Results of a Russo-Central Powers War

[Rekjavik]

How do you see the results of a war between Germany and Austria Hungary versus only Russia? I recall reading somewhere that the French were initially apprehensive in getting involved in the Serbian affair and it was Germany's greedy demands and implementation of the Schlieffen Plan which guaranteed that a war with Russia would become a global war.

So what if France is kept out and Germany doesn't involve itself in Western Europe. What if the Germans decide to focus on Russia, considered the greatest long-term fear, and leave France and the Low Countries alone. Now this does not hinder France from getting involved later, but let's suppose that by the time France is ready for war Russia's poor situation would become apparent, if it was losing, and involving itself would be counter-productive.

How would such a war turn out? What kind of peace treaty would be drawn up? What would happen to the various combatants and non-combatants in the aftermath of such a war? Is such a war even realistically possible?

 

[Dustin]

The war ends much quicker with the CP carving atty least as many puppets out of Russia as they did in the treaty of Litovsk. Brest-

 

[TRH]

The war ends much quicker with the CP carving atty least as many puppets out of Russia as they did in the treaty of Litovsk. Brest-

This, although Russia's likely to surrender before the point where something like Brest-Litovsk can be exacted.

By the same token, the obviousness of this outcome is exactly why France couldn't sit out of such a war. Why would they, when they'd just be facing Germany later without an ally? There's a reason the alliance system gets blamed for WWI these days, it's because it forces every country in an alliance to participate in the war whether they want to or not. The alternative is just too risky.

Hell, the fact that this line of thinking had been done by all sides means that there's a high chance Germany would invade France regardless of any provocations on their part. They pretty much did so OTL, in fact.

 

[Norbert1980]

There's a reason the alliance system gets blamed for WWI these days, it's because it forces every country in an alliance to participate in the war whether they want to or not. The alternative is just too risky.

Actually thats a simplification. Prior to 1911 the French told the Russians that they would not support Russia IF the casus belli was in the Balkans.

Of course France was ready to declare war prior to 1911/1912 IF Russia was attacked, but not if Russia attacked lets say Austria due to a "Balkan war".
So to make it short: Without French support, no casus belli in the Balkans, and therefore of course no war Russia vs Austria-H.+Germany. Russia was not completly sucidal getting in a war with Germany/Austria-H. alone.

Hell, the fact that this line of thinking had been done by all sides means that there's a high chance Germany would invade France regardless of any provocations on their part. They pretty much did so OTL, in fact.

Why should Germany invade France "without any provocation"? After 1911 the scramble for Africa was over, Germany had afterwards no territorial claims towards France.

 

[TRH]

Actually thats a simplification. Prior to 1911 the French told the Russians that they would not support Russia IF the casus belli was in the Balkans.

Maybe so, but shouldn't diplomatic conversation like that be taken with a grain of salt? The French still have a very, very strong incentive to prevent Russia from falling to the Germans in a war, so they may wind up going through with it regardless. Britain under Gray was similarly cagey about its foreign commitments at this time, but that didn't keep them out of the war.

Of course France was ready to declare war prior to 1911/1912 IF Russia was attacked, but not if Russia attacked lets say Austria due to a "Balkan war".
So to make it short: Without French support, no casus belli in the Balkans, and therefore of course no war Russia vs Austria-H.+Germany. Russia was not completly sucidal getting in a war with Germany/Austria-H. alone.

Um, I'm not sure how any of these suppositions relate to the OP at all. The way it's worded clearly implies a 1914 POD.

Why should Germany invade France "without any provocation"? After 1911 the scramble for Africa was over, Germany had afterwards no territorial claims towards France.

Sure, but why shouldn't they? No matter how their scrap with the Russians goes, they'll still have to keep considerable troops on the border anyways, and if the French fail to mobilize for some reason, sucks to be them. Moreover, just because we know now that the French weren't enthused about getting entangled in the Balkans doesn't mean the Germans knew that in 1914, they'd likely assume that the French and Russians were cooperating much more closely than they in fact were. At any rate, the French can either mobilize or not. If they mobilize, then that will confirm German suspicions, and they'll feel that they have no choice but to implement Schlieffen. If they don't, then they'll seem quite vulnerable and the Germans may implement Schlieffen anyways because when are they getting a better opportunity?

 

[Norbert1980]

At any rate, the French can either mobilize or not. If they mobilize, then that will confirm German suspicions, and they'll feel that they have no choice but to implement Schlieffen. If they don't, then they'll seem quite vulnerable and the Germans may implement Schlieffen anyways because when are they getting a better opportunity?

No doubt about that. If Russia and Frace mobilise, Germany probably would attack France first.

My point is: without a very strong French support prior to a Russian involvement in a Balkan crisis, Russian wont mobilize/risk war with Austria-H. AND Germany.

Of course if Germany doesnt support Austria during a crisis, that there is also no further escalation.

==> no "Great war"

There simply wasnt any realistic Russia vs. CPs alone scenario, at least not in/around 1914.....in the middle term anything might happen (lets say if Russia becomes (or at least feels) very strong and the French are very anti-militaristic/left and oppose supporting "Russian aggression" - whatever that might be)

 

[TRH]

There simply wasnt any realistic Russia vs. CPs alone scenario, at least not in/around 1914.....in the middle term anything might happen (lets say if Russia becomes (or at least feels) very strong and the French are very anti-militaristic/left and oppose supporting "Russian aggression" - whatever that might be)

Okay, fair enough. That's basically my assessment, as well.

 

[Falecius]

While based on an earlier POD (Wilhelm II dying in 1888), I recommend the outstanding TL "Es Geloybte Aretz" by Carlton Bach, which deals with this sort of war happening in 1906.
Not exactly the same scenario discussed here (Britain is heavily pro-German and Germany has other allies beside Austria, such as the Netherlands, Sweden and Romania, the casus belli is Poland and not the Balkans, etc.) but it still details a very good scenario for a German-Russian war. For those unwilling to sift through the over 200 pages of that TL, the gist of it so far is that Russians get their asses handed to them, but at a terrible cost.

 

[Bee]

Russia would lose, but the peace terms wouldn't be anywhere near as onerous as Brest-Litovsk.

The War itself might not go as badly. In OTL the Western allies were constantly pressuring Russia to launch another offensive to take the weight off them in France (and Russia obliged every time), with no regard to how able Russia was to do this. ITTL Russia could at least fight the war as it wanted and negotiate an end to it according to its own interests.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

If France sees that Russia is clearly losing, it will call on Britain to mediate a peace (France will not be able to do it as Germany won't listen to the arch enemy). Both France and Britain can't allow Russia to be weakend too much - Germany will recognize this. The question is which terms ARE acceptable to both sides.

Poland independent? - this is probably something NEITHER Germany, Russia and A-H really want (if part of POland goes independent it ultimately will lead to the Austrian and GErman Poles want to join the free Poland.

I can see aborder strip from Poland, but not much more

 

[Norbert1980]

I can see aborder strip from Poland, but not much more

What about the Baltic? I guess that would be more alluring to Germany than parts from Russian-Poland.

But its very difficult to find a scenario where the CPs fight against Russia alone.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

What about the Baltic? I guess that would be more alluring to Germany than parts from Russian-Poland.

But its very difficult to find a scenario where the CPs fight against Russia alone.

The Baltics are too vital for Russia to let go - and France and Britain will likely back this). A "winning" Austria might also want a share - but don't know what .- maybe congress Poland is ddivided between GErmany and Austria (former gets lion share).