Spanish - American War (revisited)?

[unsunghero]

Just an idea: Can anyone think of how the Spanish might have a reasonable chance of winning the 1898 war with America? I imagine if they had kept up their navy, things would not have been so one - sided. Perhaps they purchase vessels from both German and British yards - as for the Army, maybe they ask the Germans to revamp it and arm it?

Besides getting a sizeable indemnity from the Americans, I don't think the Spanish would ask for any more - they wouldn't want the Yanks to stay mad.

 

[JLCook]

Spanish getting help?

Well, Their Army used the '98 Mauser Rifle, which came as no small surprise to AMericans armed with a 30-40 Krag-Jorgenson Rifle. In fact, it was the poor performance of the "Krag" that resulted in that famous AMerican copy of the M1898 Mauser, the M1903 Springfield.

The Germans were at least providing SOMETHING to Spain, although I would expect that those rifles were SOLD to Spain and not Given.

Warships, like perhaps those for a Navy, would have been posible. There were numerous yards in both the UK and in germany that liked to sell warships. I would wonder with what the Spanish government was planning to sue for money to pay for them with, however.

It wouldn't have taken too much in the way of purchasing a few battleships for Spain to have been able to defend against the USN of 1898, however. The USN didn't have more than about FOUR at the time of the Spanish war themselves.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The problem is that neither Spain nor anyone else really knew how crap the Spanish fleet was. I've read (and posted the link in the past) an American article where the author, a US Navy officer, is seriously worried about the prospects of a war with Spain, about how Spain has the strategic advantage and can keep a fleet in being, descend on the US coast at will etc. One of the problems is that cruisers and armoured cruisers were blurred at this time, as were armoured cruisers and battleships, so in the extreme some people counted biggish cruisers as battleships because they did the a is like b and b is like c connection.

Grey Wolf

 

[Earling]

The only reasonable chance they had was somehow getting some crushing naval victory over the US (Kind of the exact opposite to what happened) and then getting a beneficial treaty.

Revamping the army wont do much if the US controls the sea, all it will do is ensure it costs more US lives and time to achieve the same victory. Barring a major reversal of public oppinion the US would be able to grind them down.

All you need to do is somehow change the tactics of the Spanish Navy. Not too sure how you would go about doing it though.

 

[Xen]

Take what Grey Wolf said one step further. Lets say the Spanish Government begins to get close to one of the more dominant European powers, which one really doesnt matter but for arguments sake lets say Germany. The two governments agree on joint naval excersizes in the Pacific where the inefficiency of the Spanish fleet compared to a modern fleet is clearly plain for all to see.

Humiliated Spain turns to Germany to help, Germany agrees to exchange several modern ships of war to Spain in return for lets say the Philippines. Spain is reluctant to give up part of its Empire but knows it couldn't possibly defend it without a fleet and the Philippines are a long way off anyway. Germany expands its Empire, while Spain has a few small islands in the Pacific, Puerto Rico, and Cuba, as well as some territory in Africa. Spains fleet improves greatly, and continues its training in the Atlantic. If this doesnt butterfly away the Spanish-American War it could give Spain a fleet that could stop the Americans. In this scenario I find it likely to help pay for and maintain the fleet, Spain is likely to unload Cuba on the United States for hard cold cash. This does two things, it keeps the US from being recognized as a world power, and it keeps Spain as a world power. Perhaps Spain declares war on France and Britain during the Great War? Or something more interesting, Spain declares war on the allies thinking its still a great power, meanwhile the United States under a different leadership (perhaps TR) wants to prove it is a great power and joins one side or the other (most likely Britain) in 1915.

Or you could always say Spain is itching for a war with a weaker power to give its fleet a baptism by fire, and the United States appears to be the perfect sucker.

 

[unsunghero]

Thanks for the ideas, guys. I wonder, though, as a consequence of a victory over the United States (and the favorable peace settlement), might not Spain and the other Powers see the 'Monroe Doctrine' as unenforceable rhetoric? Maybe Spain might try to get back some land in South America and revive 'New Granada' or something. Or at least Hispaniola (Dominican Republic). I think Germany would be itching to get into the act if Spain could show down the Americans - maybe they purchase Guantanamo Bay from Spain and set up a first class colonial outpost/naval base. They could also 'strongly' indicate to Denmark that they would like to purchase the Virgin Islands (which Denmark sold to the US in 1917). As for the Americans in the Pacific, Spain might well decide to sell Guam and Wake.

I seriously doubt any Spanish government would declare war on either France or Britain at this point in history, considering how far Spain's fortunes have fallen. However, the Spanish could declare war on Germany - they're far enough away that the Germans cannot do anything to them directly, and the British/French alliance would be quite willing to sign away German colonies. So, Spain is promised Kamerun (which is right next door to Rio Muni anyway) and KWland. Two successful wars and a modest enlargement of their empire might be enough to prevent the leftist/socialist overthrow of Carlos XIII. Or if there is trouble, the Spanish veterans put down the insurrection and Franco still comes into power as Carlos' 'Strong Man.'

 

[David S Poepoe]

Thanks for the ideas, guys. I wonder, though, as a consequence of a victory over the United States (and the favorable peace settlement), might not Spain and the other Powers see the 'Monroe Doctrine' as unenforceable rhetoric? Maybe Spain might try to get back some land in South America and revive 'New Granada' or something. Or at least Hispaniola (Dominican Republic). I think Germany would be itching to get into the act if Spain could show down the Americans - maybe they purchase Guantanamo Bay from Spain and set up a first class colonial outpost/naval base. They could also 'strongly' indicate to Denmark that they would like to purchase the Virgin Islands (which Denmark sold to the US in 1917). As for the Americans in the Pacific, Spain might well decide to sell Guam and Wake.

Spain doesn't own Wake. It is already US territory.

 

[FederationX]

Spain doesn't own Wake. It is already US territory.

It was annexed in 1899, so who had it before that point?

 

[Xen]

Thanks for the ideas, guys. I wonder, though, as a consequence of a victory over the United States (and the favorable peace settlement), might not Spain and the other Powers see the 'Monroe Doctrine' as unenforceable rhetoric? Maybe Spain might try to get back some land in South America and revive 'New Granada' or something. Or at least Hispaniola (Dominican Republic). I think Germany would be itching to get into the act if Spain could show down the Americans - maybe they purchase Guantanamo Bay from Spain and set up a first class colonial outpost/naval base. They could also 'strongly' indicate to Denmark that they would like to purchase the Virgin Islands (which Denmark sold to the US in 1917). As for the Americans in the Pacific, Spain might well decide to sell Guam and Wake.

The Royal Navy really enforced alot of the Monroe Doctrine during its early history. Maybe if Britain were to suddenly develop some sort of Imperial designs on the America's an alliance of Europe's mightiest nations divide many American nations up among themselves. But that is crossing ASB territory, though a German Patagonia would be interesting.

 

[David S Poepoe]

It was annexed in 1899, so who had it before that point?

From one sites it appears that Wake Island has a dubious history of when it became US territory.

From http://www.richardsramblings.com/archives/2002/09/000164.html

"Despite its lack of agriculture or an economy, the island is rich in historical significance, warranting a lengthy and subsequently fascinating lesson on the history of Wake Atoll. According to Theodore Leverett's history of the island on the Flags of the World website, "Wake Island was first discovered by the Spaniard Álvaro de Mendana in 1586, who named it San Francisco and claimed it in the name of the King of Spain. This claim was internationally recognized, the atoll being viewed as worthless... In 1796 the Englishman Captain Samuel Wake of the merchant vessel Prince William Henry rediscovered it. He gave the atoll its present name, also carried by its largest island... On December 20, 1840, the USS Vincennes brought the explorer Charles Wilkes and the naturalist Titian Peale to the island where they conducted a series of surveys and eventually lent their names to the other two islands of the atoll... During the Spanish-American War, an American troop convoy bound for the Philippines (then owned by Spain) stopped off at Wake. Major General Francis V. Greene hoisted the Stars and Stripes, then with 45 stars, there on July 4, 1898... The subsequent peace treaty which ended the war [with Spain] transferred Wake to the United States."

For the record, the Treaty of Paris, ratified by officials from the United States of America and the Spanish Empire on December 10, 1898, relinquished all Spanish claim of sovereignty over and title to Cuba, Puerto Rico, the island of Guam in the Marianas, all islands in the West Indies, and all islands within approximately 116 degrees and 127 degrees longitude east of Greenwich near and including the Philippine Island archipelago. An amendment three years later added several additional islands located southwest of the island chain of Palawan that had been inadvertantly left off the original treaty. No other specific islands or locations of any kind were mentioned. Wake Island did not fall within the boundaries of the treaty as it is located at 166 degrees of longitude east of Greenwich. This finding directly contradicts the common opinion that Wake Island was included in the spoils of war between the United States and Spain as shared by such historians as Stanley K. Schultz, Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin, but the language of the treaty is indisputable."

I would almost put it acquisition in the same category as that of Midway, a sort of accidental acquisition.

I think much of the problem with how the war went for Spain rests directly with the domestic unrest that Spain was going through for the past 25-30 years.

 

[FederationX]

Good information, thank you.

 

[Melvin Loh]

Guys, what about if the Spaniards had launched a fullscale ground attack on the Americans landing at Daiquiri, or if the Rough Riders and Buffalo Soldiers and other American units attacking El Caney and San Juan had been totally wiped out by superior Spanish firepower ? I mean, the Spanish army in Cuba was quite numerically large (approx 100,000 IIRC) and as JLCoo's indicated, equipped with superior smallarms to the Americans- also don't forget their Maxim machineguns and Krupp field arty.

 

[Karlos]

It is pretty obvious that the spaniards are doomed if the US wins the naval side of the war, as anyone fighting in an island. If the USA keep the will to fight, they will eventually prevail, as Spain had no resources comparable at theirs. But even in this case, if Spain sells the Philipines to Germany to get a more powerfull fleet, it can have far-reaching consequences. When WWI brokes out, the japanese might invade the islands (remember they were on the allies side). A japanese Philpines in 1941 would certanly make a very different WWII: they wouldn't need to attack the USA to get the resources they need.

 

[Redbeard]

I can think of two PoD's:

1. France takes Spain's side and sends its battlefleet. USN is suddenly the underdog, and looses some battles and has the army cut off on Cuba. US government falls and a humiliating (for USA) armistice is concluded. GB is too heavily engaged in the Boer War and say an Indian rebellion to risk war with the French too, and are anyway quite satisfied with the "Yanks" getting a bloody nose. USA turns inwards in fanatical isolationism.

2. The Spanish navy is lead by a visionary person who see the possibilities in new weapons like torpedoes and TB's (and subs?). Spain buys a few squadrons abroad and have some placed in Havanna. They sortie against the USN battleline, which has no good defence against such small fast craft (ATB batteries came later) and three capital ships take hits and all sinks like a stone with heavy loss of life (very little subdivision). The US Government falls and an armistice is concluded in which USA withdraws and pays for damage to crops etc. USA turns inwards in reinforced isolationism.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Othniel]

I can think of two PoD's:

1. France takes Spain's side and sends its battlefleet. USN is suddenly the underdog, and looses some battles and has the army cut off on Cuba. US government falls and a humiliating (for USA) armistice is concluded. GB is too heavily engaged in the Boer War and say an Indian rebellion to risk war with the French too, and are anyway quite satisfied with the "Yanks" getting a bloody nose. USA turns inwards in fanatical isolationism.

That's what they were expecting to happen. I mean in their eyes this is a old world power player, the US was excepted to loose.

2. The Spanish navy is lead by a visionary person who see the possibilities in new weapons like torpedoes and TB's (and subs?). Spain buys a few squadrons abroad and have some placed in Havanna. They sortie against the USN battleline, which has no good defence against such small fast craft (ATB batteries came later) and three capital ships take hits and all sinks like a stone with heavy loss of life (very little subdivision). The US Government falls and an armistice is concluded in which USA withdraws and pays for damage to crops etc. USA turns inwards in reinforced isolationism.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

http://www.submarine-history.com/NOVAtwo.htm
That is on submarine history, and by the looks of it all of those building subs were over here on American soil. There is even a few invative designs that may of worked, but the results were mostly negative.

1885
American JOSIAH H. L. TUCK demonstrated "Peacemaker" – powered by a chemical (fireless) boiler; 1500 pounds of caustic soda provided five hours endurance. Tuck's inventing days ended when relatives – noting that he had squandered most of a significant fortune – had him committed to an asylum for the insane

 

[David S Poepoe]

I can think of two PoD's:

1. France takes Spain's side and sends its battlefleet. USN is suddenly the underdog, and looses some battles and has the army cut off on Cuba. US government falls and a humiliating (for USA) armistice is concluded. GB is too heavily engaged in the Boer War and say an Indian rebellion to risk war with the French too, and are anyway quite satisfied with the "Yanks" getting a bloody nose. USA turns inwards in fanatical isolationism.

What Boer War are you talking about? Thats in 1899. However, the Fashoda Crisis does happen in September 1898. So things could get alot worse for the French. I don't quite see them getting involved since they are more preoccupied with Germany. I don't quite see any 'fanatical isolationism' developing either, I think a defeat would lead to the opposite, tho not as far as any foreign entanglements via treaties.

I agree that a few more well placed Maxim guns would have made the war bloodier for the US, as long as there is a clear safe route from Tampa to Cuba, I suspect the US will keep pouring troops in.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Training new troops takes time. Green troops are only good to fill cementeries. Just imagine Colenso repeated in San Juan's Hill....

Unless the USN block Cuba, the Spanish can send reinforcements.

Why should France help Spain? To avoid Madrid joining Berlin? The danger of being surrounded between Spain and Germany could be a reason...

 

[Xen]

My only problem with the French taking Spains side is it endangers the United States to support the French enemy, Germany. However this could make an interesting First World War with the United States joining Germany.

What would Canada do? They could stay loyal to the United Kingdom and risk being invaded by the United States, or they could proclaim the Republic of Canada and maintain a strict neutrality during the war, perhaps being like the United States in OTL favoring one side heavily over the other.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

One of the more jingoistic American historians blasts the Spanish army officers, noting that had they concentrated the @5000 men available in the Cuban province where the Americans had landed, they would 'have dealt the Americans one of the bloodiest ripostes(?) in their history', adding that even the 300(!) men originally on site might have ripped the American forces as they pleased.

If true, and if the first landings ended with close to 20,000 Americans dead or POWs, this might be sufficient to put paid to any adventurism. Not to mention that without army pressure, the Spanish fleet would not have needed to sorty when they did.

 

[Othniel]

One of the more jingoistic American historians blasts the Spanish army officers, noting that had they concentrated the @5000 men available in the Cuban province where the Americans had landed, they would 'have dealt the Americans one of the bloodiest ripostes(?) in their history', adding that even the 300(!) men originally on site might have ripped the American forces as they pleased.

If true, and if the first landings ended with close to 20,000 Americans dead or POWs, this might be sufficient to put paid to any adventurism. Not to mention that without army pressure, the Spanish fleet would not have needed to sorty when they did.

Spain isn't winning this war without the support of our press good fellow.