Stalin shoots himself June 1941?

[black angel]

Joseph Stalin was caught totally off guard by Hitler's 1941 invasion of the USSR, we thought that Stalin was out of action for 3 days at his dacha, drinking heavily and dreading what he was sure was his coming arrest by the other leaders of the Soviet Russia (or the military), new evidence hints however that it may have been as long as 13 days, in the end no one in the USSR was ready or able to lead the nation so they came to Stalin hats in hand to pull him out of the dacha to lead the nation

but what if a depressed, heavily drinking Stalin sure of his own arrest, torture and execution had taken matters into his own hands and killed himself?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Actually, the old story is that it was 13 days (starting from when the invasion began) and the current evidence is that it was 3 days (starting from when Stalin found out Minsk had fallen).

In any case, it is entirely possible that that with Stalin dead the Soviet leadership decides to come to a power-sharing agreement. It is also possible that they start fighting for leadership and the Soviet war effort suffers for it.

How likely is each possibility? That is a big unknown and one could run with it in any potential direction.

 

[Kaiser K]

It would have been very very bad for the Soviets, Stalin for all of his many many and incredibly disgusting faults (that's of course another story), was ultimately the glue that held the initially fragile nature of the Soviet Union together (and ultimately through the tough early months of the war and to eventual victory against the Reich), everything in the country went through him, and nobody else in the inner circle of higher levels of the Soviet government really had a clue what to do without Stalin; which is why they were so desperate to get Stalin back from his dacha and to Moscow.

Frankly, without Stalin around to lead and hold the country together in the early months, and without Stalin to heed the advice of his Generals and allow them to do what they needed to do; things are going to go very very south for the Soviets. And very quickly.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Laurence Rees on Stalin

Regarding the 1941 'dacha' episode, Laurence Rees (in his book The Nazis, A Warning From History, 2005 paperback edition, p.174-175) says:

...Back in Moscow, Stalin was coaxed out of his dacha at the end of June after two days, when a delegation from the Politburo 'convinced' him to lead the Soviet Union to victory. (At least one historian believes that Stalin, in retreating to his dacha, was following a ruse of Ivan the Terrible's - feigning collapse to see who supported him and who didn't.) In any event, there was no alternative leader of the Soviet Union. Stalin had helped get them into this disastrous situation - now he would have to help them get out of it.
On 3 July Stalin finally made a radio broadcast to the Soviet people and spoke about the German invasion...

So there's at least one historian out there on record that Stalin wasn't in seclusion in the dacha for anything like thirteen days, and a suggestion at that point that Stalin may have been pulling his game back together sufficiently for the whole dacha withdrawal to be a 'ruse' to see how those around him reacted.
To be honest, from what I've read about the original timeline Stalin, he doesn't seem to me to be the sort to kill himself in June 1941 - the Germans are still hundreds of miles from Moscow, and the Soviet history books have examples like Napoleon Bonaparte of people who've tried to invade Russia before and ended up dramatically failing. Yes, the situation looks bad, has been a sudden very nasty shock, and is embarrassing, but it's a long way short of catastrophic. I just don't see original timeline Stalin as a 'quitter' and 'giving up' to the extent of killing himself at this stage.
And if this isn't the original timeline Stalin, then how has he been managing to run the Soviet Union for years if he's the sort who bumps himself off when the Germans are still such a long way from absolute victory? To my mind that would only likely work if Stalin's been a figurehead for someone else behind the 'throne', who - if Stalin shoots himself - will either take over themself, or appoint another man 'up front'...
*****
For the record, Laurence Rees dates Stalin as retreating back to his dacha on 27th June, 1941, after a meeting at 'the Commissariat of Defence on Frunze Street'. (The Nazis, A Warning from History, 2005 paperback edition, p. 171 & 172.)

 

[tallthinkev]

If there was to be a power grab by those at the top, the USSR can forget lend lease.

 

[Derek Jackson]

The nature of the Nazi invaders would likely have been good for keeping the Soviet Union united in fighting them.

I suspect that 'not Stalin' would be better at winning than uncle jo

 

[Dan]

If Stalin does shoot himself then unless he is very fast and very clever, Beria is next.
That said, if Beria can get his hands on the helm, as I understand it from reading In the Court of the Red Tsar, Economically and politically, Beria was actually rather liberal, so while the war would continue as per, The Soviet Union as we know it may not exist and it may have ended up more like OTL's China but a few decades early.

If not, expect the USSR to flounder and potentially seek terms by Summer of 42 with Germany.

All of this is based on a single source so is likely to be wildly inaccurate.

 

[Dain]

The nature of the Nazi invaders would likely have been good for keeping the Soviet Union united in fighting them.

I suspect that 'not Stalin' would be better at winning than uncle jo

I kind of agree, there would have been no collapse against such a unifying threat. Though I don't think any of the likely Soviet leaders would really have been likely to avoid Stalin's mistakes while there was a lot of room to do worse.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

If Stalin does shoot himself then unless he is very fast and very clever, Beria is next.
That said, if Beria can get his hands on the helm, as I understand it from reading In the Court of the Red Tsar, Economically and politically, Beria was actually rather liberal, so while the war would continue as per, The Soviet Union as we know it may not exist and it may have ended up more like OTL's China but a few decades early.

If not, expect the USSR to flounder and potentially seek terms by Summer of 42 with Germany.

All of this is based on a single source so is likely to be wildly inaccurate.

I was under the impression that Beria constantly abused his power, raping young women and getting away with it. He was also known to be an untrustworthy (even for Stalin's Politburo) schemer. I can see a USSR under Beria being better in terms of less people killed, but worse in the decadence of his rule, given his sexual sadism and what that suggests about his character.

 

[Michel Van]

Regarding the 1941 'dacha' episode, Laurence Rees (in his book The Nazis, A Warning From History, 2005 paperback edition, p.174-175) says:

...Back in Moscow, Stalin was coaxed out of his dacha at the end of June after two days, when a delegation from the Politburo 'convinced' him to lead the Soviet Union to victory. (At least one historian believes that Stalin, in retreating to his dacha, was following a ruse of Ivan the Terrible's - feigning collapse to see who supported him and who didn't.) In any event, there was no alternative leader of the Soviet Union. Stalin had helped get them into this disastrous situation - now he would have to help them get out of it.
On 3 July Stalin finally made a radio broadcast to the Soviet people and spoke about the German invasion...

...
For the record, Laurence Rees dates Stalin as retreating back to his dacha on 27th June, 1941, after a meeting at 'the Commissariat of Defence on Frunze Street'. (The Nazis, A Warning from History, 2005 paperback edition, p. 171 & 172.)

A german documentation about Soviet during World War Two, claims that Stalin was in fear that this delegation from the Politburo had be send to execute him, as source they quote from his diaries.

So if Stalin kill himself before the delegation "do the job" ? it sound realistic, but...
Who gonna replace Stalin on top of USSR ?,
They need a roughshod Man who refuse to surrender and fight to last man
The brutal irony was Stalin was right man for this job.
his only mistake was to trust the treaty USSR sign with The Third Reich

 

[Kaiser K]

A german documentation about Soviet during World War Two, claims that Stalin was in fear that this delegation from the Politburo had be send to execute him, as source they quote from his diaries.

So if Stalin kill himself before the delegation "do the job" ? it sound realistic, but...
Who gonna replace Stalin on top of USSR ?,
They need a roughshod Man who refuse to surrender and fight to last man
The brutal irony was Stalin was right man for this job.
his only mistake was to trust the treaty USSR sign with The Third Reich

There really isn't anyone else for the job, Stalin is the only man for the job, and if he goes; the USSR is really fucking screwed.

 

[Artaxerxes]

There really isn't anyone else for the job, Stalin is the only man for the job, and if he goes; the USSR is really fucking screwed.

Those are my thoughts, a change of leadership at this point would further undermine troop morale that was already shaky and any fighting over whose in charge can only benefit the Germans.

 

[Kaiser K]

Those are my thoughts, a change of leadership at this point would further undermine troop morale that was already shaky and any fighting over whose in charge can only benefit the Germans.

Exactly.

While the members of Stalin's inner circle coming together to stand united in the face of the German adversary is a neat thought and all, it just isn't going to happen, too many differing personalities, egos and ideas for there to not be some form of power struggle (especially if the widely hated Beria makes any sort of play for the General Secretaryship, which would certainly cause some issues), not to mention what a power struggle would do to troop morale and chain of command coordination even more then just what Stalin's suicide/death (Pravda would likely report it as a heart attack, so discounting the suicide part of it being accounted for) alone would itself; and all of this is just only going to benefit the Germans in the end.

I imagine a German victory would be within the distinct realm of possibility in this scenario, especially as I doubt a politically unstable Soviet Union would get too much in lend-lease; which again only helps the Germans.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Plausibility problems

A german documentation about Soviet during World War Two, claims that Stalin was in fear that this delegation from the Politburo had be send to execute him, as source they quote from his diaries...

I just Googled 'Stalin's Diary' and only turned up references to diaries that other real life people, who occasionally worked alongside or under Stalin wrote, and references to occasional conspiracy-theory/thriller novels of a fictional variety. (In contrast, searches for 'Churchill Diaries' and 'Roosevelt diary' rapidly turned up references to real-life documents.) I'm in some doubt therefore as to the academic value of any document that claims 'We read it in Stalin's diaries!!!!' to support a thesis.
(I also find it difficult to credit that if Stalin had kept a diary of any sort that it would ever end up outside of Russia in German hands.)

 

[CDurham]

I was under the impression that Beria constantly abused his power, raping young women and getting away with it. He was also known to be an untrustworthy (even for Stalin's Politburo) schemer. I can see a USSR under Beria being better in terms of less people killed, but worse in the decadence of his rule, given his sexual sadism and what that suggests about his character.

Sounds like he'd make the perfect political scapegoat for whoever winds up in power "former-Comrade Beria was executed after evidence was discovered that he murdered Stalin after the Fascist invasion in an attempt to take power and establish a Fascist state"

Or something to that effect

 

[TheYoungPretender]

Call it history from the gut, but the Stalins of the world don't kill themselves. There are people whose naked will to survive, relentless drive to prosper, and utter unwillingness to lose drives them. Stalin was a loathsome individual, but the qualities that made him loathsome argue that in any USSR loses scenario he'd be be shot after he launched a frenzied assault on the SS guard with nothing but his teeth.

Beria's always an interesting case - irony of history. The most liberal and willing to work with the West of the Soviet leadership also had a record that could convince rationalists that he was Satan in human form...

 

[GeographyDude]

One source which says 13 days also says Stalin ordered Soviet military units not to engage German units, thinking it was all a mistake and these German units were engaging in unauthorized action, and not wanting to provoke Hitler.

Will find this source again.

PS I actually feel a little bad about the depression angle, because I think suicide prevention is basic first aid people should know along with such things as CPR & AED, oral rehydration solution, etc.

 

[GeographyDude]

' . . . A situation of black farce quickly developed. Army commanders on the Ukrainian border were forbidden by Stalin to take defensive action against what he was convinced was unauthorized attacks by German troops, for fear of "provoking Hitler." . . '

https://books.google.com/books?id=l... by Stalin to take defensive action "&f=false

Another interesting question, once a respectable period had past, say five years after Stalin's death . . .

in various power struggles, why didn't a Soviet politician use skillful understatement to discredit Stalin, for example, an ally of Khrushchev might have done this in 1960?

But to the best of my knowledge this didn't happen.

 

[black angel]

Another interesting question, once a respectable period had past, say five years after Stalin's death . . .

in various power struggles, why didn't a Soviet politician use skillful understatement to discredit Stalin, for example, an ally of Khrushchev might have done this in 1960?

But to the best of my knowledge this didn't happen.

Russia's painful struggle and glorious victory was and is the corner stone of Russian identity and the justification for basically every foreign policy choice they've made since 1945

as such attacking Stalin's leadership during the war.... is basically unthinkable, its why one of history's greatest monsters still has a strong fan base in the country he nearly destroyed and bathed in blood

Khrushchev is amazingly interesting really, to Stalin Khrushchev was a joke, he treated him like shit, but basically saw him as harmless, he was Stalin's pet, and was seen as such by his peers, little did they understand that Khrushchev may well have been the craftiest of all of Red Tsar's court

 

[TFSmith121]

You know, it would not be a complete deus ex machina

You know, it would not be a complete deus ex machina if Stalin simply dropped dead due to a stroke or something similar; he doesn't need to shoot himself.

If Stalin is incapacitated in the first week of the German invasion, is there enough self awareness within the various centers of power in the USSR in the summer of 1941 they can assemble some sort of unity committee and fight it out, probably with a mix of army, party, and industry leaders.

Best,