Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)

[KingSweden24]

Is the split on the left in Europe mainly affecting the hard-left syndies and socialists, or is some of the moderate left (social democrats, democratic socialists) also affected?

Bit of both, in that it's driving more of a hard wedge between them, and earlier (there were still plenty of social democrats/demsocs well into the 1920s who were not as sanguine as they perhaps should have been about what the Bolsheviks were actually like, after all, though nowhere near the problem that traditional rightists had with fascism)

Probably a round of exomunications and political u turn, they don't look like the type that will approve or even tollerate what Sturzo is doing

This actually makes me wonder how realistic a De Lai Papacy would be, even after four years of Serafini; maybe I just go with my original instinct and rotate Rafael Merry de Val in ten years earlier than planned. A liberum veto over De Lai by the House of Savoy would be... something. Maybe making the 1918 conclave part of the path to the CEW?

 

[KingSweden24]

"...born Christmas Day 1845; with his death at the age of 71, he had ruled Greece continuously for nearly fifty-five years. Indeed, George had, just a few years earlier as he celebrated his golden jubilee in Athens, openly mused about abdicating and retiring for the pleasures and comfort on Mon Repos on Corfu, his beloved summer retreat while letting his successor remain at the royal residence at Tatoi. He had eventually been dissuaded from such a move by not only his son and heir but other sovereigns, who were as early as his deliberations on the matter in 1913 uncomfortable with the rising tide of anti-monarchism across Europe and the fears of a precedence of popular monarchs abdicating was strongly opposed by those who were considerably less well-liked by their subjects; the crisis in Monaco, followed by the Portuguese debacle involving King Carlos II, had put paid to such ideas.

As such, George died a well-regarded figure by the Greek people, who in his half-century had become Europe's dean of royalty and had helped guide Greece somewhat closer to some sense of modernity and "European-ness" rather than the unstable Balkan backwater it had been upon his accession. Nonetheless, the Greece inherited by his son Constantine I was not without its problems. The nationalist cause of the Megali Idea - the Great Idea, that of unifying all Greek people under the Hellenic flag - had never quite died even after the fizzling conclusion of the Cretan Crisis in 1903 had nearly seen Greece attacked by a resurgent Ottoman Empire, avoided only by Great Power intervention and Cretan agitator Eleftherios Venizelos backing down. [1] As much as half of the population (particularly women) were functionally or actually illiterate, an improvement from the three-fourths half a century earlier but hardly the massive gains in literacy seen elsewhere in Europe and the world, and its army was small and underpaid, even as the Hellenic Navy was buffeted by ship purchases from overseas. The country was still largely rural, highly poor, and experienced a rate of outmigration - particularly to the United States, Canada, and increasingly Argentina and Australia - on par or higher than countries like Italy, Serbia, and Poland.

Constantine thus took the throne under an enormous amount of pressure, in no small part due to his historically significant and auspicious name, to continue pressing Greece ahead into the 20th century and in the soft afterglow of his popular father's death, and public excitement over the delivery of long-delayed naval vessels starting in April of 1918, used his honeymoon period as best he could. Unlike his constitutionalist father, Constantine was fairly dismissive of the Hellenic Parliament and viewed the growing popularity of men like Venizelos; indeed, one of his first moves was to call for snap elections that his friend and ally, Prime Minister Dimitrios Gounaris, would win an even larger majority in. This suited Constantine's purposes well; Gounaris had abandoned the modernizing reformism of his mentor Theotokis, dead the January before, for a more robust, national conservative ideology that supported a strong monarchy, strong military, and strong Orthodox Church, three things he was unconvinced Venizelist liberal nationalism could deliver. Between Gounaris and the ambitious young Chief of the Army Staff, Ioannis Metaxas, Constantine had two crucial supporters in his project to realign Greek politics around the monarchy and in time a more corporatist economic policy.

This was, in and of itself, something of a foreign policy decision - the new stance by Constantine essentially abandoned Anglophile free trade in favor of protectionism and a "strong Greece," with the country by late 1918 firmly Italophile in particular while mimicking German military reforms. Ironically, the only reason that Greece would not join the Central European War was the sense that neither Germany nor Italy would commit to supporting Greek actions against the Ottomans whilst otherwise occupied with France and Austria, and thus Greek neutrality was the best position to continue strengthening the state for what Constantine and, especially Metaxas saw as an inevitable conflagration in the Balkans. The drift of the Greek government towards Rome would, in a few short years, go from subtle to overt - but not in time for Greece to be dragged in against the Iron Triangle, at least not formally..."

- Path of Darkness: Europe's Illiberal Hour

[1] The Etnarki may be a national hero to many Greeks, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that during the 1910s he was the cause of a whole host of problems in Greece that would come back to bite them decades later.

 

[5000 Cows]

Maybe making the 1918 conclave part of the path to the CEW?

I like this idea and the intrigue that it would add to the build up.

 

[boredviewer1234]

While I know Greece did for a long period of time regard itself as the enemy of the Ottoman empire and aimed to take it's most important land, it's always a bit jarring to see them willing to try and be David versus Goliath specially when Goliath's been having a couple of good years.

Though, I do wonder how it will go, the Ottoman empire has changed and while I do think their tunnel vision on the Balkans will have costs they have spent decades trying to build it up, a lot of people have migrated and a combination of warfare getting ever more advanced and general public opinion mattering ever more I think Greece attempting to take land would be a pandora's box.

Both because this is the day and age where the massacres and ethnic cleansing would make peace a lot harder to establish as the populace demands vengeance and retaliation like air raids is becoming a thing.

 

[Dragonboy]

@KingSweden24 ! Amazing work as always

 

[galileo-034]

I guess that a Kingdom of Greece restricted to its old borders, ruled by Constantine, and without Venizelos and the National Schism, will mean a very, very different 20th century for Greece. Though I'm not sure how long Constantine will stick around. If his health is as bad as OTL, his reign won't last much.

Also, I'm not sure how far would Greece can be actually considered Italophile. Sure Constantine by inclination would be tempted to side closer to Germany and Italy, but I understand Greece's anglophilia was deeper rooted than that. How much the Cretan crisis and the weaker British position in the Eastern Mediterranean due to the French takeover of Suez canal and Turkish victory in the 1870s alters that is subject to debate, but perhaps @Lascaris could answer that point.

What of the relations between Russia and Greece though ?

 

[naraht]

Was musing just how much information we eould get from Greece and Cyprus separately being in the Asian Cup. (Doesn't matter the sport).

 

[KingSweden24]

I like this idea and the intrigue that it would add to the build up.

Added to notes

While I know Greece did for a long period of time regard itself as the enemy of the Ottoman empire and aimed to take it's most important land, it's always a bit jarring to see them willing to try and be David versus Goliath specially when Goliath's been having a couple of good years.

Though, I do wonder how it will go, the Ottoman empire has changed and while I do think their tunnel vision on the Balkans will have costs they have spent decades trying to build it up, a lot of people have migrated and a combination of warfare getting ever more advanced and general public opinion mattering ever more I think Greece attempting to take land would be a pandora's box.

Both because this is the day and age where the massacres and ethnic cleansing would make peace a lot harder to establish as the populace demands vengeance and retaliation like air raids is becoming a thing.

Yeah, nothing good would come of it. Of course the lack of Venizelos and his endless ambitions cabin what Greece could reasonably aim for

I guess that a Kingdom of Greece restricted to its old borders, ruled by Constantine, and without Venizelos and the National Schism, will mean a very, very different 20th century for Greece. Though I'm not sure how long Constantine will stick around. If his health is as bad as OTL, his reign won't last much.

Also, I'm not sure how far would Greece can be actually considered Italophile. Sure Constantine by inclination would be tempted to side closer to Germany and Italy, but I understand Greece's anglophilia was deeper rooted than that. How much the Cretan crisis and the weaker British position in the Eastern Mediterranean due to the French takeover of Suez canal and Turkish victory in the 1870s alters that is subject to debate, but perhaps @Lascaris could answer that point.

What of the relations between Russia and Greece though ?

Worth pointing out that this isn’t even pre-1912 Greece, but rather pre-1878 Greece, borders-wise. So the vast majority of Greeks live outside of Greece but the actual Kingdom itself lacks even Thessaly! That puts a hard cap on the territorial ambitions it could reasonably harbor (with the exception of, say, Crete). Macedonia ITTL is probably much more Bulgarian (both Orthodox and Muslim) and more Turkish, so it’s really Greek Epirus after Thessaly that’s the most important irredenta and helps build a more defensible frontier if it ever gets to that.

Constantine will die more or less on schedule, so he has a short reign and pretty brief impact on Greek history.

It’s a great point that Anglophilia extends all the way back to the Greek Revolution of the 1820s - so this is more of a shift towards Germany/Italy rather than away from Britain, if that makes sense. Britain’s inability to force Crete for Greece is definitely part of that calculation of course, and I’d be curious to hear what @Lascaris thinks, too.

Greek-Russian relations are, as always, quite warm. Brothers of the Oikumenos and all, etc

 

[Lascaris]

Added to notes

Yeah, nothing good would come of it. Of course the lack of Venizelos and his endless ambitions cabin what Greece could reasonably aim for

This if I may so note is a bit shallow view of Venizelos. To very roughly quote Travlos from Salvation and Catastrophe the first joint study by Greek and Turkish scholars on the Asia Minor war, Venizelos political coalition was an intersection of middle class in the free kingdom, diaspora Greeks and Ottoman Greeks. As such it had a vested interest in the survival and well being of Ottoman Greeks not least because the diaspora Greeks and free kingdom middle classes made a fair bit of their profits from trade and investment in the Ottoman empire run by Ottoman Greeks (and vice versa).

So the obvious question here is, how is the TTL Ottoman empire dealing with its Greek populations? Still second class citizens but otherwise mostly left alone to their own devices (What Greeks were mostly experiencing under Abdul Hamid)? Fully equal? In danger of getting ethnic cleansed and massacred (say hi to CUP and the three pashas)? What Venizelos in particular and Greece in general would be doing very much depends on this. The so called "Eastern Federation", alliance with the Ottomans and even a dual Greek-Turkish monarchy were all seriously considered at the time. If the Ottoman Greeks are getting full equality for real the policy of the free kingdom will be also gravitating towards accomodation with Constantinople. And this very much includes Venizelos.

Minor note, Venizelos while born in Crete had Greek citizenship. That Crete is still Ottoman does not mean he canot be a politician in Greece.

Worth pointing out that this isn’t even pre-1912 Greece, but rather pre-1878 Greece, borders-wise. So the vast majority of Greeks live outside of Greece but the actual Kingdom itself lacks even Thessaly!

Yes we know the TL is a dystopia from the moment the Confederates won.

That puts a hard cap on the territorial ambitions it could reasonably harbor (with the exception of, say, Crete). Macedonia ITTL is probably much more Bulgarian (both Orthodox and Muslim)

"Muslim Bulgarian" in this era, sure you have largish Muslim populations that speak Bulgarian dialects. This does not mean they also usually identify as Bulgarian. Just like Ireland religion tends to trounce language in the Ottoman Balkans when it comes to self identification.

and more Turkish, so it’s really Greek Epirus after Thessaly that’s the most important irredenta and helps build a more defensible frontier if it ever gets to that.

Thessaly, Epirus, Crete and of course the Aegean islands and Cyprus.

Constantine will die more or less on schedule, so he has a short reign and pretty brief impact on Greek history.

TTL he is lucky, short of in that his pro-German tendencies, assuming of course he married his Prussian bride and did not end up studying in Paris, are not antithetical to his country's interests and geography.

It’s a great point that Anglophilia extends all the way back to the Greek Revolution of the 1820s - so this is more of a shift towards Germany/Italy rather than away from Britain, if that makes sense. Britain’s inability to force Crete for Greece is definitely part of that calculation of course, and I’d be curious to hear what @Lascaris thinks, too.

Closer relations with Germany or for that matter Italy are not in opposition to close relations with Britain. Quite the opposite arguably, with France firmly pro-Ottoman for the past two generations. If anything TTL for Venizelos in Athens the news of the Anglo-German deals would be excellent ones, Greece's two main potential allies are coming together,what is not to like? Arguably Greece was bringing in German military missions in place of the French ones to organize its army, and the Germans get the lion's share of arms orders. The navy is still getting either a British mission of if the British for some reason were not forthcoming with one an American one (OTL they did try yo get a US training mission around 1904 or so, don't recall exact date)

Greek-Russian relations are, as always, quite warm. Brothers of the Oikumenos and all, etc

Are they? OTL particularly after 1870 they were not all that warm. Greece wasn't neutral despite strong Russian pressure in 1878 by accident. Panslavism was being thought of as the big and primary danger which meant Russia and her support for Bulgaria.

 

[KingSweden24]

"...sharp drop in international wool prices in 1917 alarmed Massey in particular, due to the importance of sheep to not just Australia generally, but his own New Zealand specifically. The tensions within the Reform-Liberal coalition were by then utterly untenable, and the "station fellas" being in charge began to badly grate at the more mercantile Liberal chieftains who depended enormously on foreign trade through the harbors of Sydney and Melbourne. The final straw was Cook's remarks at a gala hosted by the Bank of Sydney on September 12, 1917: "We cannot crucify the whole of Australia upon a cross of wool, nor stab her in the stomach with a spear made of sheep's bone." Little wonder, then, that Liberals remain an afterthought in New Zealand even today.

The hugely devout Massey was appalled, and let Cook know as much; he immediately put to the floor the Protection Act, which would raise tariffs on a number of goods to protect nascent Australian industries as the wool industry hit a deep trough and unemployment spiked. Massey assumed that Hughes would support this endeavor, and not without reason; Hughes had a protectionist streak, and indeed just over a year later would craft his own protectionist policy which would come to shape Australian economics for the next decade. As such, he scheduled for September 28 a vote on the Protection Act, crucially without privately feeling out Hughes first, though Massey would maintain even on his deathbed in 1925 that he had vague "assurances" on a vote.

Hughes had other ideas. It was of course the "rapacious bankers" whom Cook represented that he really reserved much of his ire for, but Hughes did not particularly care for Massey, either, in part because he was a Kiwi and in part because he viewed Australia's laborers and smallholder farmers as naturally partnered constituencies against the oligarchy; as such, he thought that Massey's contempt for organized labor was a betrayal of Reform's natural base in favor of huge landowners who owned the sprawling stations [1] and were responsible for the horrid labor conditions on many of them. Massey was better than Cook, perhaps, but only barely, and Hughes would never rescue a political rival for free. Consequently, he publicly demurred on his thoughts on the Protection Act; when there was no deal on the offing behind the scenes, on September 28 he voted against it, along with all but two Labor MPs and every Liberal. Reform was defeated and Massey tendered his resignation to the Governor-General immediately.

Ferguson called Hughes to Government House as he was having afternoon tea looking out over the Tasman Sea to offer him the Premiership once again, asking if he could reasonably form a government - Labor, just as it had in May 1916, still had the most MPs, though far short of a majority. Hughes accepted the offer but also advised that a dissolution of Parliament would be necessary for him to properly form a government after the fractious sixteen-month Massey ministry, and he expressed concerns further to Ferguson about what could come after an election where Labor once again fell short of a majority. A confidence vote was not a constitutional crisis, after all, but a Westminster system was not designed to have three blocs of roughly equal representation at one another's throats, and New Zealand - where Massey even to this day is revered as one of the state's greatest men - had taken grievous offense, to the point that there were some very quiet and isolated murmurs about exiting the Commonwealth to become its own Dominion, threatening Federation less than two decades in. Hughes wanted a mandate to confidently attack the political issues engulfing Australia of the day and also address the deepening economic crisis late in 1917.

He would get it. Ferguson, much as he often disagreed with Hughes and found him grating and bombastic, agreed with the Little Welshman's assessment and called for elections due in mid-November. Australia delivered Labor a landslide, picking up seventeen seats to earn 50 seats in the lower House while Reform slid back to 25 seats and the Liberals collapsed to 18, prompting Cook's immediate retirement from federal politics in embarrassment. It would be the first of three consecutive Labor majorities won by Hughes, and as such 1917 is often viewed just as crucially as 1910 for the road to Labor dominance - and this time, Hughes had done all on his own..."

- The Little Welshman: Billy Hughes and the Founding of Australia's Labor Dynasty

[1] For those unfamiliar, "station" is an Australian term for a massive farm or ranch, usually one for sheep

 

[naraht]

Looking at Federal Holidays today, I'm wondering how they are different for the USA iTTL. I'm pretty sure that November 11th isn't a holiday. But the primary question is whether there are holidays related to the GAW, and more specifically, is May 5th a Federal Holiday. Note, even if it is, it would be a complete insult having the CSA have it as a federal holiday (by the treaty of Mt. Vernon), but then putting insults to the CSA in the treaty of Mount Vernon wouldn't have bothered anyone in the US.

 

[Dragonboy]

@KingSweden24 ! great work as always!

 

[KingSweden24]

This if I may so note is a bit shallow view of Venizelos. To very roughly quote Travlos from Salvation and Catastrophe the first joint study by Greek and Turkish scholars on the Asia Minor war, Venizelos political coalition was an intersection of middle class in the free kingdom, diaspora Greeks and Ottoman Greeks. As such it had a vested interest in the survival and well being of Ottoman Greeks not least because the diaspora Greeks and free kingdom middle classes made a fair bit of their profits from trade and investment in the Ottoman empire run by Ottoman Greeks (and vice versa).

So the obvious question here is, how is the TTL Ottoman empire dealing with its Greek populations? Still second class citizens but otherwise mostly left alone to their own devices (What Greeks were mostly experiencing under Abdul Hamid)? Fully equal? In danger of getting ethnic cleansed and massacred (say hi to CUP and the three pashas)? What Venizelos in particular and Greece in general would be doing very much depends on this. The so called "Eastern Federation", alliance with the Ottomans and even a dual Greek-Turkish monarchy were all seriously considered at the time. If the Ottoman Greeks are getting full equality for real the policy of the free kingdom will be also gravitating towards accomodation with Constantinople. And this very much includes Venizelos.

Minor note, Venizelos while born in Crete had Greek citizenship. That Crete is still Ottoman does not mean he canot be a politician in Greece.


Yes we know the TL is a dystopia from the moment the Confederates won.

"Muslim Bulgarian" in this era, sure you have largish Muslim populations that speak Bulgarian dialects. This does not mean they also usually identify as Bulgarian. Just like Ireland religion tends to trounce language in the Ottoman Balkans when it comes to self identification.

Thessaly, Epirus, Crete and of course the Aegean islands and Cyprus.

TTL he is lucky, short of in that his pro-German tendencies, assuming of course he married his Prussian bride and did not end up studying in Paris, are not antithetical to his country's interests and geography.

Closer relations with Germany or for that matter Italy are not in opposition to close relations with Britain. Quite the opposite arguably, with France firmly pro-Ottoman for the past two generations. If anything TTL for Venizelos in Athens the news of the Anglo-German deals would be excellent ones, Greece's two main potential allies are coming together,what is not to like? Arguably Greece was bringing in German military missions in place of the French ones to organize its army, and the Germans get the lion's share of arms orders. The navy is still getting either a British mission of if the British for some reason were not forthcoming with one an American one (OTL they did try yo get a US training mission around 1904 or so, don't recall exact date)


Are they? OTL particularly after 1870 they were not all that warm. Greece wasn't neutral despite strong Russian pressure in 1878 by accident. Panslavism was being thought of as the big and primary danger which meant Russia and her support for Bulgaria.

Thanks for this post! Lot of good points.

I’d say the Otto-Greek experience is better than AbdulHamid, but still not quite at full equality.

Duly noted in Ottoman Balkans and religiosity, regardless of language

I’d add to your excellent point that Germany and Britain get on fine, though far off from being allied, so Greece is more adding Germany/Italy to her corner rather than subtracting Britain. It may even be seen as a boon by Britain for Greece to have stronger friends in her neighborhood, maybe? And Britain 100% is supplying naval missions, though idk about the Americans. If they did at one point, GAW likely put paid to that for some time.

Looking at Federal Holidays today, I'm wondering how they are different for the USA iTTL. I'm pretty sure that November 11th isn't a holiday. But the primary question is whether there are holidays related to the GAW, and more specifically, is May 5th a Federal Holiday. Note, even if it is, it would be a complete insult having the CSA have it as a federal holiday (by the treaty of Mt. Vernon), but then putting insults to the CSA in the treaty of Mount Vernon wouldn't have bothered anyone in the US.

November 11th would absolutely be a holiday ITTL, indeed it’s probably an even bigger one, like what you see in Commonwealth countries

 

[naraht]

Thanks for this post! Lot of good points.

I’d say the Otto-Greek experience is better than AbdulHamid, but still not quite at full equality.

Duly noted in Ottoman Balkans and religiosity, regardless of language

I’d add to your excellent point that Germany and Britain get on fine, though far off from being allied, so Greece is more adding Germany/Italy to her corner rather than subtracting Britain. It may even be seen as a boon by Britain for Greece to have stronger friends in her neighborhood, maybe? And Britain 100% is supplying naval missions, though idk about the Americans. If they did at one point, GAW likely put paid to that for some time.

November 11th would absolutely be a holiday ITTL, indeed it’s probably an even bigger one, like what you see in Commonwealth countries

What do you have planned happening on November 11th? As far as I know that date didn't have any special meaning until 1918 with the end of WWI.

 

[KingSweden24]

What do you have planned happening on November 11th? As far as I know that date didn't have any special meaning until 1918 with the end of WWI.

Well, it’s still armistice day ITTL at the end of the GAW.

So an irrelevant day in the UK, def not one in the US

 

[naraht]

Well, it’s still armistice day ITTL at the end of the GAW.

So an irrelevant day in the UK, def not one in the US

Ah. From the posting on the 1916 presidential election.

Despite rumors [1] that Hughes would resign to allow Root to take the Presidency early to avoid a wartime transition, the Confederacy sued for peace four days later - November 11, now celebrated as Victory Day - and Root would preside over the peace negotiations as his inauguration approached, at which point, at 72 years old, he became the oldest President at the time of his inauguration, a record that would stand for sixteen years.

So the question is whether Victory day is a US Federal Holiday?

Also from this, who is the older person elected in the 1932 election, Pershing?

 

[KingSweden24]

Ah. From the posting on the 1916 presidential election.

Despite rumors [1] that Hughes would resign to allow Root to take the Presidency early to avoid a wartime transition, the Confederacy sued for peace four days later - November 11, now celebrated as Victory Day - and Root would preside over the peace negotiations as his inauguration approached, at which point, at 72 years old, he became the oldest President at the time of his inauguration, a record that would stand for sixteen years.

So the question is whether Victory day is a US Federal Holiday?

Also from this, who is the older person elected in the 1932 election, Pershing?

Yes and yes

I haven’t quite figured out what the other federal holidays differing from OTL are, other than that MLK Day, for obvious reason, isn’t one

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Yes and yes

I haven’t quite figured out what the other federal holidays differing from OTL are, other than that MLK Day, for obvious reason, isn’t one

Could do a version of Juneteenth - the day the CSA abolished slavery could be an American holiday. Would be a big fuck you to the CSA which I'm sure is a fun bonus to the powers that be in the USA.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Yes and yes

I haven’t quite figured out what the other federal holidays differing from OTL are, other than that MLK Day, for obvious reason, isn’t one

Would there be a day of remembrance surrounding Washington's fall/sack of the city.

 

[5000 Cows]

Could do a version of Juneteenth - the day the CSA abolished slavery could be an American holiday. Would be a big fuck you to the CSA which I'm sure is a fun bonus to the powers that be in the USA.

Seconded.