white, Anglo post war dictatorship and as such is breaking new ground. NZ is both a great and bad choice
 

Pangur

Donor
He could get around the various issues by having the Gov demand an oath of loyality before they can stand as candidates and phrase that oath in such away that few is any reds will take it. Dress the oath up as part of restoring order and democracy
 
Awesome feedback people.

- I'll cut the migration factor from 500,000 to 200,000. I do think there would be significant "let's get out of here" sentiment in the aftermath of what's happened (there will also be other social effects later on, that even Holland couldn't account for).

- My idea with the occupation was in response to previous feedback, regarding intervention and timing. I figured that I could get Holland paying lip service to the Allies for three years, at which point anti-Communism becomes paramount, so he is left to do his own thing. I think I'll make it more explicit though - Holland can argue (actually quite reasonably) that the country is in no fit state for elections at the moment, and there is no way even the most moderate Labourite would ever want to work with him in a unity government.

- Regarding the dictatorship, I'll lay my cards on the table: my plan was to have the 1950s be a sort of Salazar's Portugal - a single "national" party that exists to rubber stamp the executive (the civil war experience provides motivation and excuse to try and replace political parties with a more "unified" (read corporatist) political framework). Since Algie is more of a political philosopher, I was intending him to be the brains behind that. My idea then was to have a "thaw" under another leader, who allows other (non-socialist) parties, but who rigs the system so blatantly that the Government can never lose (in combination with a nasty security service). This then ends up being taken in a more theocratic (or at least heavily sectarian-with-a-dash-of-fundamentalism) direction under Bjelke-Petersen and Keith Hay - and yes, I am planning to revive the Protestant Political Association as a mass movement.
 
Interesting... I think 500, 000 is plausible, just not in three years. I'd expect the Brain Drain to be an order of magnitude worse ITTL, so I can see that by the 1960s you'd be half a million shy of OTL's population.

The sectarianism sounds very plausible; it's one of the only social issues the government could really use to keep the population divided in mid twentieth century NZ. Across the ditch, that might butterfly the split in the Australian Labor Party- there'll be a decent infusion of NZ's Catholic Left into Melbourne and Sydney. That'll strengthen the social conservatives in the ALP like Santamaria, but if the Coalition is openly backing the PPA in NZ there'll be less willingness for Australian Catholics to split Labor.

Hmm. My grandfather was a proper Catholic Labor man, a proper Kiwi journalist (first into Ballantyne's after the fire) and later a newspaper editor who was a key ally of Norman Kirk and then turned against him over abortion- and ended up on the wrong side of Muldoon after that.
ITTL, if he didn't die in the retreat from Christchurch I suspect he ends up in Melbourne writing for the exile press.
 
This *definitely* helps the ALP - not only are there lefty (and Catholic) exiles, but they will argue that Menzies wants to turn Australia into New Zealand (a scare campaign the other way for a change).

Calwell wins 1961 comfortably here, and Whitlam wins 1969. 1954 is a cliffhanger, with a not-so-subtle hint that the Petrov Affair was aided by the intervention of New Zealand Security Service, desperate to save a friendly government.
 
Hmm... alt-Brian Tamaki leading the last vestiges of the PPA, embarrassing everyone at its survival through the transition to democracy?

Actually, one thing I noticed is that we haven't heard much about how the various Iwi reacted to the unrest. I would have thought that in some areas- the King Country, Northland, the Urewaras- they'd have been quite important. What happened when the Maori Battalion returned home?



Oh, and have you any ideas for James K Baxter?
 

Pangur

Donor
This *definitely* helps the ALP - not only are there lefty (and Catholic) exiles, but they will argue that Menzies wants to turn Australia into New Zealand (a scare campaign the other way for a change).

Calwell wins 1961 comfortably here, and Whitlam wins 1969. 1954 is a cliffhanger, with a not-so-subtle hint that the Petrov Affair was aided by the intervention of New Zealand Security Service, desperate to save a friendly government.

Now there is a nice twist to this and its not implausible either.
 
Hmm... alt-Brian Tamaki leading the last vestiges of the PPA, embarrassing everyone at its survival through the transition to democracy?

Actually, one thing I noticed is that we haven't heard much about how the various Iwi reacted to the unrest. I would have thought that in some areas- the King Country, Northland, the Urewaras- they'd have been quite important. What happened when the Maori Battalion returned home?

The position of Maori is a tricky one. Lee in OTL was no friend to Maori (he kicked them off land for a state housing project), and by marginalising Savage's influence, you remove the deep attachment between Labour and Maori. Holland in OTL pretty much ignored them.

It's also worth remembering that electorally at this point in OTL, New Zealand really did practice a sort of electoral apartheid: if you were majority Maori, you *had* to vote in one of the four designated Maori seats, while everyone else voted in the General Electorates. There was a nasty 1949 election dispute about half-blooded Maori voting in one General Electorate. This system wasn't altered in OTL until the 1960s and 1970s - and in TTL, it likely wouldn't be altered until the 1990s.

I think what you will see here is Maori remain rural, poor, and subject to neglect - the Maori renaissance will have to wait until much much later.
 
That's sadly plausible.




I have to admit though, I'm vaguely amused at the idea that ITTL Australians will look down on Kiwis as being racist, ultraconservative hicks in the pocket of the yanks, while many Kiwis will view Australia as left wing and self-important....
 
7696267.jpg

Mount Eden Prison, Auckland, at it appears today.

"It appears we are in something a quandary," said Ronald Algie.

The Big Three (as Sidney Holland mentally referred to himself, Campbell, and Algie), had gathered in the Prime Ministerial office to consider the captured Lee. Far more than any Cabinet meeting, this was where true power within the new Government lay: Holland had little time for first-amongst-equals nonsense. George Forbes had tried that, and look where it got him! No, a Prime Minister had to be active, lead from the front, and take the advice of a small group of advisers. Algie was the brains of the operation, Campbell was the muscle. All in all, it was a quite satisfactory arrangement, though the likes of Bill Sullivan looked on with jealousy from time to time.

"Up shit creek without a paddle," suggested Eric Campbell.

The difficulty was this: Holland had secretly assured the Americans that Lee and the rest of the captured Red leadership would not be executed. Except that Algie (in consultation with Jack Marshall, the Attorney-General) had pointed out that under the High Treason Act 1870, treason in New Zealand carried a mandatory death penalty. Any commutation of sentence would have to be approved by Cabinet - and no-one outside this room knew of the American deal. Holland did not want to allow knowledge of such a sensitive issue beyond his treasured Big Three. But how to convince Cabinet to do as they were told without spilling the beans? Ordering them to do as he said would simply result in a group of disappointed and confused rebel Ministers, or worse, those Ministers might think to overrule their leader in the name of vengeance. Jack Marshall, for one, was very keen on seeing Lee hang, and that blasted lawyer knew a thing or two about debate. No, the arguments for any commutation plan must be water-tight.

"Perhaps we could say that it would make us look reasonable and magnanimous?" said Algie.

Campbell nodded. "A good way to fob off our "friendly" occupiers. The sooner they're convinced we aren't bloodthirsty savages, the sooner they'll leave us alone."

Even though the Occupation was the price of victory, it still grated. It was bad enough having Ben Chifley urge the rehabilitation of the Labour Party and the formation of a Unity Government until elections could be held - as if even Walter Nash would want any part of that!

"Treason is treason," said Holland. "It's not as if the British shirk at enforcing the penalty on that. Look at that Lord Haw Haw business last year. No, we have to somehow make commutation seem a punishment worse than death."

"Mount Eden is tough," said Eric Campbell. "I know from personal experience."

"But it's not tough enough," said Holland. "Besides, there's always the possibility of this Muldoon fellow organising a prison break."

Algie blinked. "What is the update on Muldoon?"

"No idea," said Holland. "For all I know, he's smuggled himself aboard the boat with Rex Mason."

Campbell jerked up. "What if we build a tougher prison - just for Lee and friends. A special facility..."

"Interesting," said Holland. "Where were you thinking?"

"It couldn't be on the mainland," said Algie. "Too risky to have it near people."

"The Chatham Islands?" suggested Campbell.

"I like the sound of that," said Holland. "We'd have to move the Islanders first though."

"Eureka!" said Algie. "I have it. Let us put our former President of the Democratic Republic in special confinement... on the Auckland Islands."

"The where?" said Campbell.

"Is there an atlas around here, Sidney? Ah, thank you. Now... here we are."

Map-Subs-eez.jpg

The Auckland Islands, relative to New Zealand

Auckland_islands_topo.png

The Auckland Islands, in detail.

Algie pointed. "Quite remote, as you can see. Uninhabited these days, though I do believe there were attempts at a colony many years ago. No need to move any Islanders, no need to worry about escapes. And I would think that exile to a subantarctic island group would be enough to convince Jack Marshall and his ilk that sometimes life is worse than death."

Thus the Auckland Islands Prison was born. Or, as it became known to the international protest movement of the 1970s: the literal Gulag Archipelago.
 
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The position of Maori is a tricky one. Lee in OTL was no friend to Maori (he kicked them off land for a state housing project), and by marginalising Savage's influence, you remove the deep attachment between Labour and Maori. Holland in OTL pretty much ignored them.

It's also worth remembering that electorally at this point in OTL, New Zealand really did practice a sort of electoral apartheid: if you were majority Maori, you *had* to vote in one of the four designated Maori seats, while everyone else voted in the General Electorates. There was a nasty 1949 election dispute about half-blooded Maori voting in one General Electorate. This system wasn't altered in OTL until the 1960s and 1970s - and in TTL, it likely wouldn't be altered until the 1990s.

I think what you will see here is Maori remain rural, poor, and subject to neglect - the Maori renaissance will have to wait until much much later.

Hmm, well it seems almost certain the renaissance would be stymied by your POD, but on the other hand the renaissance was in part pushed by the urbanisation of Maori post war.

Now I don't think you can easily fight that second trend, as it reflects broader global economic trends and local demographic recovery. It also was pushed by the need for labour in the cities. ITTL with the large diaspora, I would expect that Maori still urbanise in large numbers, which will mean a large, urban population of Maori. This does not of course mean that they'll necessarily achieve success or anything but it will be a massively destabilising force for National to contend with.
 
7696267.jpg

Mount Eden Prison, Auckland, at it appears today.

"It appears we are in something a quandary," said Ronald Algie.

The Big Three (as Sidney Holland mentally referred to himself, Campbell, and Algie), had gathered in the Prime Ministerial office to consider the captured Lee. Far more than any Cabinet meeting, this was where true power within the new Government lay: Holland had little time for first-amongst-equals nonsense. George Forbes had tried that, and look where it got him! No, a Prime Minister had to be active, lead from the front, and take the advice of a small group of advisers. Algie was the brains of the operation, Campbell was the muscle. All in all, it was a quite satisfactory arrangement, though the likes of Bill Sullivan looked on with jealousy from time to time.

"Up shit creek without a paddle," suggested Eric Campbell.

The difficulty was this: Holland had secretly assured the Americans that Lee and the rest of the captured Red leadership would not be executed. Except that Algie (in consultation with Jack Marshall, the Attorney-General) had pointed out that under the High Treason Act 1870, treason in New Zealand carried a mandatory death penalty. Any commutation of sentence would have to be approved by Cabinet - and no-one outside this room knew of the American deal. Holland did not want to allow knowledge of such a sensitive issue beyond his treasured Big Three. But how to convince Cabinet to do as they were told without spilling the beans? Ordering them to do as he said would simply result in a group of disappointed and confused rebel Ministers, or worse, those Ministers might think to overrule their leader in the name of vengeance. Jack Marshall, for one, was very keen seeing Lee hang, and that blasted lawyer knew a thing or two about debate. No, the arguments for any commutation plan must be water-tight.

"Perhaps we could say that it would make us look reasonable and magnanimous?" said Algie.

Campbell nodded. "A good way to fob off our "friendly" occupiers. The sooner they're convinced we aren't bloodthirsty savages, the sooner they'll leave us alone."

Even though the Occupation was the price of victory, it still grated. It was bad enough having Ben Chifley urge the rehabilitation of the Labour Party and the formation of a Unity Government until elections could be held - as if even Walter Nash would want any part of that!

"Treason is treason," said Holland. "It's not as if the British shirk at enforcing the penalty on that. Look at that Lord Haw Haw business last year. No, we have to somehow make commutation seem a punishment worse than death."

"Mount Eden is tough," said Eric Campbell. "I know from personal experience."

"But it's not tough enough," said Holland. "Besides, there's always the possibility of this Muldoon fellow organising a prison break."

Algie blinked. "What is the update on Muldoon?"

"No idea," said Holland. "For all I know, he's smuggled himself aboard the boat with Rex Mason."

Campbell jerked up. "What if we build a tougher prison - just for Lee and friends. A special facility..."

"Interesting," said Holland. "Where were you thinking?"

"It couldn't be on the mainland," said Algie. "Too risky to have it near people."

"The Chatham Islands?" suggested Campbell.

"I like the sound of that," said Holland. "We'd have to move the Islanders first though."

"Eureka!" said Algie. "I have it. Let us put our former President of the Democratic Republic in special confinement... on the Auckland Islands."

"The where?" said Campbell.

"Is there an atlas around here, Sidney? Ah, thank you. Now... here we are."

Map-Subs-eez.jpg

The Auckland Islands, relative to New Zealand

Auckland_islands_topo.png

The Auckland Islands, in detail.

Algie pointed. "Quite remote, as you can see. Uninhabited these days, though I do believe there were attempts at a colony many years ago. No need to move any Islanders, no need to worry about escapes. And I would think that exile to a subantarctic island group would be enough to convince Jack Marshall and his ilk that sometimes life is worse than death."

Thus the Auckland Islands Prison was born. Or, as it became known to the international protest movement of the 1970s: the literal Gulag Archipelago.

Well, at least someone has found a use for the Auckland Islands!

My concern would be that, unlike Soviet equivalent, is that the islands are almost too far removed from NZ. Potentially very vulnerable to external interference. Whilst I admit it unlikely, I could see unfriendly powers (Eastern Bloc*, Australia?) ships or submarines sniffing about in later years and there is precious little a NZ government could do about that, given the distance.

Stewart Island might be better placed as it is much closer to the mainland and thus easier to supply or protect. Although I'll note that Lee was quite popular in parts of Bluff or Invercargill.

That being said, someone needs to keep those kelp eating cattle company
 
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