The Japanese are really in a vice now, and it's only going to squeeze tighter as time goes on.
Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
The Thai (Siam) Army wasn't much by Western standards, size-wise, but in 1933 they interestingly bought 26 of the Vickers "Dragon IV" carrier-tractor (which was based on the Mark E Vickers light/medium tank), mounting a Mark II (LV) two-pounder pom-pom in a lightly armored tub. India and China also bought unarmed Dragon carriers, but Siam was the only commercial customer for what they called the Type 76 SPAAG...the British defense establishment having turned it down before Vickers attempted commercial sales because, in the British generals' view, there would not be a need for such mobile AA weaponry,
In OTL, some of these Type 76 SPAAGs survived WWII and a few are in museums or collections, or serving as "gate guards". Did any survive IITL?
My guess would be that British field force commanders, learning of British-built weaponry on the other side that could have been exceedingly useful as instead part of their own kit, might have had a few things to say through the chain of command about the quality of the relevant procurement decisions.
I could imagine British forces even offering to buy units from the Siamese for immediate British use...the British Army (with a little help from the RN) being relatively well equipped to service and supply the vehicles and their guns, in spite of their period of foreign ownership.
In OTL, some of these Type 76 SPAAGs survived WWII and a few are in museums or collections, or serving as "gate guards". Did any survive IITL?
My guess would be that British field force commanders, learning of British-built weaponry on the other side that could have been exceedingly useful as instead part of their own kit, might have had a few things to say through the chain of command about the quality of the relevant procurement decisions.
I could imagine British forces even offering to buy units from the Siamese for immediate British use...the British Army (with a little help from the RN) being relatively well equipped to service and supply the vehicles and their guns, in spite of their period of foreign ownership.
Did they? They got invaded IIRC, so it's not like they got much of a choice.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
And so the British advance through Thailand is slowly coming to an end for this season, though as has been stated in the post, Slim is determined that come the next monsoon season his forces will continue to fight on through the monsoon. Slim will use this pause to prepare for his next campaign, by improving his logistics, and by implementing a vigorous training program. Slim was a devotee of the mantra, train hard and fight easy , and IOTL was famous for the rigorous training he put his forces through. While he is overseeing this he will be making his plans for the future, and this will involve liaison with the command in Malaya, as eventually the two commands will become one. The Japanese are as they did throughout their tour of the East Asia, working hard to alienate the local population, and drive them into the arms of the colonial powers. The British however by simply paying the locals for their labour, not stealing their goods and food, but rather providing some food for sale. And basically respecting their women, though I don’t doubt that there will be plenty of commercial exchanges between troops and locals, given the relative wealth of the British Imperial forces in comparison to the locals. The Thais are in a very difficult position, while there are a number of the establishment who favour the Japanese, the majority of their people especially those who have been subjected to the Japanese and those who are now under British occupation, are rapidly becoming disillusioned with their leadership. The fact that the British have publicly stated that they have no intention to permanently occupy Thailand or change the boundaries, but just want to expel the Japanese and transit the country once they have done so. Is beginning to resonate with the majority, and they are increasingly becoming attuned to having the British around, and at a local level cooperating.
Meanwhile back in Burma the British are concentrating on two matters, improving the logistics and infrastructure for this campaign, while at the same time, doing the same for the Burma Road to China. Work on improving the road structure and its operation, plus the Port of Rangoon, and the rail link to the start of the road, will continue during the monsoon. Along with the improvements to the roads leading to Thailand and the airfields in Burma and Thailand, vital for the air support during the next phase of the conflict. Note if it hasn’t already been established, a mini air bridge between Burma and China able to carry high value cargo and people, should be on the too do list. While this will not provide a substantial boost to the amount of supplies reaching China, it should ensure that those items of high value are not diverted while in transit. The fact that China is not isolated as it was IOTL, reliant on a fragile air bridge for all its lend lease supplies , and is receiving a greater volume of supplies, is seriously going to change the course of the war in China. Not only will the Chinese army be better equipped, and hopefully better trained, but the American airforce in China will be larger than it was IOTL, and thus able to better support the Chinese forces. IOTL the 14th Airforce proved to be highly successful and was responsible for the distinction of Japanese air power in China by late 1944, given that ITTL it will have access to much greater resources. I would expect that by the beginning of 1944, it in combination with the British airforces in Indochina, will have air superiority over the region, and the deployment of B-29’s to China, which was so unsuccessful IOTL will be far more successful. And instead of being withdrawn to concentrate all B-29 operations out of the Mariana islands, a wing or two will be retained in China, thus presenting the Japanese with the problem of trying to defend against a two pronged attack.
Having a better equipped Chinese army, will reduce the forces available to Japan to engage the Western Allies in the Pacific and South East Asia. And thus make the job of the Western Allies much easier, however this brings with it a number of potential challenges and problems, both during the ongoing conflict and in the post war period. A much better performance by the Americans and British , could leave them in a position to conduct an invasion of the Japanese Homeland in early 45, long before the A-Bomb is ready, an invasion that would be extremely costly for all concerned. Should the Nationalists be more successful in China thanks to greater American material support, Chang might not lose the Mandate of Heaven in the eyes of the Chinese people, as he did IOTL. And thus the Chinese Civil War, might go on to be a much more dragged out event ITTL, than it was in ours. For the French the much earlier switch of sides by the majority of their Colonies, means that they might be able to raise colonial forces in Africa, which they can deploy in Indochina, which having suffered a much shorter Japanese occupation, and been liberated not handed over after the Japanese surrender. The subsequent internal conflict, might be reduced, and without major communist support from China over the Northern Border, the Nationalist forces are going to have a much more difficult job. For both the British and the Dutch, without the Japanese occupation of their SEA’s colonies there is going to be a much reduced chance of a major post war conflict. I would expect that there is none in Malaya, as the primary supporters were in the Chinese population, as the majority of the population being Malay and Muslim were anti communist, and not great supporters of the communist independence movement. Burma not having suffered occupation is still going to be a problem, as there will still be a movement for independence, but as it has little support outside of the Burmaman population and virtually none among the various hill tribes. It should be controllable for a number of years, while the British extract as much wealth from the nation as they can.
In a funny way the Americans could be the biggest losers ITTL, of the very different circumstances, pertaining to the overall situation. They are not seen as the guarantees of freedom that they were IOTL. By both the Australians and New Zealanders, who will retain a much closer relationship with the Old Country. Having had little to no involvement in the events in SEA, they will have very little say in the region, and little opportunity to become involved in the various moves towards independence that occur. Should the British decline to be involved in an invasion of Japan, “ we would love to help don’t you know old boy, but we can only do France or Japan, not both.” And such an invasion be a bloody and costly as it was projected to be, with a subsequent costly occupation, and their ongoing support of Chang. They are going to find that they are spending more people and money than they did, while the Old Colonial powers are in a better financial situation. And do not have the costs that they did IOTL, and are better able especially Britain to negotiate the terms of the post war settlement. I would expect that the post war world is going to be very different ITTL from the one we know from ours. Yes there will still be a Cold War, between the West an the Soviet Union, but the number of proxy wars that took place will be reduced, and the process of decolonisation should be smoother. Especially for the British, who had realised the the majority of their colonies were money sinks, and they were much better off without them. Though I expect the winds of change to blow slower and the process to take longer, as the British try to leave a more stable situation behind them.
RR.
Meanwhile back in Burma the British are concentrating on two matters, improving the logistics and infrastructure for this campaign, while at the same time, doing the same for the Burma Road to China. Work on improving the road structure and its operation, plus the Port of Rangoon, and the rail link to the start of the road, will continue during the monsoon. Along with the improvements to the roads leading to Thailand and the airfields in Burma and Thailand, vital for the air support during the next phase of the conflict. Note if it hasn’t already been established, a mini air bridge between Burma and China able to carry high value cargo and people, should be on the too do list. While this will not provide a substantial boost to the amount of supplies reaching China, it should ensure that those items of high value are not diverted while in transit. The fact that China is not isolated as it was IOTL, reliant on a fragile air bridge for all its lend lease supplies , and is receiving a greater volume of supplies, is seriously going to change the course of the war in China. Not only will the Chinese army be better equipped, and hopefully better trained, but the American airforce in China will be larger than it was IOTL, and thus able to better support the Chinese forces. IOTL the 14th Airforce proved to be highly successful and was responsible for the distinction of Japanese air power in China by late 1944, given that ITTL it will have access to much greater resources. I would expect that by the beginning of 1944, it in combination with the British airforces in Indochina, will have air superiority over the region, and the deployment of B-29’s to China, which was so unsuccessful IOTL will be far more successful. And instead of being withdrawn to concentrate all B-29 operations out of the Mariana islands, a wing or two will be retained in China, thus presenting the Japanese with the problem of trying to defend against a two pronged attack.
Having a better equipped Chinese army, will reduce the forces available to Japan to engage the Western Allies in the Pacific and South East Asia. And thus make the job of the Western Allies much easier, however this brings with it a number of potential challenges and problems, both during the ongoing conflict and in the post war period. A much better performance by the Americans and British , could leave them in a position to conduct an invasion of the Japanese Homeland in early 45, long before the A-Bomb is ready, an invasion that would be extremely costly for all concerned. Should the Nationalists be more successful in China thanks to greater American material support, Chang might not lose the Mandate of Heaven in the eyes of the Chinese people, as he did IOTL. And thus the Chinese Civil War, might go on to be a much more dragged out event ITTL, than it was in ours. For the French the much earlier switch of sides by the majority of their Colonies, means that they might be able to raise colonial forces in Africa, which they can deploy in Indochina, which having suffered a much shorter Japanese occupation, and been liberated not handed over after the Japanese surrender. The subsequent internal conflict, might be reduced, and without major communist support from China over the Northern Border, the Nationalist forces are going to have a much more difficult job. For both the British and the Dutch, without the Japanese occupation of their SEA’s colonies there is going to be a much reduced chance of a major post war conflict. I would expect that there is none in Malaya, as the primary supporters were in the Chinese population, as the majority of the population being Malay and Muslim were anti communist, and not great supporters of the communist independence movement. Burma not having suffered occupation is still going to be a problem, as there will still be a movement for independence, but as it has little support outside of the Burmaman population and virtually none among the various hill tribes. It should be controllable for a number of years, while the British extract as much wealth from the nation as they can.
In a funny way the Americans could be the biggest losers ITTL, of the very different circumstances, pertaining to the overall situation. They are not seen as the guarantees of freedom that they were IOTL. By both the Australians and New Zealanders, who will retain a much closer relationship with the Old Country. Having had little to no involvement in the events in SEA, they will have very little say in the region, and little opportunity to become involved in the various moves towards independence that occur. Should the British decline to be involved in an invasion of Japan, “ we would love to help don’t you know old boy, but we can only do France or Japan, not both.” And such an invasion be a bloody and costly as it was projected to be, with a subsequent costly occupation, and their ongoing support of Chang. They are going to find that they are spending more people and money than they did, while the Old Colonial powers are in a better financial situation. And do not have the costs that they did IOTL, and are better able especially Britain to negotiate the terms of the post war settlement. I would expect that the post war world is going to be very different ITTL from the one we know from ours. Yes there will still be a Cold War, between the West an the Soviet Union, but the number of proxy wars that took place will be reduced, and the process of decolonisation should be smoother. Especially for the British, who had realised the the majority of their colonies were money sinks, and they were much better off without them. Though I expect the winds of change to blow slower and the process to take longer, as the British try to leave a more stable situation behind them.
RR.
Given the way things are going, I wonder if Churchill might remain PM past 1945. I mean, looking at it, he's presided over a Britain that has been mostly trouncing the enemy (the stage for France was set before he became PM, so that loss isn't down to him, he'll argue), in North Africa, in Greece (Okay, they didn't beat the Germans, but they bled them white in the withdrawal, which was about as good as could be hoped for, given the relative sizes of the forces), and now in Malaya, somewhat in the DEI and Burma/Thailand. And their successes in Malaya and the DEI stand is sharp contrast to the Americans.
My thoughts are No but the Labour victory may not be as dramatic. The Beveridge Report will still come out and Labour will be ahead on social issues.
Opinion on Churchill himself may be more favourable but unless the Conservatives can be credible on the economy, healthcare and education they can’t win. The Lost decades of the 1920s and 1930s loom too large in consciousness.
?? The Japanese certainly deployed resources to attempt to defend against the China-based B29s. They didn't appear to think those missions were not a threat.
The lesser damage capability of bombers at the extreme outer limit of their range, and even then only by stripping out defensive armament and with fuel making up much of the payload that otherwise would have been bombs, isn't reasonably described as "unsuccessful". It was merely the beginning of a campaign that became more and more powerful as the range decreased.
The limitation of Japanese defenses against fully defensive-armed B29s was scarcity of Japanese defensive capabilities that could overpower those B29 defenses, at B29 altitudes. But because the B29s coming from Chengdu had far fewer defensive capabilities, the Japanese could utilize interceptors against those planes that were hopelessly ineffective against the much more heavily armed bombers coming from Pacific bases. So keeping Chengdu operations in fact would not stretch the Japanese defenses.
And, the US's reputation for infinite resources notwithstanding, there was a finite pool of experienced B29 crews. So keeping crews based at Chengdu instead of moving them to where they could be utilized more efficiently...and have a greater likelihood of survival over more missions, due to heavier defensive armament...would not have made sense.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Short answer no, long answer no way in hell, Winston failed to prepare for the upcoming election, had no policies other than trust me I am Winston. The Labour Party had established a unit that brought to the people a raft of reforms, and promised the forces that they would be brought home. Most service men were convinced that Winston would keep them in service for years, and had ambitions to pursue an active colonial policy, much as he did in the post WWI period with his commitment to defeating the Soviets in Russia. He refused to allow any discussion of what the Tory Parties policies would be, and totally failed to read the mood of the nation. A typical mistake was his attitude towards Universal Healthcare, Britain had had by the time of the outbreak of the war about 50% of the population covered by some very basic “free” healthcare, and there was a general consensus that some form of Universal Healthcare was needed. Especially among the middle classes who didn’t benefit from the system as was, the big question was what form this would take, and Labour had an answer, whereas the Tory’s didn’t. Much the same with the nationalisation of industry, there had been numerous reviews and reports during the inter war period recommending some form of government intervention and regulation of a number of industries, especially railways, coal and steel. Winston as were a number of the old guard Tory’s were opposed to this, and failed to realise that the majority were in favour, and so instead of offering a different plan, ie instead of a single National Coal Board, but setting up a number of Regional Coal Boards, he and the Old Guard said no. Had Winston not been so stubborn, and had he established a research group within the Tory Party, the Tory’s could if he had stood down before the election, and placed a younger man as its leader, while still failing to retain the government, suffered far less of a defeat.
RR.
If the supplies can get to officers and generals who can use it and not get sold by the various cronies and warlords when it gets to them, the Nationalist maybe in a better position but it will mainly depend on if the British, Commonwealth and US raps them on the knuckles if they find out they sold supplies and kit to keep the worst offenders from doing that. Also if their are Chinese formations in Burma as OTL, it would be better to equip and train them first where possible as well both to give a core of professionals and to also give Chiang a solid force well assuming he doesn't have a paranoid skit or Vinger Joe doesn't do something a bit silly.
Still though if the Nationalist can do better and are better equiped Mao will be in a greater degree of Trouble compared to OTL since the only thing they did in the war was the 100 divisions offensive which didn't do a lot and if it looks like his main rival is doing better then he will be forced to try and do more with his nodded resources which will have a major impact. Heck maybe Mao and his little communist cult will get an absolute thrashing enough so they are ether a none factor or we end up with a divided China situation.
Yeah....the question of whether Churchill would win the election after the war (obviously that scenario is a ASB one) has already been mentioned a few times in this thread before...including once that even included a variation of @Ramp-Rat response to the question....
to be fair, that time was just a few days before @JWilly48519 officially joined this website as a member...so there's that....
Well, a slightly heavy presence of the Allies forces that would survey the equipment situation could go a long way to help Chiang's position...
We will see, perhaps that the Soviets are occupied on their European front until at least 1944 (or once they touched the pre-1942 German border), but after that, it remains to be seen if they would be playing a more of a role in the Asian front...
Edit: One thing for sure, the politics of Asia-Pacific countries ITTL would be already be unrecognizable to outside observers IOTL just after the end of the year 1945...let alone 1950...
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maybe not I mean the the Soviets still have the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact and they will want to focus on the Germans because they are the Bigger threat and Hitler made it personal for Stalin as well it will be a pain in the ass to move stuff to Siberia.
Edit: though with the Nationalists getting closer to the WAllies and probably getting a lot of kit then Stalin may throw scraps Mao’s way though what he can will be limited given the fighting against the Axis.
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Stalin supported Chiang more until after the end of the war. Mao was going his own way and wouldn't toe the Moscow line and wanted to have him be the only person running the Chinese Communist Party and have their own doctrine. Having Chiang do better can end up costing Mao his position, maybe a plane crash going to Moscow to ask for more supplies?
Maybe, but I think he would be more concerned that he was getting closer to the Western Allies given they will more than likely be taking up the bulk of the supplying him more war material heck, India could throw quite a significant stock of small arms their way from the Ishapore arsenal as an example as well as what can be potentially ramped up to them as well.
Also, given that he needs to divert a good chunk of his production towards fighting the Germans and the other Axis Forces, he can't really do anything to counter it. That's why I think he would be sending table scraps to Mao, or trying to kill Chiang at the earliest available opportunity.
Even before the war Chiang and the KMT was supported by Stalin, and the Comintern because of that, over the CCP and Mao. They went so far as to allow the KMT to push the CCP and Mao out of southeast China and the CCP doing its long March without Soviet support. Even post war they were still supporting Chiang in some ways more than Mao up till the CCP started to drive the KMT out of China. Mao wasn't taking direction from Moscow and actively ignoring or doing what they wanted over what Stalin wanted them to do like the other Communist parties around the world.