My goal was to create a (relatively) plausible situation which could lead to a confrontation between a state (or a group of states, in this case) and the United States federal government in the 1990s. Hopefully, I have achieved a story which is at least possible, if not plausible or likely. So, with that said, here we go...
First, I began by forming the conclusion that the best possible time for a rebellion/civil war/confrontation/etc. is the period between 1992 and 1995. Why? Consider the civil strife of the period (Waco, L.A., OK City, Ruby Ridge, etc.); consider the third party success of Ross Perot; and, consider the radical political shift from a Republican government to a Democratic one. So, the time period is nailed down.
Second, I need to choose the states. Well, I figured the best choice would be to choose a combination of the homes of OTL’s militia movements, and the vote percentage for Ross Perot. That leaves us with Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, (eastern) Washington, and (eastern) Oregon. For the sake of convenience, I’m going to call this group the Mountain ALLiance (or MALL; I don’t want to have to rewrite the list again). Now, every alliance needs a leader. For this, I’m going to simply look at a map of the US, and the states of the MALL, and pick the one in the geographic center. That’d be Idaho. So, we have the location nailed down.
Now we need a reason for a conflict. This is by far the most difficult aspect. However, we do have several things we could use. So, I’m going to go with a more organized, larger militia movement. In order to get a larger, better organized militia movement we’re going to need more perceived government oppression. That’s going to require, for these radical right groups, a more liberal (and, therefore, generally larger) government. In other words, we need a different President. I think I have a solution for that, but I’ll hold off for a little later. Now, let’s have them, say, break the siege of Waco. That just may provide the spark I need. Now, before you argue, bare with me for awhile.
Okay, now that we’ve got the bare facts covered, I’ll get into a (somewhat) plausible story...
The year is 1969. This is our POD. On Chappaquiddick Island, Massachusetts, a young Senator Edward Kennedy is driving drunk. He, however, concentrates harder going over the bridge. He instead hits a tree a quarter-mile down the road. Mary Jo Kopechne does not die and is instead just injured, but, because Kennedy was driving drunk, he is temporarily out of the running for the Presidential nomination. He still loses his status as the Majority Whip.
Now, half way around the world, three young men come together for the first time on a military base outside of Nha Trang. Douglas Latham, Nathan Rhodes, and James Roberts, are all members of the U.S. Army and are all from the state of Idaho. In OTL, say, two of them are killed and one loses a leg. In this ATL, not one is even injured. However, Roberts, catches a soldier attempting to “frag” his officer, Nathan Rhodes, and beats the soldier the half to death. Roberts, despite saving the officers life, Roberts is dishonorably discharged in 1971, the same year Rhodes and Latham return home. Rhodes, owing his life to Roberts, vows he will go to any length to help the young man. Upon returning to America, the three men are stunned by the treatment afforded them by the American populace and blame their own government for: A) treating Roberts wrongly, and B) losing the war.
The next decade and a half go almost identically as in OTL for the nation as a whole. For the three men, however, life deals them a series of surprising choices. Douglas Latham, who served with Rhodes throughout the war and is dedicated to the man to the extreme, is of the lower class. He comes home, without an education, and in a cruel twist of fate, the government screws him. He never receives the money to go to college, so he decides to stay in the military (or, at least, the Idaho National Guard). As a full time job, Latham is employed by Rhodes, whose father, a banker, left him truckloads of money. Rhodes happens to have bought a single gun store, which over the two decades, Rhodes builds into one of the largest companies in the state of Idaho, with chains in nearly every city/town with a population over 20,000, as well as several in neighboring states. Rhodes, by the way, turns out to be an excellent orator and politician, in general.
Meanwhile, our friend James Roberts, screwed royally by the U.S. government, creates his own militia organization. Unlike others, however, Roberts is determined to keep his group small. He demands military excellence from all the militiamen. Each unit of the American Liberation Front (ALF) is composed of about 20 men, and is, generally, led by a former regular soldier. By 1990, the ALF is a well-disciplined “ghost army” of about 700 men, mainly from Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. The ALF, surprise, surprise, is well-armed – by weapons from the Rhodes chain of gun stores.
Now, the year is 1991, and two elections are heating up. The first is the Presidential election of 1992. The candidates are: George Bush (R), Ross Perot (Reform), and – Edward Kennedy (D). In 1992, Kennedy will edge by in a squeaker, with Perot splitting the Republican vote. In Idaho, the race for the Governor’s office heats up. The winner: Nathan Rhodes, successful businessman and Republican. From the get-go, Governor Rhodes opposes the actions of the federal government. Meanwhile, Ruby Ridge occurs (assume butterflies haven’t eliminated it), outraging both Rhodes, and the citizenry of Idaho – not to mention the ALF and James Roberts.
Now, the moment of truth. It is 1993. James Roberts commands a private army of 800 well-armed militiamen. Nathan Rhodes is the Governor of Idaho. Douglas Latham is the Adjutant General of the Idaho National Guard. The siege of Waco begins. Soon, the ALF is rearmed and on the move. The break the siege on its 36th day. They exchange fire with the ATF and FBI, before escaping. Ten ALF members, however, are captured upon their return to Idaho. They are held in Idaho. Rhodes makes a scene. The populace of the region views these 10 men as near heroes, especially considering how large the government is growing under Kennedy. The prosecutors request a change in venue. They are granted that change to San Francisco. Rhodes is outraged. James Roberts is appointed Attorney General by Rhodes.
He orders the State Police to expel all federal agents from the state of Idaho, saying that the men’s constitutional rights to a fair trial are being violated. The state police expel those federal officers. The National Guard, scared as to the future, are ordered to tighten down on the weapons caches in Idaho. They reluctantly agree, so that the ammunition isn’t stolen by “militia groups.” The US Army lands a battalion of the 82nd Airborne outside of Boise. In the confusion of the landing, a shot erupts from the federal lines. The National Guardsmen open fire nervously. Kennedy attempts to federalize the NG, but Latham ignores the order. Citing the act of aggression, Wyoming and Montana agree to throw federal agents out of their states as well. The National Guards are beginning to become coordinated. Kennedy sends an armored brigade north from Colorado into Wyoming. The column is attacked by armored elements of the NG and by A-10 ground attack fighters of the MALL. In Oregon and Washington, pro-MALL Governors are elected, pleasing the eastern populaces. The two states try to negotiate a peaceful arrangement, but neither side will back down. The two states are forced to choose a side – and lean towards the MALL. Utah and Nevada are leaning that way as well.
Bam. Civil War.
So what do you think? I know its not exactly the most probable outcome, but I think it’s a fairly possible one...
First, I began by forming the conclusion that the best possible time for a rebellion/civil war/confrontation/etc. is the period between 1992 and 1995. Why? Consider the civil strife of the period (Waco, L.A., OK City, Ruby Ridge, etc.); consider the third party success of Ross Perot; and, consider the radical political shift from a Republican government to a Democratic one. So, the time period is nailed down.
Second, I need to choose the states. Well, I figured the best choice would be to choose a combination of the homes of OTL’s militia movements, and the vote percentage for Ross Perot. That leaves us with Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, (eastern) Washington, and (eastern) Oregon. For the sake of convenience, I’m going to call this group the Mountain ALLiance (or MALL; I don’t want to have to rewrite the list again). Now, every alliance needs a leader. For this, I’m going to simply look at a map of the US, and the states of the MALL, and pick the one in the geographic center. That’d be Idaho. So, we have the location nailed down.
Now we need a reason for a conflict. This is by far the most difficult aspect. However, we do have several things we could use. So, I’m going to go with a more organized, larger militia movement. In order to get a larger, better organized militia movement we’re going to need more perceived government oppression. That’s going to require, for these radical right groups, a more liberal (and, therefore, generally larger) government. In other words, we need a different President. I think I have a solution for that, but I’ll hold off for a little later. Now, let’s have them, say, break the siege of Waco. That just may provide the spark I need. Now, before you argue, bare with me for awhile.
Okay, now that we’ve got the bare facts covered, I’ll get into a (somewhat) plausible story...
The year is 1969. This is our POD. On Chappaquiddick Island, Massachusetts, a young Senator Edward Kennedy is driving drunk. He, however, concentrates harder going over the bridge. He instead hits a tree a quarter-mile down the road. Mary Jo Kopechne does not die and is instead just injured, but, because Kennedy was driving drunk, he is temporarily out of the running for the Presidential nomination. He still loses his status as the Majority Whip.
Now, half way around the world, three young men come together for the first time on a military base outside of Nha Trang. Douglas Latham, Nathan Rhodes, and James Roberts, are all members of the U.S. Army and are all from the state of Idaho. In OTL, say, two of them are killed and one loses a leg. In this ATL, not one is even injured. However, Roberts, catches a soldier attempting to “frag” his officer, Nathan Rhodes, and beats the soldier the half to death. Roberts, despite saving the officers life, Roberts is dishonorably discharged in 1971, the same year Rhodes and Latham return home. Rhodes, owing his life to Roberts, vows he will go to any length to help the young man. Upon returning to America, the three men are stunned by the treatment afforded them by the American populace and blame their own government for: A) treating Roberts wrongly, and B) losing the war.
The next decade and a half go almost identically as in OTL for the nation as a whole. For the three men, however, life deals them a series of surprising choices. Douglas Latham, who served with Rhodes throughout the war and is dedicated to the man to the extreme, is of the lower class. He comes home, without an education, and in a cruel twist of fate, the government screws him. He never receives the money to go to college, so he decides to stay in the military (or, at least, the Idaho National Guard). As a full time job, Latham is employed by Rhodes, whose father, a banker, left him truckloads of money. Rhodes happens to have bought a single gun store, which over the two decades, Rhodes builds into one of the largest companies in the state of Idaho, with chains in nearly every city/town with a population over 20,000, as well as several in neighboring states. Rhodes, by the way, turns out to be an excellent orator and politician, in general.
Meanwhile, our friend James Roberts, screwed royally by the U.S. government, creates his own militia organization. Unlike others, however, Roberts is determined to keep his group small. He demands military excellence from all the militiamen. Each unit of the American Liberation Front (ALF) is composed of about 20 men, and is, generally, led by a former regular soldier. By 1990, the ALF is a well-disciplined “ghost army” of about 700 men, mainly from Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. The ALF, surprise, surprise, is well-armed – by weapons from the Rhodes chain of gun stores.
Now, the year is 1991, and two elections are heating up. The first is the Presidential election of 1992. The candidates are: George Bush (R), Ross Perot (Reform), and – Edward Kennedy (D). In 1992, Kennedy will edge by in a squeaker, with Perot splitting the Republican vote. In Idaho, the race for the Governor’s office heats up. The winner: Nathan Rhodes, successful businessman and Republican. From the get-go, Governor Rhodes opposes the actions of the federal government. Meanwhile, Ruby Ridge occurs (assume butterflies haven’t eliminated it), outraging both Rhodes, and the citizenry of Idaho – not to mention the ALF and James Roberts.
Now, the moment of truth. It is 1993. James Roberts commands a private army of 800 well-armed militiamen. Nathan Rhodes is the Governor of Idaho. Douglas Latham is the Adjutant General of the Idaho National Guard. The siege of Waco begins. Soon, the ALF is rearmed and on the move. The break the siege on its 36th day. They exchange fire with the ATF and FBI, before escaping. Ten ALF members, however, are captured upon their return to Idaho. They are held in Idaho. Rhodes makes a scene. The populace of the region views these 10 men as near heroes, especially considering how large the government is growing under Kennedy. The prosecutors request a change in venue. They are granted that change to San Francisco. Rhodes is outraged. James Roberts is appointed Attorney General by Rhodes.
He orders the State Police to expel all federal agents from the state of Idaho, saying that the men’s constitutional rights to a fair trial are being violated. The state police expel those federal officers. The National Guard, scared as to the future, are ordered to tighten down on the weapons caches in Idaho. They reluctantly agree, so that the ammunition isn’t stolen by “militia groups.” The US Army lands a battalion of the 82nd Airborne outside of Boise. In the confusion of the landing, a shot erupts from the federal lines. The National Guardsmen open fire nervously. Kennedy attempts to federalize the NG, but Latham ignores the order. Citing the act of aggression, Wyoming and Montana agree to throw federal agents out of their states as well. The National Guards are beginning to become coordinated. Kennedy sends an armored brigade north from Colorado into Wyoming. The column is attacked by armored elements of the NG and by A-10 ground attack fighters of the MALL. In Oregon and Washington, pro-MALL Governors are elected, pleasing the eastern populaces. The two states try to negotiate a peaceful arrangement, but neither side will back down. The two states are forced to choose a side – and lean towards the MALL. Utah and Nevada are leaning that way as well.
Bam. Civil War.
So what do you think? I know its not exactly the most probable outcome, but I think it’s a fairly possible one...
I wasn't talking at all about the white indentity/supremicist movement. Our Spec Ops community contains some of the best and most honorable men our nation can produce and for the most part they know exactly what they are fighting for. If they see the Federal Government erroding hard won freedoms and generally making a mockery of the Constitution (that requires far more expansion and provocation than Walter Kaufmann's ATL, admittedly), they may feel compelled to act.