Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
A lot of shells certainly will I imagine. I think the tanks themselves are too slow and heavy to get much off the ground.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
While we have yet to find out the full extent of the opening events of the round of the Japanese entry into the present conflict, outside Malaya. However the events so far have basically gone the way of the British, with the opening efforts of the Japanese not enjoying the success that they did IOTL. And every little failure is adding to the overall problem that the Japanese have, and will have some serious long term consequences. While the events at Kota Bhara have added a little amount of grit into the Japanese plans, the events on the Thailand border however have thrown a wrench into the Japanese plans. The British have been able to execute their Operation Matador plan to an extent that they were unable to IOTL. The Japanese have come across troops who have some experience, and unlike their normal opposition the Chinese, are well trained, well equipped, and reasonably well lead. For an Army that is used to its opponents mostly running away, lacking modern weapons, or having the communications or logistics that would enable them to make a stand. They have now encountered a foe that has the logistics, communications, weapons and leadership, that enable them to take a stand if they so choose. The Matilda tank is in comparison to any Japanese tank it might encounter equivalent to a Tiger II, impervious to any weapon that they have. Able to turn any Japanese tank into Swiss Cheese, at a thousand yards, and also impervious to virtually any other weapon that the Japanese can deploy.
Remember a Japanese tank that has been knocked out and chances are had its crew killed, is one that is out of action for the entire campaign. The Japanese do not have the facilities to effect major repairs, or the spare crews to man any repaired tanks. Where as unless a British tank has been totally destroyed, and is unable to be recovered, it will be brought back into action. Ether by the regiment’s own fitters, or by the base workshop, and a spare crew found to man it. Unlike the Philippines where the majority of the opposition haven’t as yet seen any action, large numbers of the British/Empire troops have, they are used to being attacked from the air, and from the ground, they will have been subjected to an artillery barrage. Those that have fought in East Africa, as has been alluded too, are wise to their enemy making use of alternative paths, in an attempt to outflank their positions. Unfortunately for the Japanese, the message going back to higher command is not, this was a bloody stupid idea, best we stop right now and rethink our plan. Rather it will be, yes the British are more of a problem than the Chinese, but thanks to the glorious efforts of our troops and their indomitable bravery, we have overcome their pathetic attempt to prevent us from achieving our aims, and we will soon have them on the run.
Can the Japanese repair the damage done to the road, by the British, of course they can. It is always amazing what enough men, and conscripted locals can do with some very simple tools, and ‘firm’ direction. And just how quickly they can achieve the task that they have been set by their overlords. Remember the majority of Britain’s canals and railways were built with just picks, shovels and wheelbarrows, and it wasn’t until the nineteen sixties that mechanical devices replaced humans on most building sites. However it will take time, and any troops set to this task will need time to recover from their efforts, not that they are likely to be given such time. And time is not a commodity that the Japanese have in abundance to spare, every day that they fall behind their time line in our reality. They increase their chances of being defeated in this reality, as the British Empire forces are becoming stronger and stronger, day by day. IOTL the Japanese got to Singapore, and had the will been there, they could have been pushed back and forced to go on the defensive. ITTL, not only do the Japanese face a stronger, better equipped and better trained opponent, the will and determination to resist, is built in. Unless the Japanese manage to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat, and somehow surround and eliminate a British devision, they are slowly losing, even though it doesn’t look like it right now.
RR.
Remember a Japanese tank that has been knocked out and chances are had its crew killed, is one that is out of action for the entire campaign. The Japanese do not have the facilities to effect major repairs, or the spare crews to man any repaired tanks. Where as unless a British tank has been totally destroyed, and is unable to be recovered, it will be brought back into action. Ether by the regiment’s own fitters, or by the base workshop, and a spare crew found to man it. Unlike the Philippines where the majority of the opposition haven’t as yet seen any action, large numbers of the British/Empire troops have, they are used to being attacked from the air, and from the ground, they will have been subjected to an artillery barrage. Those that have fought in East Africa, as has been alluded too, are wise to their enemy making use of alternative paths, in an attempt to outflank their positions. Unfortunately for the Japanese, the message going back to higher command is not, this was a bloody stupid idea, best we stop right now and rethink our plan. Rather it will be, yes the British are more of a problem than the Chinese, but thanks to the glorious efforts of our troops and their indomitable bravery, we have overcome their pathetic attempt to prevent us from achieving our aims, and we will soon have them on the run.
Can the Japanese repair the damage done to the road, by the British, of course they can. It is always amazing what enough men, and conscripted locals can do with some very simple tools, and ‘firm’ direction. And just how quickly they can achieve the task that they have been set by their overlords. Remember the majority of Britain’s canals and railways were built with just picks, shovels and wheelbarrows, and it wasn’t until the nineteen sixties that mechanical devices replaced humans on most building sites. However it will take time, and any troops set to this task will need time to recover from their efforts, not that they are likely to be given such time. And time is not a commodity that the Japanese have in abundance to spare, every day that they fall behind their time line in our reality. They increase their chances of being defeated in this reality, as the British Empire forces are becoming stronger and stronger, day by day. IOTL the Japanese got to Singapore, and had the will been there, they could have been pushed back and forced to go on the defensive. ITTL, not only do the Japanese face a stronger, better equipped and better trained opponent, the will and determination to resist, is built in. Unless the Japanese manage to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat, and somehow surround and eliminate a British devision, they are slowly losing, even though it doesn’t look like it right now.
RR.
I suspect the Japanese success OTL was cumulative, the first wave gets in and cause a bit of chaos, allowing the second wave to take advantage of the now disorganised defenders and take out some, while causing even more chaos down the line, etc. Here, the first wave has been serious degraded, if not altogether stopped, which should have deleterious effects on the follow-on waves.
Outright stopped? Probably not. But considering how close it actually was OTL when you can point at specific mistakes, they could have temporary stopped and derailed the Japanese plans before being forced back or even managed a "Hold until reinforced."
The latter's particularly unlikely, but the whole point is that the reason people blame the local commanders is because they didn't do the best they could do with what they had.
They didn't even do the best they, personally should have been capable of doing, but in places like the landings and OTL equivalent of that most recent operation it was still close despite all the mistakes.
So they get judged rather than the people back in Britain, because if they'd been just a little bit better things wouldn't have went the same way.
Quite possibly ended the same way in the long run, but a different path to walk there could have changed the war, especially with how little space for failure existed in the Japanese plans that went ahead OTL.
Derek Pullem
Donor
Also the collapse of the position in the north of Malaya occurred after Jitra which only happened because the Japanese overwhelmed the defences before they could be prepared. With a successful Operation Matador (or a "lite" version of it) then there are not going to be as many Japanese tanks in northern Malays, even assuming the position a Khota Baru is eventually forced. And this time the Empire has enough of its own armour to prevent the routs that happened IOTL.
So the Jitra position is thoroughly prepared and holds - in which case the Japanese only have "hail mary" options of landings further South under limited air cover and close to active Allied naval assets.
In this scenario it's difficult to see what they can do - 15th Army (invasion force for Burma) is available but the logistics to support it in Malaya across the sea is not. It may invade Burma as in OTL simply because it has no other good option!
Any invasion of Burma is going to run into a military led by Auchinleck, who is much more familiar with things there than Wavell was. I suspect any Japanese in Burma will get rather roughly handled.
Good start so far.
More 'friction' can be achieved by a successful sortie by the RN - even if it does not sink anything it would likely cause the IJN to scatter and withdraw transports - leading to further delay in any IJA build up
More 'friction' can be achieved by a successful sortie by the RN - even if it does not sink anything it would likely cause the IJN to scatter and withdraw transports - leading to further delay in any IJA build up
Derek Pullem
Donor
Unless they can hold Rangoon then it's going to be messy for the Empire forces too.
I wonder if the IJN would commit unescorted bombers to chasing the royal navy (knowing that's there is a carrier in theater).
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Any invasion of Burma, is predicated on the invasion of Malaya being successful, fail to take Malaya and Singapore, and you don’t have the forces you need to invade Burma. And the longer the Malayan campaign goes on, the longer the forces in Burma have to prepare, and get the act together. Plus the is the chance that reinforcements especially of aircraft can be sent to Burma. Had the AVG had the time to establish itself, acclimatise, and integrate with the British, it would have been far more effective than it was IOTL.
RR.
RR.
The problem they have (assuming roughly same forces etc) is that the IJN bomber squadrons had a single A6m squadron in FIC to cover them.
Their task was to cover the landing zones and freighters.
If they are instead escorting bombers which operated in groups of 18 or so then they are going to be very thinly spread and the freighters are going to be more vulnerable to air attacks as a result.
And being thinly spread how effective are they going to be in protecting said bombers?
No IOTL there was the possibility of British air cover but the Japanese bombers did not make use of any escorts.
So it’s unlikely that there would be any change here and the A6m squadron will still focus on covering the troop ships etc
Derek Pullem
Donor
It's more that if you are still fighting in Malaya then the ability to sustain a campaign in Burma is questionable. 15th Army can attack as per OTL and threaten Rangoon. I wouldn't like to be in their shoes if they are asked to go much further than that without additional support from 25th Army (or indeed from the invasion forces assigned to DEI).
Certainly getting past the Irrawaddy for the Japanese will be tough - Empire will seek to hold the oil facilities at Yenanguang intact this time around.
Look More Closely Later
Gone Fishin'
Original timeline Imperial Japanese invasion of Burma started in December 1941, I think, whilst the Malaya campaign was still ongoing; but the Imperial Japanese got reinforcements from Malaya and Singapore which helped them wrap things up.
Edit:
Ninja'ed by Derek Pullem.
I keep hoping some very pissed off call colonials bodge together some cannister rounds for the 2-pounders.
OTL Australia manufactured guns, so I'm sure they could manage some ammunition.
Undoubtedly they could produce ammunition even several thousand rounds but to be useful it needs at least 10s if not 100s of thousands of rounds.