Scharnhorst vs. Renown

Adolf Hitler changed his mind many times when it came to the ships of Kriegsmarine. What if he decided the he had to have 38 cm guns on these ships. In 1938 alterations were started delaying completion unto late 1940. These ships would be like IOTL Scharnhorst class with an Atlantic bow an 10 meters long. 3 turrets with two 38 cm SK C/34 guns. Six 53.3 cm torpedo tubes would also be fitted on the deck. In early 1942 the Scharnhorst encounters the HMS Renown while intercepting a convoy. Who would prevail in this encounter? Both ships are armed with 15” guns.
 
In this situation it comes down to the accuracy of the guns and the support either side has. If the seas are not too bad then HMS Renown can get destroyers to lay smoke screen to shield themselves while also dragging Scharnhorst onto the destroyers. HMS Renown would have had other vessels of Force H nearby.
Force H in early 1942 had the following ships.
HMS Eagle carried Fairey Swordfish, Fairey Fulmar and Hawker Hurricanes around this time
HMS Valiant Queen Elizabeth Class Battleship
HMS Coventry C class cruiser
HMS Cairo C class cruiser
With Force H somewhere nearby the task HMS Renown has is to delay and slow down the German Battleship. A single hit into the engineering spaces is a dead ship.
They have a similar number of guns but KM Scharnhorst is better armoured in my opinion.
The British 15 inch may be an old gun but once given effective shells and by WW2 they have become a very mature and respected system, it is a superb gun matched with superb fire control.
Scharnhorst would have radar to range the first two salvo's before shock broke and had proven in the sinking of HMS Courageous that the class had good fire control.

so it comes down to the golden BB of the engagement.
 
In this situation it comes down to the accuracy of the guns and the support either side has. If the seas are not too bad then HMS Renown can get destroyers to lay smoke screen to shield themselves while also dragging Scharnhorst onto the destroyers. HMS Renown would have had other vessels of Force H nearby.
Force H in early 1942 had the following ships.
HMS Eagle carried Fairey Swordfish, Fairey Fulmar and Hawker Hurricanes around this time
HMS Valiant Queen Elizabeth Class Battleship
HMS Coventry C class cruiser
HMS Cairo C class cruiser
With Force H somewhere nearby the task HMS Renown has is to delay and slow down the German Battleship. A single hit into the engineering spaces is a dead ship.
They have a similar number of guns but KM Scharnhorst is better armoured in my opinion.
The British 15 inch may be an old gun but once given effective shells and by WW2 they have become a very mature and respected system, it is a superb gun matched with superb fire control.
Scharnhorst would have radar to range the first two salvo's before shock broke and had proven in the sinking of HMS Courageous that the class had good fire control.

so it comes down to the golden BB of the engagement.
The other factor to take into consideration is that without The Twins it's possible that Weserubung isn't launched due to the KM not feeling confident enough in its strength to do so. Even if it is, the RN won't be sweating about a possible breakout into the Atlantic, meaning that significant forces may be available to move against the sortieing German vessels, and that Renown and her escort will not be drawn away from the approach to Narvik, allowing the landing force to get by. Norway going much better for the British (maybe even resulting in the Germans being repulsed) creates a lot of butterflies in terms of what is available. If Norway still falls, it is also likely that with the Twins completing at roughly the same time as Bismarck they will sortie together from the Baltic for Rheinubung, creating even more butterflies if a side suffers casualties.
 
The other factor to take into consideration is that without The Twins it's possible that Weserubung isn't launched due to the KM not feeling confident enough in its strength to do so. Even if it is, the RN won't be sweating about a possible breakout into the Atlantic, meaning that significant forces may be available to move against the sortieing German vessels, and that Renown and her escort will not be drawn away from the approach to Narvik, allowing the landing force to get by. Norway going much better for the British (maybe even resulting in the Germans being repulsed) creates a lot of butterflies in terms of what is available. If Norway still falls, it is also likely that with the Twins completing at roughly the same time as Bismarck they will sortie together from the Baltic for Rheinubung, creating even more butterflies if a side suffers casualties.
I thought about that can you imagine in late 1942 the Germans sortie all 4 battleships.
 
In a one-on-one in decent weather it’s clearly Scharnhorst. Her shells will penetrate Renown’s armor easily and the opposite is not the case.
Off course, Scharnhorst was a new ship and IOTL’s engagement didn’t have all the issues worked out so bad weather and concussion could damage important equipment. This may change the fight around in favor of Renown.
 
In a one-on-one in decent weather it’s clearly Scharnhorst. Her shells will penetrate Renown’s armor easily and the opposite is not the case.
Off course, Scharnhorst was a new ship and IOTL’s engagement didn’t have all the issues worked out so bad weather and concussion could damage important equipment. This may change the fight around in favor of Renown.
Historical evidence clearly shows the British 15 inch was an excellent gun once the shells got fixed. The Armour of the Class although nothing to be sneezed at is insufficent to claim thar Renown which was well known for good gunnery would be instantly destroyed by the Scharnhorst. HMS Renown got rebuilt very strongly, her armour was improved and at any given range her guns will do considerable damage. The facts are that when the Scharnhorst was fully worked up she fought HMS Renown while in company of her sister and fled. In the process she had her gunnery director disabled and her rear turret knocked out. When the Scharnhorst met with British 14 inch guns her armour failed to keep them out. This is indicative that the 15 inch which surprisingly is a little worse but not by much and that performance changes as to range anyway.

German Battleships had been designed for a North Sea typical visual range battle and as such although they had good accuracy at long range are not wonder weapons. To me the Littorio are a better ship than the Bismarck etc.
I stand by my assertion that the victor in a one on one fight goes to the first golden BB that degrades something in Command, Control and Fire Control. So a hit through the firecontrol of either ship is going to cause problems. A hit that takes a turret out reduces chance of victory massively. A hit crippling engines again changes the dynamic.
 
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