Powerful Indonesia

In OTL, Indonesia is a country that's shaken up in more ways then one. It has poverty, conflict and natural disasters. On the other hand, Japan is an well-off and rich American ally, the second largest economy and a major world power.

But what if their roles were reversed?

For OTL, the Dutch found a weak fractured Indonesia easy to exploit, since the fall of the Majapahit empire.
But say Indonesia remained unified. For this, it would have to form a strong national character (like Han China assimilating Manchus, Mongols etc.)
Perhaps a tolerant Indianized Hindu/Buddhist culture with Islamic influences.

When Indonesia meets up with the Dutch, it is strong, innovative and eager to learn of Western technology. Because of this, it can avoid the fate of being colonized and keep up.
On the other hand, Japan isn't so lucky. The archipelago is an isolated backwater, colonized and ruthless carved up by the Spanish, Portuguese and Dutch.

Now, to take this analogy further, when the 1850's to 1900's rolls along, Indonesia is an expansionistic empire with zealous national character. It colonizes Indo-China, Malaysia, Phillipines, as well as Southern China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. The Indonesians dare challenge Britain, France and the other Western powers by attacking their colonies. It is authoritarian and demands total loyalty of its citizens to die in a kamikaze/jihad fashion. It is dragged (in some analogue of WWII's pacific theatre) into war with the USA as well when it colonizes the Pacific and launches a surprise attack Pearl harbor style. After a difficult fight, the USA decides to end it by dropping two Atomic bombs on Aceh and Yogyakarta. Indonesia is shamed and reluctantly surrenders and adopts democracy.
By the time the latter part of the 20th century, Indonesia industrializes at an incredible rate until it ends up the second largest economy and a vital trading partner and ally of America. The superpowered South-east asian archipelago also has considerable influences on global culture. Hinduism, Buddhism and a more temperate (relative to OTL) Islam co-exist here. It's cultural sphere expands from not only Southeast Asia and Indo-China but also Hawaii, Polynesia, Southern China, Taiwan and parts of Japan (the Ryukyu islands). Indonesian overseas communities exist in not only the USA but Canada, Latin America and the Carribean and are seen as a "model minority".

On the other hand, TTL's Mainland East Asia as well as Japan, is a third world region akin to Sub-saharan Africa; poverty-stricken, diseased land with natural disaster, political unrest and little world influence. Very few Westerners have heard of chopsticks, kung fu or ninjas.

In 2006, a tsunami is caused by an earthquake with its epicenter near Tokyo devastates Japan, Korea, Taiwan and coastal China. The wealthy Indonesia sympathizes with them and eagerly offers financial aid to help rebuil it.


Could this scenario have been plausible?
 
You would need some kind of POD 15~2000 years ago that unites the islands for long enuff for a sense of nationality to develop.
even today two generations after the Union, the individual Islands maintain a lot of Cultural Separateness.
 
A strong Indonesia threatens European interests more than a strong Japan did. For one, the British Empire is focused around the Indian Ocean, and that's where Indonesia is. That puts India, Australia, even the Cape in danger if the Indonesians where to get too strong. French Indochina was, for most of its history, too far for Japan to reach, but it's just on the doorstep of *Indonesia. Plus, it's parked right at the doorstep of the Philipines, drawing first Spanish and then American annoyance.

And then you have the colonization of southern China, which will draw the ire of all major powers. If *Indonesia was to get this far, it will have to be crushed before it can put a stranglehold on all those tea, opium, etc markets.
 
A strong Indonesia threatens European interests more than a strong Japan did. For one, the British Empire is focused around the Indian Ocean, and that's where Indonesia is. That puts India, Australia, even the Cape in danger if the Indonesians where to get too strong. French Indochina was, for most of its history, too far for Japan to reach, but it's just on the doorstep of *Indonesia. Plus, it's parked right at the doorstep of the Philipines, drawing first Spanish and then American annoyance.

And then you have the colonization of southern China, which will draw the ire of all major powers. If *Indonesia was to get this far, it will have to be crushed before it can put a stranglehold on all those tea, opium, etc markets.

A strong Indonesia would threaten European markets...... Must assimilate, must subjugate....... Thats my Borg impression. No way indonesia can be a bully at that time. In the long haul, they would be wise to make themselves the transhipment point for the goods that Europe craves, later they will become very important due to Raw materials, esp. Oil.
 
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